Ultra Detailed Player Audit - 20260505

Player-by-player trace from JSON pipeline. Metric-by-metric comparison without wide horizontal table dependency.

Windows shown explicitly: Team recent form = latest 10 games from enhanced analysis. Player historical helpers = 75 games; balancing rates = 162 games (as implemented in services).

Color guide: Red = final above baseline, Blue = final below baseline, Green = no difference.

20260505_ATL@SEA 20260505_BAL@MIA 20260505_BOS@DET 20260505_CHW@LAA 20260505_CIN@CHC 20260505_CLE@KC 20260505_LAD@HOU 20260505_MIL@STL 20260505_MIN@WAS 20260505_NYM@COL 20260505_OAK@PHI 20260505_PIT@ARI 20260505_SD@SF 20260505_TEX@NYY 20260505_TOR@TB

20260505_ATL@SEA

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 2, "confidence": 0.6615103043084649, "home_win_probability": 0.3384896956915351, "away_win_probability": 0.6615103043084649, "predicted_score_text": "ATL 5 - 2 SEA", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "predicted_score_text": "ATL 4 - 2 SEA", "confidence": 0.6615103043084649, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "ATL 4 - 2 SEA", "winner": "ATL"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "ATL 5 - 2 SEA", "winner": "ATL"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 1, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 1, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Factors Considered: Historical team performance, Recent form (latest 10 games), Head-to-head matchup history, Player-level statistics, Recent 10-game performance trends, Pitcher recent form analysis, Team hitting/pitching streaks, Low-score probability modeling, Environmental factors, Home field advantage, Game timing factors, Seasonal adjustments, Machine learning models

Away Team: ATL

Ozzie Albies (645277) · BATTER · 2B · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 36

All-history rows before 20260505: 36

System season_avg: 0.3310

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3309

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.222	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.222	0.000	0.778	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.861	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.861	4.000	1.139	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.403	0.200	0.200	Hitting_AVG	0.331	0.250	-0.131	-0.050
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_H	1.410	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.278	1.000	-0.278	0.000
predicted_HR	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.222	1.000	-0.222	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.458	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.381	0.250	-0.181	-0.050
predicted_R	0.778	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.778	1.000	-0.778	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.620	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.639	1.000	-0.639	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.720	0.400	0.400	Hitting_SLG	0.561	1.000	-0.161	-0.600
predicted_SO	0.500	3.000	3.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	1.000	2.500	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.222	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.861	-
predicted_AVG	0.403	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	1.410	-
predicted_HR	0.220	-
predicted_OBP	0.458	-
predicted_R	0.778	-
predicted_RBI	0.620	-
predicted_SLG	0.720	-
predicted_SO	0.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.396	0.174
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.829	-0.032
predicted_AVG	0.403	0.000
predicted_BB	0.449	0.116
predicted_H	1.492	0.082
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.233	0.013
predicted_OBP	0.458	0.000
predicted_R	0.952	0.174
predicted_RBI	0.658	0.038
predicted_SLG	0.720	0.000
predicted_SO	0.425	-0.075

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.86), rates preserved: AVG=0.386 HR/AB=0.060

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	2.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	3.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.861

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	8.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	3.000	2.000	0.4211	0.4783	0.7368	0.4210	0.0526	0.1579	0.1579	0.1053
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	16.000	5.000	3.000	8.000	10.000	5.000	3.000	0.4211	0.4773	0.7895	0.4210	0.0790	0.2105	0.1316	0.0790
season	0.20	36	-	139.000	46.000	8.000	8.000	23.000	28.000	12.000	18.000	0.3309	0.3806	0.5612	0.3309	0.0575	0.1655	0.0863	0.1295

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4900
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8120
predicted_AVG	0.4031
predicted_BB	0.5120
predicted_H	1.5360
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.2400
predicted_OBP	0.4584
predicted_R	1.0460
predicted_RBI	0.6780
predicted_SLG	0.7201
predicted_SO	0.3850

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2220	0.4900	0.3962	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8610	3.8120	3.8291	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.4030	0.4031	0.4031	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.5120	0.4494	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.4100	1.5360	1.4919	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2200	0.2400	0.2330	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4580	0.4584	0.4583	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7780	1.0460	0.9522	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6200	0.6780	0.6577	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.7200	0.7201	0.7201	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5000	0.3850	0.4253	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.331

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260504_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	645277
playerID	645277
playerName	Ozzie Albies
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	ATL
teamID	2

Jorge Mateo (622761) · BATTER · SS · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 13

All-history rows before 20260505: 13

System season_avg: 0.2930

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2927

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.154	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.154	3.000	0.846	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.297	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.293	0.333	-0.293	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_H	0.700	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.923	1.000	-0.923	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.311	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.326	0.333	-0.326	-0.333
predicted_R	0.692	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.692	0.000	-0.692	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.231	1.000	-0.231	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.470	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.415	0.333	-0.415	-0.333
predicted_SO	1.077	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.077	1.000	-1.077	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.154	-
predicted_AVG	0.297	-
predicted_BB	0.154	-
predicted_H	0.700	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.311	-
predicted_R	0.692	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.470	-
predicted_SO	1.077	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.155	0.001
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.259	0.105
predicted_AVG	0.297	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.098	-0.056
predicted_H	0.885	0.185
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.125	0.025
predicted_OBP	0.311	-0.000
predicted_R	0.645	-0.047
predicted_RBI	0.298	0.058
predicted_SLG	0.470	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.061	-0.016

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.26), rates preserved: AVG=0.272 HR/AB=0.038

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, BvP AVG=0.250)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	0.000	5.000	0.2941	0.2941	0.5294	0.2941	0.0588	0.1177	0.0000	0.2941
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	1.000	11.000	0.3030	0.3235	0.4242	0.3030	0.0303	0.0909	0.0303	0.3333
season	0.20	13	-	41.000	12.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	9.000	2.000	14.000	0.2927	0.3256	0.4146	0.2927	0.0244	0.0732	0.0488	0.3415

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1550
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.3160
predicted_AVG	0.2969
predicted_BB	0.0680
predicted_H	0.9850
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1390
predicted_OBP	0.3107
predicted_R	0.6200
predicted_RBI	0.3300
predicted_SLG	0.4696
predicted_SO	1.0520

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1540	0.1550	0.1547	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1540	3.3160	3.2593	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2970	0.2969	0.2969	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1540	0.0680	0.0981	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7000	0.9850	0.8852	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1390	0.1254	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3110	0.3107	0.3108	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6920	0.6200	0.6452	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2400	0.3300	0.2985	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4700	0.4696	0.4697	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0770	1.0520	1.0608	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.293

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260504_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	622761
playerID	622761
playerName	Jorge Mateo
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	ATL
teamID	2

Mike Yastrzemski (573262) · BATTER · RF · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 25

All-history rows before 20260505: 25

System season_avg: 0.2000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.160	0.000	-0.160	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.600	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.600	4.000	-0.600	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.205	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.200	0.250	0.133	0.083
predicted_BB	0.280	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.280	0.000	0.720	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.570	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.720	1.000	0.280	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.218	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.265	0.250	0.235	0.250
predicted_R	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.240	0.000	-0.240	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.257	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.244	0.250	0.089	0.083
predicted_SO	0.920	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.920	0.000	-0.920	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.160	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.600	-
predicted_AVG	0.205	-
predicted_BB	0.280	-
predicted_H	0.570	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.218	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.160	-
predicted_SLG	0.257	-
predicted_SO	0.920	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.181	0.021
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.636	0.036
predicted_AVG	0.205	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.135	-0.145
predicted_H	0.686	0.116
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.218	-0.000
predicted_R	0.344	-0.056
predicted_RBI	0.191	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.257	0.000
predicted_SO	0.778	-0.142

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.64), rates preserved: AVG=0.189 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	0.2105	0.2105	0.2632	0.2105	0.0526	0.0000	0.1579
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.000	7.000	0.2000	0.2000	0.2571	0.2000	0.0571	0.0000	0.2000
season	0.20	25	-	90.000	18.000	4.000	6.000	10.000	7.000	23.000	0.2000	0.2653	0.2444	0.2000	0.0667	0.0778	0.2556

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1920
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6550
predicted_AVG	0.2047
predicted_BB	0.0570
predicted_H	0.7480
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.2178
predicted_R	0.3140
predicted_RBI	0.2080
predicted_SLG	0.2573
predicted_SO	0.7020

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1600	0.1920	0.1808	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6000	3.6550	3.6357	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2050	0.2047	0.2048	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2800	0.0570	0.1351	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5700	0.7480	0.6857	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2180	0.2178	0.2179	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.3140	0.3441	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1600	0.2080	0.1912	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2570	0.2573	0.2572	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9200	0.7020	0.7783	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.2

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260504_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	573262
playerID	573262
playerName	Mike Yastrzemski
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	ATL
teamID	2

Dominic Smith (642086) · BATTER · DH · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 17

All-history rows before 20260505: 17

System season_avg: 0.3730

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3729

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.118	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.471	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.471	4.000	0.529	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.351	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.373	0.250	-0.123	0.000
predicted_BB	0.118	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.990	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.294	1.000	-0.294	0.000
predicted_HR	0.150	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.235	0.000	0.765	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.373	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.397	0.250	-0.147	0.000
predicted_R	0.647	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.647	1.000	0.353	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.580	3.000	3.000	Hitting_RBI	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.542	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.610	0.250	0.390	0.750
predicted_SO	0.353	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.353	0.000	0.647	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.118	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.471	-
predicted_AVG	0.351	-
predicted_BB	0.118	-
predicted_H	0.990	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.373	-
predicted_R	0.647	-
predicted_RBI	0.580	-
predicted_SLG	0.542	-
predicted_SO	0.353	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.104	-0.014
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.678	0.207
predicted_AVG	0.351	0.000
predicted_BB	0.058	-0.060
predicted_H	1.212	0.222
predicted_HBP	0.134	-
predicted_HR	0.188	0.038
predicted_OBP	0.373	0.000
predicted_R	0.546	-0.101
predicted_RBI	0.712	0.132
predicted_SLG	0.542	0.000
predicted_SO	0.299	-0.054

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.330 HR/AB=0.051

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	3.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	0.3000	0.3333	0.4500	0.3000	0.0500	0.1000	0.0000	0.0500
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	15.000	2.000	2.000	11.000	5.000	0.000	3.000	0.4054	0.4103	0.6216	0.4054	0.0541	0.2973	0.0000	0.0811
season	0.20	17	-	59.000	22.000	2.000	4.000	17.000	11.000	2.000	6.000	0.3729	0.3968	0.6102	0.3729	0.0678	0.2881	0.0339	0.1017

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0970
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7890
predicted_AVG	0.3515
predicted_BB	0.0260
predicted_H	1.3320
predicted_HBP	0.1340
predicted_HR	0.2080
predicted_OBP	0.3730
predicted_R	0.4910
predicted_RBI	0.7830
predicted_SLG	0.5421
predicted_SO	0.2700

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1180	0.0970	0.1043	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4710	3.7890	3.6777	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3510	0.3515	0.3513	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1180	0.0260	0.0582	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9900	1.3320	1.2123	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1340	0.1340	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.2080	0.1877	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3730	0.3730	0.3730	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6470	0.4910	0.5456	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5800	0.7830	0.7119	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5420	0.5421	0.5421	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3530	0.2700	0.2990	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.373

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260424_PHI@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	642086
playerID	642086
playerName	Dominic Smith
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	ATL
teamID	2

Drake Baldwin (686948) · BATTER · C · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 36

All-history rows before 20260505: 36

System season_avg: 0.3130

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3129

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.139	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.139	0.000	-0.139	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.083	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.083	4.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.325	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.313	0.250	-0.063	0.000
predicted_BB	0.444	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.444	1.000	0.556	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.220	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.278	1.000	-0.278	0.000
predicted_HR	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.421	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.392	0.400	0.008	0.000
predicted_R	0.917	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.917	1.000	0.083	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.810	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.833	1.000	-0.833	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.587	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.531	1.000	-0.281	-0.750
predicted_SO	0.889	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.889	0.000	0.111	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.139	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.083	-
predicted_AVG	0.325	-
predicted_BB	0.444	-
predicted_H	1.220	-
predicted_HR	0.280	-
predicted_OBP	0.421	-
predicted_R	0.917	-
predicted_RBI	0.810	-
predicted_SLG	0.587	-
predicted_SO	0.889	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.148	0.009
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.040	-0.043
predicted_AVG	0.325	0.000
predicted_BB	0.502	0.058
predicted_H	1.276	0.056
predicted_HBP	0.142	-
predicted_HR	0.293	0.013
predicted_OBP	0.421	0.000
predicted_R	0.751	-0.166
predicted_RBI	0.844	0.034
predicted_SLG	0.587	0.000
predicted_SO	0.983	0.094

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.08), rates preserved: AVG=0.312 HR/AB=0.072

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 4.083

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	7.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	0.3500	0.4583	0.7000	0.3500	0.1000	0.2500	0.1500	0.3000
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	12.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	6.000	5.000	9.000	0.3000	0.3913	0.4750	0.3000	0.0500	0.1750	0.1250	0.2250
season	0.20	36	-	147.000	46.000	5.000	9.000	30.000	33.000	16.000	32.000	0.3129	0.3916	0.5306	0.3129	0.0612	0.2041	0.1088	0.2177

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1530
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.0170
predicted_AVG	0.3251
predicted_BB	0.5340
predicted_H	1.3060
predicted_HBP	0.1420
predicted_HR	0.3000
predicted_OBP	0.4215
predicted_R	0.6620
predicted_RBI	0.8620
predicted_SLG	0.5874
predicted_SO	1.0330

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1390	0.1530	0.1481	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0830	4.0170	4.0401	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3250	0.3251	0.3251	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4440	0.5340	0.5025	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2200	1.3060	1.2759	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1420	0.1420	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2800	0.3000	0.2930	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4210	0.4215	0.4213	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.9170	0.6620	0.7512	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8100	0.8620	0.8438	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5870	0.5874	0.5873	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8890	1.0330	0.9826	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.313

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260504_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	686948
playerID	686948
playerName	Drake Baldwin
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	ATL
teamID	2

Matt Olson (621566) · BATTER · 1B · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 36

All-history rows before 20260505: 36

System season_avg: 0.3000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.417	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.417	0.000	-0.417	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.889	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.889	3.000	0.111	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.301	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.300	0.333	-0.050	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.556	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.556	1.000	0.444	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.070	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.167	1.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_HR	0.480	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.408	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.383	0.500	0.017	-0.100
predicted_R	0.917	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.917	1.000	-0.917	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.840	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.889	1.000	-0.889	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.815	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.664	1.333	-0.414	-1.083
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.417	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.889	-
predicted_AVG	0.301	-
predicted_BB	0.556	-
predicted_H	1.070	-
predicted_HR	0.480	-
predicted_OBP	0.408	-
predicted_R	0.917	-
predicted_RBI	0.840	-
predicted_SLG	0.815	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.408	-0.009
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.820	-0.069
predicted_AVG	0.301	0.000
predicted_BB	0.661	0.105
predicted_H	1.115	0.045
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.501	0.021
predicted_OBP	0.408	0.000
predicted_R	1.042	0.125
predicted_RBI	0.872	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.815	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.791	-0.209

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.89), rates preserved: AVG=0.287 HR/AB=0.129

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	-1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.889

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	6.000	4.000	3.000	0.2632	0.3913	0.8421	0.2632	0.1579	0.2105	0.2105	0.1579
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	13.000	4.000	5.000	10.000	11.000	7.000	6.000	0.3514	0.4444	0.8649	0.3513	0.1351	0.2703	0.1892	0.1622
season	0.20	36	-	140.000	42.000	15.000	12.000	32.000	33.000	20.000	36.000	0.3000	0.3827	0.6643	0.3000	0.0857	0.2286	0.1429	0.2571

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4030
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7830
predicted_AVG	0.3014
predicted_BB	0.7170
predicted_H	1.1400
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.5130
predicted_OBP	0.4082
predicted_R	1.1090
predicted_RBI	0.8890
predicted_SLG	0.8145
predicted_SO	0.6780

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.4170	0.4030	0.4079	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8890	3.7830	3.8201	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3010	0.3014	0.3013	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5560	0.7170	0.6606	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0700	1.1400	1.1155	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.4800	0.5130	0.5014	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4080	0.4082	0.4081	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.9170	1.1090	1.0418	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8400	0.8890	0.8719	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.8150	0.8145	0.8147	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.6780	0.7907	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.3

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260504_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	621566
playerID	621566
playerName	Matt Olson
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	ATL
teamID	2

Austin Riley (663586) · BATTER · 3B · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 35

All-history rows before 20260505: 35

System season_avg: 0.2160

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2164

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.171	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.829	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.829	4.000	1.171	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.252	0.200	0.200	Hitting_AVG	0.216	0.500	-0.016	-0.300
predicted_BB	0.371	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.371	0.000	-0.371	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.829	2.000	0.171	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	1.000	-0.143	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.287	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.293	0.500	-0.093	-0.300
predicted_R	0.543	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.543	1.000	0.457	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.660	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.629	1.000	0.371	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.086	0.000	-0.086	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.491	0.200	0.200	Hitting_SLG	0.373	1.250	-0.173	-1.050
predicted_SO	1.114	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.114	0.000	-0.114	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.829	-
predicted_AVG	0.252	-
predicted_BB	0.371	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.230	-
predicted_OBP	0.287	-
predicted_R	0.543	-
predicted_RBI	0.660	-
predicted_SLG	0.491	-
predicted_SO	1.114	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.105	-0.066
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.791	-0.038
predicted_AVG	0.252	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.259	-0.112
predicted_H	0.893	0.103
predicted_HBP	0.047	-
predicted_HR	0.261	0.031
predicted_OBP	0.287	0.000
predicted_R	0.585	0.042
predicted_RBI	0.741	0.081
predicted_SLG	0.491	0.000
predicted_SO	1.403	0.289

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.233 HR/AB=0.068

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.829

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	6.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	1.000	9.000	0.3158	0.3333	0.6316	0.3158	0.1053	0.2632	0.0526	0.4737
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	7.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	1.000	15.000	0.1892	0.2250	0.3784	0.1892	0.0541	0.1622	0.0270	0.4054
season	0.20	35	-	134.000	29.000	6.000	5.000	22.000	19.000	13.000	39.000	0.2164	0.2933	0.3731	0.2164	0.0373	0.1642	0.0970	0.2910

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0690
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7710
predicted_AVG	0.2516
predicted_BB	0.1980
predicted_H	0.9490
predicted_HBP	0.0470
predicted_HR	0.2780
predicted_OBP	0.2874
predicted_R	0.6070
predicted_RBI	0.7840
predicted_SLG	0.4913
predicted_SO	1.5580

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1710	0.0690	0.1047	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8290	3.7710	3.7913	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2520	0.2516	0.2517	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3710	0.1980	0.2586	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	0.9490	0.8933	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0470	0.0470	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2300	0.2780	0.2612	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2870	0.2874	0.2873	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5430	0.6070	0.5846	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6600	0.7840	0.7406	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4910	0.4913	0.4912	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1140	1.5580	1.4026	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.216

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260504_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	663586
playerID	663586
playerName	Austin Riley
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	ATL
teamID	2

Mauricio Dubón (643289) · BATTER · CF · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 34

All-history rows before 20260505: 34

System season_avg: 0.2580

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2581

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.235	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_3B	0.059	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_AB	3.647	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.647	4.000	-0.647	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.197	0.667	0.667	Hitting_AVG	0.258	0.000	0.409	0.667
predicted_BB	0.265	2.000	2.000	Hitting_BB	0.265	0.000	1.735	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_H	0.620	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.941	0.000	1.059	2.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.312	0.800	0.800	Hitting_OBP	0.319	0.000	0.481	0.800
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.540	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.529	0.000	-0.529	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.326	0.667	0.667	Hitting_SLG	0.403	0.000	0.263	0.667
predicted_SO	0.647	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.647	1.000	-0.647	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.235	-
predicted_3B	0.059	-
predicted_AB	3.647	-
predicted_AVG	0.197	-
predicted_BB	0.265	-
predicted_H	0.620	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.312	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.540	-
predicted_SLG	0.326	-
predicted_SO	0.647	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.136	-0.099
predicted_3B	0.132	0.073
predicted_AB	3.599	-0.047
predicted_AVG	0.197	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.394	0.129
predicted_H	0.674	0.054
predicted_HBP	0.137	-
predicted_HR	0.011	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.312	-0.000
predicted_R	0.471	-0.029
predicted_RBI	0.582	0.042
predicted_SLG	0.326	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.518	-0.129

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.65), rates preserved: AVG=0.185 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	0.1667	0.3182	0.2778	0.1667	0.0000	0.2222	0.1667	0.1111
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	7.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	5.000	4.000	4.000	0.2000	0.3000	0.3429	0.2000	0.0000	0.1143	0.1143	0.1143
season	0.20	34	-	124.000	32.000	8.000	2.000	2.000	18.000	17.000	9.000	22.000	0.2581	0.3185	0.4032	0.2581	0.0161	0.1452	0.0726	0.1774

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0820
predicted_3B	0.1720
predicted_AB	3.5740
predicted_AVG	0.1966
predicted_BB	0.4630
predicted_H	0.7030
predicted_HBP	0.1370
predicted_HR	0.0120
predicted_OBP	0.3119
predicted_R	0.4550
predicted_RBI	0.6040
predicted_SLG	0.3257
predicted_SO	0.4490

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2350	0.0820	0.1356	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0590	0.1720	0.1324	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6470	3.5740	3.5995	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1970	0.1966	0.1967	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2650	0.4630	0.3937	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6200	0.7030	0.6739	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1370	0.1370	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0120	0.0113	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3120	0.3119	0.3119	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4550	0.4708	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5400	0.6040	0.5816	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3260	0.3257	0.3258	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6470	0.4490	0.5183	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.258

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260504_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	643289
playerID	643289
playerName	Mauricio Dubón
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	ATL
teamID	2

Michael Harris II (671739) · BATTER · LF · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 27

All-history rows before 20260505: 27

System season_avg: 0.3040

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3039

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.778	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.778	4.000	1.222	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.328	0.400	0.400	Hitting_AVG	0.304	0.250	0.096	0.150
predicted_BB	0.185	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.185	0.000	-0.185	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.120	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.148	1.000	0.852	1.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.350	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.250	0.067	0.150
predicted_R	0.444	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.444	1.000	0.556	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.620	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.074	0.000	-0.074	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.473	0.400	0.400	Hitting_SLG	0.510	0.250	-0.110	0.150
predicted_SO	0.741	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.741	2.000	1.259	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.778	-
predicted_AVG	0.328	-
predicted_BB	0.185	-
predicted_H	1.120	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.350	-
predicted_R	0.444	-
predicted_RBI	0.620	-
predicted_SLG	0.473	-
predicted_SO	0.741	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.098	-0.013
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.708	-0.070
predicted_AVG	0.328	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.193	0.008
predicted_H	1.174	0.054
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.145	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.350	0.000
predicted_R	0.384	-0.060
predicted_RBI	0.646	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.473	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.764	0.023

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.78), rates preserved: AVG=0.311 HR/AB=0.038

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.2778	0.3000	0.2778	0.2778	0.0000	0.1111	0.0556	0.2778
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	15.000	2.000	3.000	10.000	5.000	2.000	5.000	0.4054	0.4250	0.7027	0.4054	0.0811	0.2703	0.0541	0.1351
season	0.20	27	-	102.000	31.000	3.000	6.000	18.000	12.000	5.000	20.000	0.3039	0.3333	0.5098	0.3039	0.0588	0.1765	0.0490	0.1961

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0910
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6710
predicted_AVG	0.3277
predicted_BB	0.1970
predicted_H	1.2030
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1470
predicted_OBP	0.3504
predicted_R	0.3520
predicted_RBI	0.6600
predicted_SLG	0.4729
predicted_SO	0.7760

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.0910	0.0980	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7780	3.6710	3.7085	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3280	0.3277	0.3278	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1850	0.1970	0.1928	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1200	1.2030	1.1740	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1470	0.1446	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3500	0.3504	0.3503	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4440	0.3520	0.3842	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6200	0.6600	0.6460	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4730	0.4729	0.4729	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7410	0.7760	0.7638	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.304

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260502_ATL@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	671739
playerID	671739
playerName	Michael Harris II
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	ATL
teamID	2

Bryce Elder (693821) · PITCHER · Starter · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 7

All-history rows before 20260505: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.286	1.000	-1.286	-1.000
predicted_IP	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.943	6.000	-0.943	-1.000
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_SO	5.143	5.000	-2.143	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 5.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	30.000	9.000	23.000	11.000	23.000	2.000	2.7000	1.1333	0.3000	0.7667	0.3667	0.7667	0.0667
last_10	0.35	7	43.000	9.000	32.000	13.000	36.000	2.000	1.8837	1.0465	0.2093	0.7442	0.3023	0.8372	0.0465
season	0.20	7	43.000	9.000	32.000	13.000	36.000	2.000	1.8837	1.0465	0.2093	0.7442	0.3023	0.8372	0.0465

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.0140
predicted_ER	1.5200
predicted_ERA	2.2510
predicted_H	4.5850
predicted_HR	0.3380
predicted_IP	6.0790
predicted_SO	4.8960
predicted_WHIP	1.0856

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	2.0140	2.0091	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	1.5200	0.9880	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.2510	2.2510	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	4.5850	3.3303	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.3380	0.2197	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.0000	6.0790	5.7013	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	4.8960	4.2324	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0856	1.0856	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	2
SO	3
HR	0
BF	19
Pitches	84

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	26
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	1.88
Pitching_Flyouts	6
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	6
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	90
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	56
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260430_DET@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	693821
playerID	693821
playerName	Bryce Elder
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	ATL
teamID	2

Aaron Bummer (607481) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 16

All-history rows before 20260505: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.438	0.000	0.562	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.575	0.200	0.425	0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.688	1.000	-0.688	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.333	4.000	8.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	8.3077	2.3077	0.9231	1.8461	0.4615	1.1539	0.6923
last_10	0.35	10	8.000	7.000	14.000	2.000	8.000	4.000	7.8750	2.0000	0.8750	1.7500	0.2500	1.0000	0.5000
season	0.20	16	12.000	7.000	15.000	5.000	11.000	4.000	5.2500	1.6667	0.5833	1.2500	0.4167	0.9167	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3100
predicted_ER	0.6870
predicted_ERA	7.5447
predicted_H	1.3890
predicted_HR	0.4540
predicted_IP	0.8200
predicted_SO	0.8630
predicted_WHIP	2.0718

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.3100	0.9015	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.6870	0.7966	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	7.5447	7.5447	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.3890	1.2529	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.4540	0.2951	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.8200	0.8830	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.8630	0.5610	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	2.0718	2.0718	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	2
SO	0
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	28

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.25
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	607481
playerID	607481
playerName	Aaron Bummer
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ATL
teamID	2

Didier Fuentes (800311) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 5

All-history rows before 20260505: 5

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	2.040	0.200	-1.040	0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	2.400	0.000	-2.400	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	10.667	5.000	9.000	3.000	12.000	1.000	4.2188	1.1250	0.4688	0.8438	0.2812	1.1250	0.0938
last_10	0.35	5	10.667	5.000	9.000	3.000	12.000	1.000	4.2188	1.1250	0.4688	0.8438	0.2812	1.1250	0.0938
season	0.20	5	10.667	5.000	9.000	3.000	12.000	1.000	4.2188	1.1250	0.4688	0.8438	0.2812	1.1250	0.0938

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6000
predicted_ER	1.0000
predicted_ERA	4.2188
predicted_H	1.8000
predicted_HR	0.2000
predicted_IP	2.1330
predicted_SO	2.4000
predicted_WHIP	1.1250

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.6000	1.0900	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.2188	4.2188	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.8000	1.8700	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2000	0.1300	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	2.1330	1.7365	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	2.4000	1.5600	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1250	1.1250	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	2
SO	0
HR	0
BF	7
Pitches	39

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	2
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.22
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	8
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_ATL@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	800311
playerID	800311
playerName	Didier Fuentes
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ATL
teamID	2

Reynaldo López (625643) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 7

All-history rows before 20260505: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.286	0.000	-1.286	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	3.457	1.000	-2.457	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	3.286	1.000	-3.286	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	13.667	7.000	14.000	9.000	17.000	2.000	4.6098	1.6829	0.5122	1.0244	0.6585	1.2439	0.1463
last_10	0.35	7	24.667	9.000	21.000	12.000	23.000	4.000	3.2838	1.3378	0.3649	0.8514	0.4865	0.9324	0.1622
season	0.20	7	24.667	9.000	21.000	12.000	23.000	4.000	3.2838	1.3378	0.3649	0.8514	0.4865	0.9324	0.1622

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.7870
predicted_ER	1.3660
predicted_ERA	3.8805
predicted_H	2.9440
predicted_HR	0.4910
predicted_IP	3.1680
predicted_SO	3.3980
predicted_WHIP	1.4931

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	1.7870	1.1616	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	1.3660	0.8879	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8805	3.8805	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	2.9440	1.9136	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.4910	0.3191	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	3.1680	2.4092	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	3.3980	2.2087	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4931	1.4931	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.28
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_ATL@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	625643
playerID	625643
playerName	Reynaldo López
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ATL
teamID	2

Tyler Kinley (641755) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ATL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 17

All-history rows before 20260505: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.294	2.000	-0.294	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.900	1.000	0.100	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.059	2.000	-0.059	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	4.000	7.000	3.000	8.000	2.000	7.2000	2.0000	0.8000	1.4000	0.6000	1.6000	0.4000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	4.000	8.000	6.000	13.000	2.000	3.6000	1.4000	0.4000	0.8000	0.6000	1.3000	0.2000
season	0.20	17	16.000	5.000	11.000	8.000	18.000	2.000	2.8125	1.1875	0.3125	0.6875	0.5000	1.1250	0.1250

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5730
predicted_ER	0.5560
predicted_ERA	5.0625
predicted_H	1.0350
predicted_HR	0.2720
predicted_IP	0.9880
predicted_SO	1.3840
predicted_WHIP	1.6275

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5730	0.3725	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5560	0.3614	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.0625	5.0625	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0350	0.6727	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2720	0.1768	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9880	0.9922	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.3840	1.2496	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.6275	1.6275	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	2.81
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	23
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L, BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	641755
playerID	641755
playerName	Tyler Kinley
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ATL
teamID	2

Home Team: SEA

Cal Raleigh (663728) · BATTER · DH · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 32

All-history rows before 20260505: 32

System season_avg: 0.1810

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1811

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.969	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.969	4.000	1.031	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.181	0.000	-0.181	0.000
predicted_BB	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_H	0.590	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.719	0.000	-0.719	0.000
predicted_HR	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.219	0.000	-0.219	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.244	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.269	0.200	-0.269	-0.200
predicted_R	0.406	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.406	0.000	-0.406	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.630	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.531	0.000	-0.531	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.477	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.378	0.000	-0.378	0.000
predicted_SO	1.312	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.312	2.000	-0.312	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.969	-
predicted_AVG	0.167	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.590	-
predicted_HR	0.350	-
predicted_OBP	0.244	-
predicted_R	0.406	-
predicted_RBI	0.630	-
predicted_SLG	0.477	-
predicted_SO	1.312	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.083	-0.042
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.008	0.039
predicted_AVG	0.167	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.471	-0.029
predicted_H	0.643	0.053
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.381	0.031
predicted_OBP	0.244	-0.000
predicted_R	0.470	0.064
predicted_RBI	0.683	0.053
predicted_SLG	0.477	0.000
predicted_SO	1.372	0.060

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.01), rates preserved: AVG=0.160 HR/AB=0.095

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.969

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	0.1000	0.1739	0.4000	0.1000	0.1000	0.2000	0.1000	0.4000
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	10.000	1.000	5.000	7.000	7.000	5.000	12.000	0.2439	0.3191	0.6341	0.2439	0.1220	0.1707	0.1220	0.2927
season	0.20	32	-	127.000	23.000	4.000	7.000	17.000	13.000	16.000	42.000	0.1811	0.2690	0.3780	0.1811	0.0551	0.1339	0.1260	0.3307

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0600
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.0290
predicted_AVG	0.1666
predicted_BB	0.4550
predicted_H	0.6710
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.3980
predicted_OBP	0.2437
predicted_R	0.5050
predicted_RBI	0.7110
predicted_SLG	0.4775
predicted_SO	1.4040

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.0600	0.0827	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9690	4.0290	4.0080	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1670	0.1666	0.1667	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.4550	0.4708	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5900	0.6710	0.6427	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3500	0.3980	0.3812	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2440	0.2437	0.2438	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4060	0.5050	0.4704	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6300	0.7110	0.6826	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4770	0.4775	0.4773	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3120	1.4040	1.3718	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.181

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260501_KC@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	663728
playerID	663728
playerName	Cal Raleigh
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	SEA
teamID	25

J.P. Crawford (641487) · BATTER · SS · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 27

All-history rows before 20260505: 27

System season_avg: 0.2110

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2105

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.519	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.519	3.000	1.481	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.262	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.211	0.333	-0.211	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.815	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.815	2.000	-0.815	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_H	0.850	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.741	1.000	-0.741	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.111	1.000	-0.111	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.417	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.370	0.600	-0.370	-0.600
predicted_R	0.593	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.593	1.000	-0.593	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	2.000	-0.333	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.488	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.337	1.333	-0.337	-1.333
predicted_SO	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.519	-
predicted_AVG	0.262	-
predicted_BB	0.815	-
predicted_H	0.850	-
predicted_HR	0.240	-
predicted_OBP	0.417	-
predicted_R	0.593	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.488	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.054	-0.057
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.620	0.101
predicted_AVG	0.262	0.000
predicted_BB	0.888	0.073
predicted_H	0.923	0.073
predicted_HBP	0.051	-
predicted_HR	0.259	0.019
predicted_OBP	0.417	0.000
predicted_R	0.677	0.084
predicted_RBI	0.421	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.488	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.530	-0.137

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.62), rates preserved: AVG=0.255 HR/AB=0.072

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	6.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	5.000	2.000	0.3158	0.4583	0.6316	0.3158	0.1053	0.1579	0.2632	0.1053
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	8.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	7.000	9.000	4.000	0.2222	0.3913	0.3889	0.2222	0.0556	0.0833	0.2500	0.1111
season	0.20	27	-	95.000	20.000	3.000	3.000	9.000	16.000	22.000	18.000	0.2105	0.3697	0.3368	0.2105	0.0316	0.0947	0.2316	0.1895

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0230
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6740
predicted_AVG	0.2620
predicted_BB	0.9270
predicted_H	0.9620
predicted_HBP	0.0510
predicted_HR	0.2690
predicted_OBP	0.4171
predicted_R	0.7220
predicted_RBI	0.4380
predicted_SLG	0.4877
predicted_SO	0.4560

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.0230	0.0538	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5190	3.6740	3.6197	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2620	0.2620	0.2620	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8150	0.9270	0.8878	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8500	0.9620	0.9228	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0510	0.0510	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2400	0.2690	0.2589	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4170	0.4171	0.4171	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5930	0.7220	0.6768	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.4380	0.4212	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4880	0.4877	0.4878	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.4560	0.5298	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.211

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260504_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	641487
playerID	641487
playerName	J.P. Crawford
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	SEA
teamID	25

Randy Arozarena (668227) · BATTER · LF · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 36

All-history rows before 20260505: 36

System season_avg: 0.2730

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2734

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.028	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_AB	3.556	2.000	2.000	Hitting_AB	3.556	3.000	-1.556	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.188	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.273	0.333	-0.273	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.472	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.472	1.000	0.528	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.580	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.972	1.000	-0.972	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.297	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.367	0.500	0.133	0.000
predicted_R	0.667	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.222	1.000	-0.222	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.378	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.430	0.333	-0.430	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.944	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.944	0.000	-0.944	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.028	-
predicted_AB	3.556	-
predicted_AVG	0.188	-
predicted_BB	0.472	-
predicted_H	0.580	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.297	-
predicted_R	0.667	-
predicted_RBI	0.200	-
predicted_SLG	0.378	-
predicted_SO	0.944	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.187	-0.063
predicted_3B	0.036	0.008
predicted_AB	3.498	-0.058
predicted_AVG	0.188	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.517	0.045
predicted_H	0.625	0.045
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.138	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.297	-0.000
predicted_R	0.632	-0.035
predicted_RBI	0.217	0.017
predicted_SLG	0.378	0.000
predicted_SO	1.123	0.179

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.56), rates preserved: AVG=0.176 HR/AB=0.039

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	0.1176	0.2500	0.2941	0.1177	0.0588	0.0588	0.1765	0.3529
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	8.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	5.000	14.000	0.2286	0.3171	0.4571	0.2286	0.0286	0.0571	0.1429	0.4000
season	0.20	36	-	128.000	35.000	9.000	1.000	3.000	12.000	24.000	17.000	34.000	0.2734	0.3667	0.4297	0.2734	0.0234	0.0938	0.1328	0.2656

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1530
predicted_3B	0.0400
predicted_AB	3.4660
predicted_AVG	0.1876
predicted_BB	0.5410
predicted_H	0.6500
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.1430
predicted_OBP	0.2968
predicted_R	0.6130
predicted_RBI	0.2260
predicted_SLG	0.3783
predicted_SO	1.2200

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.1530	0.1870	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0280	0.0400	0.0358	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5560	3.4660	3.4975	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1880	0.1876	0.1877	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4720	0.5410	0.5169	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5800	0.6500	0.6255	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1430	0.1384	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2970	0.2968	0.2969	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6670	0.6130	0.6319	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2000	0.2260	0.2169	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3780	0.3783	0.3782	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9440	1.2200	1.1234	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.273

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260504_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	668227
playerID	668227
playerName	Randy Arozarena
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	SEA
teamID	25

Luke Raley (670042) · BATTER · RF · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 25

All-history rows before 20260505: 25

System season_avg: 0.2620

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2619

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.160	0.000	-0.160	0.000
predicted_3B	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_AB	3.360	2.000	2.000	Hitting_AB	3.360	2.000	-1.360	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.149	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.262	0.500	-0.262	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.200	2.000	2.000	Hitting_BB	0.200	1.000	1.800	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_H	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.880	1.000	-0.880	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	1.000	-0.200	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.216	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.319	0.667	0.181	-0.167
predicted_R	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.400	1.000	-0.400	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.470	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.560	3.000	-0.560	-3.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.364	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.512	2.000	-0.512	-2.000
predicted_SO	1.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.280	0.000	-1.280	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.160	-
predicted_3B	0.040	-
predicted_AB	3.360	-
predicted_AVG	0.149	-
predicted_BB	0.200	-
predicted_H	0.410	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.216	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.364	-
predicted_SO	1.280	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.075	-0.085
predicted_3B	0.018	-0.022
predicted_AB	3.140	-0.220
predicted_AVG	0.149	0.000
predicted_BB	0.228	0.028
predicted_H	0.436	0.026
predicted_HBP	0.014	-
predicted_HR	0.194	0.014
predicted_OBP	0.216	-0.000
predicted_R	0.348	-0.052
predicted_RBI	0.501	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.364	0.000
predicted_SO	1.112	-0.168

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.36), rates preserved: AVG=0.130 HR/AB=0.058

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.1250	0.1765	0.3125	0.1250	0.0625	0.1875	0.0625	0.3125
last_10	0.35	10	-	26.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	9.000	0.1154	0.2069	0.3462	0.1154	0.0769	0.1538	0.1154	0.3462
season	0.20	25	-	84.000	22.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	14.000	10.000	5.000	32.000	0.2619	0.3187	0.5119	0.2619	0.0595	0.1667	0.0595	0.3810

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0290
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.0220
predicted_AVG	0.1490
predicted_BB	0.2430
predicted_H	0.4500
predicted_HBP	0.0140
predicted_HR	0.2020
predicted_OBP	0.2156
predicted_R	0.3200
predicted_RBI	0.5180
predicted_SLG	0.3642
predicted_SO	1.0210

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1600	0.0290	0.0748	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0400	0.0070	0.0185	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3600	3.0220	3.1403	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1490	0.1490	0.1490	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2000	0.2430	0.2279	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4100	0.4500	0.4360	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0140	0.0140	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.2020	0.1943	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2160	0.2156	0.2157	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.3200	0.3480	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.5180	0.5012	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3640	0.3642	0.3641	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2800	1.0210	1.1117	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.262

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260504_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	670042
playerID	670042
playerName	Luke Raley
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	SEA
teamID	25

Cole Young (702284) · BATTER · 2B · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 36

All-history rows before 20260505: 36

System season_avg: 0.2580

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2578

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_3B	0.028	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_AB	3.556	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.556	4.000	0.444	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.230	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.258	0.000	-0.008	0.250
predicted_BB	0.306	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.306	0.000	-0.306	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_H	0.660	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.917	0.000	0.083	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.246	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.324	0.000	-0.074	0.250
predicted_R	0.556	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.556	0.000	-0.556	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.490	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.528	0.000	-0.528	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.322	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.375	0.000	-0.125	0.250
predicted_SO	0.917	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.917	2.000	-0.917	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.028	-
predicted_AB	3.556	-
predicted_AVG	0.230	-
predicted_BB	0.306	-
predicted_H	0.660	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.246	-
predicted_R	0.556	-
predicted_RBI	0.490	-
predicted_SLG	0.322	-
predicted_SO	0.917	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.157	0.045
predicted_3B	0.014	-0.014
predicted_AB	3.741	0.185
predicted_AVG	0.230	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.150	-0.156
predicted_H	0.804	0.144
predicted_HBP	0.047	-
predicted_HR	0.049	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.246	0.000
predicted_R	0.444	-0.113
predicted_RBI	0.598	0.108
predicted_SLG	0.322	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.016	0.099

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.74), rates preserved: AVG=0.215 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	6.000	0.1500	0.1500	0.2000	0.1500	0.0000	0.1500	0.0000	0.3000
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	12.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	8.000	5.000	0.000	10.000	0.3158	0.3250	0.4474	0.3158	0.0263	0.2105	0.0000	0.2632
season	0.20	36	-	128.000	33.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	19.000	20.000	11.000	33.000	0.2578	0.3239	0.3750	0.2578	0.0234	0.1484	0.0859	0.2578

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1810
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.8410
predicted_AVG	0.2296
predicted_BB	0.0660
predicted_H	0.8820
predicted_HBP	0.0470
predicted_HR	0.0530
predicted_OBP	0.2460
predicted_R	0.3830
predicted_RBI	0.6560
predicted_SLG	0.3216
predicted_SO	1.0700

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.1810	0.1565	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0280	0.0060	0.0137	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5560	3.8410	3.7412	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2300	0.2296	0.2297	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3060	0.0660	0.1500	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6600	0.8820	0.8043	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0470	0.0470	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0530	0.0485	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2460	0.2460	0.2460	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5560	0.3830	0.4435	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4900	0.6560	0.5979	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3220	0.3216	0.3217	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9170	1.0700	1.0165	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.258

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260504_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	702284
playerID	702284
playerName	Cole Young
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	SEA
teamID	25

Julio Rodríguez (677594) · BATTER · CF · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 36

All-history rows before 20260505: 36

System season_avg: 0.2680

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2676

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.194	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.944	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.944	4.000	0.056	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.315	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.268	0.250	-0.268	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.361	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.361	1.000	-0.361	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_H	1.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.056	1.000	-1.056	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.348	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.338	0.400	-0.338	-0.400
predicted_R	0.472	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.472	0.000	-0.472	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.620	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.595	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.401	0.250	-0.401	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.944	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.944	0.000	-0.944	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.194	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.944	-
predicted_AVG	0.315	-
predicted_BB	0.361	-
predicted_H	1.140	-
predicted_HR	0.260	-
predicted_OBP	0.348	-
predicted_R	0.472	-
predicted_RBI	0.620	-
predicted_SLG	0.595	-
predicted_SO	0.944	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.241	0.047
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.123	0.179
predicted_AVG	0.315	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.257	-0.104
predicted_H	1.262	0.122
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.289	0.029
predicted_OBP	0.348	-0.000
predicted_R	0.560	0.088
predicted_RBI	0.688	0.068
predicted_SLG	0.595	0.000
predicted_SO	0.850	-0.094

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.12), rates preserved: AVG=0.306 HR/AB=0.070

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.944

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	7.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.3333	0.3636	0.6667	0.3333	0.0952	0.1905	0.0476	0.1905
last_10	0.35	10	-	44.000	14.000	4.000	3.000	8.000	7.000	1.000	7.000	0.3182	0.3333	0.6136	0.3182	0.0682	0.1818	0.0227	0.1591
season	0.20	36	-	142.000	38.000	7.000	4.000	16.000	17.000	13.000	34.000	0.2676	0.3376	0.4014	0.2676	0.0282	0.1127	0.0916	0.2394

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2660
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.2190
predicted_AVG	0.3149
predicted_BB	0.2010
predicted_H	1.3280
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.3050
predicted_OBP	0.3478
predicted_R	0.6070
predicted_RBI	0.7250
predicted_SLG	0.5951
predicted_SO	0.7990

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1940	0.2660	0.2408	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9440	4.2190	4.1227	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3150	0.3149	0.3149	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3610	0.2010	0.2570	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1400	1.3280	1.2622	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2600	0.3050	0.2893	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3480	0.3478	0.3479	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4720	0.6070	0.5597	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6200	0.7250	0.6883	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5950	0.5951	0.5951	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9440	0.7990	0.8498	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.268

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260504_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	677594
playerID	677594
playerName	Julio Rodríguez
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	SEA
teamID	25

Josh Naylor (647304) · BATTER · 1B · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 33

All-history rows before 20260505: 33

System season_avg: 0.2230

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2231

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.091	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.091	1.000	0.909	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.939	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.939	5.000	0.061	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.268	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.223	0.400	0.027	-0.150
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_H	0.960	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.879	2.000	0.121	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.121	0.000	-0.121	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.292	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.287	0.400	-0.037	-0.150
predicted_R	0.242	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.242	0.000	0.758	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.490	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.515	0.000	-0.515	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.121	0.000	-0.121	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.371	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.338	0.600	0.162	-0.100
predicted_SO	0.727	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.727	0.000	0.273	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.091	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.939	-
predicted_AVG	0.268	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.960	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.292	-
predicted_R	0.242	-
predicted_RBI	0.490	-
predicted_SLG	0.371	-
predicted_SO	0.727	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	0.034
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.075	0.136
predicted_AVG	0.268	0.000
predicted_BB	0.207	-0.126
predicted_H	1.060	0.100
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.090	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.292	-0.000
predicted_R	0.208	-0.034
predicted_RBI	0.537	0.047
predicted_SLG	0.371	0.000
predicted_SO	0.765	0.038

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.07), rates preserved: AVG=0.260 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.939

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	0.2381	0.2381	0.2857	0.2381	0.0000	0.0952	0.0000	0.1905
last_10	0.35	10	-	42.000	14.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	4.000	2.000	8.000	0.3333	0.3636	0.5000	0.3333	0.0476	0.1905	0.0476	0.1905
season	0.20	33	-	130.000	29.000	3.000	4.000	17.000	8.000	11.000	24.000	0.2231	0.2867	0.3385	0.2231	0.0308	0.1308	0.0846	0.1846

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1430
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.1480
predicted_AVG	0.2684
predicted_BB	0.1390
predicted_H	1.1130
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0950
predicted_OBP	0.2917
predicted_R	0.1890
predicted_RBI	0.5630
predicted_SLG	0.3713
predicted_SO	0.7850

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0910	0.1430	0.1248	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9390	4.1480	4.0748	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2680	0.2684	0.2683	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.1390	0.2069	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9600	1.1130	1.0595	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0950	0.0897	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2920	0.2917	0.2918	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2420	0.1890	0.2076	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4900	0.5630	0.5374	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3710	0.3713	0.3712	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7270	0.7850	0.7647	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.223

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260504_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	647304
playerID	647304
playerName	Josh Naylor
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	SEA
teamID	25

Leo Rivas (660844) · BATTER · 3B · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 26

All-history rows before 20260505: 26

System season_avg: 0.1380

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1375

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.038	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_3B	0.038	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_AB	3.077	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.077	3.000	0.923	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.093	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.138	0.000	0.362	0.500
predicted_BB	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.220	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.423	0.000	1.577	2.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.276	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.278	0.250	0.222	0.250
predicted_R	0.269	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.269	0.000	0.731	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.030	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.192	0.000	1.808	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.101	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.175	0.000	0.325	0.500
predicted_SO	1.154	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.154	3.000	-0.154	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.038	-
predicted_3B	0.038	-
predicted_AB	3.077	-
predicted_AVG	0.093	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.220	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.276	-
predicted_R	0.269	-
predicted_RBI	0.030	-
predicted_SLG	0.101	-
predicted_SO	1.154	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.018	-0.020
predicted_3B	0.018	-0.020
predicted_AB	3.001	-0.076
predicted_AVG	0.093	0.000
predicted_BB	0.488	-0.012
predicted_H	0.257	0.037
predicted_HBP	0.279	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.276	-0.000
predicted_R	0.379	0.110
predicted_RBI	0.035	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.101	0.000
predicted_SO	1.220	0.066

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.08), rates preserved: AVG=0.084 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	7.000	0.0714	0.3158	0.0714	0.0714	0.0000	0.2143	0.5000
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	11.000	0.0968	0.2222	0.0968	0.0968	0.0000	0.0968	0.3548
season	0.20	26	-	80.000	11.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	7.000	13.000	30.000	0.1375	0.2784	0.1750	0.1375	0.0625	0.1625	0.3750

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0070
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	2.9600
predicted_AVG	0.0935
predicted_BB	0.4820
predicted_H	0.2770
predicted_HBP	0.2790
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.2756
predicted_R	0.4380
predicted_RBI	0.0370
predicted_SLG	0.1010
predicted_SO	1.2560

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0380	0.0070	0.0178	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0380	0.0070	0.0178	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0770	2.9600	3.0009	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.0930	0.0935	0.0933	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.4820	0.4883	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.2200	0.2770	0.2571	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.2790	0.2790	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2760	0.2756	0.2757	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2690	0.4380	0.3789	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0300	0.0370	0.0345	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1010	0.1010	0.1010	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1540	1.2560	1.2203	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.138

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260504_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	660844
playerID	660844
playerName	Leo Rivas
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	SEA
teamID	25

Mitch Garver (641598) · BATTER · C · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 11

All-history rows before 20260505: 11

System season_avg: 0.2060

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2059

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.091	1.000	1.000	Hitting_AB	3.091	3.000	-2.091	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.238	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.206	0.000	-0.206	0.000
predicted_BB	0.909	3.000	3.000	Hitting_BB	0.909	1.000	2.091	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.570	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.636	0.000	-0.636	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.423	0.750	0.750	Hitting_OBP	0.386	0.250	0.364	0.500
predicted_R	0.455	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.455	1.000	-0.455	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.238	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.206	0.000	-0.206	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.091	-
predicted_AVG	0.238	-
predicted_BB	0.909	-
predicted_H	0.570	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.423	-
predicted_R	0.455	-
predicted_RBI	0.110	-
predicted_SLG	0.238	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.089	-0.002
predicted_AVG	0.238	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.973	0.064
predicted_H	0.677	0.107
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.423	-0.000
predicted_R	0.569	0.114
predicted_RBI	0.133	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.238	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.962	-0.038

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.09), rates preserved: AVG=0.219 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	1.000	-2.000
BB	3.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	4.000	0.2667	0.4762	0.2667	0.2667	0.0667	0.4000	0.2667
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	7.000	1.000	5.000	8.000	11.000	0.2188	0.3750	0.2188	0.2188	0.0312	0.2500	0.3438
season	0.20	11	-	34.000	7.000	1.000	5.000	10.000	11.000	0.2059	0.3864	0.2059	0.2059	0.0294	0.2941	0.3235

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.0880
predicted_AVG	0.2378
predicted_BB	1.0080
predicted_H	0.7340
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.4228
predicted_R	0.6300
predicted_RBI	0.1450
predicted_SLG	0.2378
predicted_SO	0.9420

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0910	3.0880	3.0891	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2380	0.2378	0.2379	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.9090	1.0080	0.9733	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5700	0.7340	0.6766	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4230	0.4228	0.4229	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4550	0.6300	0.5688	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1100	0.1450	0.1328	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2380	0.2378	0.2379	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9420	0.9623	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	1
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	3
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.206

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260504_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	641598
playerID	641598
playerName	Mitch Garver
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	SEA
teamID	25

George Kirby (669923) · PITCHER · Starter · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 7

All-history rows before 20260505: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.143	2.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_IP	6.000	6.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	6.229	5.200	-0.229	0.800
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_SO	4.857	5.000	-0.857	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 6.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	33.000	10.000	33.000	6.000	22.000	2.000	2.7273	1.1818	0.3030	1.0000	0.1818	0.6667	0.0606
last_10	0.35	7	45.000	15.000	40.000	11.000	34.000	4.000	3.0000	1.1333	0.3333	0.8889	0.2444	0.7556	0.0889
season	0.20	7	45.000	15.000	40.000	11.000	34.000	4.000	3.0000	1.1333	0.3333	0.8889	0.2444	0.7556	0.0889

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.4070
predicted_ER	2.0800
predicted_ERA	2.8773
predicted_H	6.1080
predicted_HR	0.4960
predicted_IP	6.5060
predicted_SO	4.6550
predicted_WHIP	1.1551

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.4070	1.6145	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.0800	2.0520	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.8773	2.8773	form_only
predicted_H	7.0000	6.1080	6.4202	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.4960	0.3224	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	6.0000	6.5060	6.3289	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	4.6550	4.4258	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1551	1.1551	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	6.0
H	7
R	2
ER	2
BB	2
SO	4
HR	0
BF	27
Pitches	103

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	25
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	3.00
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	8
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.2
Pitching_Pitches	97
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	64
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260429_SEA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	669923
playerID	669923
playerName	George Kirby
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

Andrés Muñoz (662253) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 15

All-history rows before 20260505: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.533	0.000	2.467	3.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.887	1.000	0.113	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.533	2.000	-0.533	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	8.000	0.000	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000	0.8000	0.2000	1.6000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	6.000	10.000	4.000	15.000	1.000	6.0000	1.5556	0.6667	1.1111	0.4444	1.6667	0.1111
season	0.20	15	14.000	8.000	13.000	6.000	23.000	2.000	5.1429	1.3571	0.5714	0.9286	0.4286	1.6429	0.1429

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3150
predicted_ER	0.3310
predicted_ERA	3.1286
predicted_H	0.8890
predicted_HR	0.0640
predicted_IP	0.9520
predicted_SO	1.5530
predicted_WHIP	1.2659

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	0.3150	1.2547	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	0.3310	1.2651	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1286	3.1286	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	0.8890	1.6278	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0640	0.3916	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9520	0.9688	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.5530	1.3594	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2659	1.2659	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	3
R	3
ER	3
BB	3
SO	1
HR	1
BF	9
Pitches	41

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.79
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	662253
playerID	662253
playerName	Andrés Muñoz
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

Eduard Bazardo (660825) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 17

All-history rows before 20260505: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.729	0.200	0.271	0.800
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.706	1.000	1.294	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.667	0.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	0.0000	0.6429	0.0000	0.6429	0.0000	0.6429
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	1.000	6.000	2.000	6.000	1.0000	0.8889	0.1111	0.6667	0.2222	0.6667
season	0.20	17	15.667	2.000	11.000	5.000	12.000	1.1489	1.0213	0.1277	0.7021	0.3191	0.7660

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1300
predicted_ER	0.0590
predicted_ERA	0.5798
predicted_H	0.6100
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	0.9190
predicted_SO	0.6210
predicted_WHIP	0.8047

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1300	0.0845	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0590	0.0384	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.5798	0.5798	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6100	0.3965	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9190	0.9474	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.6210	1.1037	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8047	0.8047	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.15
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	660825
playerID	660825
playerName	Eduard Bazardo
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

Jose A. Ferrer (678606) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SEA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 18

All-history rows before 20260505: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.828	1.100	0.172	-0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.722	1.000	0.278	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	1.000	6.000	1.000	4.000	1.5000	1.1667	0.1667	1.0000	0.1667	0.6667
last_10	0.35	10	11.000	2.000	14.000	2.000	7.000	1.6364	1.4545	0.1818	1.2727	0.1818	0.6364
season	0.20	17	17.000	4.000	22.000	3.000	13.000	2.1176	1.4706	0.2353	1.2941	0.1765	0.7647

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1960
predicted_ER	0.2090
predicted_ERA	1.6713
predicted_H	1.2990
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.1250
predicted_SO	0.7600
predicted_WHIP	1.3282

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1960	0.1274	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2090	0.1358	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.6713	1.6713	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.2990	0.8443	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.1250	1.0813	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.7600	0.8440	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3282	1.3282	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.12
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_ATL@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	678606
playerID	678606
playerName	Jose A. Ferrer
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SEA
teamID	25

20260505_BAL@MIA

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 7, "confidence": 0.7069076360316886, "home_win_probability": 0.7069076360316886, "away_win_probability": 0.2930923639683114, "predicted_score_text": "BAL 3 - 7 MIA", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "predicted_score_text": "BAL 3 - 5 MIA", "confidence": 0.7069076360316886, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "BAL 3 - 5 MIA", "winner": "MIA"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 7, "score_text": "BAL 3 - 7 MIA", "winner": "MIA"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 2, "total_run_delta": 2, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Away Team: BAL

Coby Mayo (691723) · BATTER · 3B · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 25

All-history rows before 20260505: 25

System season_avg: 0.1670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.120	0.000	-0.120	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.360	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.360	4.000	-0.360	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.127	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.167	0.250	0.167	0.083
predicted_BB	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.320	0.000	-0.320	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.330	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.560	1.000	0.440	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.120	0.000	0.880	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.150	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.239	0.250	0.094	0.083
predicted_R	0.320	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.320	0.000	0.680	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.440	0.000	1.560	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.262	1.333	1.333	Hitting_SLG	0.310	0.250	1.024	1.083
predicted_SO	1.080	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.080	1.000	-0.080	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.120	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.360	-
predicted_AVG	0.127	-
predicted_BB	0.320	-
predicted_H	0.330	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.150	-
predicted_R	0.320	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.262	-
predicted_SO	1.080	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.078	-0.042
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.241	-0.119
predicted_AVG	0.127	0.000
predicted_BB	0.173	-0.147
predicted_H	0.378	0.047
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.116	0.016
predicted_OBP	0.150	-0.000
predicted_R	0.239	-0.081
predicted_RBI	0.298	0.038
predicted_SLG	0.262	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.124	0.044

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.36), rates preserved: AVG=0.112 HR/AB=0.034

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	6.000	0.0667	0.0667	0.0667	0.0667	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.4000
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	6.000	1.000	3.000	7.000	4.000	1.000	11.000	0.1818	0.2059	0.4848	0.1818	0.0909	0.2121	0.0303	0.3333
season	0.20	25	-	84.000	14.000	3.000	3.000	11.000	8.000	8.000	27.000	0.1667	0.2391	0.3095	0.1667	0.0357	0.1310	0.0952	0.3214

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0560
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.1770
predicted_AVG	0.1270
predicted_BB	0.0940
predicted_H	0.4030
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1240
predicted_OBP	0.1499
predicted_R	0.1950
predicted_RBI	0.3190
predicted_SLG	0.2616
predicted_SO	1.1470

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1200	0.0560	0.0784	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3600	3.1770	3.2411	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1270	0.1270	0.1270	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3200	0.0940	0.1731	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3300	0.4030	0.3775	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1240	0.1156	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1500	0.1499	0.1499	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3200	0.1950	0.2387	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.3190	0.2984	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2620	0.2616	0.2617	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0800	1.1470	1.1236	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.167

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B-3B
gameID	20260503_BAL@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	691723
playerID	691723
playerName	Coby Mayo
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	BAL
teamID	3

Taylor Ward (621493) · BATTER · LF · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 34

All-history rows before 20260505: 34

System season_avg: 0.2880

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2880

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.382	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.382	0.000	-0.382	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.676	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.676	3.000	0.324	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.201	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.288	0.000	-0.038	0.250
predicted_BB	0.853	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.853	1.000	-0.853	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_H	0.670	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.059	0.000	-0.059	1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.448	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.423	0.250	-0.173	0.000
predicted_R	0.559	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.559	0.000	-0.559	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.353	0.000	-0.353	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.238	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.416	0.000	-0.166	0.250
predicted_SO	0.706	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.706	0.000	-0.706	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.382	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.676	-
predicted_AVG	0.201	-
predicted_BB	0.853	-
predicted_H	0.670	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.448	-
predicted_R	0.559	-
predicted_RBI	0.220	-
predicted_SLG	0.238	-
predicted_SO	0.706	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.196	-0.186
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.185	-0.491
predicted_AVG	0.201	-0.000
predicted_BB	1.144	0.291
predicted_H	0.615	-0.055
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.007	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.448	0.000
predicted_R	0.699	0.140
predicted_RBI	0.202	-0.018
predicted_SLG	0.238	0.000
predicted_SO	0.698	-0.008

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.167 HR/AB=0.002

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	13.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	7.000	4.000	0.0769	0.4000	0.0769	0.0769	0.0000	0.0769	0.5385	0.3077
last_10	0.35	10	-	29.000	9.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	8.000	13.000	5.000	0.3103	0.5238	0.3448	0.3103	0.0000	0.0345	0.4483	0.1724
season	0.20	34	-	125.000	36.000	13.000	1.000	12.000	19.000	29.000	24.000	0.2880	0.4231	0.4160	0.2880	0.0080	0.0960	0.2320	0.1920

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0960
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.9200
predicted_AVG	0.2008
predicted_BB	1.3010
predicted_H	0.5860
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.0050
predicted_OBP	0.4480
predicted_R	0.7750
predicted_RBI	0.1920
predicted_SLG	0.2385
predicted_SO	0.6930

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3820	0.0960	0.1961	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6760	2.9200	3.1846	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2010	0.2008	0.2009	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8530	1.3010	1.1442	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6700	0.5860	0.6154	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0050	0.0067	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4480	0.4480	0.4480	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5590	0.7750	0.6994	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2200	0.1920	0.2018	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2380	0.2385	0.2383	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7060	0.6930	0.6975	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.288

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260503_BAL@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	621493
playerID	621493
playerName	Taylor Ward
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	BAL
teamID	3

Dylan Beavers (687637) · BATTER · DH · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 24

All-history rows before 20260505: 24

System season_avg: 0.2200

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2195

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.417	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.417	4.000	0.583	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.174	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.220	0.250	0.030	0.000
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_H	0.540	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.750	1.000	0.250	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	0.000	0.917	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.245	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.286	0.250	-0.036	0.000
predicted_R	0.417	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.417	1.000	0.583	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.375	0.000	0.625	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.242	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.329	0.250	0.671	0.750
predicted_SO	0.917	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.917	2.000	0.083	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.417	-
predicted_AVG	0.174	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.540	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.245	-
predicted_R	0.417	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.242	-
predicted_SO	0.917	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.102	-0.023
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.440	0.023
predicted_AVG	0.174	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.328	-0.005
predicted_H	0.579	0.039
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.046	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.245	-0.000
predicted_R	0.410	-0.007
predicted_RBI	0.384	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.242	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.131	0.214

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.44), rates preserved: AVG=0.168 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	0.1250	0.2222	0.1250	0.1250	0.0000	0.1250	0.1250	0.4375
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	2.000	12.000	0.2105	0.2500	0.3421	0.2105	0.0263	0.1053	0.0526	0.3158
season	0.20	24	-	82.000	18.000	3.000	2.000	9.000	10.000	8.000	22.000	0.2195	0.2857	0.3293	0.2195	0.0244	0.1098	0.0976	0.2683

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0890
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4530
predicted_AVG	0.1738
predicted_BB	0.3250
predicted_H	0.6000
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0490
predicted_OBP	0.2446
predicted_R	0.4060
predicted_RBI	0.3970
predicted_SLG	0.2418
predicted_SO	1.2470

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.0890	0.1016	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4170	3.4530	3.4404	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1740	0.1738	0.1739	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.3250	0.3278	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5400	0.6000	0.5790	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0490	0.0459	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2450	0.2446	0.2447	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4170	0.4060	0.4099	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.3970	0.3841	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2420	0.2418	0.2419	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9170	1.2470	1.1315	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260504_BAL@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	687637
playerID	687637
playerName	Dylan Beavers
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	BAL
teamID	3

Gunnar Henderson (683002) · BATTER · SS · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 34

All-history rows before 20260505: 34

System season_avg: 0.2080

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2083

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.176	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	4.235	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.235	5.000	-0.235	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.205	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.208	0.200	-0.208	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.353	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.353	0.000	-0.353	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.882	1.000	-0.882	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.265	0.000	-0.265	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.224	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.272	0.200	-0.272	-0.200
predicted_R	0.676	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.676	0.000	-0.676	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.559	0.000	-0.559	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.147	0.000	-0.147	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.339	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.451	0.200	-0.451	-0.200
predicted_SO	1.441	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.441	1.000	-0.441	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.176	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	4.235	-
predicted_AVG	0.205	-
predicted_BB	0.353	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.224	-
predicted_R	0.676	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.339	-
predicted_SO	1.441	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.188	0.012
predicted_3B	0.014	-0.015
predicted_AB	4.298	0.063
predicted_AVG	0.205	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.193	-0.160
predicted_H	0.857	0.057
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.120	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.224	-0.000
predicted_R	0.625	-0.051
predicted_RBI	0.332	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.339	0.000
predicted_SO	1.524	0.083

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.30), rates preserved: AVG=0.199 HR/AB=0.028

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 4.235

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	8.000	0.1818	0.1818	0.2273	0.1818	0.0000	0.0454	0.0000	0.3636
last_10	0.35	10	-	43.000	10.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	8.000	1.000	16.000	0.2326	0.2500	0.4186	0.2326	0.0465	0.0930	0.0233	0.3721
season	0.20	34	-	144.000	30.000	6.000	1.000	9.000	19.000	23.000	12.000	49.000	0.2083	0.2722	0.4514	0.2083	0.0625	0.1319	0.0833	0.3403

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1950
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	4.3320
predicted_AVG	0.2049
predicted_BB	0.1070
predicted_H	0.8880
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1250
predicted_OBP	0.2238
predicted_R	0.5980
predicted_RBI	0.3440
predicted_SLG	0.3391
predicted_SO	1.5680

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1760	0.1950	0.1883	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0060	0.0140	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.2350	4.3320	4.2980	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2050	0.2049	0.2049	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3530	0.1070	0.1931	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.8880	0.8572	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1250	0.1197	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2240	0.2238	0.2239	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6760	0.5980	0.6253	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.3440	0.3321	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3390	0.3391	0.3391	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4410	1.5680	1.5236	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.208

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260504_BAL@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	683002
playerID	683002
playerName	Gunnar Henderson
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	BAL
teamID	3

Colton Cowser (681297) · BATTER · RF · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 19

All-history rows before 20260505: 19

System season_avg: 0.2040

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2037

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.105	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.105	0.000	-0.105	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.842	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.842	2.000	0.158	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.202	0.667	0.667	Hitting_AVG	0.204	0.500	0.463	0.167
predicted_BB	0.421	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.421	2.000	-0.421	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_H	0.460	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.579	1.000	1.421	1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.299	0.667	0.667	Hitting_OBP	0.302	0.750	0.365	-0.083
predicted_R	0.316	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.316	0.000	0.684	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.211	1.000	-0.211	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.248	0.667	0.667	Hitting_SLG	0.241	0.500	0.426	0.167
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.105	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.842	-
predicted_AVG	0.202	-
predicted_BB	0.421	-
predicted_H	0.460	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.299	-
predicted_R	0.316	-
predicted_RBI	0.170	-
predicted_SLG	0.248	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.131	0.026
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.028	0.186
predicted_AVG	0.202	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.433	0.012
predicted_H	0.571	0.111
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.299	-0.000
predicted_R	0.258	-0.058
predicted_RBI	0.213	0.043
predicted_SLG	0.248	0.000
predicted_SO	1.218	0.218

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.03), rates preserved: AVG=0.189 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	0.1875	0.2778	0.2500	0.1875	0.0625	0.1250	0.5000
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	7.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	12.000	0.2188	0.3243	0.2500	0.2188	0.0938	0.1562	0.3750
season	0.20	19	-	54.000	11.000	2.000	4.000	6.000	8.000	19.000	0.2037	0.3016	0.2407	0.2037	0.0741	0.1482	0.3518

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1450
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.1280
predicted_AVG	0.2017
predicted_BB	0.4400
predicted_H	0.6310
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.2988
predicted_R	0.2260
predicted_RBI	0.2370
predicted_SLG	0.2481
predicted_SO	1.3350

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1050	0.1450	0.1310	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8420	3.1280	3.0279	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2020	0.2017	0.2018	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4210	0.4400	0.4334	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4600	0.6310	0.5712	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2990	0.2988	0.2989	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3160	0.2260	0.2575	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1700	0.2370	0.2135	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2480	0.2481	0.2481	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.3350	1.2178	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.204

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260504_BAL@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	681297
playerID	681297
playerName	Colton Cowser
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	BAL
teamID	3

Blaze Alexander (677942) · BATTER · 2B · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 23

All-history rows before 20260505: 23

System season_avg: 0.2130

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2133

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.087	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.087	0.000	-0.087	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.261	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.261	4.000	-0.261	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.294	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.213	0.750	-0.213	-0.750
predicted_BB	0.217	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.217	0.000	-0.217	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.696	3.000	-0.696	-3.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.337	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.272	0.750	-0.272	-0.750
predicted_R	0.348	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.348	0.000	-0.348	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.087	0.000	-0.087	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.130	0.000	-0.130	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.336	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.240	0.750	-0.240	-0.750
predicted_SO	1.087	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.087	0.000	-0.087	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.087	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.261	-
predicted_AVG	0.294	-
predicted_BB	0.217	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.337	-
predicted_R	0.348	-
predicted_RBI	0.100	-
predicted_SLG	0.336	-
predicted_SO	1.087	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.121	0.035
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.346	0.085
predicted_AVG	0.294	0.000
predicted_BB	0.208	-0.009
predicted_H	0.901	0.181
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.337	-0.000
predicted_R	0.272	-0.076
predicted_RBI	0.126	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.336	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.044	-0.043

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.35), rates preserved: AVG=0.269 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.3889	0.4211	0.4444	0.3889	0.0556	0.0556	0.2778
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	10.000	0.2188	0.2647	0.2500	0.2188	0.0312	0.0625	0.3125
season	0.20	23	-	75.000	16.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	5.000	25.000	0.2133	0.2716	0.2400	0.2133	0.0267	0.0667	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1400
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.3920
predicted_AVG	0.2942
predicted_BB	0.2040
predicted_H	0.9980
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.3365
predicted_R	0.2310
predicted_RBI	0.1400
predicted_SLG	0.3355
predicted_SO	1.0210

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0870	0.1400	0.1215	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2610	3.3920	3.3461	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2940	0.2942	0.2941	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2170	0.2040	0.2085	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.9980	0.9007	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3370	0.3365	0.3367	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3480	0.2310	0.2719	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1000	0.1400	0.1260	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3360	0.3355	0.3357	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0870	1.0210	1.0441	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.213

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.75
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260504_BAL@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	677942
playerID	677942
playerName	Blaze Alexander
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	BAL
teamID	3

Pete Alonso (624413) · BATTER · 1B · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 35

All-history rows before 20260505: 35

System season_avg: 0.2150

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2154

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.229	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.229	0.000	-0.229	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.714	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.714	4.000	-0.714	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.215	0.250	-0.215	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.543	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.543	0.000	0.457	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.940	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.800	1.000	-0.800	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.358	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.320	0.250	-0.070	0.000
predicted_R	0.600	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.510	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.638	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.415	0.250	-0.415	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.057	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.057	1.000	-0.057	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.229	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.714	-
predicted_AVG	0.280	-
predicted_BB	0.543	-
predicted_H	0.940	-
predicted_HR	0.310	-
predicted_OBP	0.358	-
predicted_R	0.600	-
predicted_RBI	0.510	-
predicted_SLG	0.638	-
predicted_SO	1.057	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.275	0.046
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.596	-0.118
predicted_AVG	0.280	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.468	-0.075
predicted_H	0.971	0.031
predicted_HBP	0.005	-
predicted_HR	0.319	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.358	0.000
predicted_R	0.767	0.167
predicted_RBI	0.526	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.638	0.000
predicted_SO	0.983	-0.074

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.261 HR/AB=0.086

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=40.0, BvP AVG=0.150)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	6.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	2.000	5.000	0.3529	0.4211	0.8235	0.3529	0.1177	0.1765	0.1177	0.2941
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	8.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	8.000	4.000	8.000	0.2222	0.3000	0.5278	0.2222	0.0833	0.1389	0.1111	0.2222
season	0.20	35	-	130.000	28.000	8.000	6.000	15.000	21.000	19.000	37.000	0.2154	0.3200	0.4154	0.2154	0.0461	0.1154	0.1462	0.2846

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2990
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5330
predicted_AVG	0.2797
predicted_BB	0.4280
predicted_H	0.9880
predicted_HBP	0.0050
predicted_HR	0.3230
predicted_OBP	0.3585
predicted_R	0.8570
predicted_RBI	0.5340
predicted_SLG	0.6384
predicted_SO	0.9430

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2290	0.2990	0.2745	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7140	3.5330	3.5964	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2800	0.2797	0.2798	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5430	0.4280	0.4682	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9400	0.9880	0.9712	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0050	0.0050	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3100	0.3230	0.3185	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3580	0.3585	0.3583	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6000	0.8570	0.7671	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5100	0.5340	0.5256	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6380	0.6384	0.6383	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0570	0.9430	0.9829	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.215

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260504_BAL@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	624413
playerID	624413
playerName	Pete Alonso
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	BAL
teamID	3

Samuel Basallo (694212) · BATTER · C · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 24

All-history rows before 20260505: 24

System season_avg: 0.2220

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2222

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.083	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.750	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.750	4.000	0.250	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.259	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_BB	0.375	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.833	0.000	-0.833	0.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.208	0.000	-0.208	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.285	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.293	0.000	-0.293	0.000
predicted_R	0.417	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.417	0.000	-0.417	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.455	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.411	0.000	-0.411	0.000
predicted_SO	1.083	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.083	1.000	0.917	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.083	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.750	-
predicted_AVG	0.259	-
predicted_BB	0.375	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.285	-
predicted_R	0.417	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.455	-
predicted_SO	1.083	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	0.060
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.916	0.166
predicted_AVG	0.259	0.000
predicted_BB	0.230	-0.145
predicted_H	0.969	0.129
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.187	0.027
predicted_OBP	0.285	0.000
predicted_R	0.353	-0.064
predicted_RBI	0.403	0.053
predicted_SLG	0.455	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.232	0.149

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.92), rates preserved: AVG=0.247 HR/AB=0.048

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	8.000	0.2381	0.2381	0.4286	0.2381	0.0476	0.0952	0.0000	0.3810
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	12.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	2.000	11.000	0.3077	0.3415	0.5128	0.3077	0.0513	0.1282	0.0513	0.2821
season	0.20	24	-	90.000	20.000	2.000	5.000	9.000	10.000	9.000	26.000	0.2222	0.2929	0.4111	0.2222	0.0556	0.1000	0.1000	0.2889

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1760
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.0050
predicted_AVG	0.2593
predicted_BB	0.1520
predicted_H	1.0380
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.2020
predicted_OBP	0.2853
predicted_R	0.3190
predicted_RBI	0.4310
predicted_SLG	0.4546
predicted_SO	1.3130

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0830	0.1760	0.1434	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7500	4.0050	3.9158	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2590	0.2593	0.2592	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3750	0.1520	0.2300	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	1.0380	0.9687	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.2020	0.1873	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2850	0.2853	0.2852	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4170	0.3190	0.3533	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.4310	0.4027	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4550	0.4546	0.4547	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0830	1.3130	1.2325	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.222

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260504_BAL@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	694212
playerID	694212
playerName	Samuel Basallo
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	BAL
teamID	3

Leody Taveras (665750) · BATTER · CF · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 21

All-history rows before 20260505: 21

System season_avg: 0.2900

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2899

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.190	1.000	-0.190	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.048	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_AB	3.286	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.286	3.000	0.714	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.238	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.290	0.333	-0.290	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.667	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_H	0.650	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.952	1.000	-0.952	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.095	0.000	-0.095	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.410	0.500	-0.410	-0.500
predicted_R	0.476	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.476	0.000	-0.476	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.600	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.810	0.000	-0.810	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.416	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.464	0.667	-0.464	-0.667
predicted_SO	0.667	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	1.000	1.333	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.190	-
predicted_3B	0.048	-
predicted_AB	3.286	-
predicted_AVG	0.238	-
predicted_BB	0.667	-
predicted_H	0.650	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.350	-
predicted_R	0.476	-
predicted_RBI	0.600	-
predicted_SLG	0.416	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.174	-0.016
predicted_3B	0.106	0.058
predicted_AB	3.332	0.046
predicted_AVG	0.238	0.000
predicted_BB	0.612	-0.055
predicted_H	0.748	0.098
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.048	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.350	0.000
predicted_R	0.355	-0.121
predicted_RBI	0.692	0.092
predicted_SLG	0.416	0.000
predicted_SO	0.716	0.049

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.33), rates preserved: AVG=0.225 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	0.2500	0.3684	0.4375	0.2500	0.0000	0.1875	0.1875	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	9.000	3.000	5.000	7.000	0.1944	0.2927	0.3611	0.1944	0.0278	0.2500	0.1389	0.1944
season	0.20	21	-	69.000	20.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	17.000	10.000	14.000	14.000	0.2899	0.4096	0.4638	0.2899	0.0290	0.2464	0.2029	0.2029

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1660
predicted_3B	0.1370
predicted_AB	3.3570
predicted_AVG	0.2385
predicted_BB	0.5830
predicted_H	0.8010
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0520
predicted_OBP	0.3501
predicted_R	0.2900
predicted_RBI	0.7420
predicted_SLG	0.4160
predicted_SO	0.7420

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1900	0.1660	0.1744	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0480	0.1370	0.1058	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2860	3.3570	3.3322	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2380	0.2385	0.2383	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6670	0.5830	0.6124	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6500	0.8010	0.7482	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0520	0.0478	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3500	0.3501	0.3501	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4760	0.2900	0.3551	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6000	0.7420	0.6923	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4160	0.4160	0.4160	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.7420	0.7157	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.29

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260504_BAL@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	665750
playerID	665750
playerName	Leody Taveras
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	BAL
teamID	3

Chris Bassitt (605135) · PITCHER · Starter · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 6

All-history rows before 20260505: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.833	1.000	2.167	4.000
predicted_IP	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.433	6.200	-1.433	-3.200
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_SO	2.833	7.000	1.167	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 3.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	23.667	13.000	32.000	10.000	14.000	3.000	4.9437	1.7746	0.5493	1.3521	0.4225	0.5916	0.1268
last_10	0.35	6	28.000	17.000	38.000	14.000	17.000	3.000	5.4643	1.8571	0.6071	1.3571	0.5000	0.6071	0.1071
season	0.20	6	28.000	17.000	38.000	14.000	17.000	3.000	5.4643	1.8571	0.6071	1.3571	0.5000	0.6071	0.1071

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.1850
predicted_ER	2.7290
predicted_ERA	5.2300
predicted_H	6.3630
predicted_HR	0.5450
predicted_IP	4.6970
predicted_SO	2.8190
predicted_WHIP	1.8200

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	4.0000	2.1850	2.8202	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	5.0000	2.7290	3.5239	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.2300	5.2300	form_only
predicted_H	8.0000	6.3630	6.9360	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.5450	0.7043	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.0000	4.6970	4.1030	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	2.8190	3.2323	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.8200	1.8200	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.0
H	8
R	5
ER	5
BB	4
SO	4
HR	1
BF	21
Pitches	96

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	27
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	5.46
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	8
Pitching_H	7
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.2
Pitching_Pitches	94
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	7
Pitching_Strikes	62
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260430_HOU@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	605135
playerID	605135
playerName	Chris Bassitt
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Andrew Kittredge (552640) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 4

All-history rows before 20260505: 4

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.750	7.000	-0.750	-6.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.775	0.100	0.225	0.900
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 4

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	4	3.333	7.000	9.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	18.9000	3.0000	2.1000	2.7000	0.3000	1.2000	0.3000
last_10	0.35	4	3.333	7.000	9.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	18.9000	3.0000	2.1000	2.7000	0.3000	1.2000	0.3000
season	0.20	4	3.333	7.000	9.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	18.9000	3.0000	2.1000	2.7000	0.3000	1.2000	0.3000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2500
predicted_ER	1.7500
predicted_ERA	18.9000
predicted_H	2.2500
predicted_HR	0.2500
predicted_IP	0.8330
predicted_SO	1.0000
predicted_WHIP	3.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2500	0.1625	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.7500	1.4875	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	18.9000	18.9000	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	2.2500	2.1625	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2500	0.1625	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.8330	0.8914	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.0000	1.3500	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	3.0000	3.0000	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	4
Season rows before report date	4
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	4
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	8
Pitching_ER	7
Pitching_ERA	18.90
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	7
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	7
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_BAL@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	552640
playerID	552640
playerName	Andrew Kittredge
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Anthony Nunez (689296) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 15

All-history rows before 20260505: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.467	3.000	-0.467	-3.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.960	0.000	0.040	1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.200	0.000	-1.200	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	2.000	7.000	2.000	6.000	0.000	3.0000	1.5000	0.3333	1.1667	0.3333	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	3.000	9.000	2.000	12.000	1.000	2.7000	1.1000	0.3000	0.9000	0.2000	1.2000	0.1000
season	0.20	14	15.333	4.000	12.000	3.000	18.000	2.000	2.3478	0.9783	0.2609	0.7826	0.1956	1.1739	0.1304

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2870
predicted_ER	0.3410
predicted_ERA	2.7646
predicted_H	1.1050
predicted_HR	0.0680
predicted_IP	1.1090
predicted_SO	1.2250
predicted_WHIP	1.2557

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2870	0.1865	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3410	0.2217	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.7646	2.7646	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1050	0.7183	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0680	0.0442	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.1090	1.0709	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.2250	0.7963	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2557	1.2557	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	10

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	4.11
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260502_BAL@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	689296
playerID	689296
playerName	Anthony Nunez
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Keegan Akin (669211) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 4

All-history rows before 20260505: 4

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.750	0.000	-0.750	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.800	0.200	0.200	0.800
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.750	0.000	1.250	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 4

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	4	3.667	7.000	9.000	3.000	2.000	17.1818	2.4545	1.9091	2.4545	0.8182	0.5454
last_10	0.35	4	3.667	7.000	9.000	3.000	2.000	17.1818	2.4545	1.9091	2.4545	0.8182	0.5454
season	0.20	4	3.667	7.000	9.000	3.000	2.000	17.1818	2.4545	1.9091	2.4545	0.8182	0.5454

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_ER	1.7500
predicted_ERA	17.1818
predicted_H	2.2500
predicted_HR	0.5000
predicted_IP	0.9170
predicted_SO	0.7500
predicted_WHIP	2.4545

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.7500	1.4875	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	17.1818	17.1818	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	2.2500	1.4625	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.5000	0.3250	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9170	0.9461	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.7500	1.1875	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	2.4545	2.4545	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	4
Season rows before report date	4
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	4
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	2
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	17.18
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	7
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_BAL@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	669211
playerID	669211
playerName	Keegan Akin
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Rico Garcia (670329) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 16

All-history rows before 20260505: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.844	1.000	0.156	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.667	1.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	1.000	2.4545	0.2727	0.2727	0.2727	0.0000	1.3636	0.2727
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	9.000	1.000	1.0000	0.2222	0.1111	0.1111	0.1111	1.0000	0.1111
season	0.20	16	14.667	1.000	1.000	4.000	16.000	1.000	0.6136	0.3409	0.0682	0.0682	0.2727	1.0909	0.0682

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.0770
predicted_ER	0.1450
predicted_ERA	1.5772
predicted_H	0.1450
predicted_HR	0.1450
predicted_IP	0.8280
predicted_SO	0.9790
predicted_WHIP	0.2687

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0770	0.0501	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1450	0.0943	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.5772	1.5772	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.1450	0.0943	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1450	0.0943	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.8280	0.8882	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9790	0.6363	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.2687	0.2687	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.61
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_BAL@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	670329
playerID	670329
playerName	Rico Garcia
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Yennier Cano (666974) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BAL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 17

All-history rows before 20260505: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.541	0.200	0.459	0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.647	0.000	0.353	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.667	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.0000	0.2727	0.0000	0.2727	0.0000	0.5454	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	7.667	1.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	1.000	1.1739	0.5217	0.1304	0.3913	0.1304	0.7826	0.1304
season	0.20	17	12.000	2.000	6.000	1.000	11.000	1.000	1.5000	0.5833	0.1667	0.5000	0.0833	0.9167	0.0833

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.0460
predicted_ER	0.0580
predicted_ERA	0.7109
predicted_H	0.2660
predicted_HR	0.0460
predicted_IP	0.7400
predicted_SO	0.5200
predicted_WHIP	0.4220

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0460	0.0299	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0580	0.0377	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.7109	0.7109	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.2660	0.5229	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0460	0.0299	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.7400	0.8310	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.5200	0.6880	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.4220	0.4220	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.50
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	9
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_BAL@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	666974
playerID	666974
playerName	Yennier Cano
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BAL
teamID	3

Home Team: MIA

Connor Norby (681393) · BATTER · DH · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 30

All-history rows before 20260505: 30

System season_avg: 0.2300

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2300

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.333	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.333	4.000	0.667	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.215	0.750	0.750	Hitting_AVG	0.230	0.000	0.520	0.750
predicted_BB	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_H	0.590	3.000	3.000	Hitting_H	0.767	0.000	2.233	3.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.332	0.750	0.750	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.000	0.417	0.750
predicted_R	0.233	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.233	0.000	0.767	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.367	0.000	0.633	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.314	0.750	0.750	Hitting_SLG	0.380	0.000	0.370	0.750
predicted_SO	1.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.200	3.000	-1.200	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.333	-
predicted_AVG	0.215	-
predicted_BB	0.400	-
predicted_H	0.590	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.332	-
predicted_R	0.233	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.314	-
predicted_SO	1.200	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.177	-0.023
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.345	0.012
predicted_AVG	0.215	0.000
predicted_BB	0.504	0.104
predicted_H	0.676	0.086
predicted_HBP	0.027	-
predicted_HR	0.054	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.332	-0.000
predicted_R	0.135	-0.098
predicted_RBI	0.286	0.036
predicted_SLG	0.314	0.000
predicted_SO	1.442	0.242

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.35), rates preserved: AVG=0.202 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	9.000	0.2353	0.3500	0.2941	0.2353	0.0000	0.0588	0.1765	0.5294
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	15.000	0.1818	0.3077	0.3030	0.1818	0.0303	0.1212	0.1818	0.4546
season	0.20	30	-	100.000	23.000	6.000	3.000	11.000	7.000	12.000	36.000	0.2300	0.3333	0.3800	0.2300	0.0300	0.1100	0.1200	0.3600

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1640
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.3520
predicted_AVG	0.2155
predicted_BB	0.5600
predicted_H	0.7220
predicted_HBP	0.0270
predicted_HR	0.0560
predicted_OBP	0.3319
predicted_R	0.0820
predicted_RBI	0.3050
predicted_SLG	0.3144
predicted_SO	1.5730

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.1640	0.1766	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3330	3.3520	3.3453	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2150	0.2155	0.2153	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4000	0.5600	0.5040	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5900	0.7220	0.6758	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0270	0.0270	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0560	0.0539	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3320	0.3319	0.3319	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2330	0.0820	0.1348	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.3050	0.2858	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3140	0.3144	0.3143	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2000	1.5730	1.4425	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	3
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260503_PHI@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	681393
playerID	681393
playerName	Connor Norby
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	MIA
teamID	15

Jakob Marsee (805300) · BATTER · CF · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 33

All-history rows before 20260505: 33

System season_avg: 0.1800

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1797

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.091	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_3B	0.061	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_AB	3.879	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.879	4.000	0.121	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.189	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.180	0.500	0.070	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.636	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.636	0.000	-0.636	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.061	1.000	-0.061	-1.000
predicted_H	0.630	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.697	2.000	0.303	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.302	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.303	0.500	-0.053	-0.250
predicted_R	0.576	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.576	0.000	0.424	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.212	0.000	-0.212	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.303	0.000	-0.303	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.247	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.258	0.500	-0.008	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.182	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.182	2.000	0.818	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.091	-
predicted_3B	0.061	-
predicted_AB	3.879	-
predicted_AVG	0.189	-
predicted_BB	0.636	-
predicted_H	0.630	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.302	-
predicted_R	0.576	-
predicted_RBI	0.120	-
predicted_SLG	0.247	-
predicted_SO	1.182	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.088	-0.003
predicted_3B	0.030	-0.031
predicted_AB	3.965	0.086
predicted_AVG	0.189	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.618	-0.018
predicted_H	0.713	0.083
predicted_HBP	0.047	-
predicted_HR	0.037	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.302	-0.000
predicted_R	0.426	-0.149
predicted_RBI	0.138	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.247	0.000
predicted_SO	1.610	0.428

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.96), rates preserved: AVG=0.180 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.879

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	12.000	0.1500	0.2609	0.1500	0.1500	0.0000	0.0000	0.1500	0.6000
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	10.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	6.000	15.000	0.2439	0.3542	0.3659	0.2439	0.0244	0.0732	0.1463	0.3659
season	0.20	33	-	128.000	23.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	19.000	21.000	39.000	0.1797	0.3026	0.2578	0.1797	0.0078	0.0547	0.1641	0.3047

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0870
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	4.0110
predicted_AVG	0.1888
predicted_BB	0.6080
predicted_H	0.7570
predicted_HBP	0.0470
predicted_HR	0.0410
predicted_OBP	0.3019
predicted_R	0.3460
predicted_RBI	0.1470
predicted_SLG	0.2471
predicted_SO	1.8410

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0910	0.0870	0.0884	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0610	0.0130	0.0298	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8790	4.0110	3.9648	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1890	0.1888	0.1889	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6360	0.6080	0.6178	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6300	0.7570	0.7126	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0470	0.0470	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0410	0.0372	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3020	0.3019	0.3019	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5760	0.3460	0.4265	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1200	0.1470	0.1376	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2470	0.2471	0.2471	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1820	1.8410	1.6103	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260504_PHI@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	805300
playerID	805300
playerName	Jakob Marsee
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	MIA
teamID	15

Joe Mack (691788) · BATTER · C · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 1

All-history rows before 20260505: 1

System season_avg: 0.0000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.0000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.000	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.000	0.000	0.250	0.250
predicted_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.000	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.000	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.000	-
predicted_SLG	0.000	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.000	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.000	0.000
predicted_R	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.000	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.000 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total SO	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	1	-	3.000	1.000	0.3333
last_10	0.35	1	-	3.000	1.000	0.3333
season	0.20	1	-	3.000	1.000	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.0000
predicted_AVG	0.0000
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_H	0.0000
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.0000
predicted_R	0.0000
predicted_RBI	0.0000
predicted_SLG	0.0000
predicted_SO	1.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.0000	3.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260504_PHI@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	691788
playerID	691788
playerName	Joe Mack
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	MIA
teamID	15

Owen Caissie (683357) · BATTER · RF · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 26

All-history rows before 20260505: 26

System season_avg: 0.2000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.231	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.269	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.269	2.000	0.731	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.107	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_BB	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.654	0.000	-0.654	0.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.123	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.237	0.000	-0.237	0.000
predicted_R	0.308	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.308	0.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.306	0.000	-0.306	0.000
predicted_SO	1.500	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.500	1.000	0.500	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.231	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.269	-
predicted_AVG	0.107	-
predicted_BB	0.154	-
predicted_H	0.270	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.123	-
predicted_R	0.308	-
predicted_RBI	0.220	-
predicted_SLG	0.140	-
predicted_SO	1.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.130	-0.101
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.071	-0.198
predicted_AVG	0.107	0.000
predicted_BB	0.094	-0.060
predicted_H	0.301	0.031
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.008	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.123	0.000
predicted_R	0.189	-0.119
predicted_RBI	0.243	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.140	0.000
predicted_SO	1.450	-0.050

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.27), rates preserved: AVG=0.092 HR/AB=0.002

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	7.000	0.0714	0.0714	0.0714	0.0714	0.0000	0.0714	0.0000	0.5000
last_10	0.35	10	-	30.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	14.000	0.1000	0.1250	0.1333	0.1000	0.0000	0.0667	0.0333	0.4667
season	0.20	26	-	85.000	17.000	6.000	1.000	13.000	8.000	4.000	39.000	0.2000	0.2366	0.3059	0.2000	0.0118	0.1529	0.0471	0.4588

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0760
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.9640
predicted_AVG	0.1071
predicted_BB	0.0620
predicted_H	0.3180
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.0070
predicted_OBP	0.1232
predicted_R	0.1250
predicted_RBI	0.2550
predicted_SLG	0.1400
predicted_SO	1.4230

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2310	0.0760	0.1303	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2690	2.9640	3.0708	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1070	0.1071	0.1071	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1540	0.0620	0.0942	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.2700	0.3180	0.3012	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0070	0.0080	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1230	0.1232	0.1231	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3080	0.1250	0.1890	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2200	0.2550	0.2428	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1400	0.1400	0.1400	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.5000	1.4230	1.4499	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.2

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260504_PHI@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	683357
playerID	683357
playerName	Owen Caissie
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	MIA
teamID	15

Xavier Edwards (669364) · BATTER · 2B · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 35

All-history rows before 20260505: 35

System season_avg: 0.3330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3333

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.057	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_AB	3.686	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.686	4.000	-0.686	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.322	0.667	0.667	Hitting_AVG	0.333	0.250	0.333	0.417
predicted_BB	0.543	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.543	0.000	0.457	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_H	1.100	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.229	1.000	0.771	1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.057	0.000	0.943	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.372	0.800	0.800	Hitting_OBP	0.419	0.250	0.381	0.550
predicted_R	0.657	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.657	0.000	0.343	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	3.000	3.000	Hitting_RBI	0.314	0.000	2.686	3.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.488	1.667	1.667	Hitting_SLG	0.465	0.250	1.202	1.417
predicted_SO	0.429	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.429	0.000	0.571	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.057	-
predicted_AB	3.686	-
predicted_AVG	0.322	-
predicted_BB	0.543	-
predicted_H	1.100	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.372	-
predicted_R	0.657	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.488	-
predicted_SO	0.429	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.201	0.001
predicted_3B	0.028	-0.029
predicted_AB	3.735	0.049
predicted_AVG	0.322	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.409	-0.134
predicted_H	1.171	0.071
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.129	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.372	0.000
predicted_R	0.550	-0.107
predicted_RBI	0.372	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.488	0.000
predicted_SO	0.256	-0.173

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.74), rates preserved: AVG=0.314 HR/AB=0.035

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.3000	0.3000	0.5000	0.3000	0.0500	0.1000	0.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	12.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	6.000	2.000	0.3429	0.4390	0.4857	0.3429	0.0286	0.1143	0.1714	0.0571
season	0.20	35	-	129.000	43.000	7.000	2.000	2.000	11.000	23.000	19.000	15.000	0.3333	0.4189	0.4651	0.3333	0.0155	0.0853	0.1473	0.1163

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2010
predicted_3B	0.0120
predicted_AB	3.7620
predicted_AVG	0.3217
predicted_BB	0.3370
predicted_H	1.2100
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1340
predicted_OBP	0.3724
predicted_R	0.4920
predicted_RBI	0.3840
predicted_SLG	0.4880
predicted_SO	0.1630

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.2010	0.2006	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0570	0.0120	0.0278	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6860	3.7620	3.7354	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3220	0.3217	0.3218	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5430	0.3370	0.4091	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1000	1.2100	1.1715	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1340	0.1291	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3720	0.3724	0.3723	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6570	0.4920	0.5497	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.3840	0.3721	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4880	0.4880	0.4880	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4290	0.1630	0.2561	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.333

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260504_PHI@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	669364
playerID	669364
playerName	Xavier Edwards
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	MIA
teamID	15

Otto Lopez (672640) · BATTER · SS · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 34

All-history rows before 20260505: 34

System season_avg: 0.3380

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3382

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.235	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_3B	0.059	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	4.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.387	0.200	0.200	Hitting_AVG	0.338	0.250	-0.138	-0.050
predicted_BB	0.176	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.059	1.000	-0.059	-1.000
predicted_H	1.420	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.353	1.000	-0.353	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.088	0.000	-0.088	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.394	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.372	0.250	-0.172	-0.050
predicted_R	0.676	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.676	0.000	0.324	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.441	0.000	-0.441	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.147	0.000	-0.147	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.462	0.200	0.200	Hitting_SLG	0.493	0.250	-0.293	-0.050
predicted_SO	0.824	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.824	0.000	-0.824	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.235	-
predicted_3B	0.059	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.387	-
predicted_BB	0.176	-
predicted_H	1.420	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.394	-
predicted_R	0.676	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.462	-
predicted_SO	0.824	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.239	0.005
predicted_3B	0.029	-0.030
predicted_AB	4.208	0.208
predicted_AVG	0.387	0.000
predicted_BB	0.086	-0.090
predicted_H	1.584	0.164
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.019	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.394	-0.000
predicted_R	0.594	-0.083
predicted_RBI	0.471	0.051
predicted_SLG	0.462	0.000
predicted_SO	0.857	0.033

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.21), rates preserved: AVG=0.376 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	2.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	9.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	0.000	4.000	0.4091	0.4091	0.4545	0.4091	0.0000	0.1364	0.0000	0.1818
last_10	0.35	10	-	44.000	17.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	4.000	0.000	10.000	0.3864	0.3864	0.4545	0.3864	0.0000	0.0909	0.0000	0.2273
season	0.20	34	-	136.000	46.000	8.000	2.000	3.000	15.000	23.000	6.000	28.000	0.3382	0.3724	0.4926	0.3382	0.0221	0.1103	0.0441	0.2059

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2420
predicted_3B	0.0130
predicted_AB	4.3200
predicted_AVG	0.3870
predicted_BB	0.0380
predicted_H	1.6720
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.0190
predicted_OBP	0.3938
predicted_R	0.5490
predicted_RBI	0.4980
predicted_SLG	0.4621
predicted_SO	0.8750

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2350	0.2420	0.2395	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0590	0.0130	0.0291	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	4.3200	4.2080	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3870	0.3870	0.3870	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1760	0.0380	0.0863	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.4200	1.6720	1.5838	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0190	0.0193	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3940	0.3938	0.3939	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6760	0.5490	0.5935	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4980	0.4707	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4620	0.4621	0.4621	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8240	0.8750	0.8571	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.338

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260504_PHI@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	672640
playerID	672640
playerName	Otto Lopez
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	MIA
teamID	15

Graham Pauley (688363) · BATTER · 3B · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 22

All-history rows before 20260505: 22

System season_avg: 0.1640

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1642

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.227	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.227	0.000	-0.227	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.045	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.045	2.000	-0.045	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.121	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.164	0.000	0.169	0.333
predicted_BB	0.182	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.182	0.000	0.818	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_H	0.280	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.190	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.211	0.000	0.289	0.500
predicted_R	0.273	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.273	0.000	0.727	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.273	0.000	0.727	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.283	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.284	0.000	0.050	0.333
predicted_SO	0.864	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.864	0.000	0.136	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.227	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.045	-
predicted_AVG	0.121	-
predicted_BB	0.182	-
predicted_H	0.280	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.190	-
predicted_R	0.273	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.283	-
predicted_SO	0.864	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.106	-0.121
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.849	-0.196
predicted_AVG	0.121	0.000
predicted_BB	0.217	0.035
predicted_H	0.314	0.034
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.126	0.016
predicted_OBP	0.190	-0.000
predicted_R	0.235	-0.038
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.050
predicted_SLG	0.283	0.000
predicted_SO	0.750	-0.114

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.04), rates preserved: AVG=0.103 HR/AB=0.041

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.0714	0.1333	0.2857	0.0714	0.0714	0.2143	0.0714	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	-	25.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	7.000	0.1600	0.2500	0.2800	0.1600	0.0400	0.1600	0.1200	0.2800
season	0.20	22	-	67.000	11.000	5.000	1.000	6.000	6.000	4.000	19.000	0.1642	0.2113	0.2836	0.1642	0.0149	0.0896	0.0597	0.2836

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0410
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.7440
predicted_AVG	0.1210
predicted_BB	0.2360
predicted_H	0.3320
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1350
predicted_OBP	0.1897
predicted_R	0.2140
predicted_RBI	0.4670
predicted_SLG	0.2833
predicted_SO	0.6890

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2270	0.0410	0.1061	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0450	2.7440	2.8494	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1210	0.1210	0.1210	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1820	0.2360	0.2171	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.2800	0.3320	0.3138	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1350	0.1263	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1900	0.1897	0.1898	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2730	0.2140	0.2346	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.4670	0.4401	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2830	0.2833	0.2832	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8640	0.6890	0.7502	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.164

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260504_PHI@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	688363
playerID	688363
playerName	Graham Pauley
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	MIA
teamID	15

Liam Hicks (689414) · BATTER · 1B · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 26

All-history rows before 20260505: 26

System season_avg: 0.3120

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3118

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.115	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.115	0.000	-0.115	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.577	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.577	4.000	0.423	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.237	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.312	0.000	-0.062	0.250
predicted_BB	0.308	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.308	0.000	0.692	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.115	0.000	-0.115	1.000
predicted_HR	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.269	0.000	-0.269	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.344	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.364	0.000	0.036	0.400
predicted_R	0.654	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.654	0.000	0.346	1.000
predicted_RBI	1.030	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	1.115	0.000	0.885	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.564	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.570	0.000	-0.320	0.250
predicted_SO	0.308	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.308	1.000	0.692	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.115	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.577	-
predicted_AVG	0.237	-
predicted_BB	0.308	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.350	-
predicted_OBP	0.344	-
predicted_R	0.654	-
predicted_RBI	1.030	-
predicted_SLG	0.564	-
predicted_SO	0.308	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.054	-0.061
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.345	-0.232
predicted_AVG	0.237	0.000
predicted_BB	0.506	0.198
predicted_H	0.766	-0.004
predicted_HBP	0.014	-
predicted_HR	0.346	-0.004
predicted_OBP	0.344	0.000
predicted_R	0.542	-0.112
predicted_RBI	1.027	-0.003
predicted_SLG	0.564	0.000
predicted_SO	0.506	0.198

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.58), rates preserved: AVG=0.214 HR/AB=0.097

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	0.2000	0.3500	0.6000	0.2000	0.1333	0.3333	0.2667	0.2667
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	8.000	0.000	3.000	10.000	5.000	5.000	5.000	0.2424	0.3250	0.5152	0.2424	0.0909	0.3030	0.1515	0.1515
season	0.20	26	-	93.000	29.000	3.000	7.000	29.000	17.000	8.000	8.000	0.3118	0.3645	0.5699	0.3118	0.0753	0.3118	0.0860	0.0860

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0210
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.2200
predicted_AVG	0.2372
predicted_BB	0.6130
predicted_H	0.7640
predicted_HBP	0.0140
predicted_HR	0.3440
predicted_OBP	0.3442
predicted_R	0.4820
predicted_RBI	1.0250
predicted_SLG	0.5643
predicted_SO	0.6130

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1150	0.0210	0.0539	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5770	3.2200	3.3450	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2370	0.2372	0.2371	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3080	0.6130	0.5062	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.7640	0.7661	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0140	0.0140	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3500	0.3440	0.3461	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3440	0.3442	0.3441	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6540	0.4820	0.5422	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	1.0300	1.0250	1.0268	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5640	0.5643	0.5642	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.3080	0.6130	0.5062	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.312

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260504_PHI@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	689414
playerID	689414
playerName	Liam Hicks
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	MIA
teamID	15

Kyle Stowers (669065) · BATTER · LF · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 13

All-history rows before 20260505: 13

System season_avg: 0.2400

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2400

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.231	2.000	2.000	Hitting_2B	0.231	0.000	1.769	2.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.846	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.846	4.000	1.154	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.227	0.400	0.400	Hitting_AVG	0.240	0.500	0.160	-0.100
predicted_BB	0.462	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.462	0.000	-0.462	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.923	2.000	1.077	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.320	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.500	0.067	-0.100
predicted_R	0.462	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.462	0.000	0.538	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.256	0.800	0.800	Hitting_SLG	0.300	0.500	0.500	0.300
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.231	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.846	-
predicted_AVG	0.227	-
predicted_BB	0.462	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.320	-
predicted_R	0.462	-
predicted_RBI	0.040	-
predicted_SLG	0.256	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	-0.077
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.809	-0.037
predicted_AVG	0.227	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.492	0.030
predicted_H	0.835	0.045
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.320	0.000
predicted_R	0.430	-0.032
predicted_RBI	0.045	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.256	0.000
predicted_SO	1.146	0.146

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.217 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	2.000	2.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 3.846

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	7.000	0.2222	0.3333	0.2222	0.2222	0.0000	0.1667	0.3889
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	11.000	0.2250	0.2955	0.2750	0.2250	0.0250	0.1000	0.2750
season	0.20	13	-	50.000	12.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	6.000	13.000	0.2400	0.3333	0.3000	0.2400	0.0200	0.1200	0.2600

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1120
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7890
predicted_AVG	0.2267
predicted_BB	0.5080
predicted_H	0.8590
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.3201
predicted_R	0.4130
predicted_RBI	0.0480
predicted_SLG	0.2562
predicted_SO	1.2250

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2310	0.1120	0.1537	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8460	3.7890	3.8089	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2270	0.2267	0.2268	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4620	0.5080	0.4919	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	0.8590	0.8348	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3200	0.3201	0.3201	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4620	0.4130	0.4302	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0400	0.0480	0.0452	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2560	0.2562	0.2561	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.2250	1.1463	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	2
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260504_PHI@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	669065
playerID	669065
playerName	Kyle Stowers
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	MIA
teamID	15

Sandy Alcantara (645261) · PITCHER · Starter · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 7

All-history rows before 20260505: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.286	2.000	0.714	1.000
predicted_IP	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	6.729	6.000	-1.729	-1.000
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_SO	4.429	4.000	0.571	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 5.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	31.333	16.000	33.000	13.000	19.000	4.000	4.5957	1.4681	0.5106	1.0532	0.4149	0.6064	0.1277
last_10	0.35	7	47.333	16.000	40.000	15.000	31.000	4.000	3.0423	1.1620	0.3380	0.8451	0.3169	0.6549	0.0845
season	0.20	7	47.333	16.000	40.000	15.000	31.000	4.000	3.0423	1.1620	0.3380	0.8451	0.3169	0.6549	0.0845

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.3610
predicted_ER	2.7180
predicted_ERA	3.7413
predicted_H	6.1380
predicted_HR	0.6800
predicted_IP	6.5390
predicted_SO	4.1400
predicted_WHIP	1.2997

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	2.3610	1.5347	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	2.7180	2.8167	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.7413	3.7413	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	6.1380	5.0397	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	2.0000	0.6800	1.1420	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.0000	6.5390	6.0004	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	4.1400	4.4410	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2997	1.2997	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.0
H	3
R	3
ER	3
BB	0
SO	5
HR	2
BF	18
Pitches	79

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	27
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	3.04
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	8
Pitching_H	7
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	104
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	73
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260429_MIA@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	645261
playerID	645261
playerName	Sandy Alcantara
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

Anthony Bender (669622) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 15

All-history rows before 20260505: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.467	0.000	-0.467	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.680	1.000	0.320	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.067	2.000	-0.067	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.667	0.000	3.000	0.000	4.000	0.0000	0.6429	0.0000	0.6429	0.0000	0.8571
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	3.000	7.000	3.000	10.000	3.0000	1.1111	0.3333	0.7778	0.3333	1.1111
season	0.20	15	13.000	7.000	11.000	8.000	16.000	4.8462	1.4615	0.5385	0.8461	0.6154	1.2308

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2180
predicted_ER	0.2040
predicted_ERA	2.0192
predicted_H	0.6640
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	0.9080
predicted_SO	0.9270
predicted_WHIP	0.9705

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2180	0.1417	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2040	0.1326	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.0192	2.0192	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6640	0.4316	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9080	0.9402	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9270	0.9526	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9705	0.9705	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.85
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260502_PHI@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	669622
playerID	669622
playerName	Anthony Bender
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

Calvin Faucher (676534) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 15

All-history rows before 20260505: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.773	1.000	0.227	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	3.6000	1.4000	0.4000	0.6000	0.8000	0.6000
last_10	0.35	10	8.667	3.000	6.000	8.000	8.000	3.1154	1.6154	0.3462	0.6923	0.9231	0.9231
season	0.20	15	13.000	6.000	9.000	12.000	15.000	4.1538	1.6154	0.4615	0.6923	0.9231	1.1539

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.8040
predicted_ER	0.3650
predicted_ERA	3.5412
predicted_H	0.6030
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	0.9270
predicted_SO	0.7630
predicted_WHIP	1.5185

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.8040	0.8726	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3650	0.2372	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5412	3.5412	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.6030	0.7419	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9270	0.9526	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.7630	1.1959	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5185	1.5185	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	2
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.15
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_PHI@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	676534
playerID	676534
playerName	Calvin Faucher
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

John King (667463) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 17

All-history rows before 20260505: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.729	0.200	0.271	0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.824	0.000	-0.824	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.667	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.0000	0.2143	0.0000	0.2143	0.0000	0.4286	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.667	1.000	3.000	2.000	9.000	1.000	0.8438	0.4688	0.0938	0.2812	0.1875	0.8438	0.0938
season	0.20	17	15.667	1.000	3.000	5.000	14.000	1.000	0.5745	0.5106	0.0638	0.1915	0.3191	0.8936	0.0638

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1270
predicted_ER	0.0450
predicted_ERA	0.4102
predicted_H	0.2280
predicted_HR	0.0450
predicted_IP	0.9780
predicted_SO	0.6520
predicted_WHIP	0.3626

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1270	0.0825	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0450	0.0292	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.4102	0.4102	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.2280	0.4982	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0450	0.0292	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9780	0.9857	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.6520	0.4238	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.3626	0.3626	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	2
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.57
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	10
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_PHI@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	667463
playerID	667463
playerName	John King
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

Tyler Phillips (663969) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 11

All-history rows before 20260505: 11

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.855	3.000	-0.855	-2.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	2.000	3.000	-1.000	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	9.333	2.000	10.000	4.000	7.000	1.000	1.9286	1.5000	0.2143	1.0714	0.4286	0.7500	0.1071
last_10	0.35	10	19.333	3.000	16.000	12.000	20.000	1.000	1.3966	1.4483	0.1552	0.8276	0.6207	1.0345	0.0517
season	0.20	11	21.333	3.000	17.000	12.000	22.000	1.000	1.2656	1.3594	0.1406	0.7969	0.5625	1.0312	0.0469

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.9950
predicted_ER	0.3410
predicted_ERA	1.6098
predicted_H	1.7730
predicted_HR	0.1440
predicted_IP	1.9050
predicted_SO	1.7250
predicted_WHIP	1.4538

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.9950	0.6468	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3410	0.2217	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.6098	1.6098	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.7730	1.1524	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1440	0.0936	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.9050	1.5882	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.7250	1.4712	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4538	1.4538	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	13
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.27
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	3.0
Pitching_Pitches	47
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	35
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_PHI@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	663969
playerID	663969
playerName	Tyler Phillips
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIA
teamID	15

20260505_BOS@DET

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 1, "confidence": 0.56, "home_win_probability": 0.43999999999999995, "away_win_probability": 0.56, "predicted_score_text": "BOS 5 - 1 DET", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "predicted_score_text": "BOS 4 - 2 DET", "confidence": 0.56, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "BOS 4 - 2 DET", "winner": "BOS"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 1, "score_text": "BOS 5 - 1 DET", "winner": "BOS"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 1, "home_run_delta": -1, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Away Team: BOS

Andruw Monasterio (655316) · BATTER · DH · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 11

All-history rows before 20260505: 11

System season_avg: 0.2200

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2195

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.273	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.727	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.727	4.000	-0.727	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.247	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.220	0.250	-0.220	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.455	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.455	0.000	0.545	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_H	0.760	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.818	1.000	-0.818	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.312	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.304	0.250	-0.054	0.000
predicted_R	0.545	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.545	1.000	-0.545	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.630	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.545	0.000	-0.545	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.452	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.366	0.250	-0.366	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.636	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.636	1.000	0.364	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.273	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.727	-
predicted_AVG	0.247	-
predicted_BB	0.455	-
predicted_H	0.760	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.312	-
predicted_R	0.545	-
predicted_RBI	0.630	-
predicted_SLG	0.452	-
predicted_SO	0.636	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.316	0.043
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.742	0.015
predicted_AVG	0.247	0.000
predicted_BB	0.392	-0.063
predicted_H	0.869	0.109
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.135	0.015
predicted_OBP	0.312	0.000
predicted_R	0.631	0.086
predicted_RBI	0.719	0.089
predicted_SLG	0.452	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.536	-0.100

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.74), rates preserved: AVG=0.232 HR/AB=0.036

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	0.2632	0.3000	0.5263	0.2632	0.0526	0.2632	0.0526	0.1053
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	9.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	6.000	5.000	5.000	0.2432	0.3333	0.4054	0.2432	0.0270	0.1622	0.1351	0.1351
season	0.20	11	-	41.000	9.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	6.000	5.000	7.000	0.2195	0.3043	0.3659	0.2195	0.0244	0.1463	0.1220	0.1707

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3390
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7500
predicted_AVG	0.2475
predicted_BB	0.3580
predicted_H	0.9280
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1430
predicted_OBP	0.3125
predicted_R	0.6780
predicted_RBI	0.7670
predicted_SLG	0.4519
predicted_SO	0.4830

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2730	0.3390	0.3159	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7270	3.7500	3.7420	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2470	0.2475	0.2473	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4550	0.3580	0.3920	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7600	0.9280	0.8692	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1430	0.1349	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3120	0.3125	0.3123	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5450	0.6780	0.6315	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6300	0.7670	0.7190	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4520	0.4519	0.4519	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6360	0.4830	0.5365	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260504_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	655316
playerID	655316
playerName	Andruw Monasterio
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	BOS
teamID	4

Isiah Kiner-Falefa (643396) · BATTER · 2B · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 11

All-history rows before 20260505: 11

System season_avg: 0.2190

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2188

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.909	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	2.909	2.000	1.091	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.215	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.219	0.500	0.031	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.470	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.636	1.000	0.364	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.241	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.265	0.500	-0.015	-0.250
predicted_R	0.455	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.455	0.000	-0.455	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.215	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.219	0.500	0.031	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.545	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.545	0.000	0.455	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.909	-
predicted_AVG	0.215	-
predicted_BB	0.182	-
predicted_H	0.470	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.241	-
predicted_R	0.455	-
predicted_RBI	0.110	-
predicted_SLG	0.215	-
predicted_SO	0.545	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.957	0.048
predicted_AVG	0.215	0.000
predicted_BB	0.133	-0.049
predicted_H	0.582	0.112
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.241	0.000
predicted_R	0.449	-0.006
predicted_RBI	0.131	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.215	0.000
predicted_SO	0.551	0.006

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.96), rates preserved: AVG=0.197 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=21.0, BvP AVG=0.190)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	0.0667	0.0000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	30.000	7.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	5.000	0.2333	0.2812	0.2333	0.2333	0.0333	0.0667	0.1667
season	0.20	11	-	32.000	7.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	6.000	0.2188	0.2647	0.2188	0.2188	0.0312	0.0625	0.1875

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.9820
predicted_AVG	0.2154
predicted_BB	0.1070
predicted_H	0.6420
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.2414
predicted_R	0.4460
predicted_RBI	0.1430
predicted_SLG	0.2154
predicted_SO	0.5540

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.9090	2.9820	2.9565	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2150	0.2154	0.2153	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1820	0.1070	0.1332	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4700	0.6420	0.5818	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2410	0.2414	0.2413	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4550	0.4460	0.4491	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1100	0.1430	0.1314	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2150	0.2154	0.2153	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5450	0.5540	0.5509	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.219

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260429_BOS@TOR
game_type	full
mlbID	643396
playerID	643396
playerName	Isiah Kiner-Falefa
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	BOS
teamID	4

Caleb Durbin (702332) · BATTER · 3B · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 31

All-history rows before 20260505: 31

System season_avg: 0.1670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.194	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.484	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.484	4.000	-0.484	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.158	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.167	0.000	0.167	0.333
predicted_BB	0.355	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.355	0.000	0.645	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_H	0.450	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.581	0.000	0.419	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.228	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.256	0.000	0.244	0.500
predicted_R	0.419	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.419	0.000	0.581	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.323	0.000	-0.323	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.097	0.000	-0.097	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.216	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.250	0.000	0.083	0.333
predicted_SO	0.516	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.516	0.000	-0.516	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.194	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.484	-
predicted_AVG	0.158	-
predicted_BB	0.355	-
predicted_H	0.450	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.228	-
predicted_R	0.419	-
predicted_RBI	0.170	-
predicted_SLG	0.216	-
predicted_SO	0.516	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.115	-0.079
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.440	-0.044
predicted_AVG	0.158	0.000
predicted_BB	0.320	-0.035
predicted_H	0.509	0.059
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.037	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.228	-0.000
predicted_R	0.396	-0.023
predicted_RBI	0.192	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.216	0.000
predicted_SO	0.374	-0.142

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.48), rates preserved: AVG=0.146 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.1176	0.1667	0.1176	0.1177	0.0000	0.0000	0.0588	0.0588
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	4.000	3.000	0.2059	0.2895	0.3235	0.2059	0.0294	0.1177	0.1177	0.0882
season	0.20	31	-	108.000	18.000	6.000	1.000	10.000	13.000	11.000	16.000	0.1667	0.2562	0.2500	0.1667	0.0093	0.0926	0.1018	0.1482

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0730
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4170
predicted_AVG	0.1583
predicted_BB	0.3010
predicted_H	0.5410
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.0410
predicted_OBP	0.2276
predicted_R	0.3840
predicted_RBI	0.2040
predicted_SLG	0.2161
predicted_SO	0.2970

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1940	0.0730	0.1154	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4840	3.4170	3.4404	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1580	0.1583	0.1582	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3550	0.3010	0.3199	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4500	0.5410	0.5091	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0410	0.0372	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2280	0.2276	0.2277	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4190	0.3840	0.3962	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1700	0.2040	0.1921	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2160	0.2161	0.2161	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5160	0.2970	0.3736	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.167

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260503_HOU@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	702332
playerID	702332
playerName	Caleb Durbin
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	BOS
teamID	4

Willson Contreras (575929) · BATTER · 1B · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 34

All-history rows before 20260505: 34

System season_avg: 0.2700

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2705

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.118	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.588	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.588	4.000	1.412	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.330	0.200	0.200	Hitting_AVG	0.270	0.000	-0.070	0.200
predicted_BB	0.471	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.471	1.000	-0.471	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.070	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.971	0.000	0.029	1.000
predicted_HR	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.206	0.000	-0.206	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.409	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.381	0.200	-0.181	0.000
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.530	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.618	0.000	-0.618	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.567	0.200	0.200	Hitting_SLG	0.475	0.000	-0.275	0.200
predicted_SO	1.206	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.206	2.000	-0.206	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.118	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.588	-
predicted_AVG	0.330	-
predicted_BB	0.471	-
predicted_H	1.070	-
predicted_HR	0.200	-
predicted_OBP	0.409	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.530	-
predicted_SLG	0.567	-
predicted_SO	1.206	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.160	0.042
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.699	0.111
predicted_AVG	0.330	0.000
predicted_BB	0.435	-0.036
predicted_H	1.182	0.112
predicted_HBP	0.201	-
predicted_HR	0.223	0.023
predicted_OBP	0.409	-0.000
predicted_R	0.516	0.016
predicted_RBI	0.588	0.058
predicted_SLG	0.567	0.000
predicted_SO	1.168	-0.038

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.70), rates preserved: AVG=0.320 HR/AB=0.060

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	0.3684	0.4348	0.5789	0.3684	0.0526	0.1053	0.1053	0.2632
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	12.000	2.000	3.000	9.000	7.000	4.000	13.000	0.3158	0.3913	0.6053	0.3158	0.0790	0.2368	0.1053	0.3421
season	0.20	34	-	122.000	33.000	4.000	7.000	21.000	17.000	16.000	41.000	0.2705	0.3810	0.4754	0.2705	0.0574	0.1721	0.1311	0.3361

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1830
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7580
predicted_AVG	0.3304
predicted_BB	0.4150
predicted_H	1.2420
predicted_HBP	0.2010
predicted_HR	0.2360
predicted_OBP	0.4088
predicted_R	0.5250
predicted_RBI	0.6190
predicted_SLG	0.5674
predicted_SO	1.1470

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1180	0.1830	0.1603	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5880	3.7580	3.6985	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3300	0.3304	0.3303	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4710	0.4150	0.4346	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0700	1.2420	1.1818	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.2010	0.2010	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2000	0.2360	0.2234	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4090	0.4088	0.4089	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.5250	0.5163	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5300	0.6190	0.5878	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5670	0.5674	0.5673	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2060	1.1470	1.1677	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.27

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260504_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	575929
playerID	575929
playerName	Willson Contreras
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	BOS
teamID	4

Trevor Story (596115) · BATTER · SS · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 33

All-history rows before 20260505: 33

System season_avg: 0.2070

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2074

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.091	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	4.091	5.000	-1.091	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.264	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.207	0.200	-0.207	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.212	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.212	0.000	0.788	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.970	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.848	1.000	-0.848	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.299	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.243	0.200	0.007	0.050
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.545	0.000	-0.545	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.313	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.296	0.200	-0.296	-0.200
predicted_SO	1.333	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.333	3.000	-0.333	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.091	-
predicted_AVG	0.264	-
predicted_BB	0.212	-
predicted_H	0.970	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.299	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.210	-
predicted_SLG	0.313	-
predicted_SO	1.333	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.168	-0.014
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.043	-0.048
predicted_AVG	0.264	0.000
predicted_BB	0.205	-0.007
predicted_H	1.029	0.059
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.011	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.299	-0.000
predicted_R	0.251	-0.083
predicted_RBI	0.225	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.313	0.000
predicted_SO	1.241	-0.092

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.09), rates preserved: AVG=0.252 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 4.091

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	0.3000	0.3333	0.3500	0.3000	0.0000	0.0500	0.0500	0.3000
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	10.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	11.000	0.2500	0.2857	0.2750	0.2500	0.0000	0.0250	0.0500	0.2750
season	0.20	33	-	135.000	28.000	6.000	2.000	18.000	11.000	7.000	44.000	0.2074	0.2431	0.2963	0.2074	0.0148	0.1333	0.0519	0.3259

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1610
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.0180
predicted_AVG	0.2640
predicted_BB	0.2020
predicted_H	1.0610
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0120
predicted_OBP	0.2986
predicted_R	0.2060
predicted_RBI	0.2330
predicted_SLG	0.3130
predicted_SO	1.1910

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.1610	0.1683	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0910	4.0180	4.0435	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2640	0.2640	0.2640	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2120	0.2020	0.2055	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9700	1.0610	1.0292	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0120	0.0113	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2990	0.2986	0.2987	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.2060	0.2505	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2100	0.2330	0.2249	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3130	0.3130	0.3130	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3330	1.1910	1.2407	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.207

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260504_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	596115
playerID	596115
playerName	Trevor Story
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	BOS
teamID	4

Connor Wong (657136) · BATTER · C · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 13

All-history rows before 20260505: 13

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.385	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.385	0.000	0.615	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.077	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.077	4.000	0.923	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.159	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.250	0.000	0.000
predicted_BB	0.308	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.308	0.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.380	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.769	1.000	0.231	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.276	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.250	-0.083	0.000
predicted_R	0.231	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.231	1.000	-0.231	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.385	0.000	-0.385	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.234	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.375	0.250	0.125	0.250
predicted_SO	0.462	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.462	1.000	1.538	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.385	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.077	-
predicted_AVG	0.159	-
predicted_BB	0.308	-
predicted_H	0.380	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.276	-
predicted_R	0.231	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.234	-
predicted_SO	0.462	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.290	-0.095
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.176	0.099
predicted_AVG	0.159	0.000
predicted_BB	0.411	0.103
predicted_H	0.468	0.088
predicted_HBP	0.053	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.276	0.000
predicted_R	0.295	0.064
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.080
predicted_SLG	0.234	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.431	-0.031

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.18), rates preserved: AVG=0.147 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	0.1176	0.2500	0.1765	0.1177	0.1765	0.1765	0.1177
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	0.1613	0.2778	0.2258	0.1613	0.1290	0.1290	0.1290
season	0.20	13	-	40.000	10.000	5.000	5.000	3.000	4.000	6.000	0.2500	0.3333	0.3750	0.2500	0.1250	0.1000	0.1500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2390
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.2300
predicted_AVG	0.1594
predicted_BB	0.4670
predicted_H	0.5150
predicted_HBP	0.0530
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.2764
predicted_R	0.3290
predicted_RBI	0.4830
predicted_SLG	0.2335
predicted_SO	0.4140

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3850	0.2390	0.2901	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0770	3.2300	3.1764	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1590	0.1594	0.1593	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3080	0.4670	0.4114	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3800	0.5150	0.4677	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0530	0.0530	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2760	0.2764	0.2763	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2310	0.3290	0.2947	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.4830	0.4400	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2340	0.2335	0.2337	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4620	0.4140	0.4308	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260502_HOU@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	657136
playerID	657136
playerName	Connor Wong
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	BOS
teamID	4

Jarren Duran (680776) · BATTER · LF · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 28

All-history rows before 20260505: 28

System season_avg: 0.2070

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2069

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.179	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.179	0.000	-0.179	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.143	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.143	5.000	-0.143	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.262	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.207	0.600	0.043	-0.350
predicted_BB	0.286	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.286	0.000	0.714	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.857	3.000	0.143	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.350	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	1.000	0.857	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.299	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.264	0.600	0.136	-0.200
predicted_R	0.643	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.643	1.000	0.357	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.870	3.000	3.000	Hitting_RBI	0.643	3.000	2.357	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.214	1.000	-0.214	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.546	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.353	1.200	0.647	-0.200
predicted_SO	1.071	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.071	2.000	-0.071	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.179	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.143	-
predicted_AVG	0.262	-
predicted_BB	0.286	-
predicted_H	1.000	-
predicted_HR	0.350	-
predicted_OBP	0.299	-
predicted_R	0.643	-
predicted_RBI	0.870	-
predicted_SLG	0.546	-
predicted_SO	1.071	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.087	-0.092
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.300	0.157
predicted_AVG	0.262	0.000
predicted_BB	0.242	-0.044
predicted_H	1.097	0.097
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.384	0.034
predicted_OBP	0.299	-0.000
predicted_R	0.622	-0.021
predicted_RBI	0.956	0.086
predicted_SLG	0.546	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.013	-0.058

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.30), rates preserved: AVG=0.255 HR/AB=0.089

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	3.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 4.143

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	7.000	0.000	3.000	7.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	0.3182	0.3478	0.7273	0.3182	0.1364	0.3182	0.0454	0.2273
last_10	0.35	10	-	45.000	10.000	0.000	3.000	7.000	6.000	2.000	9.000	0.2222	0.2553	0.4222	0.2222	0.0667	0.1556	0.0444	0.2000
season	0.20	28	-	116.000	24.000	5.000	4.000	18.000	18.000	8.000	30.000	0.2069	0.2640	0.3534	0.2069	0.0345	0.1552	0.0690	0.2586

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0380
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.3840
predicted_AVG	0.2623
predicted_BB	0.2180
predicted_H	1.1500
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.4020
predicted_OBP	0.2987
predicted_R	0.6100
predicted_RBI	1.0020
predicted_SLG	0.5457
predicted_SO	0.9820

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1790	0.0380	0.0873	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1430	4.3840	4.2996	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2620	0.2623	0.2622	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2860	0.2180	0.2418	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0000	1.1500	1.0975	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3500	0.4020	0.3838	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2990	0.2987	0.2988	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6430	0.6100	0.6216	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8700	1.0020	0.9558	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5460	0.5457	0.5458	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0710	0.9820	1.0131	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.207

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.6
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	6
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH-LF
gameID	20260504_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	680776
playerID	680776
playerName	Jarren Duran
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	BOS
teamID	4

Ceddanne Rafaela (678882) · BATTER · CF · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 30

All-history rows before 20260505: 30

System season_avg: 0.2590

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2593

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.133	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_3B	0.067	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_AB	3.600	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.600	5.000	-0.600	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.227	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.259	0.400	0.074	-0.067
predicted_BB	0.200	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.200	0.000	0.800	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_H	0.710	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.933	2.000	0.067	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.270	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.328	0.400	0.172	0.100
predicted_R	0.400	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.400	0.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.130	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.267	0.000	1.733	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.290	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.361	0.400	-0.028	-0.067
predicted_SO	0.900	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.900	0.000	0.100	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.133	-
predicted_3B	0.067	-
predicted_AB	3.600	-
predicted_AVG	0.227	-
predicted_BB	0.200	-
predicted_H	0.710	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.270	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.130	-
predicted_SLG	0.290	-
predicted_SO	0.900	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.087	-0.046
predicted_3B	0.077	0.010
predicted_AB	3.831	0.231
predicted_AVG	0.227	0.000
predicted_BB	0.121	-0.079
predicted_H	0.833	0.123
predicted_HBP	0.159	-
predicted_HR	0.008	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.270	0.000
predicted_R	0.263	-0.137
predicted_RBI	0.149	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.290	0.000
predicted_SO	0.930	0.030

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.217 HR/AB=0.002

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, BvP AVG=0.571)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	0.2000	0.2381	0.2000	0.2000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	10.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	9.000	0.2439	0.2791	0.3659	0.2439	0.0000	0.0732	0.0244	0.2195
season	0.20	30	-	108.000	28.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	8.000	12.000	6.000	27.000	0.2593	0.3277	0.3611	0.2593	0.0093	0.0741	0.0556	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0630
predicted_3B	0.0820
predicted_AB	3.9550
predicted_AVG	0.2272
predicted_BB	0.0780
predicted_H	0.8990
predicted_HBP	0.1590
predicted_HR	0.0070
predicted_OBP	0.2704
predicted_R	0.1890
predicted_RBI	0.1600
predicted_SLG	0.2903
predicted_SO	0.9470

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1330	0.0630	0.0875	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0670	0.0820	0.0768	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6000	3.9550	3.8308	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2270	0.2272	0.2271	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2000	0.0780	0.1207	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7100	0.8990	0.8328	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1590	0.1590	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0070	0.0080	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2700	0.2704	0.2703	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.1890	0.2628	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1300	0.1600	0.1495	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2900	0.2903	0.2902	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9000	0.9470	0.9305	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.259

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260504_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	678882
playerID	678882
playerName	Ceddanne Rafaela
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	BOS
teamID	4

Wilyer Abreu (677800) · BATTER · RF · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 34

All-history rows before 20260505: 34

System season_avg: 0.2970

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2969

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.176	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	1.000	1.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	0.971	1.000
predicted_AB	3.765	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.765	4.000	0.235	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.305	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.297	0.250	-0.047	0.000
predicted_BB	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_H	1.050	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.118	1.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.451	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.379	0.400	0.021	0.000
predicted_R	0.471	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.471	1.000	0.529	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.441	1.000	-0.441	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.384	0.750	0.750	Hitting_SLG	0.453	0.250	0.297	0.500
predicted_SO	0.794	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.794	2.000	0.206	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.176	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.765	-
predicted_AVG	0.305	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	1.050	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.451	-
predicted_R	0.471	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.384	-
predicted_SO	0.794	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.127	-0.049
predicted_3B	0.014	-0.015
predicted_AB	3.643	-0.122
predicted_AVG	0.305	0.000
predicted_BB	0.804	0.304
predicted_H	1.077	0.027
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.054	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.451	-0.000
predicted_R	0.394	-0.077
predicted_RBI	0.402	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.384	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.860	0.066

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.286 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	1.000	1.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	5.000	0.2941	0.4783	0.2941	0.2941	0.0000	0.1177	0.3529	0.2941
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	12.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	9.000	8.000	0.3243	0.4565	0.4595	0.3243	0.0270	0.1081	0.2432	0.2162
season	0.20	34	-	128.000	38.000	6.000	1.000	4.000	15.000	16.000	17.000	27.000	0.2969	0.3793	0.4531	0.2969	0.0312	0.1172	0.1328	0.2109

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1010
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.5780
predicted_AVG	0.3052
predicted_BB	0.9680
predicted_H	1.0920
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0560
predicted_OBP	0.4509
predicted_R	0.3530
predicted_RBI	0.4090
predicted_SLG	0.3838
predicted_SO	0.8950

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1760	0.1010	0.1273	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0060	0.0140	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7650	3.5780	3.6434	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3050	0.3052	0.3051	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.9680	0.8042	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0500	1.0920	1.0773	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0560	0.0539	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4510	0.4509	0.4509	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4710	0.3530	0.3943	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.4090	0.4023	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3840	0.3838	0.3839	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7940	0.8950	0.8597	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	1
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.297

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260504_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	677800
playerID	677800
playerName	Wilyer Abreu
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	BOS
teamID	4

Jovani Morán (663558) · PITCHER · Starter · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 10

All-history rows before 20260505: 10

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_IP	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.770	0.200	3.230	4.800
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.700	1.000	2.300	3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 5.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	11.333	2.000	5.000	6.000	7.000	1.000	1.5882	0.9706	0.1765	0.4412	0.5294	0.6177	0.0882
last_10	0.35	9	19.333	4.000	9.000	9.000	17.000	2.000	1.8621	0.9310	0.2069	0.4655	0.4655	0.8793	0.1035
season	0.20	9	19.333	4.000	9.000	9.000	17.000	2.000	1.8621	0.9310	0.2069	0.4655	0.4655	0.8793	0.1035

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.0880
predicted_ER	0.4250
predicted_ERA	1.7388
predicted_H	1.0010
predicted_HR	0.2130
predicted_IP	2.2010
predicted_SO	1.6770
predicted_WHIP	0.9488

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.0880	1.4072	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.4250	0.6262	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.7388	1.7388	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.0010	1.3506	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2130	0.1384	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.0000	2.2010	3.1806	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	1.6770	2.4901	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9488	0.9488	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.0
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	2
SO	4
HR	0
BF	20
Pitches	84

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.33
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_HOU@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	663558
playerID	663558
playerName	Jovani Morán
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

Aroldis Chapman (547973) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 12

All-history rows before 20260505: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.083	0.000	-0.083
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.933	1.000	0.067
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.167	1.000	-0.167

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.667	0.000	3.000	0.000	7.000	0.0000	0.6429	0.0000	0.6429	0.0000	1.5000
last_10	0.35	10	9.667	1.000	7.000	3.000	13.000	0.9310	1.0345	0.1035	0.7241	0.3103	1.3448
season	0.20	12	11.667	1.000	7.000	3.000	14.000	0.7714	0.8571	0.0857	0.6000	0.2571	1.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1520
predicted_ER	0.0510
predicted_ERA	0.4801
predicted_H	0.6310
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	0.9530
predicted_SO	1.3200
predicted_WHIP	0.8228

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1520	0.0988	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0510	0.0331	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.4801	0.4801	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6310	0.4102	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9530	0.9694	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.3200	1.2080	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8228	0.8228	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	3
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.77
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	547973
playerID	547973
playerName	Aroldis Chapman
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

Garrett Whitlock (676477) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 14

All-history rows before 20260505: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.429	2.000	-0.429	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.007	1.000	-0.007	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.214	2.000	-0.214	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.333	4.000	8.000	1.000	5.000	1.000	6.7500	1.6875	0.7500	1.5000	0.1875	0.9375	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	10.333	5.000	10.000	2.000	11.000	2.000	4.3548	1.1613	0.4839	0.9677	0.1935	1.0645	0.1935
season	0.20	14	14.333	6.000	13.000	6.000	17.000	2.000	3.7674	1.3256	0.4186	0.9070	0.4186	1.1861	0.1395

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2470
predicted_ER	0.6180
predicted_ERA	5.3152
predicted_H	1.2510
predicted_HR	0.1880
predicted_IP	1.0460
predicted_SO	1.0800
predicted_WHIP	1.4309

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2470	0.1605	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6180	0.4017	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.3152	5.3152	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.2510	1.1631	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1880	0.1222	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0460	1.0299	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0800	1.0520	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4309	1.4309	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	2
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	3.77
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	26
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	676477
playerID	676477
playerName	Garrett Whitlock
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

Greg Weissert (669711) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 15

All-history rows before 20260505: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.533	1.000	-0.533	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.740	1.100	0.260	-0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.200	1.000	-1.200	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.333	3.000	10.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	6.2308	2.5385	0.6923	2.3077	0.2308	0.9231	0.2308
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	3.000	12.000	2.000	10.000	1.000	3.0000	1.5556	0.3333	1.3333	0.2222	1.1111	0.1111
season	0.20	15	13.667	8.000	17.000	4.000	18.000	4.000	5.2683	1.5366	0.5854	1.2439	0.2927	1.3171	0.2927

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2130
predicted_ER	0.4840
predicted_ERA	4.9075
predicted_H	1.5560
predicted_HR	0.1790
predicted_IP	0.8870
predicted_SO	0.9470
predicted_WHIP	1.9941

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2130	0.1384	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4840	0.3146	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.9075	4.9075	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.5560	1.3614	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1790	0.1163	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.8870	0.9265	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9470	0.6156	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.9941	1.9941	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	5.27
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_HOU@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	669711
playerID	669711
playerName	Greg Weissert
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

Zack Kelly (677161) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team BOS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 12

All-history rows before 20260505: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.500	2.000	-0.500	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.900	1.000	0.100	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.833	0.000	1.167	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.667	2.000	4.000	3.000	6.000	0.000	3.8571	1.5000	0.4286	0.8571	0.6429	1.2857	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.667	5.000	9.000	4.000	9.000	1.000	4.2188	1.2188	0.4688	0.8438	0.3750	0.8438	0.0938
season	0.20	12	12.667	6.000	10.000	4.000	10.000	1.000	4.2632	1.1053	0.4737	0.7895	0.3158	0.7895	0.0790

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4860
predicted_ER	0.4540
predicted_ERA	4.0649
predicted_H	0.8430
predicted_HR	0.0490
predicted_IP	1.0040
predicted_SO	1.0360
predicted_WHIP	1.3226

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4860	0.3159	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4540	0.2951	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0649	4.0649	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8430	0.5480	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0490	0.0319	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0040	1.0026	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.0360	1.3734	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3226	1.3226	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	4.26
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	7
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_HOU@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	677161
playerID	677161
playerName	Zack Kelly
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	BOS
teamID	4

Home Team: DET

Jahmai Jones (663330) · BATTER · DH · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 8

All-history rows before 20260505: 8

System season_avg: 0.2730

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2727

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.750	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	2.750	2.000	1.250	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.225	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_BB	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.125	1.000	-0.125	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_H	0.570	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.271	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.304	0.333	-0.304	-0.333
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.388	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SO	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	1.000	0.250	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.750	-
predicted_AVG	0.225	-
predicted_BB	0.125	-
predicted_H	0.570	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.271	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.388	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.235	-0.015
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.648	-0.102
predicted_AVG	0.225	0.000
predicted_BB	0.149	0.024
predicted_H	0.579	0.009
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.063	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.271	0.000
predicted_R	0.470	-0.030
predicted_RBI	0.288	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.388	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.768	0.018

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.75), rates preserved: AVG=0.210 HR/AB=0.023

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	12.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.1667	0.2308	0.2500	0.1667	0.0000	0.0833	0.0833	0.3333
last_10	0.35	8	-	22.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	0.2727	0.3043	0.5000	0.2727	0.0454	0.1364	0.0454	0.2727
season	0.20	8	-	22.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	0.2727	0.3043	0.5000	0.2727	0.0454	0.1364	0.0454	0.2727

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2270
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.5930
predicted_AVG	0.2250
predicted_BB	0.1620
predicted_H	0.5830
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0650
predicted_OBP	0.2712
predicted_R	0.4540
predicted_RBI	0.2920
predicted_SLG	0.3875
predicted_SO	0.7780

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.2270	0.2351	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.7500	2.5930	2.6479	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2250	0.2250	0.2250	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1250	0.1620	0.1491	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5700	0.5830	0.5785	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0650	0.0633	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2710	0.2712	0.2711	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4540	0.4701	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.2920	0.2878	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3880	0.3875	0.3877	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.7780	0.7682	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.273

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260504_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	663330
playerID	663330
playerName	Jahmai Jones
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	DET
teamID	10

Dillon Dingler (693307) · BATTER · C · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 26

All-history rows before 20260505: 26

System season_avg: 0.2630

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2626

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.231	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.231	1.000	-0.231	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.808	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.808	4.000	0.192	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.256	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.263	0.250	-0.263	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.269	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.269	0.000	-0.269	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.880	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.306	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.336	0.250	-0.336	-0.250
predicted_R	0.462	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.462	0.000	-0.462	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.760	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.923	2.000	-0.923	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.467	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.505	0.500	-0.505	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.692	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.692	1.000	0.308	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.231	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.808	-
predicted_AVG	0.256	-
predicted_BB	0.269	-
predicted_H	0.880	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.306	-
predicted_R	0.462	-
predicted_RBI	0.760	-
predicted_SLG	0.467	-
predicted_SO	0.692	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.275	0.044
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.850	0.042
predicted_AVG	0.256	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.255	-0.014
predicted_H	0.952	0.072
predicted_HBP	0.031	-
predicted_HR	0.164	0.014
predicted_OBP	0.306	0.000
predicted_R	0.326	-0.136
predicted_RBI	0.818	0.058
predicted_SLG	0.467	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.667	-0.025

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.247 HR/AB=0.043

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.808

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.3158	0.3500	0.5789	0.3158	0.0526	0.2632	0.0526	0.1579
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	2.000	3.000	7.000	0.1750	0.2326	0.3000	0.1750	0.0250	0.1500	0.0750	0.1750
season	0.20	26	-	99.000	26.000	6.000	6.000	24.000	12.000	7.000	18.000	0.2626	0.3364	0.5051	0.2626	0.0606	0.2424	0.0707	0.1818

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2980
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8720
predicted_AVG	0.2559
predicted_BB	0.2480
predicted_H	0.9910
predicted_HBP	0.0310
predicted_HR	0.1720
predicted_OBP	0.3062
predicted_R	0.2530
predicted_RBI	0.8490
predicted_SLG	0.4665
predicted_SO	0.6530

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2310	0.2980	0.2746	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8080	3.8720	3.8496	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2560	0.2559	0.2559	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2690	0.2480	0.2554	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8800	0.9910	0.9522	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0310	0.0310	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1720	0.1643	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3060	0.3062	0.3061	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4620	0.2530	0.3262	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7600	0.8490	0.8178	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4670	0.4665	0.4667	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6920	0.6530	0.6666	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.263

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260504_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	693307
playerID	693307
playerName	Dillon Dingler
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	DET
teamID	10

Matt Vierling (663837) · BATTER · CF · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 19

All-history rows before 20260505: 19

System season_avg: 0.2120

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2121

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.368	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.368	0.000	0.632	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.474	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.474	3.000	-0.474	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.197	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.212	0.000	0.121	0.333
predicted_BB	0.316	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.316	1.000	0.684	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.630	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.737	0.000	0.263	1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.257	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.274	0.250	0.226	0.250
predicted_R	0.368	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.368	1.000	0.632	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.760	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.579	1.000	0.421	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.309	0.667	0.667	Hitting_SLG	0.318	0.000	0.348	0.667
predicted_SO	0.684	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.684	0.000	-0.684	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.368	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.474	-
predicted_AVG	0.197	-
predicted_BB	0.316	-
predicted_H	0.630	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.257	-
predicted_R	0.368	-
predicted_RBI	0.760	-
predicted_SLG	0.309	-
predicted_SO	0.684	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.408	0.040
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.702	0.228
predicted_AVG	0.197	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.326	0.010
predicted_H	0.710	0.080
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.257	0.000
predicted_R	0.441	0.073
predicted_RBI	0.858	0.098
predicted_SLG	0.309	0.000
predicted_SO	0.778	0.094

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.70), rates preserved: AVG=0.192 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	0.2000	0.2381	0.3000	0.2000	0.2500	0.0500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	7.000	5.000	10.000	4.000	5.000	7.000	0.1842	0.2727	0.3158	0.1842	0.2632	0.1316	0.1842
season	0.20	19	-	66.000	14.000	7.000	11.000	7.000	6.000	13.000	0.2121	0.2740	0.3182	0.2121	0.1667	0.0909	0.1970

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4290
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8250
predicted_AVG	0.1969
predicted_BB	0.3320
predicted_H	0.7530
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.2574
predicted_R	0.4800
predicted_RBI	0.9100
predicted_SLG	0.3092
predicted_SO	0.8280

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3680	0.4290	0.4076	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4740	3.8250	3.7022	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1970	0.1969	0.1969	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3160	0.3320	0.3264	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6300	0.7530	0.7099	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2570	0.2574	0.2573	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3680	0.4800	0.4408	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7600	0.9100	0.8575	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3090	0.3092	0.3091	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6840	0.8280	0.7776	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.212

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260504_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	663837
playerID	663837
playerName	Matt Vierling
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	DET
teamID	10

Spencer Torkelson (679529) · BATTER · 1B · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 33

All-history rows before 20260505: 33

System season_avg: 0.2210

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2212

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	0.000	0.818	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.424	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.424	4.000	0.576	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.234	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.221	0.000	0.279	0.500
predicted_BB	0.606	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.606	0.000	-0.606	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_H	0.640	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.758	0.000	1.242	2.000
predicted_HR	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.321	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.338	0.000	0.162	0.500
predicted_R	0.394	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.394	0.000	-0.394	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.424	0.000	-0.424	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.489	0.750	0.750	Hitting_SLG	0.434	0.000	0.316	0.750
predicted_SO	1.212	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.212	3.000	0.788	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.424	-
predicted_AVG	0.234	-
predicted_BB	0.606	-
predicted_H	0.640	-
predicted_HR	0.200	-
predicted_OBP	0.321	-
predicted_R	0.394	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.489	-
predicted_SO	1.212	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.157	-0.025
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.597	0.173
predicted_AVG	0.234	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.524	-0.082
predicted_H	0.784	0.144
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.243	0.043
predicted_OBP	0.321	0.000
predicted_R	0.443	0.049
predicted_RBI	0.402	0.072
predicted_SLG	0.489	0.000
predicted_SO	1.343	0.131

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.60), rates preserved: AVG=0.218 HR/AB=0.068

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, BvP AVG=0.167)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	0.2105	0.2857	0.3684	0.2105	0.0526	0.1053	0.1053	0.4210
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	10.000	3.000	4.000	5.000	6.000	5.000	13.000	0.2703	0.3571	0.6757	0.2703	0.1081	0.1351	0.1351	0.3513
season	0.20	33	-	113.000	25.000	6.000	6.000	14.000	13.000	20.000	40.000	0.2212	0.3383	0.4336	0.2212	0.0531	0.1239	0.1770	0.3540

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1440
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6900
predicted_AVG	0.2336
predicted_BB	0.4800
predicted_H	0.8620
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.2660
predicted_OBP	0.3212
predicted_R	0.4690
predicted_RBI	0.4410
predicted_SLG	0.4890
predicted_SO	1.4140

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.1440	0.1573	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4240	3.6900	3.5969	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2340	0.2336	0.2337	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6060	0.4800	0.5241	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6400	0.8620	0.7843	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2000	0.2660	0.2429	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3210	0.3212	0.3211	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3940	0.4690	0.4427	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.4410	0.4022	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4890	0.4890	0.4890	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2120	1.4140	1.3433	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.221

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260504_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	679529
playerID	679529
playerName	Spencer Torkelson
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	DET
teamID	10

Hao-Yu Lee (701678) · BATTER · 2B · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 10

All-history rows before 20260505: 10

System season_avg: 0.1880

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1875

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.200	2.000	2.000	Hitting_AB	3.200	4.000	-1.200	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.188	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_BB	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.450	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.266	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.257	0.000	0.076	0.333
predicted_R	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_SO	1.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.200	1.000	-1.200	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.200	-
predicted_AVG	0.188	-
predicted_BB	0.300	-
predicted_H	0.450	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.266	-
predicted_R	0.200	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.250	-
predicted_SO	1.200	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.200	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.188	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.329	0.029
predicted_H	0.547	0.097
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.266	0.000
predicted_R	0.200	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.315	0.055
predicted_SLG	0.250	0.000
predicted_SO	1.200	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.20), rates preserved: AVG=0.171 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	0.1875	0.2778	0.2500	0.1875	0.1250	0.1250	0.3750
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	6.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	12.000	0.1875	0.2571	0.2500	0.1875	0.0938	0.0938	0.3750
season	0.20	10	-	32.000	6.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	12.000	0.1875	0.2571	0.2500	0.1875	0.0938	0.0938	0.3750

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.2000
predicted_AVG	0.1875
predicted_BB	0.3450
predicted_H	0.6000
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.2664
predicted_R	0.2000
predicted_RBI	0.3450
predicted_SLG	0.2500
predicted_SO	1.2000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2000	3.2000	3.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1880	0.1875	0.1877	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3000	0.3450	0.3292	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4500	0.6000	0.5475	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2660	0.2664	0.2663	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.3450	0.3152	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.188

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260504_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	701678
playerID	701678
playerName	Hao-Yu Lee
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	DET
teamID	10

Wenceel Pérez (672761) · BATTER · RF · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 16

All-history rows before 20260505: 16

System season_avg: 0.1090

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1091

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_2B	0.062	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.062	0.000	-0.062
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.438	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.438	4.000	0.562
predicted_AVG	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.109	0.000	-0.109
predicted_BB	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	-0.250
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.540	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.375	0.000	-0.375
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.254	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.169	0.000	-0.169
predicted_R	0.188	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.188	0.000	-0.188
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.125	0.000	-0.125
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.188	0.000	-0.188
predicted_SLG	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.127	0.000	-0.127
predicted_SO	0.437	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.438	1.000	0.562

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.062	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.438	-
predicted_AVG	0.190	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.540	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.254	-
predicted_R	0.188	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.230	-
predicted_SO	0.437	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	0.049
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.418	-0.020
predicted_AVG	0.190	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.282	0.032
predicted_H	0.609	0.069
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.254	-0.000
predicted_R	0.253	0.065
predicted_RBI	0.259	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.230	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.499	0.062

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.44), rates preserved: AVG=0.177 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.2353	0.3158	0.2941	0.2353	0.1177	0.1177	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	0.1765	0.2222	0.2059	0.1765	0.0588	0.0588	0.1471
season	0.20	16	-	55.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	7.000	0.1091	0.1695	0.1273	0.1091	0.0364	0.0727	0.1273

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1380
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4070
predicted_AVG	0.1895
predicted_BB	0.3000
predicted_H	0.6460
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.2538
predicted_R	0.2880
predicted_RBI	0.2750
predicted_SLG	0.2299
predicted_SO	0.5330

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0620	0.1380	0.1114	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4380	3.4070	3.4179	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1900	0.1895	0.1897	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.3000	0.2825	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5400	0.6460	0.6089	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2540	0.2538	0.2539	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1880	0.2880	0.2530	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.2750	0.2593	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2300	0.2299	0.2299	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4370	0.5330	0.4994	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.109

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260504_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	672761
playerID	672761
playerName	Wenceel Pérez
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	DET
teamID	10

Kevin McGonigle (805808) · BATTER · SS · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 33

All-history rows before 20260505: 33

System season_avg: 0.3180

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3178

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_3B	0.061	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_AB	3.909	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.909	4.000	0.091	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.281	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.318	0.500	-0.068	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.576	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.576	0.000	-0.576	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.242	2.000	-0.242	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.375	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.409	0.500	-0.159	-0.250
predicted_R	0.727	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.727	1.000	-0.727	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.560	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.485	2.000	-0.485	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.357	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.481	0.500	-0.231	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.576	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.576	0.000	0.424	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.333	-
predicted_3B	0.061	-
predicted_AB	3.909	-
predicted_AVG	0.281	-
predicted_BB	0.576	-
predicted_H	1.000	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.375	-
predicted_R	0.727	-
predicted_RBI	0.560	-
predicted_SLG	0.357	-
predicted_SO	0.576	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.206	-0.127
predicted_3B	0.029	-0.032
predicted_AB	3.957	0.048
predicted_AVG	0.281	0.000
predicted_BB	0.566	-0.010
predicted_H	1.077	0.077
predicted_HBP	0.041	-
predicted_HR	0.044	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.375	0.000
predicted_R	0.603	-0.124
predicted_RBI	0.606	0.046
predicted_SLG	0.357	0.000
predicted_SO	0.588	0.012

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.96), rates preserved: AVG=0.272 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.909

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	0.2500	0.3478	0.2500	0.2500	0.0000	0.2000	0.1500	0.1500
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	12.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	6.000	5.000	6.000	0.3000	0.3913	0.4250	0.3000	0.0250	0.1250	0.1250	0.1500
season	0.20	33	-	129.000	41.000	11.000	2.000	2.000	16.000	24.000	19.000	19.000	0.3178	0.4094	0.4806	0.3178	0.0155	0.1240	0.1473	0.1473

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1380
predicted_3B	0.0120
predicted_AB	3.9820
predicted_AVG	0.2811
predicted_BB	0.5600
predicted_H	1.1190
predicted_HBP	0.0410
predicted_HR	0.0470
predicted_OBP	0.3753
predicted_R	0.5360
predicted_RBI	0.6310
predicted_SLG	0.3574
predicted_SO	0.5950

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3330	0.1380	0.2063	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0610	0.0120	0.0291	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9090	3.9820	3.9565	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2810	0.2811	0.2811	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5760	0.5600	0.5656	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0000	1.1190	1.0774	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0410	0.0410	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0470	0.0445	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3750	0.3753	0.3752	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7270	0.5360	0.6028	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5600	0.6310	0.6061	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3570	0.3574	0.3573	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5760	0.5950	0.5883	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.318

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS-3B
gameID	20260503_TEX@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	805808
playerID	805808
playerName	Kevin McGonigle
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	DET
teamID	10

Riley Greene (682985) · BATTER · LF · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 35

All-history rows before 20260505: 35

System season_avg: 0.2910

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2913

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.257	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.257	1.000	-0.257	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.629	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.629	4.000	-0.629	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.285	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.291	0.250	-0.291	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.600	0.000	0.400	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_H	0.890	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.057	1.000	-1.057	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.380	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.392	0.250	-0.142	0.000
predicted_R	0.686	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.686	0.000	-0.686	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.543	0.000	-0.543	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.407	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.457	0.500	-0.457	-0.500
predicted_SO	1.171	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.171	2.000	0.829	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.257	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.629	-
predicted_AVG	0.285	-
predicted_BB	0.600	-
predicted_H	0.890	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.380	-
predicted_R	0.686	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.407	-
predicted_SO	1.171	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.206	-0.051
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.660	0.031
predicted_AVG	0.285	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.579	-0.021
predicted_H	0.991	0.101
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.087	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.380	0.000
predicted_R	0.723	0.037
predicted_RBI	0.288	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.407	0.000
predicted_SO	1.454	0.283

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.66), rates preserved: AVG=0.271 HR/AB=0.024

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	9.000	0.2778	0.3810	0.3333	0.2778	0.0000	0.0556	0.1667	0.5000
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	11.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	7.000	5.000	16.000	0.2895	0.3721	0.4737	0.2895	0.0526	0.0790	0.1316	0.4210
season	0.20	35	-	127.000	37.000	9.000	4.000	19.000	24.000	21.000	41.000	0.2913	0.3919	0.4567	0.2913	0.0315	0.1496	0.1653	0.3228

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1780
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6760
predicted_AVG	0.2846
predicted_BB	0.5670
predicted_H	1.0460
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0910
predicted_OBP	0.3801
predicted_R	0.7430
predicted_RBI	0.3030
predicted_SLG	0.4071
predicted_SO	1.6060

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2570	0.1780	0.2056	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6290	3.6760	3.6596	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2850	0.2846	0.2847	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6000	0.5670	0.5786	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8900	1.0460	0.9914	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0910	0.0872	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3800	0.3801	0.3801	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6860	0.7430	0.7230	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.3030	0.2880	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4070	0.4071	0.4071	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1710	1.6060	1.4538	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.291

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260504_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	682985
playerID	682985
playerName	Riley Greene
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	DET
teamID	10

Zach McKinstry (656716) · BATTER · 3B · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 13

All-history rows before 20260505: 13

System season_avg: 0.2090

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2093

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.308	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.308	2.000	-0.308	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.206	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.209	0.500	-0.209	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.231	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.530	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.692	1.000	-0.692	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.259	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.261	0.500	-0.261	-0.500
predicted_R	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.385	0.000	-0.385	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.308	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.326	0.500	-0.326	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.769	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.769	1.000	-0.769	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.308	-
predicted_AVG	0.206	-
predicted_BB	0.231	-
predicted_H	0.530	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.259	-
predicted_R	0.154	-
predicted_RBI	0.190	-
predicted_SLG	0.308	-
predicted_SO	0.769	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.178	0.024
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.320	0.012
predicted_AVG	0.206	0.000
predicted_BB	0.237	0.006
predicted_H	0.631	0.101
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.046	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.259	0.000
predicted_R	0.178	0.024
predicted_RBI	0.225	0.035
predicted_SLG	0.308	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.703	-0.066

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.32), rates preserved: AVG=0.190 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.1875	0.2353	0.2500	0.1875	0.0000	0.0000	0.0625	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	3.000	7.000	0.2286	0.2895	0.3714	0.2286	0.0286	0.1429	0.0857	0.2000
season	0.20	13	-	43.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	3.000	10.000	0.2093	0.2609	0.3256	0.2093	0.0233	0.1163	0.0698	0.2326

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1910
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.3270
predicted_AVG	0.2062
predicted_BB	0.2400
predicted_H	0.6860
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0490
predicted_OBP	0.2594
predicted_R	0.1910
predicted_RBI	0.2440
predicted_SLG	0.3076
predicted_SO	0.6680

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1540	0.1910	0.1781	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3080	3.3270	3.3203	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2060	0.2062	0.2061	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2310	0.2400	0.2369	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5300	0.6860	0.6314	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0490	0.0459	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2590	0.2594	0.2593	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1540	0.1910	0.1781	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1900	0.2440	0.2251	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3080	0.3076	0.3077	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7690	0.6680	0.7034	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.209

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260415_KC@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	656716
playerID	656716
playerName	Zach McKinstry
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	DET
teamID	10

Framber Valdez (664285) · PITCHER · Starter · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 7

All-history rows before 20260505: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.143	2.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_IP	6.000	6.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.729	6.000	0.271	0.000
predicted_SO	7.000	7.000	-	Pitching_SO	4.571	8.000	2.429	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 6.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	28.333	14.000	27.000	11.000	22.000	2.000	4.4471	1.3412	0.4941	0.9529	0.3882	0.7765	0.0706
last_10	0.35	7	40.333	15.000	37.000	14.000	32.000	2.000	3.3471	1.2645	0.3719	0.9174	0.3471	0.7934	0.0496
season	0.20	7	40.333	15.000	37.000	14.000	32.000	2.000	3.3471	1.2645	0.3719	0.9174	0.3471	0.7934	0.0496

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.0910
predicted_ER	2.4410
predicted_ERA	3.8421
predicted_H	5.3380
predicted_HR	0.3380
predicted_IP	5.7190
predicted_SO	4.4940
predicted_WHIP	1.2990

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	2.0910	2.4091	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.4410	2.2866	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8421	3.8421	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	5.3380	4.5197	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.3380	0.2197	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	6.0000	5.7190	5.8173	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	7.0000	4.4940	5.3711	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2990	1.2990	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	6.0
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	3
SO	7
HR	0
BF	23
Pitches	109

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	25
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	3.35
Pitching_Flyouts	5
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	6
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	99
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	8
Pitching_Strikes	67
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260430_DET@ATL
game_type	full
mlbID	664285
playerID	664285
playerName	Framber Valdez
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10

Kenley Jansen (445276) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 11

All-history rows before 20260505: 11

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.455	0.000	-0.455
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.673	1.000	0.327
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.909	1.000	0.091

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.667	2.000	5.000	3.000	4.000	1.000	3.8571	1.7143	0.4286	1.0714	0.6429	0.8571	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	8.333	3.000	7.000	4.000	10.000	2.000	3.2400	1.3200	0.3600	0.8400	0.4800	1.2000	0.2400
season	0.20	10	8.333	3.000	7.000	4.000	10.000	2.000	3.2400	1.3200	0.3600	0.8400	0.4800	1.2000	0.2400

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4860
predicted_ER	0.3430
predicted_ERA	3.5177
predicted_H	0.8290
predicted_HR	0.2010
predicted_IP	0.8780
predicted_SO	0.9180
predicted_WHIP	1.4974

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.4860	1.0159	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3430	0.2230	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5177	3.5177	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8290	0.5388	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2010	0.1307	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.8780	0.9207	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9180	0.9467	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4974	1.4974	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	2
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	27

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.40
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	10
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	445276
playerID	445276
playerName	Kenley Jansen
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10

Kyle Finnegan (640448) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 16

All-history rows before 20260505: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.062	0.000	-0.062
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.969	1.000	0.031
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.812	1.000	0.188

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.667	1.000	5.000	2.000	8.000	1.000	1.5882	1.2353	0.1765	0.8823	0.3529	1.4118	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	11.333	1.000	9.000	3.000	10.000	1.000	0.7941	1.0588	0.0882	0.7941	0.2647	0.8823	0.0882
season	0.20	16	16.667	1.000	10.000	10.000	13.000	1.000	0.5400	1.2000	0.0600	0.6000	0.6000	0.7800	0.0600

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4140
predicted_ER	0.1360
predicted_ERA	1.1006
predicted_H	0.8860
predicted_HR	0.1360
predicted_IP	1.1150
predicted_SO	1.2270
predicted_WHIP	1.1665

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4140	0.6191	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1360	0.0884	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.1006	1.1006	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8860	0.9259	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1360	0.0884	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.1150	1.0747	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.2270	1.1476	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1665	1.1665	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.54
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	10
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_TEX@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	640448
playerID	640448
playerName	Kyle Finnegan
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10

Tyler Holton (663947) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team DET

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 15

All-history rows before 20260505: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.533	0.000	2.467	3.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.807	1.000	0.193	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.733	1.000	-0.733	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.667	4.000	11.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	7.7143	2.7857	0.8571	2.3571	0.4286	0.6429	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	9.667	8.000	19.000	5.000	8.000	2.000	7.4483	2.4828	0.8276	1.9655	0.5172	0.8276	0.2069
season	0.20	15	14.667	8.000	20.000	8.000	11.000	2.000	4.9091	1.9091	0.5454	1.3636	0.5454	0.7500	0.1364

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4610
predicted_ER	0.7480
predicted_ERA	7.0602
predicted_H	1.9280
predicted_HR	0.1870
predicted_IP	0.9540
predicted_SO	0.6950
predicted_WHIP	2.5044

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4610	0.2997	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	0.7480	1.5362	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	7.0602	7.0602	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	1.9280	2.3032	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1870	0.4715	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9540	0.9701	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.6950	0.4517	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	2.5044	2.5044	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	3
R	3
ER	3
BB	0
SO	0
HR	1
BF	6
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.91
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	16
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_BOS@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	663947
playerID	663947
playerName	Tyler Holton
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	DET
teamID	10

20260505_CHW@LAA

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 2, "confidence": 0.7658119047619047, "home_win_probability": 0.23418809523809525, "away_win_probability": 0.7658119047619047, "predicted_score_text": "CHW 5 - 2 LAA", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 1, "predicted_score_text": "CHW 6 - 1 LAA", "confidence": 0.7658119047619047, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 1, "score_text": "CHW 6 - 1 LAA", "winner": "CHW"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "CHW 5 - 2 LAA", "winner": "CHW"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -1, "home_run_delta": 1, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Away Team: CHW

Luisangel Acuña (682668) · BATTER · SS · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 22

All-history rows before 20260505: 22

System season_avg: 0.1740

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1739

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.045	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.136	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.136	3.000	-0.136	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.107	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.174	0.333	0.159	0.000
predicted_BB	0.273	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.273	1.000	0.727	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.045	1.000	-0.045	-1.000
predicted_H	0.260	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.545	1.000	0.455	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.249	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.247	0.500	0.253	0.000
predicted_R	0.318	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.318	0.000	0.682	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.136	0.000	-0.136	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.227	0.000	-0.227	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.122	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.188	0.333	0.145	0.000
predicted_SO	0.455	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.455	0.000	-0.455	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.045	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.136	-
predicted_AVG	0.107	-
predicted_BB	0.273	-
predicted_H	0.260	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.249	-
predicted_R	0.318	-
predicted_RBI	0.050	-
predicted_SLG	0.122	-
predicted_SO	0.455	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.042	-0.003
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.890	-0.246
predicted_AVG	0.107	0.000
predicted_BB	0.433	0.160
predicted_H	0.283	0.023
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.249	0.000
predicted_R	0.278	-0.040
predicted_RBI	0.054	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.122	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.383	-0.072

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.14), rates preserved: AVG=0.090 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	12.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	0.0833	0.2667	0.0833	0.0833	0.0000	0.2500	0.0833
last_10	0.35	10	-	30.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	5.000	0.1000	0.2286	0.1333	0.1000	0.0333	0.1667	0.1667
season	0.20	22	-	69.000	12.000	1.000	3.000	7.000	6.000	10.000	0.1739	0.2468	0.1884	0.1739	0.0435	0.0870	0.1449

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0400
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.7570
predicted_AVG	0.1073
predicted_BB	0.5190
predicted_H	0.2960
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.2494
predicted_R	0.2560
predicted_RBI	0.0560
predicted_SLG	0.1218
predicted_SO	0.3440

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0450	0.0400	0.0418	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1360	2.7570	2.8897	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1070	0.1073	0.1072	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2730	0.5190	0.4329	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.2600	0.2960	0.2834	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2490	0.2494	0.2493	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3180	0.2560	0.2777	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0500	0.0560	0.0539	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1220	0.1218	0.1219	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4550	0.3440	0.3829	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.174

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS-CF
gameID	20260428_LAA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	682668
playerID	682668
playerName	Luisangel Acuña
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	CHW
teamID	6

Randal Grichuk (545341) · BATTER · RF · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 0

All-history rows before 20260505: 0

System season_avg: 0.1790

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): -

Diff (system - data): -

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.300	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	-	-	-	-
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	-	-	-	-
predicted_AB	2.800	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	-	-	-	-
predicted_AVG	0.239	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	-	-	-	-
predicted_BB	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	-	-	-	-
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	-	-	-	-
predicted_H	0.610	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	-	-	-	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	-	-	-	-
predicted_OBP	0.251	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	-	-	-	-
predicted_R	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	-	-	-	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	-	-	-	-
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	-	-	-	-
predicted_SLG	0.382	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.300	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.800	-
predicted_AVG	0.239	-
predicted_BB	0.100	-
predicted_H	0.610	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.251	-
predicted_R	0.300	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.382	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.383	0.083
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.917	0.117
predicted_AVG	0.239	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.073	-0.027
predicted_H	0.676	0.066
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.251	-0.000
predicted_R	0.328	0.028
predicted_RBI	0.269	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.382	0.000
predicted_SO	0.949	-0.051

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.92), rates preserved: AVG=0.232 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	5.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	0.3125	0.3125	0.5000	0.3125	0.1250	0.0000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	28.000	5.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	10.000	0.1786	0.2000	0.2857	0.1786	0.0714	0.0357	0.3571
season	0.20	10	-	28.000	5.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	10.000	0.1786	0.2000	0.2857	0.1786	0.0714	0.0357	0.3571

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4270
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.9800
predicted_AVG	0.2389
predicted_BB	0.0590
predicted_H	0.7120
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.2506
predicted_R	0.3430
predicted_RBI	0.2850
predicted_SLG	0.3821
predicted_SO	0.9210

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3000	0.4270	0.3826	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8000	2.9800	2.9170	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2390	0.2389	0.2389	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1000	0.0590	0.0733	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6100	0.7120	0.6763	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2510	0.2506	0.2507	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3000	0.3430	0.3280	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2400	0.2850	0.2692	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3820	0.3821	0.3821	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9210	0.9486	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.179

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

Chase Meidroth (805367) · BATTER · 2B · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 32

All-history rows before 20260505: 32

System season_avg: 0.2680

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2683

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.219	2.000	2.000	Hitting_2B	0.219	0.000	1.781	2.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.844	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.844	5.000	1.156	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.296	0.600	0.600	Hitting_AVG	0.268	0.200	0.332	0.400
predicted_BB	0.469	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.469	0.000	-0.469	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.050	3.000	3.000	Hitting_H	1.031	1.000	1.969	2.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.360	0.600	0.600	Hitting_OBP	0.345	0.200	0.255	0.400
predicted_R	0.656	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.656	0.000	0.344	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.125	1.000	-0.125	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.376	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.350	0.200	0.650	0.800
predicted_SO	1.031	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.031	3.000	-1.031	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.219	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.844	-
predicted_AVG	0.296	-
predicted_BB	0.469	-
predicted_H	1.050	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.360	-
predicted_R	0.656	-
predicted_RBI	0.170	-
predicted_SLG	0.376	-
predicted_SO	1.031	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.266	0.047
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.902	0.058
predicted_AVG	0.296	0.000
predicted_BB	0.433	-0.036
predicted_H	1.125	0.075
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.007	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.360	-0.000
predicted_R	0.685	0.029
predicted_RBI	0.180	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.376	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.222	0.191

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.90), rates preserved: AVG=0.288 HR/AB=0.002

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	2.000	2.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.844

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	7.000	0.3000	0.3636	0.4000	0.3000	0.0000	0.0500	0.1000	0.3500
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	12.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	14.000	0.3077	0.3636	0.3590	0.3077	0.0000	0.0513	0.1026	0.3590
season	0.20	32	-	123.000	33.000	7.000	1.000	4.000	21.000	15.000	33.000	0.2683	0.3453	0.3496	0.2683	0.0081	0.0325	0.1220	0.2683

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2920
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9340
predicted_AVG	0.2964
predicted_BB	0.4140
predicted_H	1.1660
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0060
predicted_OBP	0.3599
predicted_R	0.7000
predicted_RBI	0.1850
predicted_SLG	0.3756
predicted_SO	1.3250

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2190	0.2920	0.2664	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8440	3.9340	3.9025	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2960	0.2964	0.2963	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4690	0.4140	0.4333	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0500	1.1660	1.1254	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0060	0.0074	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3600	0.3599	0.3599	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6560	0.7000	0.6846	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1700	0.1850	0.1797	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3760	0.3756	0.3757	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0310	1.3250	1.2221	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	3
2B	2
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.268

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260504_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	805367
playerID	805367
playerName	Chase Meidroth
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	CHW
teamID	6

Sam Antonacci (803011) · BATTER · LF · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 15

All-history rows before 20260505: 15

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.133	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_3B	0.133	1.000	1.000	Hitting_3B	0.133	0.000	0.867	1.000
predicted_AB	3.467	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.467	4.000	0.533	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.334	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.500	0.000	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.400	1.000	-0.400	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_H	0.880	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.867	2.000	0.133	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.431	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.365	0.600	-0.115	-0.350
predicted_R	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.600	2.000	0.400	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.467	0.000	0.533	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.488	0.750	0.750	Hitting_SLG	0.423	0.500	0.327	0.250
predicted_SO	0.467	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.467	1.000	-0.467	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.133	-
predicted_3B	0.133	-
predicted_AB	3.467	-
predicted_AVG	0.334	-
predicted_BB	0.400	-
predicted_H	0.880	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.431	-
predicted_R	0.600	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.488	-
predicted_SO	0.467	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.168	0.035
predicted_3B	0.144	0.011
predicted_AB	3.445	-0.022
predicted_AVG	0.334	0.000
predicted_BB	0.457	0.057
predicted_H	1.054	0.174
predicted_HBP	0.128	-
predicted_HR	0.012	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.431	-0.000
predicted_R	0.681	0.081
predicted_RBI	0.381	0.061
predicted_SLG	0.488	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.593	0.126

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.304 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	1.000	1.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	4.000	0.3889	0.4762	0.5556	0.3889	0.0000	0.1111	0.1667	0.2222
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	10.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	7.000	4.000	6.000	0.3125	0.4103	0.4375	0.3125	0.0000	0.1250	0.1250	0.1875
season	0.20	15	-	52.000	13.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	9.000	6.000	7.000	0.2500	0.3651	0.4231	0.2500	0.0192	0.1346	0.1154	0.1346

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1870
predicted_3B	0.1500
predicted_AB	3.4330
predicted_AVG	0.3344
predicted_BB	0.4870
predicted_H	1.1480
predicted_HBP	0.1280
predicted_HR	0.0130
predicted_OBP	0.4309
predicted_R	0.7250
predicted_RBI	0.4140
predicted_SLG	0.4878
predicted_SO	0.6610

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1330	0.1870	0.1681	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.1330	0.1500	0.1441	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4670	3.4330	3.4449	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3340	0.3344	0.3343	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4000	0.4870	0.4566	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8800	1.1480	1.0542	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1280	0.1280	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0130	0.0119	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4310	0.4309	0.4309	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6000	0.7250	0.6813	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.4140	0.3811	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4880	0.4878	0.4879	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4670	0.6610	0.5931	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	1
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260504_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	803011
playerID	803011
playerName	Sam Antonacci
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	CHW
teamID	6

Edgar Quero (700337) · BATTER · C · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 21

All-history rows before 20260505: 21

System season_avg: 0.1670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.048	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.429	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.429	4.000	0.571	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.171	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.167	0.250	-0.167	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.381	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.381	0.000	-0.381	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.510	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.571	1.000	-0.571	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.243	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.256	0.250	-0.256	-0.250
predicted_R	0.095	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.095	0.000	-0.095	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.238	1.000	-0.238	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.184	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.181	0.250	-0.181	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.857	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.857	2.000	1.143	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.048	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.429	-
predicted_AVG	0.171	-
predicted_BB	0.381	-
predicted_H	0.510	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.243	-
predicted_R	0.095	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.184	-
predicted_SO	0.857	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.045	-0.003
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.459	0.030
predicted_AVG	0.171	0.000
predicted_BB	0.271	-0.110
predicted_H	0.565	0.055
predicted_HBP	0.135	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.243	-0.000
predicted_R	0.128	0.033
predicted_RBI	0.292	0.032
predicted_SLG	0.184	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.872	0.015

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.46), rates preserved: AVG=0.163 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	0.1765	0.2222	0.1765	0.1765	0.0588	0.0000	0.2353
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	6.000	1.000	5.000	1.000	4.000	10.000	0.1667	0.2619	0.1944	0.1667	0.1389	0.1111	0.2778
season	0.20	21	-	72.000	12.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	8.000	18.000	0.1667	0.2561	0.1806	0.1667	0.0694	0.1111	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0430
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4760
predicted_AVG	0.1711
predicted_BB	0.2120
predicted_H	0.5950
predicted_HBP	0.1350
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.2429
predicted_R	0.1450
predicted_RBI	0.3090
predicted_SLG	0.1836
predicted_SO	0.8800

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0480	0.0430	0.0447	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4290	3.4760	3.4595	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1710	0.1711	0.1711	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3810	0.2120	0.2712	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5100	0.5950	0.5653	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1350	0.1350	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2430	0.2429	0.2429	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0950	0.1450	0.1275	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.3090	0.2918	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1840	0.1836	0.1837	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8570	0.8800	0.8720	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.167

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260502_CHW@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	700337
playerID	700337
playerName	Edgar Quero
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	CHW
teamID	6

Miguel Vargas (678246) · BATTER · 1B · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 32

All-history rows before 20260505: 32

System season_avg: 0.2250

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2250

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.031	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_AB	3.750	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.750	5.000	1.250	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.281	0.400	0.400	Hitting_AVG	0.225	0.400	0.175	0.000
predicted_BB	0.719	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.719	0.000	-0.719	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.950	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.844	2.000	1.156	0.000
predicted_HR	0.180	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.219	1.000	0.781	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.392	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.356	0.400	0.044	0.000
predicted_R	0.719	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.719	1.000	0.281	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.590	3.000	3.000	Hitting_RBI	0.562	1.000	2.438	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.156	0.000	-0.156	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.458	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.450	1.000	0.550	0.000
predicted_SO	0.750	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	1.000	-0.750	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.031	-
predicted_AB	3.750	-
predicted_AVG	0.281	-
predicted_BB	0.719	-
predicted_H	0.950	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.392	-
predicted_R	0.719	-
predicted_RBI	0.590	-
predicted_SLG	0.458	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.084	-0.041
predicted_3B	0.015	-0.016
predicted_AB	3.834	0.084
predicted_AVG	0.281	0.000
predicted_BB	0.705	-0.014
predicted_H	1.042	0.092
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.196	0.016
predicted_OBP	0.392	-0.000
predicted_R	0.578	-0.141
predicted_RBI	0.648	0.058
predicted_SLG	0.458	0.000
predicted_SO	0.856	0.106

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.272 HR/AB=0.051

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	3.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	0.3000	0.3913	0.4500	0.3000	0.0500	0.2000	0.1500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	11.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	6.000	5.000	8.000	9.000	0.2895	0.4130	0.4737	0.2895	0.0526	0.1579	0.2105	0.2368
season	0.20	32	-	120.000	27.000	4.000	1.000	7.000	18.000	23.000	23.000	24.000	0.2250	0.3562	0.4500	0.2250	0.0583	0.1500	0.1917	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0620
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.8800
predicted_AVG	0.2813
predicted_BB	0.6970
predicted_H	1.0920
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.2040
predicted_OBP	0.3919
predicted_R	0.5020
predicted_RBI	0.6800
predicted_SLG	0.4583
predicted_SO	0.9130

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.0620	0.0840	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0310	0.0060	0.0147	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7500	3.8800	3.8345	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2810	0.2813	0.2812	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7190	0.6970	0.7047	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9500	1.0920	1.0423	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.2040	0.1956	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3920	0.3919	0.3919	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7190	0.5020	0.5779	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5900	0.6800	0.6485	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4580	0.4583	0.4582	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.9130	0.8559	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.225

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260504_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	678246
playerID	678246
playerName	Miguel Vargas
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	CHW
teamID	6

Colson Montgomery (695657) · BATTER · 3B · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 33

All-history rows before 20260505: 33

System season_avg: 0.2230

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2231

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.152	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.152	0.000	-0.152	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.667	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.667	5.000	0.333	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.190	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.223	0.200	0.027	0.050
predicted_BB	0.394	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.394	0.000	-0.394	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_H	0.630	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.818	1.000	0.182	0.000
predicted_HR	0.200	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.273	0.000	0.727	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.332	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.200	-0.083	0.050
predicted_R	0.455	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.455	0.000	0.545	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.550	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.697	1.000	0.303	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.378	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.488	0.200	0.512	0.800
predicted_SO	1.212	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.212	2.000	-0.212	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.152	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.667	-
predicted_AVG	0.190	-
predicted_BB	0.394	-
predicted_H	0.630	-
predicted_HR	0.200	-
predicted_OBP	0.332	-
predicted_R	0.455	-
predicted_RBI	0.550	-
predicted_SLG	0.378	-
predicted_SO	1.212	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.073	-0.079
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.609	-0.058
predicted_AVG	0.190	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.537	0.143
predicted_H	0.662	0.032
predicted_HBP	0.149	-
predicted_HR	0.209	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.332	-0.000
predicted_R	0.450	-0.005
predicted_RBI	0.572	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.378	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.020	-0.192

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.181 HR/AB=0.057

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	0.1667	0.3182	0.3333	0.1667	0.0556	0.1667	0.2222	0.2222
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	7.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	5.000	9.000	0.2000	0.3488	0.3714	0.2000	0.0571	0.1429	0.1429	0.2571
season	0.20	33	-	121.000	27.000	5.000	9.000	23.000	15.000	13.000	40.000	0.2231	0.3333	0.4876	0.2231	0.0744	0.1901	0.1074	0.3306

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0300
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5780
predicted_AVG	0.1896
predicted_BB	0.6140
predicted_H	0.6790
predicted_HBP	0.1490
predicted_HR	0.2140
predicted_OBP	0.3319
predicted_R	0.4470
predicted_RBI	0.5830
predicted_SLG	0.3775
predicted_SO	0.9160

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1520	0.0300	0.0727	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6670	3.5780	3.6091	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1900	0.1896	0.1897	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3940	0.6140	0.5370	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6300	0.6790	0.6619	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1490	0.1490	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2000	0.2140	0.2091	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3320	0.3319	0.3319	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4550	0.4470	0.4498	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5500	0.5830	0.5715	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3780	0.3775	0.3777	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2120	0.9160	1.0196	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.223

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260504_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	695657
playerID	695657
playerName	Colson Montgomery
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	CHW
teamID	6

Andrew Benintendi (643217) · BATTER · DH · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 24

All-history rows before 20260505: 24

System season_avg: 0.2450

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2447

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.083	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_AB	3.917	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.917	5.000	0.083	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.294	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.245	0.800	0.005	-0.550
predicted_BB	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.950	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.958	4.000	0.042	-3.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.311	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.273	0.800	-0.023	-0.550
predicted_R	0.417	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.417	0.000	-0.417	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.530	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.542	1.000	-0.542	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.380	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.394	0.800	-0.144	-0.550
predicted_SO	1.375	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.375	0.000	-0.375	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.083	-
predicted_AB	3.917	-
predicted_AVG	0.294	-
predicted_BB	0.167	-
predicted_H	0.950	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.311	-
predicted_R	0.417	-
predicted_RBI	0.530	-
predicted_SLG	0.380	-
predicted_SO	1.375	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.101	-0.066
predicted_3B	0.040	-0.043
predicted_AB	3.934	0.017
predicted_AVG	0.294	0.000
predicted_BB	0.165	-0.002
predicted_H	1.087	0.137
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.076	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.311	0.000
predicted_R	0.387	-0.030
predicted_RBI	0.609	0.079
predicted_SLG	0.380	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.247	-0.128

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.93), rates preserved: AVG=0.276 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.917

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.3333	0.3500	0.3333	0.3333	0.0000	0.1111	0.0556	0.2778
last_10	0.35	10	-	44.000	12.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	11.000	6.000	1.000	13.000	0.2727	0.2826	0.4318	0.2727	0.0454	0.2500	0.0227	0.2954
season	0.20	24	-	94.000	23.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	13.000	10.000	4.000	33.000	0.2447	0.2727	0.3936	0.2447	0.0213	0.1383	0.0425	0.3511

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0650
predicted_3B	0.0170
predicted_AB	3.9430
predicted_AVG	0.2944
predicted_BB	0.1640
predicted_H	1.1610
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0800
predicted_OBP	0.3110
predicted_R	0.3710
predicted_RBI	0.6510
predicted_SLG	0.3798
predicted_SO	1.1780

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.0650	0.1007	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0830	0.0170	0.0401	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9170	3.9430	3.9339	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2940	0.2944	0.2943	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1670	0.1640	0.1651	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9500	1.1610	1.0872	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0800	0.0765	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3110	0.3110	0.3110	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4170	0.3710	0.3871	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5300	0.6510	0.6087	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3800	0.3798	0.3799	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3750	1.1780	1.2470	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.245

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.8
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	4
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260504_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	643217
playerID	643217
playerName	Andrew Benintendi
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	CHW
teamID	6

Derek Hill (656537) · BATTER · CF · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 9

All-history rows before 20260505: 9

System season_avg: 0.2080

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2083

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.667	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	2.667	3.000	1.333	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.208	0.000	-0.208	0.000
predicted_BB	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_H	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.556	0.000	-0.556	0.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.252	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.269	0.000	-0.269	0.000
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.371	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SO	1.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.222	2.000	-1.222	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.667	-
predicted_AVG	0.190	-
predicted_BB	0.222	-
predicted_H	0.410	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.252	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.130	-
predicted_SLG	0.371	-
predicted_SO	1.222	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.589	-0.078
predicted_AVG	0.190	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.215	-0.007
predicted_H	0.458	0.048
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.146	0.016
predicted_OBP	0.252	-0.000
predicted_R	0.354	0.021
predicted_RBI	0.146	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.371	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.093	-0.129

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.172 HR/AB=0.055

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	12.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.1667	0.2308	0.4167	0.1667	0.0833	0.0833	0.0833	0.3333
last_10	0.35	9	-	24.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	11.000	0.2083	0.2692	0.3333	0.2083	0.0417	0.0417	0.0833	0.4583
season	0.20	9	-	24.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	11.000	0.2083	0.2692	0.3333	0.2083	0.0417	0.0417	0.0833	0.4583

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.5470
predicted_AVG	0.1896
predicted_BB	0.2120
predicted_H	0.4830
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1540
predicted_OBP	0.2519
predicted_R	0.3660
predicted_RBI	0.1540
predicted_SLG	0.3708
predicted_SO	1.0240

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.6670	2.5470	2.5890	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1900	0.1896	0.1897	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2220	0.2120	0.2155	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4100	0.4830	0.4575	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1540	0.1456	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2520	0.2519	0.2519	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.3660	0.3544	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1300	0.1540	0.1456	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3710	0.3708	0.3709	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2220	1.0240	1.0933	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.208

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	1
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260426_WAS@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	656537
playerID	656537
playerName	Derek Hill
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	CHW
teamID	6

Erick Fedde (607200) · PITCHER · Starter · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 6

All-history rows before 20260505: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.000	2.000	-2.000	-2.000
predicted_IP	6.000	6.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.400	7.000	0.600	-1.000
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_SO	3.667	6.000	0.333	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 6.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	28.333	9.000	18.000	10.000	18.000	5.000	2.8588	0.9882	0.3176	0.6353	0.3529	0.6353	0.1765
last_10	0.35	6	33.333	12.000	24.000	11.000	22.000	5.000	3.2400	1.0500	0.3600	0.7200	0.3300	0.6600	0.1500
season	0.20	6	33.333	12.000	24.000	11.000	22.000	5.000	3.2400	1.0500	0.3600	0.7200	0.3300	0.6600	0.1500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.9080
predicted_ER	1.9110
predicted_ERA	3.0685
predicted_H	3.8220
predicted_HR	0.9080
predicted_IP	5.6060
predicted_SO	3.6370
predicted_WHIP	1.0222

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	1.9080	2.2902	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	1.9110	1.2422	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0685	3.0685	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	3.8220	3.8843	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.9080	0.9402	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	6.0000	5.6060	5.7439	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	3.6370	3.7641	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0222	1.0222	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	6.0
H	4
R	0
ER	0
BB	3
SO	4
HR	1
BF	25
Pitches	100

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	26
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	3.24
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	9
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	7.0
Pitching_Pitches	103
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	6
Pitching_Strikes	65
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260429_LAA@CHW
game_type	full
mlbID	607200
playerID	607200
playerName	Erick Fedde
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

Grant Taylor (691799) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 6

All-history rows before 20260505: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.017	1.100	-0.017	-0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.333	1.000	-0.333	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.333	0.000	4.000	1.000	7.000	0.0000	0.9375	0.0000	0.7500	0.1875	1.3125
last_10	0.35	6	6.333	1.000	6.000	2.000	8.000	1.4211	1.2632	0.1579	0.9474	0.3158	1.2632
season	0.20	6	6.333	1.000	6.000	2.000	8.000	1.4211	1.2632	0.1579	0.9474	0.3158	1.2632

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2740
predicted_ER	0.0920
predicted_ERA	0.7816
predicted_H	0.9110
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0610
predicted_SO	1.3630
predicted_WHIP	1.1166

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2740	0.1781	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0920	0.0598	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.7816	0.7816	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9110	0.5922	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0610	1.0396	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.3630	1.2359	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1166	1.1166	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	10

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.42
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	17
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260409_CHW@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	691799
playerID	691799
playerName	Grant Taylor
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

Sean Newcomb (656794) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 1

All-history rows before 20260505: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.000	2.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	2.100	2.100	-1.100	-1.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	1	2.333	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	7.7143	1.7143	0.8571	1.2857	0.4286	0.4286
last_10	0.35	1	2.333	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	7.7143	1.7143	0.8571	1.2857	0.4286	0.4286
season	0.20	1	2.333	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	7.7143	1.7143	0.8571	1.2857	0.4286	0.4286

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.0000
predicted_ER	2.0000
predicted_ERA	7.7143
predicted_H	3.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	2.3330
predicted_SO	1.0000
predicted_WHIP	1.7143

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	1.0000	0.6500	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	2.0000	1.6500	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	7.7143	7.7143	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	3.0000	2.3000	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	2.3330	1.8664	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0000	0.6500	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.7143	1.7143	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	10
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	7.71
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.1
Pitching_Pitches	33
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	26
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260326_CHW@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	656794
playerID	656794
playerName	Sean Newcomb
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

Seranthony Domínguez (622554) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHW

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 2

All-history rows before 20260505: 2

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.550	0.100	0.450	0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	1.333	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	13.5000	3.0000	1.5000	2.2500	0.7500	0.7500
last_10	0.35	2	1.333	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	13.5000	3.0000	1.5000	2.2500	0.7500	0.7500
season	0.20	2	1.333	2.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	13.5000	3.0000	1.5000	2.2500	0.7500	0.7500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5000
predicted_ER	1.0000
predicted_ERA	13.5000
predicted_H	1.5000
predicted_HR	0.5000
predicted_IP	0.6670
predicted_SO	0.0000
predicted_WHIP	3.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.5000	0.6750	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	13.5000	13.5000	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.5000	1.3250	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.5000	0.3250	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.6670	0.7835	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	3.0000	3.0000	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	13.50
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	3
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	19
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L, BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260329_CHW@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	622554
playerID	622554
playerName	Seranthony Domínguez
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHW
teamID	6

Home Team: LAA

Zach Neto (687263) · BATTER · SS · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 36

All-history rows before 20260505: 36

System season_avg: 0.2100

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2098

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.972	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.972	4.000	0.028	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.092	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.210	0.000	0.040	0.250
predicted_BB	0.611	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.611	0.000	0.389	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_H	0.330	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.833	0.000	0.167	1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.139	0.000	-0.139	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.205	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.323	0.000	0.077	0.400
predicted_R	0.639	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.639	0.000	0.361	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.417	0.000	-0.417	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.141	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.371	0.000	-0.121	0.250
predicted_SO	1.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.500	2.000	-1.500	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.222	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.972	-
predicted_AVG	0.092	-
predicted_BB	0.611	-
predicted_H	0.330	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.205	-
predicted_R	0.639	-
predicted_RBI	0.200	-
predicted_SLG	0.141	-
predicted_SO	1.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.148	-0.074
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.915	-0.057
predicted_AVG	0.092	0.000
predicted_BB	0.481	-0.130
predicted_H	0.348	0.018
predicted_HBP	0.140	-
predicted_HR	0.028	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.205	0.000
predicted_R	0.515	-0.124
predicted_RBI	0.207	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.141	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.705	0.205

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.97), rates preserved: AVG=0.088 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.972

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	9.000	0.0000	0.1429	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.1111	0.5000
last_10	0.35	10	-	42.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	20.000	0.1429	0.2174	0.1905	0.1429	0.0000	0.0952	0.0714	0.4762
season	0.20	36	-	143.000	30.000	8.000	5.000	15.000	23.000	22.000	54.000	0.2098	0.3234	0.3706	0.2098	0.0350	0.1049	0.1538	0.3776

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1080
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8840
predicted_AVG	0.0920
predicted_BB	0.4110
predicted_H	0.3570
predicted_HBP	0.1400
predicted_HR	0.0270
predicted_OBP	0.2051
predicted_R	0.4490
predicted_RBI	0.2110
predicted_SLG	0.1408
predicted_SO	1.8150

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2220	0.1080	0.1479	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9720	3.8840	3.9148	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.0920	0.0920	0.0920	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6110	0.4110	0.4810	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3300	0.3570	0.3476	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1400	0.1400	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0270	0.0280	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2050	0.2051	0.2051	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6390	0.4490	0.5155	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2000	0.2110	0.2072	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1410	0.1408	0.1409	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.5000	1.8150	1.7047	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260504_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	687263
playerID	687263
playerName	Zach Neto
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	LAA
teamID	13

Sebastián Rivero (665861) · BATTER · C · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 2

All-history rows before 20260505: 2

System season_avg: 0.5000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.5000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	2.000	1.000	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.500	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.500	0.500	-0.250	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.170	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.500	1.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.500	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.500	0.500	-0.250	-0.250
predicted_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.500	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.500	0.500	0.000	0.000
predicted_SO	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.500	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	1.170	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.500	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.000	-
predicted_SLG	0.500	-
predicted_SO	0.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.500	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.385	0.215
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.500	0.000
predicted_R	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.500	0.000
predicted_SO	0.500	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.462 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	2	-	6.000	3.000	1.000	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	0.1667
last_10	0.35	2	-	6.000	3.000	1.000	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	0.1667
season	0.20	2	-	6.000	3.000	1.000	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	0.1667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.0000
predicted_AVG	0.5000
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_H	1.5000
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.5000
predicted_R	0.0000
predicted_RBI	0.0000
predicted_SLG	0.5000
predicted_SO	0.5000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.0000	3.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1700	1.5000	1.3845	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.5

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260503_NYM@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	665861
playerID	665861
playerName	Sebastián Rivero
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	LAA
teamID	13

Jorge Soler (624585) · BATTER · DH · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 32

All-history rows before 20260505: 32

System season_avg: 0.2310

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2308

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.156	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.156	0.000	-0.156	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.656	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.656	4.000	0.344	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.233	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.231	0.000	0.019	0.250
predicted_BB	0.469	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.469	0.000	-0.469	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.844	0.000	0.156	1.000
predicted_HR	0.180	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.219	0.000	0.781	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.308	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.326	0.000	-0.076	0.250
predicted_R	0.531	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.531	0.000	0.469	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.590	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.812	0.000	1.188	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.422	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.453	0.000	0.547	1.000
predicted_SO	1.375	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.375	3.000	-0.375	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.156	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.656	-
predicted_AVG	0.233	-
predicted_BB	0.469	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.308	-
predicted_R	0.531	-
predicted_RBI	0.590	-
predicted_SLG	0.422	-
predicted_SO	1.375	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.121	-0.035
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.731	0.075
predicted_AVG	0.233	0.000
predicted_BB	0.433	-0.036
predicted_H	0.841	0.071
predicted_HBP	0.019	-
predicted_HR	0.196	0.016
predicted_OBP	0.308	-0.000
predicted_R	0.463	-0.068
predicted_RBI	0.648	0.058
predicted_SLG	0.422	0.000
predicted_SO	1.285	-0.090

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.225 HR/AB=0.052

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, BvP AVG=0.286)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	0.2105	0.2857	0.3684	0.2105	0.0526	0.1579	0.1053	0.3158
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	10.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	4.000	4.000	12.000	0.2632	0.3256	0.4737	0.2632	0.0526	0.1842	0.1053	0.3158
season	0.20	32	-	117.000	27.000	5.000	7.000	26.000	17.000	15.000	44.000	0.2308	0.3261	0.4530	0.2308	0.0598	0.2222	0.1282	0.3761

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1020
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7710
predicted_AVG	0.2330
predicted_BB	0.4140
predicted_H	0.8790
predicted_HBP	0.0190
predicted_HR	0.2040
predicted_OBP	0.3077
predicted_R	0.4270
predicted_RBI	0.6790
predicted_SLG	0.4222
predicted_SO	1.2360

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1560	0.1020	0.1209	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6560	3.7710	3.7308	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2330	0.2330	0.2330	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4690	0.4140	0.4333	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.8790	0.8408	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0190	0.0190	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.2040	0.1956	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3080	0.3077	0.3078	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5310	0.4270	0.4634	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5900	0.6790	0.6479	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4220	0.4222	0.4221	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3750	1.2360	1.2847	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.231

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260504_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	624585
playerID	624585
playerName	Jorge Soler
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	LAA
teamID	13

Jo Adell (666176) · BATTER · RF · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 36

All-history rows before 20260505: 36

System season_avg: 0.2690

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2690

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.056	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.028	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.028	3.000	-0.028	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.290	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.269	0.333	-0.019	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.010	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.083	1.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.303	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.305	0.333	-0.055	-0.083
predicted_R	0.389	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.389	0.000	-0.389	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.556	0.000	-0.556	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.335	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.366	0.333	-0.116	-0.083
predicted_SO	0.917	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.917	1.000	-0.917	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.056	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.028	-
predicted_AVG	0.290	-
predicted_BB	0.111	-
predicted_H	1.010	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.303	-
predicted_R	0.389	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.335	-
predicted_SO	0.917	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.027	-0.029
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.978	-0.050
predicted_AVG	0.290	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.075	-0.036
predicted_H	1.098	0.088
predicted_HBP	0.022	-
predicted_HR	0.054	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.303	0.000
predicted_R	0.290	-0.099
predicted_RBI	0.357	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.335	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.044	0.127

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.03), rates preserved: AVG=0.273 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 4.028

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	6.000	0.3158	0.3158	0.3158	0.3158	0.0000	0.0526	0.0000	0.3158
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	11.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	11.000	0.2683	0.2857	0.3415	0.2683	0.0244	0.1220	0.0244	0.2683
season	0.20	36	-	145.000	39.000	2.000	4.000	20.000	14.000	4.000	33.000	0.2690	0.3052	0.3655	0.2690	0.0276	0.1379	0.0276	0.2276

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0110
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9510
predicted_AVG	0.2898
predicted_BB	0.0560
predicted_H	1.1450
predicted_HBP	0.0220
predicted_HR	0.0560
predicted_OBP	0.3031
predicted_R	0.2370
predicted_RBI	0.3710
predicted_SLG	0.3347
predicted_SO	1.1120

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0560	0.0110	0.0267	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0280	3.9510	3.9779	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2900	0.2898	0.2899	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1110	0.0560	0.0752	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0100	1.1450	1.0978	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0220	0.0220	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0560	0.0539	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3030	0.3031	0.3031	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3890	0.2370	0.2902	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.3710	0.3567	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3350	0.3347	0.3348	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9170	1.1120	1.0438	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.269

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260504_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	666176
playerID	666176
playerName	Jo Adell
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	LAA
teamID	13

Mike Trout (545361) · BATTER · CF · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 35

All-history rows before 20260505: 35

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.543	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.543	4.000	0.457	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.266	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.000	0.000	0.250
predicted_BB	0.971	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.971	0.000	-0.971	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.850	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.886	0.000	0.114	1.000
predicted_HR	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.387	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.422	0.000	-0.172	0.250
predicted_R	0.857	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.857	0.000	-0.857	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.461	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.532	0.000	-0.282	0.250
predicted_SO	1.114	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.114	2.000	-1.114	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.543	-
predicted_AVG	0.266	-
predicted_BB	0.971	-
predicted_H	0.850	-
predicted_HR	0.190	-
predicted_OBP	0.387	-
predicted_R	0.857	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.461	-
predicted_SO	1.114	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.092	-0.051
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.631	0.088
predicted_AVG	0.266	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.793	-0.177
predicted_H	0.932	0.083
predicted_HBP	0.054	-
predicted_HR	0.208	0.018
predicted_OBP	0.387	-0.000
predicted_R	0.645	-0.212
predicted_RBI	0.339	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.461	0.000
predicted_SO	1.592	0.478

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.63), rates preserved: AVG=0.257 HR/AB=0.057

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	12.000	0.2632	0.3333	0.4211	0.2632	0.0526	0.0526	0.1053	0.6316
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	10.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	9.000	16.000	0.2778	0.4348	0.4722	0.2778	0.0556	0.1111	0.2500	0.4444
season	0.20	35	-	124.000	31.000	5.000	10.000	21.000	30.000	34.000	39.000	0.2500	0.4224	0.5323	0.2500	0.0806	0.1694	0.2742	0.3145

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0650
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6790
predicted_AVG	0.2657
predicted_BB	0.6980
predicted_H	0.9770
predicted_HBP	0.0540
predicted_HR	0.2180
predicted_OBP	0.3866
predicted_R	0.5310
predicted_RBI	0.3550
predicted_SLG	0.4612
predicted_SO	1.8490

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.0650	0.0923	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5430	3.6790	3.6314	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2660	0.2657	0.2658	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.9710	0.6980	0.7935	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8500	0.9770	0.9325	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0540	0.0540	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1900	0.2180	0.2082	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3870	0.3866	0.3867	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8570	0.5310	0.6451	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.3550	0.3392	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4610	0.4612	0.4611	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1140	1.8490	1.5918	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	1
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260504_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	545361
playerID	545361
playerName	Mike Trout
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	LAA
teamID	13

Nolan Schanuel (694384) · BATTER · 1B · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 32

All-history rows before 20260505: 32

System season_avg: 0.2580

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2578

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	2.000	-0.250	-2.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	4.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.345	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.258	0.500	-0.258	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.312	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.312	0.000	-0.312	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_H	1.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.031	2.000	-1.031	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.094	0.000	-0.094	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.362	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.312	0.500	-0.312	-0.500
predicted_R	0.344	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.344	0.000	-0.344	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.594	0.000	-0.594	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.509	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.391	1.000	-0.391	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.688	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.688	2.000	0.312	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.345	-
predicted_BB	0.312	-
predicted_H	1.270	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.362	-
predicted_R	0.344	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.509	-
predicted_SO	0.688	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.409	0.159
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.345	0.000
predicted_BB	0.149	-0.163
predicted_H	1.342	0.072
predicted_HBP	0.041	-
predicted_HR	0.053	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.362	-0.000
predicted_R	0.396	0.052
predicted_RBI	0.286	0.016
predicted_SLG	0.509	0.000
predicted_SO	0.665	-0.023

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.336 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	8.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	0.4000	0.4000	0.5500	0.4000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.1500
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	13.000	5.000	1.000	5.000	5.000	0.000	7.000	0.3250	0.3415	0.5250	0.3250	0.0250	0.1250	0.0000	0.1750
season	0.20	32	-	128.000	33.000	8.000	3.000	19.000	11.000	10.000	22.000	0.2578	0.3121	0.3906	0.2578	0.0234	0.1484	0.0781	0.1719

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4950
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.0000
predicted_AVG	0.3453
predicted_BB	0.0620
predicted_H	1.3810
predicted_HBP	0.0410
predicted_HR	0.0540
predicted_OBP	0.3619
predicted_R	0.4240
predicted_RBI	0.2940
predicted_SLG	0.5094
predicted_SO	0.6530

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.4950	0.4093	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	4.0000	4.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3450	0.3453	0.3452	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3120	0.0620	0.1495	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2700	1.3810	1.3421	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0410	0.0410	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0540	0.0526	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3620	0.3619	0.3619	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3440	0.4240	0.3960	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.2940	0.2856	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5090	0.5094	0.5093	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6880	0.6530	0.6653	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.258

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	2
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260504_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	694384
playerID	694384
playerName	Nolan Schanuel
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	LAA
teamID	13

Yoán Moncada (660162) · BATTER · 3B · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 25

All-history rows before 20260505: 25

System season_avg: 0.1530

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1529

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_AB	3.400	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.400	3.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.119	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.153	0.000	-0.153	0.000
predicted_BB	0.560	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.560	0.000	0.440	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.520	0.000	-0.520	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.120	0.000	-0.120	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.170	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.287	0.000	-0.037	0.250
predicted_R	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.320	0.000	-0.320	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.320	0.000	-0.320	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.174	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.282	0.000	-0.282	0.000
predicted_SO	1.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.440	1.000	-1.440	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.040	-
predicted_AB	3.400	-
predicted_AVG	0.119	-
predicted_BB	0.560	-
predicted_H	0.330	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.170	-
predicted_R	0.320	-
predicted_RBI	0.080	-
predicted_SLG	0.174	-
predicted_SO	1.440	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.021
predicted_AB	3.504	0.104
predicted_AVG	0.119	0.000
predicted_BB	0.340	-0.220
predicted_H	0.392	0.062
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.057	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.170	0.000
predicted_R	0.178	-0.142
predicted_RBI	0.094	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.174	0.000
predicted_SO	1.455	0.015

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.112 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	8.000	0.1111	0.1111	0.1111	0.1111	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.4444
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	13.000	0.1111	0.1795	0.1944	0.1111	0.0278	0.0278	0.0833	0.3611
season	0.20	25	-	85.000	13.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	8.000	14.000	36.000	0.1529	0.2871	0.2824	0.1529	0.0353	0.0941	0.1647	0.4235

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0080
predicted_AB	3.5600
predicted_AVG	0.1195
predicted_BB	0.2210
predicted_H	0.4250
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.0600
predicted_OBP	0.1702
predicted_R	0.1020
predicted_RBI	0.1020
predicted_SLG	0.1745
predicted_SO	1.4630

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0400	0.0080	0.0192	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4000	3.5600	3.5040	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1190	0.1195	0.1193	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5600	0.2210	0.3397	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3300	0.4250	0.3917	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0600	0.0565	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1700	0.1702	0.1701	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3200	0.1020	0.1783	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0800	0.1020	0.0943	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1740	0.1745	0.1743	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4400	1.4630	1.4550	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.153

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260504_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	660162
playerID	660162
playerName	Yoán Moncada
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	LAA
teamID	13

Vaughn Grissom (687093) · BATTER · 2B · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 12

All-history rows before 20260505: 12

System season_avg: 0.3330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3333

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.364	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.818	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	3.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_BB	0.455	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.167	0.000	-1.167	0.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.386	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.400	0.250	-0.150	0.000
predicted_R	0.545	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.490	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.583	0.000	-0.583	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.558	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SO	0.091	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.083	0.000	1.917	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.364	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.818	-
predicted_AVG	0.350	-
predicted_BB	0.455	-
predicted_H	1.000	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.386	-
predicted_R	0.545	-
predicted_RBI	0.490	-
predicted_SLG	0.558	-
predicted_SO	0.091	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.383	0.019
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.890	0.072
predicted_AVG	0.350	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.369	-0.086
predicted_H	1.243	0.243
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.127	0.027
predicted_OBP	0.386	0.000
predicted_R	0.516	-0.029
predicted_RBI	0.612	0.122
predicted_SLG	0.558	0.000
predicted_SO	0.067	-0.024

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.89), rates preserved: AVG=0.320 HR/AB=0.033

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 3.818

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	0.3500	0.3636	0.6000	0.3500	0.0500	0.2000	0.0500	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	14.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	6.000	4.000	1.000	0.3590	0.4091	0.5385	0.3590	0.0256	0.1538	0.1026	0.0256
season	0.20	11	-	42.000	14.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	6.000	5.000	1.000	0.3333	0.3958	0.5000	0.3333	0.0238	0.1429	0.1191	0.0238

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3930
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9290
predicted_AVG	0.3498
predicted_BB	0.3230
predicted_H	1.3740
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1420
predicted_OBP	0.3860
predicted_R	0.5010
predicted_RBI	0.6770
predicted_SLG	0.5585
predicted_SO	0.0540

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3640	0.3930	0.3829	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8180	3.9290	3.8902	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3500	0.3498	0.3499	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4550	0.3230	0.3692	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0000	1.3740	1.2431	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1420	0.1273	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3860	0.3860	0.3860	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5450	0.5010	0.5164	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4900	0.6770	0.6116	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5580	0.5585	0.5583	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0910	0.0540	0.0669	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.333

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260503_NYM@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	687093
playerID	687093
playerName	Vaughn Grissom
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	LAA
teamID	13

Josh Lowe (666139) · BATTER · LF · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 26

All-history rows before 20260505: 26

System season_avg: 0.1590

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1591

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.038	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.038	0.000	0.962	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.385	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.385	3.000	-0.385	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.083	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.159	0.000	0.174	0.333
predicted_BB	0.192	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.192	0.000	0.808	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.210	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.538	0.000	0.462	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.094	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.211	0.000	0.289	0.500
predicted_R	0.269	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.269	0.000	-0.269	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.385	0.000	-0.385	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.144	0.667	0.667	Hitting_SLG	0.307	0.000	0.360	0.667
predicted_SO	1.038	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.038	1.000	-0.038	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.038	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.385	-
predicted_AVG	0.083	-
predicted_BB	0.192	-
predicted_H	0.210	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.094	-
predicted_R	0.269	-
predicted_RBI	0.080	-
predicted_SLG	0.144	-
predicted_SO	1.038	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.018	-0.019
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.451	0.066
predicted_AVG	0.083	0.000
predicted_BB	0.093	-0.099
predicted_H	0.262	0.052
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.062	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.094	-0.000
predicted_R	0.177	-0.092
predicted_RBI	0.103	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.144	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.029	-0.009

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.45), rates preserved: AVG=0.076 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	6.000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	8.000	0.1471	0.1471	0.2353	0.1471	0.0294	0.0294	0.0000	0.2353
season	0.20	26	-	88.000	14.000	1.000	4.000	10.000	7.000	5.000	27.000	0.1591	0.2105	0.3068	0.1591	0.0454	0.1136	0.0568	0.3068

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0080
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4870
predicted_AVG	0.0833
predicted_BB	0.0400
predicted_H	0.2900
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0680
predicted_OBP	0.0936
predicted_R	0.1270
predicted_RBI	0.1150
predicted_SLG	0.1437
predicted_SO	1.0240

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0380	0.0080	0.0185	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3850	3.4870	3.4513	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.0830	0.0833	0.0832	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1920	0.0400	0.0932	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.2100	0.2900	0.2620	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0680	0.0617	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.0940	0.0936	0.0937	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2690	0.1270	0.1767	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0800	0.1150	0.1028	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1440	0.1437	0.1438	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0380	1.0240	1.0289	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.159

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260504_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	666139
playerID	666139
playerName	Josh Lowe
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	LAA
teamID	13

Sam Aldegheri (691951) · PITCHER · Starter · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 1

All-history rows before 20260505: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000
predicted_IP	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.200	1.200	2.800	2.800
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_SO	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	1	1.667	1.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	5.4000	1.8000	0.6000	1.2000	0.6000	1.2000	0.6000
last_10	0.35	1	1.667	1.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	5.4000	1.8000	0.6000	1.2000	0.6000	1.2000	0.6000
season	0.20	1	1.667	1.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	5.4000	1.8000	0.6000	1.2000	0.6000	1.2000	0.6000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.0000
predicted_ER	1.0000
predicted_ERA	5.4000
predicted_H	2.0000
predicted_HR	1.0000
predicted_IP	1.6670
predicted_SO	2.0000
predicted_WHIP	1.8000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	4.0000	1.0000	2.0500	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.4000	5.4000	form_only
predicted_H	6.0000	2.0000	3.4000	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	2.0000	1.0000	1.3500	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.0000	1.6670	2.4836	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	2.0000	2.3500	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.8000	1.8000	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.0
H	6
R	4
ER	4
BB	1
SO	3
HR	2
BF	22
Pitches	83

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	8
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	5.40
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	33
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	18
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260416_LAA@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	691951
playerID	691951
playerName	Sam Aldegheri
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

Sam Bachman (696147) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 12

All-history rows before 20260505: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_IP	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.242	1.200	0.758	0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.500	3.000	-1.500	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 2.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.667	2.000	4.000	2.000	7.000	1.000	2.7000	0.9000	0.3000	0.6000	0.3000	1.0500	0.1500
last_10	0.35	10	14.000	6.000	10.000	6.000	13.000	1.000	3.8571	1.1429	0.4286	0.7143	0.4286	0.9286	0.0714
season	0.20	12	17.000	6.000	10.000	10.000	18.000	1.000	3.1765	1.1765	0.3529	0.5882	0.5882	1.0588	0.0588

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5530
predicted_ER	0.4880
predicted_ERA	3.2003
predicted_H	0.8760
predicted_HR	0.1430
predicted_IP	1.3730
predicted_SO	1.3860
predicted_WHIP	1.0403

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5530	0.3595	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4880	0.3172	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2003	3.2003	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8760	0.5694	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1430	0.0929	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	2.0000	1.3730	1.5924	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.3860	0.9009	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0403	1.0403	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.18
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260502_NYM@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	696147
playerID	696147
playerName	Sam Bachman
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

Brent Suter (608718) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 13

All-history rows before 20260505: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.692	0.000	-0.692	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.500	1.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.538	1.000	-1.538	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.667	5.000	6.000	1.000	5.000	1.000	9.6429	1.5000	1.0714	1.2857	0.2143	1.0714	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	15.667	7.000	13.000	6.000	14.000	3.000	4.0213	1.2128	0.4468	0.8298	0.3830	0.8936	0.1915
season	0.20	13	20.667	9.000	19.000	8.000	20.000	3.000	3.9194	1.3065	0.4355	0.9194	0.3871	0.9677	0.1452

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3960
predicted_ER	0.9330
predicted_ERA	6.5306
predicted_H	1.3540
predicted_HR	0.2480
predicted_IP	1.2860
predicted_SO	1.2710
predicted_WHIP	1.3608

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3960	0.2574	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.9330	0.6065	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	6.5306	6.5306	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.3540	1.2301	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2480	0.1612	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.2860	1.1859	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.2710	0.8261	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3608	1.3608	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.92
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_CHW@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	608718
playerID	608718
playerName	Brent Suter
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

Chase Silseth (681217) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 16

All-history rows before 20260505: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.519	0.100	0.481	0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.625	0.000	-0.625	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.667	2.000	6.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	4.9091	2.7273	0.5454	1.6364	1.0909	0.2727	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	7.000	4.000	9.000	9.000	5.000	1.000	5.1429	2.5714	0.5714	1.2857	1.2857	0.7143	0.1429
season	0.20	16	11.333	4.000	11.000	10.000	10.000	1.000	3.1765	1.8529	0.3529	0.9706	0.8823	0.8823	0.0882

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.8010
predicted_ER	0.3700
predicted_ERA	4.6444
predicted_H	0.9890
predicted_HR	0.0480
predicted_IP	0.7170
predicted_SO	0.3940
predicted_WHIP	2.4979

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.8010	0.5207	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.3700	0.5905	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.6444	4.6444	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.9890	1.3428	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0480	0.0312	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.7170	0.8160	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.3940	0.2561	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	2.4979	2.4979	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	2
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.18
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	2
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	6
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	4
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260501_NYM@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	681217
playerID	681217
playerName	Chase Silseth
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

José Fermin (820862) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAA

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 3

All-history rows before 20260505: 3

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.067	1.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.333	1.000	-0.333	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 3

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	3	3.667	1.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	2.4545	0.2727	0.2727	0.2727	1.0909	0.2727
last_10	0.35	3	3.667	1.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	2.4545	0.2727	0.2727	0.2727	1.0909	0.2727
season	0.20	3	3.667	1.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	2.4545	0.2727	0.2727	0.2727	1.0909	0.2727

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_ER	0.3330
predicted_ERA	2.4545
predicted_H	0.3330
predicted_HR	0.3330
predicted_IP	1.2220
predicted_SO	1.3330
predicted_WHIP	0.2727

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3330	0.2165	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.4545	2.4545	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.3330	0.5665	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.3330	0.2165	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.2220	1.1443	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.3330	1.2165	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.2727	0.2727	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	3
Season rows before report date	3
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	3
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.45
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260501_NYM@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	820862
playerID	820862
playerName	José Fermin
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAA
teamID	13

20260505_CIN@CHC

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 1, "home_runs": 7, "confidence": 0.7899380952380953, "home_win_probability": 0.7899380952380953, "away_win_probability": 0.21006190476190467, "predicted_score_text": "CIN 1 - 7 CHC", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 7, "predicted_score_text": "CIN 3 - 7 CHC", "confidence": 0.7899380952380953, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 7, "score_text": "CIN 3 - 7 CHC", "winner": "CHC"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 1, "home_runs": 7, "score_text": "CIN 1 - 7 CHC", "winner": "CHC"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -2, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": -2, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Away Team: CIN

Elly De La Cruz (682829) · BATTER · SS · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 35

All-history rows before 20260505: 35

System season_avg: 0.2850

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2847

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.171	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.914	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.914	4.000	0.086	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.309	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.285	0.750	-0.285	-0.750
predicted_BB	0.486	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.486	1.000	-0.486	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.086	0.000	-0.086	0.000
predicted_H	1.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.114	3.000	-1.114	-3.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.411	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.364	0.800	-0.364	-0.800
predicted_R	0.771	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.771	0.000	-0.771	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.470	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.714	0.000	-0.714	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.229	0.000	-0.229	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.458	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.547	0.750	-0.547	-0.750
predicted_SO	1.257	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.257	1.000	-0.257	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.914	-
predicted_AVG	0.309	-
predicted_BB	0.486	-
predicted_H	1.100	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.411	-
predicted_R	0.771	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.458	-
predicted_SO	1.257	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.164	-0.007
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.670	-0.244
predicted_AVG	0.309	0.000
predicted_BB	0.571	0.085
predicted_H	1.096	-0.004
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.121	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.411	0.000
predicted_R	0.559	-0.212
predicted_RBI	0.470	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.458	0.000
predicted_SO	1.206	-0.051

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.91), rates preserved: AVG=0.280 HR/AB=0.031

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=14.0, BvP AVG=0.357)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.914

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	0.2941	0.4000	0.3529	0.2941	0.0000	0.0588	0.1765	0.3529
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	12.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	6.000	7.000	11.000	0.3429	0.4524	0.5429	0.3429	0.0571	0.2000	0.2000	0.3143
season	0.20	35	-	137.000	39.000	6.000	10.000	25.000	27.000	17.000	44.000	0.2847	0.3636	0.5474	0.2847	0.0730	0.1825	0.1241	0.3212

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1600
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5380
predicted_AVG	0.3093
predicted_BB	0.6160
predicted_H	1.0940
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1220
predicted_OBP	0.4111
predicted_R	0.4450
predicted_RBI	0.4700
predicted_SLG	0.4583
predicted_SO	1.1780

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1710	0.1600	0.1638	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9140	3.5380	3.6696	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3090	0.3093	0.3092	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4860	0.6160	0.5705	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1000	1.0940	1.0961	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1220	0.1213	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4110	0.4111	0.4111	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7710	0.4450	0.5591	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.4700	0.4700	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4580	0.4583	0.4582	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2570	1.1780	1.2056	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.285

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	1
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.75
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260504_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	682829
playerID	682829
playerName	Elly De La Cruz
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	CIN
teamID	7

Nathaniel Lowe (663993) · BATTER · DH · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 18

All-history rows before 20260505: 18

System season_avg: 0.2670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2667

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.278	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.278	0.000	-0.278	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.333	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.333	3.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.266	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.267	0.000	-0.017	0.250
predicted_BB	0.444	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.444	1.000	-0.444	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.889	0.000	0.111	1.000
predicted_HR	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.278	0.000	-0.278	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.346	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.353	0.250	-0.103	0.000
predicted_R	0.444	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.750	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.778	0.000	-0.778	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.643	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.600	0.000	-0.350	0.250
predicted_SO	0.778	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.778	1.000	1.222	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.278	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.333	-
predicted_AVG	0.266	-
predicted_BB	0.444	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.270	-
predicted_OBP	0.346	-
predicted_R	0.444	-
predicted_RBI	0.750	-
predicted_SLG	0.643	-
predicted_SO	0.778	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.299	0.021
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.332	-0.001
predicted_AVG	0.266	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.422	-0.022
predicted_H	0.845	0.075
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.300	0.030
predicted_OBP	0.346	0.000
predicted_R	0.486	0.042
predicted_RBI	0.824	0.074
predicted_SLG	0.643	0.000
predicted_SO	0.973	0.195

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.33), rates preserved: AVG=0.254 HR/AB=0.090

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	0.2500	0.3333	0.5625	0.2500	0.0625	0.2500	0.1250	0.4375
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	10.000	2.000	5.000	10.000	7.000	4.000	8.000	0.2857	0.3590	0.7714	0.2857	0.1429	0.2857	0.1143	0.2286
season	0.20	18	-	60.000	16.000	5.000	5.000	14.000	8.000	8.000	14.000	0.2667	0.3529	0.6000	0.2667	0.0833	0.2333	0.1333	0.2333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3100
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.3320
predicted_AVG	0.2658
predicted_BB	0.4100
predicted_H	0.8860
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.3160
predicted_OBP	0.3462
predicted_R	0.5090
predicted_RBI	0.8630
predicted_SLG	0.6431
predicted_SO	1.0780

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2780	0.3100	0.2988	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3330	3.3320	3.3323	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2660	0.2658	0.2659	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4440	0.4100	0.4219	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.8860	0.8454	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2700	0.3160	0.2999	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3460	0.3462	0.3461	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4440	0.5090	0.4863	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7500	0.8630	0.8235	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6430	0.6431	0.6431	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7780	1.0780	0.9730	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.267

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260504_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	663993
playerID	663993
playerName	Nathaniel Lowe
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	CIN
teamID	7

Tyler Stephenson (663886) · BATTER · C · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 25

All-history rows before 20260505: 25

System season_avg: 0.1830

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1829

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.120	0.000	-0.120	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.280	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.280	4.000	0.720	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.223	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.183	0.250	0.067	0.000
predicted_BB	0.480	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.480	0.000	-0.480	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.590	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.600	1.000	0.400	0.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.080	0.000	-0.080	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.272	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.284	0.250	-0.034	0.000
predicted_R	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.160	0.000	-0.160	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.240	0.000	-0.240	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.322	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.293	0.250	-0.043	0.000
predicted_SO	1.120	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.120	2.000	-0.120	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.120	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.280	-
predicted_AVG	0.223	-
predicted_BB	0.480	-
predicted_H	0.590	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.272	-
predicted_R	0.160	-
predicted_RBI	0.060	-
predicted_SLG	0.322	-
predicted_SO	1.120	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.240	0.120
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.505	0.225
predicted_AVG	0.223	0.000
predicted_BB	0.329	-0.151
predicted_H	0.732	0.142
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.015	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.272	-0.000
predicted_R	0.158	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.078	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.322	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.051	-0.069

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.209 HR/AB=0.004

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, BvP AVG=0.417)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	0.2632	0.2632	0.3684	0.2632	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	7.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	12.000	0.1944	0.2750	0.2778	0.1944	0.0000	0.0278	0.1111	0.3333
season	0.20	25	-	82.000	15.000	3.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	12.000	28.000	0.1829	0.2842	0.2927	0.1829	0.0244	0.0732	0.1463	0.3415

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3040
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6260
predicted_AVG	0.2231
predicted_BB	0.2470
predicted_H	0.8090
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0180
predicted_OBP	0.2715
predicted_R	0.1570
predicted_RBI	0.0880
predicted_SLG	0.3216
predicted_SO	1.0140

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1200	0.3040	0.2396	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2800	3.6260	3.5049	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2230	0.2231	0.2231	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4800	0.2470	0.3286	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5900	0.8090	0.7324	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0180	0.0152	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2720	0.2715	0.2717	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1600	0.1570	0.1580	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0600	0.0880	0.0782	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3220	0.3216	0.3217	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1200	1.0140	1.0511	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.183

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260504_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	663886
playerID	663886
playerName	Tyler Stephenson
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	CIN
teamID	7

JJ Bleday (668709) · BATTER · LF · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 7

All-history rows before 20260505: 7

System season_avg: 0.3000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	0.857	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.857	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.857	5.000	0.143	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.285	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.300	0.200	0.033	0.133
predicted_BB	0.714	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.714	0.000	0.286	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.740	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.857	1.000	0.143	0.000
predicted_HR	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.429	1.000	-0.429	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.431	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.440	0.200	0.060	0.300
predicted_R	0.714	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.714	1.000	0.286	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.520	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.571	1.000	0.429	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.770	0.667	0.667	Hitting_SLG	0.800	0.800	-0.133	-0.133
predicted_SO	0.571	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.571	2.000	-0.571	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.857	-
predicted_AVG	0.285	-
predicted_BB	0.714	-
predicted_H	0.740	-
predicted_HR	0.370	-
predicted_OBP	0.431	-
predicted_R	0.714	-
predicted_RBI	0.520	-
predicted_SLG	0.770	-
predicted_SO	0.571	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.159	0.016
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.899	0.042
predicted_AVG	0.285	0.000
predicted_BB	0.739	0.025
predicted_H	0.800	0.060
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.400	0.030
predicted_OBP	0.431	0.000
predicted_R	0.739	0.025
predicted_RBI	0.562	0.042
predicted_SLG	0.770	0.000
predicted_SO	0.580	0.009

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.90), rates preserved: AVG=0.276 HR/AB=0.138

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	0.2667	0.4211	0.7333	0.2667	0.1333	0.2000	0.2667	0.2000
last_10	0.35	7	-	20.000	6.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	5.000	5.000	4.000	0.3000	0.4400	0.8000	0.3000	0.1500	0.2000	0.2500	0.2000
season	0.20	7	-	20.000	6.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	5.000	5.000	4.000	0.3000	0.4400	0.8000	0.3000	0.1500	0.2000	0.2500	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1680
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.9210
predicted_AVG	0.2850
predicted_BB	0.7520
predicted_H	0.8330
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.4160
predicted_OBP	0.4315
predicted_R	0.7520
predicted_RBI	0.5840
predicted_SLG	0.7700
predicted_SO	0.5840

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.1680	0.1593	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8570	2.9210	2.8986	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2850	0.2850	0.2850	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7140	0.7520	0.7387	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7400	0.8330	0.8004	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3700	0.4160	0.3999	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4310	0.4315	0.4313	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7140	0.7520	0.7387	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5200	0.5840	0.5616	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.7700	0.7700	0.7700	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5710	0.5840	0.5795	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.3

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260504_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	668709
playerID	668709
playerName	JJ Bleday
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	CIN
teamID	7

Spencer Steer (668715) · BATTER · RF · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 32

All-history rows before 20260505: 32

System season_avg: 0.2480

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2477

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.188	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.406	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.406	4.000	-0.406	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.363	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.248	0.500	-0.248	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.312	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.312	0.000	0.688	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.844	2.000	-0.844	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.156	0.000	-0.156	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.437	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.325	0.500	-0.075	-0.250
predicted_R	0.375	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.344	1.000	-0.344	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.472	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.440	0.500	-0.440	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.969	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.969	0.000	0.031	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.188	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.406	-
predicted_AVG	0.363	-
predicted_BB	0.312	-
predicted_H	1.020	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.437	-
predicted_R	0.375	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.472	-
predicted_SO	0.969	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.172	-0.016
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.321	-0.085
predicted_AVG	0.363	0.000
predicted_BB	0.358	0.046
predicted_H	1.131	0.111
predicted_HBP	0.053	-
predicted_HR	0.063	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.437	0.000
predicted_R	0.306	-0.069
predicted_RBI	0.489	0.049
predicted_SLG	0.472	0.000
predicted_SO	0.775	-0.194

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.332 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=18.0, BvP AVG=0.222)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	0.4375	0.5000	0.5000	0.4375	0.0000	0.1875	0.1250	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	11.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	4.000	6.000	0.3333	0.4211	0.4545	0.3333	0.0303	0.1515	0.1212	0.1818
season	0.20	32	-	109.000	27.000	6.000	5.000	11.000	12.000	10.000	31.000	0.2477	0.3252	0.4404	0.2477	0.0459	0.1009	0.0917	0.2844

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1630
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.2760
predicted_AVG	0.3631
predicted_BB	0.3830
predicted_H	1.1900
predicted_HBP	0.0530
predicted_HR	0.0650
predicted_OBP	0.4374
predicted_R	0.2690
predicted_RBI	0.5160
predicted_SLG	0.4722
predicted_SO	0.6710

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1880	0.1630	0.1718	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4060	3.2760	3.3215	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3630	0.3631	0.3631	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3120	0.3830	0.3581	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0200	1.1900	1.1305	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0530	0.0530	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0650	0.0633	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4370	0.4374	0.4373	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3750	0.2690	0.3061	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.5160	0.4894	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4720	0.4722	0.4721	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9690	0.6710	0.7753	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.248

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B-RF
gameID	20260504_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	668715
playerID	668715
playerName	Spencer Steer
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	CIN
teamID	7

TJ Friedl (670770) · BATTER · CF · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 30

All-history rows before 20260505: 30

System season_avg: 0.2030

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2034

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.933	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.933	3.000	-0.933	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.271	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.203	0.000	-0.203	0.000
predicted_BB	0.333	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.980	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.800	0.000	-0.800	0.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.310	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.282	0.000	-0.032	0.250
predicted_R	0.433	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.433	0.000	-0.433	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.233	0.000	-0.233	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.512	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.305	0.000	-0.305	0.000
predicted_SO	0.933	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.933	1.000	-0.933	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.933	-
predicted_AVG	0.271	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.980	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.310	-
predicted_R	0.433	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.512	-
predicted_SO	0.933	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.327	0.127
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.851	-0.082
predicted_AVG	0.271	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.159	-0.174
predicted_H	1.012	0.032
predicted_HBP	0.148	-
predicted_HR	0.173	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.310	-0.000
predicted_R	0.521	0.088
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.512	0.000
predicted_SO	0.781	-0.152

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.93), rates preserved: AVG=0.257 HR/AB=0.044

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=19.0, BvP AVG=0.211)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.933

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	0.2778	0.3158	0.5556	0.2778	0.0556	0.1111	0.0000	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	12.000	5.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	0.000	7.000	0.3000	0.3171	0.5750	0.3000	0.0500	0.0750	0.0000	0.1750
season	0.20	30	-	118.000	24.000	6.000	2.000	7.000	13.000	10.000	28.000	0.2034	0.2824	0.3051	0.2034	0.0169	0.0593	0.0848	0.2373

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3960
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8070
predicted_AVG	0.2707
predicted_BB	0.0650
predicted_H	1.0300
predicted_HBP	0.1480
predicted_HR	0.1750
predicted_OBP	0.3096
predicted_R	0.5690
predicted_RBI	0.3350
predicted_SLG	0.5123
predicted_SO	0.6990

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.3960	0.3274	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9330	3.8070	3.8511	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2710	0.2707	0.2708	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.0650	0.1588	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9800	1.0300	1.0125	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1480	0.1480	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1750	0.1732	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3100	0.3096	0.3097	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4330	0.5690	0.5214	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.3350	0.3297	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5120	0.5123	0.5122	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9330	0.6990	0.7809	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.203

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260504_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	670770
playerID	670770
playerName	TJ Friedl
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	CIN
teamID	7

Sal Stewart (701398) · BATTER · 1B · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 35

All-history rows before 20260505: 35

System season_avg: 0.2520

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2519

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.171	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.743	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.743	4.000	0.257	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.252	0.250	-0.252	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.514	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.514	0.000	-0.514	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.430	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.943	1.000	-0.943	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.257	0.000	-0.257	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.184	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.338	0.250	-0.338	-0.250
predicted_R	0.571	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.571	0.000	-0.571	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.829	0.000	-0.829	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.211	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.504	0.250	-0.504	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.771	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.771	1.000	1.229	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.743	-
predicted_AVG	0.125	-
predicted_BB	0.514	-
predicted_H	0.430	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.184	-
predicted_R	0.571	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.211	-
predicted_SO	0.771	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.106	-0.065
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.877	0.134
predicted_AVG	0.125	0.000
predicted_BB	0.376	-0.139
predicted_H	0.472	0.042
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.086	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.184	-0.000
predicted_R	0.403	-0.168
predicted_RBI	0.331	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.211	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.729	-0.042

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.122 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.0500	0.0952	0.0500	0.0500	0.0000	0.0000	0.0500	0.1500
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	3.000	8.000	0.1500	0.2093	0.2500	0.1500	0.0250	0.1250	0.0750	0.2000
season	0.20	35	-	131.000	33.000	6.000	9.000	29.000	20.000	18.000	27.000	0.2519	0.3377	0.5038	0.2519	0.0687	0.2214	0.1374	0.2061

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0710
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9490
predicted_AVG	0.1254
predicted_BB	0.3010
predicted_H	0.4950
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0890
predicted_OBP	0.1836
predicted_R	0.3130
predicted_RBI	0.3480
predicted_SLG	0.2108
predicted_SO	0.7060

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1710	0.0710	0.1060	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7430	3.9490	3.8769	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1250	0.1254	0.1253	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5140	0.3010	0.3755	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4300	0.4950	0.4722	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0890	0.0858	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1840	0.1836	0.1837	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5710	0.3130	0.4033	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3480	0.3312	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2110	0.2108	0.2109	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7710	0.7060	0.7288	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.252

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B-1B
gameID	20260504_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	701398
playerID	701398
playerName	Sal Stewart
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	CIN
teamID	7

Matt McLain (680574) · BATTER · 2B · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 31

All-history rows before 20260505: 31

System season_avg: 0.1980

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1983

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.194	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.903	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.903	3.000	-0.903	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.153	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.198	0.000	0.135	0.333
predicted_BB	0.548	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.548	0.000	-0.548	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_H	0.460	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.774	0.000	0.226	1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.194	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.307	0.000	0.026	0.333
predicted_R	0.419	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.419	0.000	-0.419	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.290	0.000	-0.290	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.129	0.000	-0.129	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.241	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.298	0.000	0.036	0.333
predicted_SO	1.161	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.161	0.000	-1.161	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.194	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.903	-
predicted_AVG	0.153	-
predicted_BB	0.548	-
predicted_H	0.460	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.194	-
predicted_R	0.419	-
predicted_RBI	0.200	-
predicted_SLG	0.241	-
predicted_SO	1.161	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.138	-0.056
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.977	0.074
predicted_AVG	0.153	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.332	-0.216
predicted_H	0.560	0.100
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.074	0.014
predicted_OBP	0.194	-0.000
predicted_R	0.292	-0.127
predicted_RBI	0.242	0.042
predicted_SLG	0.241	0.000
predicted_SO	1.240	0.079

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.98), rates preserved: AVG=0.141 HR/AB=0.019

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, BvP AVG=0.300)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.903

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	7.000	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	0.1000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.3500
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	8.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	3.000	12.000	0.1951	0.2500	0.3902	0.1951	0.0488	0.1463	0.0732	0.2927
season	0.20	31	-	121.000	24.000	6.000	2.000	9.000	13.000	17.000	36.000	0.1983	0.3071	0.2975	0.1983	0.0165	0.0744	0.1405	0.2975

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1080
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.0160
predicted_AVG	0.1529
predicted_BB	0.2160
predicted_H	0.6140
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.0820
predicted_OBP	0.1939
predicted_R	0.2230
predicted_RBI	0.2650
predicted_SLG	0.2411
predicted_SO	1.2830

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1940	0.1080	0.1381	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9030	4.0160	3.9765	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1530	0.1529	0.1529	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5480	0.2160	0.3322	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4600	0.6140	0.5601	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0820	0.0743	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1940	0.1939	0.1939	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4190	0.2230	0.2916	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2000	0.2650	0.2423	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2410	0.2411	0.2411	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1610	1.2830	1.2403	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.198

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260503_CIN@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	680574
playerID	680574
playerName	Matt McLain
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	CIN
teamID	7

Ke'Bryan Hayes (663647) · BATTER · 3B · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 27

All-history rows before 20260505: 27

System season_avg: 0.1260

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1264

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.037	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_3B	0.037	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_AB	3.222	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.222	3.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.185	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.126	0.333	-0.126	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.259	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.259	1.000	-0.259	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.450	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.407	1.000	-0.407	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.074	1.000	-0.074	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.191	0.500	-0.191	-0.500
predicted_R	0.259	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.259	1.000	-0.259	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.111	2.000	-0.111	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.375	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.230	1.333	-0.230	-1.333
predicted_SO	0.556	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.556	1.000	0.444	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.037	-
predicted_3B	0.037	-
predicted_AB	3.222	-
predicted_AVG	0.185	-
predicted_BB	0.259	-
predicted_H	0.450	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.240	-
predicted_R	0.259	-
predicted_RBI	0.220	-
predicted_SLG	0.375	-
predicted_SO	0.556	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.040	0.003
predicted_3B	0.040	0.003
predicted_AB	3.337	0.115
predicted_AVG	0.185	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.251	-0.008
predicted_H	0.566	0.116
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.155	0.035
predicted_OBP	0.240	-0.000
predicted_R	0.318	0.058
predicted_RBI	0.275	0.055
predicted_SLG	0.375	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.784	0.228

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.34), rates preserved: AVG=0.170 HR/AB=0.046

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, BvP AVG=0.125)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.1765	0.2222	0.3529	0.1765	0.0588	0.1177	0.0588	0.2941
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	3.000	10.000	0.2286	0.2895	0.4857	0.2286	0.0571	0.0857	0.0857	0.2857
season	0.20	27	-	87.000	11.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	7.000	7.000	15.000	0.1264	0.1915	0.2299	0.1264	0.0230	0.0345	0.0805	0.1724

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0420
predicted_3B	0.0420
predicted_AB	3.3990
predicted_AVG	0.1847
predicted_BB	0.2470
predicted_H	0.6280
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1740
predicted_OBP	0.2396
predicted_R	0.3490
predicted_RBI	0.3050
predicted_SLG	0.3748
predicted_SO	0.9070

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0370	0.0420	0.0403	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0370	0.0420	0.0403	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2220	3.3990	3.3371	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1850	0.1847	0.1848	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2590	0.2470	0.2512	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4500	0.6280	0.5657	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1740	0.1551	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2400	0.2396	0.2397	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2590	0.3490	0.3175	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2200	0.3050	0.2752	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3750	0.3748	0.3749	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5560	0.9070	0.7842	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.126

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260504_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	663647
playerID	663647
playerName	Ke'Bryan Hayes
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	CIN
teamID	7

Andrew Abbott (671096) · PITCHER · Starter · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 7

All-history rows before 20260505: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_ER	3.286	2.000	-0.286	1.000
predicted_IP	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.786	6.000	-0.786	-2.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	3.429	5.000	-1.429	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	23.000	19.000	31.000	11.000	15.000	4.000	7.4348	1.8261	0.8261	1.3478	0.4783	0.6522	0.1739
last_10	0.35	7	34.667	23.000	43.000	15.000	24.000	5.000	5.9712	1.6731	0.6635	1.2404	0.4327	0.6923	0.1442
season	0.20	7	34.667	23.000	43.000	15.000	24.000	5.000	5.9712	1.6731	0.6635	1.2404	0.4327	0.6923	0.1442

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.1730
predicted_ER	3.5310
predicted_ERA	6.6298
predicted_H	6.1780
predicted_HR	0.7550
predicted_IP	4.7940
predicted_SO	3.2320
predicted_WHIP	1.7420

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	2.1730	1.4124	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	3.5310	3.3451	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	6.6298	6.6298	form_only
predicted_H	6.0000	6.1780	6.1157	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.7550	0.8407	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.0000	4.7940	4.5161	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	3.2320	2.8008	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.7420	1.7420	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.0
H	6
R	3
ER	3
BB	0
SO	2
HR	1
BF	18
Pitches	62

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	25
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	5.97
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	7
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	86
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	57
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260430_COL@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	671096
playerID	671096
playerName	Andrew Abbott
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Connor Phillips (683175) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 17

All-history rows before 20260505: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.353	2.000	-0.353	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.888	0.000	0.112	1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.118	0.000	-0.118	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.667	1.000	3.000	4.000	6.000	0.000	1.5882	1.2353	0.1765	0.5294	0.7059	1.0588	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.667	1.000	5.000	7.000	13.000	0.000	0.8438	1.1250	0.0938	0.4688	0.6562	1.2188	0.0000
season	0.20	16	17.667	4.000	9.000	15.000	19.000	1.000	2.0377	1.3585	0.2264	0.5094	0.8491	1.0755	0.0566

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7920
predicted_ER	0.1740
predicted_ERA	1.4176
predicted_H	0.5570
predicted_HR	0.0120
predicted_IP	1.1040
predicted_SO	1.2350
predicted_WHIP	1.2213

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.7920	0.5148	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1740	0.1131	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.4176	1.4176	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.5570	0.7121	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0120	0.0078	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.1040	1.0676	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.2350	1.1528	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2213	1.2213	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	4
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	3.06
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	3
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260502_CIN@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	683175
playerID	683175
playerName	Connor Phillips
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Emilio Pagán (641941) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 14

All-history rows before 20260505: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.714	2.000	3.286	2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.950	0.200	0.050	0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.786	1.000	0.214	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.667	5.000	8.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	9.6429	1.7143	1.0714	1.7143	0.0000	0.4286	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	9.667	5.000	9.000	5.000	6.000	1.000	4.6552	1.4483	0.5172	0.9310	0.5172	0.6207	0.1035
season	0.20	14	14.000	10.000	14.000	6.000	11.000	3.000	6.4286	1.4286	0.7143	1.0000	0.4286	0.7857	0.2143

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2560
predicted_ER	0.7720
predicted_ERA	7.2543
predicted_H	1.2430
predicted_HR	0.1680
predicted_IP	0.9580
predicted_SO	0.5440
predicted_WHIP	1.5641

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.2560	0.8664	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	4.0000	0.7720	1.9018	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	7.2543	7.2543	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	1.2430	1.8579	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	2.0000	0.1680	0.8092	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9580	0.9727	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.5440	0.7036	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5641	1.5641	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	3
R	4
ER	4
BB	2
SO	1
HR	2
BF	8
Pitches	39

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	6.43
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L, BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	641941
playerID	641941
playerName	Emilio Pagán
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Graham Ashcraft (668933) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 17

All-history rows before 20260505: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.971	1.200	0.029	-0.200
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.118	2.000	-0.118	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.667	0.000	3.000	6.000	5.000	0.0000	1.5882	0.0000	0.5294	1.0588	0.8823
last_10	0.35	10	10.667	0.000	6.000	9.000	8.000	0.0000	1.4062	0.0000	0.5625	0.8438	0.7500
season	0.20	17	17.667	2.000	11.000	12.000	19.000	1.0189	1.3019	0.1132	0.6226	0.6793	1.0755

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.9900
predicted_ER	0.0250
predicted_ERA	0.2038
predicted_H	0.6110
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0910
predicted_SO	0.9540
predicted_WHIP	1.4672

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.9900	0.6435	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0250	0.0163	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.2038	0.2038	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.6110	0.7471	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0910	1.0592	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9540	0.9701	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4672	1.4672	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	8
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.02
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	28
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	16
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	668933
playerID	668933
playerName	Graham Ashcraft
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Tony Santillan (663574) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 15

All-history rows before 20260505: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.267	1.000	-0.267	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.947	1.000	0.053	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.667	4.000	7.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	7.7143	2.1429	0.8571	1.5000	0.6429	0.6429	0.4286
last_10	0.35	10	9.667	4.000	9.000	5.000	8.000	2.000	3.7241	1.4483	0.4138	0.9310	0.5172	0.8276	0.2069
season	0.20	15	14.667	4.000	10.000	9.000	15.000	2.000	2.4545	1.2955	0.2727	0.6818	0.6136	1.0227	0.1364

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5660
predicted_ER	0.5580
predicted_ERA	5.2658
predicted_H	1.0850
predicted_HR	0.2790
predicted_IP	0.9540
predicted_SO	0.7470
predicted_WHIP	1.7303

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5660	0.3679	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5580	0.3627	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.2658	5.2658	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0850	0.7053	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2790	0.1814	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9540	0.9701	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.7470	0.8356	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.7303	1.7303	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.45
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_CIN@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	663574
playerID	663574
playerName	Tony Santillan
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CIN
teamID	7

Home Team: CHC

Nico Hoerner (663538) · BATTER · 2B · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 33

All-history rows before 20260505: 33

System season_avg: 0.2940

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2941

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.273	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.121	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.121	4.000	-0.121	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.241	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.294	0.250	-0.294	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.394	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.394	0.000	0.606	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.920	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.212	1.000	-1.212	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.121	0.000	-0.121	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.299	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.365	0.200	-0.165	0.000
predicted_R	0.515	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.515	0.000	0.485	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.620	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.818	1.000	-0.818	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.212	0.000	-0.212	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.328	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.449	0.250	-0.449	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.424	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.424	0.000	0.576	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.273	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.121	-
predicted_AVG	0.241	-
predicted_BB	0.394	-
predicted_H	0.920	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.299	-
predicted_R	0.515	-
predicted_RBI	0.620	-
predicted_SLG	0.328	-
predicted_SO	0.424	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.293	0.020
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.266	0.145
predicted_AVG	0.241	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.317	-0.077
predicted_H	1.001	0.081
predicted_HBP	0.149	-
predicted_HR	0.024	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.299	0.000
predicted_R	0.354	-0.161
predicted_RBI	0.673	0.053
predicted_SLG	0.328	0.000
predicted_SO	0.332	-0.092

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.27), rates preserved: AVG=0.235 HR/AB=0.006

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=15.0, BvP AVG=0.267)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 4.121

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.2273	0.2800	0.3182	0.2273	0.0000	0.1818	0.0454	0.0454
last_10	0.35	10	-	44.000	10.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	0.2273	0.2857	0.2727	0.2273	0.0000	0.1136	0.0682	0.0682
season	0.20	33	-	136.000	40.000	9.000	4.000	27.000	17.000	13.000	14.000	0.2941	0.3654	0.4485	0.2941	0.0294	0.1985	0.0956	0.1029

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3040
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.3440
predicted_AVG	0.2407
predicted_BB	0.2760
predicted_H	1.0450
predicted_HBP	0.1490
predicted_HR	0.0260
predicted_OBP	0.2991
predicted_R	0.2670
predicted_RBI	0.7010
predicted_SLG	0.3283
predicted_SO	0.2820

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2730	0.3040	0.2932	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1210	4.3440	4.2660	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2410	0.2407	0.2408	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3940	0.2760	0.3173	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9200	1.0450	1.0012	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1490	0.1490	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0260	0.0239	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2990	0.2991	0.2991	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5150	0.2670	0.3538	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6200	0.7010	0.6726	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3280	0.3283	0.3282	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4240	0.2820	0.3317	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.294

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260504_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	663538
playerID	663538
playerName	Nico Hoerner
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	CHC
teamID	5

Michael Busch (683737) · BATTER · 1B · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 33

All-history rows before 20260505: 33

System season_avg: 0.2060

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2063

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.212	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.212	0.000	0.788	1.000
predicted_3B	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_AB	3.818	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.818	3.000	0.182	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.261	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.206	0.000	0.294	0.500
predicted_BB	0.545	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.545	1.000	-0.545	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.788	0.000	1.212	2.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.383	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.311	0.250	0.189	0.250
predicted_R	0.455	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.455	0.000	0.545	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.790	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.485	0.000	0.515	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.485	0.750	0.750	Hitting_SLG	0.325	0.000	0.425	0.750
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.212	-
predicted_3B	0.030	-
predicted_AB	3.818	-
predicted_AVG	0.261	-
predicted_BB	0.545	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.383	-
predicted_R	0.455	-
predicted_RBI	0.790	-
predicted_SLG	0.485	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.395	0.183
predicted_3B	0.098	0.068
predicted_AB	3.646	-0.172
predicted_AVG	0.261	0.000
predicted_BB	0.659	0.114
predicted_H	0.890	0.070
predicted_HBP	0.080	-
predicted_HR	0.011	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.383	0.000
predicted_R	0.321	-0.135
predicted_RBI	0.859	0.069
predicted_SLG	0.485	0.000
predicted_SO	0.901	-0.099

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.233 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.818

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	5.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	6.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	0.2941	0.4091	0.5882	0.2941	0.0000	0.3529	0.2353	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	9.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	7.000	2.000	7.000	11.000	0.2500	0.3913	0.4444	0.2500	0.0000	0.1944	0.1944	0.3056
season	0.20	33	-	126.000	26.000	7.000	1.000	2.000	16.000	15.000	18.000	33.000	0.2063	0.3108	0.3254	0.2064	0.0159	0.1270	0.1429	0.2619

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4940
predicted_3B	0.1340
predicted_AB	3.5540
predicted_AVG	0.2611
predicted_BB	0.7200
predicted_H	0.9280
predicted_HBP	0.0800
predicted_HR	0.0110
predicted_OBP	0.3832
predicted_R	0.2480
predicted_RBI	0.8960
predicted_SLG	0.4853
predicted_SO	0.8480

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2120	0.4940	0.3953	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0300	0.1340	0.0976	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8180	3.5540	3.6464	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2610	0.2611	0.2611	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5450	0.7200	0.6587	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	0.9280	0.8902	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0800	0.0800	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0110	0.0106	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3830	0.3832	0.3831	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4550	0.2480	0.3205	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7900	0.8960	0.8589	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4850	0.4853	0.4852	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8480	0.9012	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.206

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260504_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	683737
playerID	683737
playerName	Michael Busch
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	CHC
teamID	5

Ian Happ (664023) · BATTER · LF · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 33

All-history rows before 20260505: 33

System season_avg: 0.2420

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2419

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_3B	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_AB	3.758	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.758	3.000	-0.758	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.275	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.242	0.000	-0.242	0.000
predicted_BB	0.758	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.758	1.000	0.242	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.940	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.909	0.000	-0.909	0.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.242	0.000	-0.242	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.468	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.377	0.250	-0.127	0.000
predicted_R	0.788	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.788	1.000	0.212	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.455	0.000	-0.455	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.613	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SO	1.303	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.303	2.000	-1.303	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.030	-
predicted_AB	3.758	-
predicted_AVG	0.275	-
predicted_BB	0.758	-
predicted_H	0.940	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.468	-
predicted_R	0.788	-
predicted_RBI	0.220	-
predicted_SLG	0.613	-
predicted_SO	1.303	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.256	0.074
predicted_3B	0.100	0.070
predicted_AB	3.410	-0.348
predicted_AVG	0.275	-0.000
predicted_BB	1.019	0.261
predicted_H	0.905	-0.035
predicted_HBP	0.046	-
predicted_HR	0.175	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.468	-0.000
predicted_R	0.924	0.136
predicted_RBI	0.213	-0.007
predicted_SLG	0.613	0.000
predicted_SO	1.253	-0.050

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.241 HR/AB=0.047

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=16.0, BvP AVG=0.125)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	7.000	6.000	0.3333	0.5455	0.8000	0.3333	0.0667	0.0667	0.4667	0.4000
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	10.000	12.000	0.2188	0.4186	0.4375	0.2188	0.0312	0.0312	0.3125	0.3750
season	0.20	33	-	124.000	30.000	6.000	1.000	8.000	15.000	26.000	25.000	43.000	0.2419	0.3775	0.5000	0.2419	0.0645	0.1210	0.2016	0.3468

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2950
predicted_3B	0.1370
predicted_AB	3.2220
predicted_AVG	0.2749
predicted_BB	1.1590
predicted_H	0.8860
predicted_HBP	0.0460
predicted_HR	0.1730
predicted_OBP	0.4675
predicted_R	0.9970
predicted_RBI	0.2100
predicted_SLG	0.6131
predicted_SO	1.2260

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.2950	0.2555	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0300	0.1370	0.0995	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7580	3.2220	3.4096	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2750	0.2749	0.2749	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7580	1.1590	1.0187	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9400	0.8860	0.9049	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0460	0.0460	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.1730	0.1754	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4680	0.4675	0.4677	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7880	0.9970	0.9239	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2200	0.2100	0.2135	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6130	0.6131	0.6131	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3030	1.2260	1.2530	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.242

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260504_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	664023
playerID	664023
playerName	Ian Happ
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	CHC
teamID	5

Alex Bregman (608324) · BATTER · DH · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 34

All-history rows before 20260505: 34

System season_avg: 0.2340

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2336

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.147	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.147	1.000	0.853	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	4.029	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.029	3.000	-0.029	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.177	0.750	0.750	Hitting_AVG	0.234	0.333	0.516	0.417
predicted_BB	0.559	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.559	1.000	-0.559	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.650	3.000	3.000	Hitting_H	0.941	1.000	2.059	2.000
predicted_HR	0.050	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.088	0.000	0.912	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.316	0.750	0.750	Hitting_OBP	0.329	0.500	0.421	0.250
predicted_R	0.353	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.353	1.000	0.647	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.220	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.324	0.000	1.676	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.296	1.750	1.750	Hitting_SLG	0.350	0.667	1.400	1.083
predicted_SO	0.706	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.706	0.000	-0.706	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.147	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	4.029	-
predicted_AVG	0.177	-
predicted_BB	0.559	-
predicted_H	0.650	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.316	-
predicted_R	0.353	-
predicted_RBI	0.220	-
predicted_SLG	0.296	-
predicted_SO	0.706	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.236	0.089
predicted_3B	0.013	-0.016
predicted_AB	3.852	-0.177
predicted_AVG	0.177	0.000
predicted_BB	0.665	0.106
predicted_H	0.660	0.010
predicted_HBP	0.040	-
predicted_HR	0.051	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.316	-0.000
predicted_R	0.462	0.109
predicted_RBI	0.222	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.296	0.000
predicted_SO	0.696	-0.010

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.03), rates preserved: AVG=0.164 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 4.029

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	0.1667	0.3182	0.2778	0.1667	0.0000	0.0556	0.2222	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	7.000	8.000	0.1579	0.3043	0.2895	0.1579	0.0263	0.0526	0.1842	0.2105
season	0.20	34	-	137.000	32.000	5.000	1.000	3.000	11.000	12.000	19.000	24.000	0.2336	0.3291	0.3504	0.2336	0.0219	0.0803	0.1387	0.1752

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2840
predicted_3B	0.0050
predicted_AB	3.7560
predicted_AVG	0.1770
predicted_BB	0.7220
predicted_H	0.6650
predicted_HBP	0.0400
predicted_HR	0.0510
predicted_OBP	0.3155
predicted_R	0.5200
predicted_RBI	0.2230
predicted_SLG	0.2964
predicted_SO	0.6900

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1470	0.2840	0.2360	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0050	0.0134	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0290	3.7560	3.8515	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1770	0.1770	0.1770	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5590	0.7220	0.6650	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6500	0.6650	0.6598	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0400	0.0400	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0510	0.0507	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3160	0.3155	0.3157	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3530	0.5200	0.4616	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2200	0.2230	0.2219	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2960	0.2964	0.2963	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7060	0.6900	0.6956	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	3
2B	1
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.234

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260504_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	608324
playerID	608324
playerName	Alex Bregman
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	CHC
teamID	5

Pete Crow-Armstrong (691718) · BATTER · CF · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 34

All-history rows before 20260505: 34

System season_avg: 0.2400

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2403

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.118	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_3B	0.059	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.059	1.000	-0.059	-1.000
predicted_AB	3.794	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.794	4.000	0.206	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.221	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.240	0.250	-0.240	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.294	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.294	0.000	-0.294	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.088	0.000	-0.088	0.000
predicted_H	0.630	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.912	1.000	-0.912	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.088	0.000	-0.088	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.284	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.305	0.250	-0.305	-0.250
predicted_R	0.618	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.618	1.000	-0.618	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.382	0.000	-0.382	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.476	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.372	0.750	-0.372	-0.750
predicted_SO	1.118	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.118	1.000	0.882	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.118	-
predicted_3B	0.059	-
predicted_AB	3.794	-
predicted_AVG	0.221	-
predicted_BB	0.294	-
predicted_H	0.630	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.284	-
predicted_R	0.618	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.476	-
predicted_SO	1.118	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.138	0.020
predicted_3B	0.109	0.050
predicted_AB	3.752	-0.042
predicted_AVG	0.221	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.316	0.022
predicted_H	0.755	0.125
predicted_HBP	0.012	-
predicted_HR	0.165	0.025
predicted_OBP	0.284	0.000
predicted_R	0.632	0.014
predicted_RBI	0.513	0.083
predicted_SLG	0.476	0.000
predicted_SO	0.965	-0.153

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.199 HR/AB=0.043

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	0.2105	0.2500	0.5263	0.2105	0.0526	0.1579	0.0526	0.1579
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	7.000	5.000	11.000	0.2222	0.3171	0.4722	0.2222	0.0556	0.1667	0.1389	0.3056
season	0.20	34	-	129.000	31.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	13.000	21.000	10.000	38.000	0.2403	0.3050	0.3721	0.2403	0.0233	0.1008	0.0775	0.2946

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1480
predicted_3B	0.1360
predicted_AB	3.7290
predicted_AVG	0.2206
predicted_BB	0.3270
predicted_H	0.8220
predicted_HBP	0.0120
predicted_HR	0.1780
predicted_OBP	0.2845
predicted_R	0.6400
predicted_RBI	0.5580
predicted_SLG	0.4765
predicted_SO	0.8830

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1180	0.1480	0.1375	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0590	0.1360	0.1091	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7940	3.7290	3.7518	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2210	0.2206	0.2207	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2940	0.3270	0.3155	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6300	0.8220	0.7548	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0120	0.0120	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1780	0.1647	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2840	0.2845	0.2843	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6180	0.6400	0.6323	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.5580	0.5132	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4760	0.4765	0.4763	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1180	0.8830	0.9653	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	1
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260504_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	691718
playerID	691718
playerName	Pete Crow-Armstrong
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	CHC
teamID	5

Seiya Suzuki (673548) · BATTER · RF · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 20

All-history rows before 20260505: 20

System season_avg: 0.3290

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3289

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.800	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.800	3.000	0.200	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.345	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.329	0.667	-0.079	-0.417
predicted_BB	0.550	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.550	1.000	-0.550	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.180	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.250	2.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.270	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.300	1.000	0.700	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.420	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.422	0.750	-0.172	-0.500
predicted_R	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.800	1.000	0.200	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.680	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.650	3.000	1.350	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.617	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.592	1.667	0.408	-0.667
predicted_SO	1.050	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.050	0.000	-0.050	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.800	-
predicted_AVG	0.345	-
predicted_BB	0.550	-
predicted_H	1.180	-
predicted_HR	0.270	-
predicted_OBP	0.420	-
predicted_R	0.800	-
predicted_RBI	0.680	-
predicted_SLG	0.617	-
predicted_SO	1.050	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.130	0.030
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.741	-0.058
predicted_AVG	0.345	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.555	0.005
predicted_H	1.244	0.064
predicted_HBP	0.020	-
predicted_HR	0.282	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.420	-0.000
predicted_R	0.740	-0.060
predicted_RBI	0.717	0.037
predicted_SLG	0.617	0.000
predicted_SO	1.024	-0.026

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.327 HR/AB=0.074

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=13.0, BvP AVG=0.231)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	5.000	0.3333	0.4091	0.5556	0.3333	0.0556	0.2222	0.1667	0.2778
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	14.000	1.000	4.000	7.000	8.000	5.000	10.000	0.3684	0.4318	0.7105	0.3684	0.1053	0.1842	0.1316	0.2632
season	0.20	20	-	76.000	25.000	2.000	6.000	13.000	16.000	11.000	21.000	0.3289	0.4222	0.5921	0.3290	0.0790	0.1711	0.1447	0.2763

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1460
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7100
predicted_AVG	0.3447
predicted_BB	0.5570
predicted_H	1.2790
predicted_HBP	0.0200
predicted_HR	0.2880
predicted_OBP	0.4197
predicted_R	0.7080
predicted_RBI	0.7370
predicted_SLG	0.6171
predicted_SO	1.0100

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1000	0.1460	0.1299	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8000	3.7100	3.7415	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3450	0.3447	0.3448	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5500	0.5570	0.5546	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1800	1.2790	1.2443	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0200	0.0200	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2700	0.2880	0.2817	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4200	0.4197	0.4198	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8000	0.7080	0.7402	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6800	0.7370	0.7170	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6170	0.6171	0.6171	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0500	1.0100	1.0240	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.329

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	1
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260504_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	673548
playerID	673548
playerName	Seiya Suzuki
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	CHC
teamID	5

Matt Shaw (807713) · BATTER · 3B · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 19

All-history rows before 20260505: 19

System season_avg: 0.2790

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2787

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.263	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.263	0.000	-0.263	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.211	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.211	3.000	0.789	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.309	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.279	0.000	-0.279	0.000
predicted_BB	0.263	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.263	0.000	-0.263	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.895	0.000	-0.895	0.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.381	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.328	0.000	-0.328	0.000
predicted_R	0.421	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.421	0.000	-0.421	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.474	0.000	-0.474	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.547	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.508	0.000	-0.508	0.000
predicted_SO	0.684	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.684	1.000	-0.684	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.263	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.211	-
predicted_AVG	0.309	-
predicted_BB	0.263	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.381	-
predicted_R	0.421	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.547	-
predicted_SO	0.684	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.277	0.014
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.182	-0.029
predicted_AVG	0.309	0.000
predicted_BB	0.335	0.072
predicted_H	0.916	0.116
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.147	0.017
predicted_OBP	0.381	-0.000
predicted_R	0.433	0.012
predicted_RBI	0.273	0.033
predicted_SLG	0.547	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.664	-0.020

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.21), rates preserved: AVG=0.285 HR/AB=0.046

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, BvP AVG=0.143)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.3125	0.3889	0.5625	0.3125	0.0625	0.0625	0.1250	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	10.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	4.000	7.000	0.3226	0.4000	0.5484	0.3226	0.0323	0.0968	0.1290	0.2258
season	0.20	19	-	61.000	17.000	5.000	3.000	9.000	8.000	5.000	13.000	0.2787	0.3284	0.5082	0.2787	0.0492	0.1475	0.0820	0.2131

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2840
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.1670
predicted_AVG	0.3093
predicted_BB	0.3730
predicted_H	0.9790
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1560
predicted_OBP	0.3807
predicted_R	0.4400
predicted_RBI	0.2900
predicted_SLG	0.5467
predicted_SO	0.6530

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2630	0.2840	0.2766	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2110	3.1670	3.1824	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3090	0.3093	0.3092	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2630	0.3730	0.3345	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.9790	0.9163	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1560	0.1469	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3810	0.3807	0.3808	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4210	0.4400	0.4334	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2400	0.2900	0.2725	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5470	0.5467	0.5468	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6840	0.6530	0.6639	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.279

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260502_ARI@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	807713
playerID	807713
playerName	Matt Shaw
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	CHC
teamID	5

Miguel Amaya (665804) · BATTER · C · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 16

All-history rows before 20260505: 16

System season_avg: 0.2310

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2308

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.062	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.250	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.250	2.000	0.750	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.206	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.231	0.000	0.269	0.500
predicted_BB	0.312	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.312	1.000	-0.312	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.520	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.750	0.000	1.250	2.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.319	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.322	0.333	0.178	0.167
predicted_R	0.562	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.562	0.000	0.438	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.353	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.365	0.000	0.135	0.500
predicted_SO	0.875	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.875	1.000	1.125	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.062	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.250	-
predicted_AVG	0.206	-
predicted_BB	0.312	-
predicted_H	0.520	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.319	-
predicted_R	0.562	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.353	-
predicted_SO	0.875	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	-0.033
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.234	-0.016
predicted_AVG	0.206	0.000
predicted_BB	0.338	0.026
predicted_H	0.614	0.094
predicted_HBP	0.186	-
predicted_HR	0.142	0.022
predicted_OBP	0.319	0.000
predicted_R	0.584	0.021
predicted_RBI	0.307	0.047
predicted_SLG	0.353	0.000
predicted_SO	0.839	-0.036

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.25), rates preserved: AVG=0.189 HR/AB=0.044

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	0.2000	0.3333	0.4000	0.2000	0.0667	0.1333	0.1333	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	7.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	3.000	11.000	0.2000	0.3000	0.2857	0.2000	0.0286	0.0571	0.0857	0.3143
season	0.20	16	-	52.000	12.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	9.000	5.000	14.000	0.2308	0.3220	0.3654	0.2308	0.0385	0.1154	0.0961	0.2692

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0120
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.2250
predicted_AVG	0.2062
predicted_BB	0.3520
predicted_H	0.6650
predicted_HBP	0.1860
predicted_HR	0.1540
predicted_OBP	0.3194
predicted_R	0.5950
predicted_RBI	0.3320
predicted_SLG	0.3531
predicted_SO	0.8190

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0620	0.0120	0.0295	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2500	3.2250	3.2337	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2060	0.2062	0.2061	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3120	0.3520	0.3380	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5200	0.6650	0.6142	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1860	0.1860	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1540	0.1421	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3190	0.3194	0.3193	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5620	0.5950	0.5835	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.3320	0.3068	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3530	0.3531	0.3531	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8750	0.8190	0.8386	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.231

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260502_ARI@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	665804
playerID	665804
playerName	Miguel Amaya
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	CHC
teamID	5

Dansby Swanson (621020) · BATTER · SS · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 33

All-history rows before 20260505: 33

System season_avg: 0.1980

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1982

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_3B	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_AB	3.364	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.364	4.000	0.636	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.223	0.750	0.750	Hitting_AVG	0.198	0.000	0.552	0.750
predicted_BB	0.636	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.636	0.000	-0.636	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.650	3.000	3.000	Hitting_H	0.667	0.000	2.333	3.000
predicted_HR	0.060	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.182	0.000	0.818	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.309	0.750	0.750	Hitting_OBP	0.324	0.000	0.426	0.750
predicted_R	0.727	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.727	0.000	0.273	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.667	0.000	1.333	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.310	1.500	1.500	Hitting_SLG	0.387	0.000	1.113	1.500
predicted_SO	0.909	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.909	1.000	-0.909	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.030	-
predicted_3B	0.030	-
predicted_AB	3.364	-
predicted_AVG	0.223	-
predicted_BB	0.636	-
predicted_H	0.650	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.309	-
predicted_R	0.727	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.310	-
predicted_SO	0.909	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.014	-0.016
predicted_3B	0.036	0.006
predicted_AB	3.428	0.064
predicted_AVG	0.223	0.000
predicted_BB	0.492	-0.144
predicted_H	0.730	0.080
predicted_HBP	0.040	-
predicted_HR	0.067	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.309	0.000
predicted_R	0.559	-0.168
predicted_RBI	0.439	0.049
predicted_SLG	0.310	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.712	-0.197

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.43), rates preserved: AVG=0.213 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=14.0, BvP AVG=0.357)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	0.2353	0.3158	0.2353	0.2353	0.0000	0.0588	0.1177	0.1177
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	8.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	4.000	3.000	7.000	0.2222	0.2927	0.3611	0.2222	0.0278	0.1944	0.0833	0.1944
season	0.20	33	-	111.000	22.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	22.000	24.000	21.000	30.000	0.1982	0.3235	0.3874	0.1982	0.0541	0.1982	0.1892	0.2703

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0060
predicted_3B	0.0400
predicted_AB	3.4630
predicted_AVG	0.2233
predicted_BB	0.4150
predicted_H	0.7730
predicted_HBP	0.0400
predicted_HR	0.0710
predicted_OBP	0.3093
predicted_R	0.4680
predicted_RBI	0.4650
predicted_SLG	0.3098
predicted_SO	0.6060

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0300	0.0060	0.0144	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0300	0.0400	0.0365	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3640	3.4630	3.4284	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2230	0.2233	0.2232	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6360	0.4150	0.4923	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6500	0.7730	0.7300	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0400	0.0400	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0710	0.0671	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3090	0.3093	0.3092	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7270	0.4680	0.5586	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.4650	0.4387	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3100	0.3098	0.3099	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9090	0.6060	0.7121	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	3
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.198

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260504_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	621020
playerID	621020
playerName	Dansby Swanson
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	CHC
teamID	5

Jameson Taillon (592791) · PITCHER · Starter · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 6

All-history rows before 20260505: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.833	3.000	-2.833	-3.000
predicted_IP	6.000	6.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.700	7.000	0.300	-1.000
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_SO	5.167	6.000	-1.167	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 6.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	30.000	17.000	25.000	9.000	28.000	9.000	5.1000	1.1333	0.5667	0.8333	0.3000	0.9333	0.3000
last_10	0.35	6	34.667	17.000	27.000	13.000	31.000	9.000	4.4135	1.1538	0.4904	0.7789	0.3750	0.8942	0.2596
season	0.20	6	34.667	17.000	27.000	13.000	31.000	9.000	4.4135	1.1538	0.4904	0.7789	0.3750	0.8942	0.2596

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.0060
predicted_ER	3.0840
predicted_ERA	4.7224
predicted_H	4.7220
predicted_HR	1.6330
predicted_IP	5.8780
predicted_SO	5.3600
predicted_WHIP	1.1446

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	2.0060	1.6539	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	3.0840	2.0046	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.7224	4.7224	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	4.7220	3.7693	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	1.6330	1.0615	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	6.0000	5.8780	5.9207	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	5.3600	4.8840	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1446	1.1446	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	6.0
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	4
HR	0
BF	21
Pitches	86

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	25
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	4.41
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	7.0
Pitching_Pitches	95
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	6
Pitching_Strikes	66
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260429_CHC@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	592791
playerID	592791
playerName	Jameson Taillon
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Ben Brown (676962) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 12

All-history rows before 20260505: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	2.042	1.000	-1.042	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	2.000	1.000	-1.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	9.000	1.000	6.000	2.000	9.000	0.000	1.0000	0.8889	0.1111	0.6667	0.2222	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	19.000	4.000	14.000	6.000	16.000	0.000	1.8947	1.0526	0.2105	0.7368	0.3158	0.8421	0.0000
season	0.20	12	25.667	6.000	18.000	8.000	24.000	1.000	2.1039	1.0130	0.2338	0.7013	0.3117	0.9351	0.0390

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5190
predicted_ER	0.3240
predicted_ERA	1.5339
predicted_H	1.3280
predicted_HR	0.0150
predicted_IP	1.9030
predicted_SO	1.7730
predicted_WHIP	0.9710

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5190	0.3374	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3240	0.2106	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.5339	1.5339	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.3280	0.8632	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0150	0.0097	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.9030	1.5869	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.7730	1.5025	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9710	0.9710	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.10
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	25
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	676962
playerID	676962
playerName	Ben Brown
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Jacob Webb (657097) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 14

All-history rows before 20260505: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.429	0.000	0.571	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.771	2.000	0.229	-1.000
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.071	3.000	1.929	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	7.000	1.000	1.8000	1.2000	0.2000	0.8000	0.4000	1.4000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	3.000	11.000	3.000	12.000	1.000	3.0000	1.5556	0.3333	1.2222	0.3333	1.3333	0.1111
season	0.20	14	12.667	6.000	16.000	7.000	15.000	3.000	4.2632	1.8158	0.4737	1.2632	0.5526	1.1842	0.2368

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3850
predicted_ER	0.2850
predicted_ERA	2.7126
predicted_H	0.9840
predicted_HR	0.1670
predicted_IP	0.9460
predicted_SO	1.2610
predicted_WHIP	1.4476

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3850	0.6002	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.2850	0.5353	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.7126	2.7126	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9840	0.6396	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1670	0.1086	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9460	0.9649	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	1.2610	1.8696	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4476	1.4476	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	3
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.26
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	36
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	23
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260501_ARI@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	657097
playerID	657097
playerName	Jacob Webb
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

Phil Maton (664208) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CHC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 9

All-history rows before 20260505: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.889	0.000	-0.889	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.633	0.100	0.367	0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.111	0.000	-1.111	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	4.000	7.000	1.000	6.000	0.000	9.0000	2.0000	1.0000	1.7500	0.2500	1.5000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	9	7.333	8.000	10.000	5.000	10.000	1.000	9.8182	2.0455	1.0909	1.3636	0.6818	1.3636	0.1364
season	0.20	9	7.333	8.000	10.000	5.000	10.000	1.000	9.8182	2.0455	1.0909	1.3636	0.6818	1.3636	0.1364

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3940
predicted_ER	0.8490
predicted_ERA	9.4500
predicted_H	1.2430
predicted_HR	0.0610
predicted_IP	0.8080
predicted_SO	1.1520
predicted_WHIP	2.0250

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.3940	0.6061	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.8490	0.5518	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	9.4500	9.4500	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.2430	1.5080	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0610	0.0396	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.8080	0.8752	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.1520	0.7488	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	2.0250	2.0250	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	9.82
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	4
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	2
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_CIN@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	664208
playerID	664208
playerName	Phil Maton
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CHC
teamID	5

20260505_CLE@KC

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 2, "confidence": 0.5546513078286546, "home_win_probability": 0.44534869217134543, "away_win_probability": 0.5546513078286546, "predicted_score_text": "CLE 7 - 2 KC", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "CLE 5 - 4 KC", "confidence": 0.5546513078286546, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "CLE 5 - 4 KC", "winner": "CLE"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 7, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "CLE 7 - 2 KC", "winner": "CLE"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 2, "home_run_delta": -2, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Away Team: CLE

Angel Martínez (682657) · BATTER · LF · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 25

All-history rows before 20260505: 25

System season_avg: 0.3020

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3021

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.280	1.000	-0.280	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.840	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.840	2.000	1.160	3.000
predicted_AVG	0.284	0.200	0.200	Hitting_AVG	0.302	0.500	-0.102	-0.300
predicted_BB	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.160	1.000	-0.160	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.080	0.000	-0.080	0.000
predicted_H	0.850	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.160	1.000	-0.160	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.315	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.343	0.667	-0.143	-0.467
predicted_R	0.520	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.520	0.000	-0.520	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.482	0.200	0.200	Hitting_SLG	0.531	1.000	-0.331	-0.800
predicted_SO	0.720	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.720	0.000	0.280	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.280	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.840	-
predicted_AVG	0.284	-
predicted_BB	0.160	-
predicted_H	0.850	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.315	-
predicted_R	0.520	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.482	-
predicted_SO	0.720	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.320	0.040
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.865	0.025
predicted_AVG	0.284	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.159	-0.001
predicted_H	1.013	0.163
predicted_HBP	0.016	-
predicted_HR	0.131	0.021
predicted_OBP	0.315	-0.000
predicted_R	0.420	-0.100
predicted_RBI	0.299	0.049
predicted_SLG	0.482	0.000
predicted_SO	0.806	0.086

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.86), rates preserved: AVG=0.262 HR/AB=0.034

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.840

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.2632	0.3000	0.3684	0.2632	0.0000	0.0000	0.0526	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	12.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	5.000	1.000	10.000	0.3000	0.3171	0.6000	0.3000	0.0750	0.1500	0.0250	0.2500
season	0.20	25	-	96.000	29.000	7.000	5.000	15.000	13.000	4.000	18.000	0.3021	0.3431	0.5312	0.3021	0.0521	0.1562	0.0417	0.1875

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3420
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8780
predicted_AVG	0.2839
predicted_BB	0.1580
predicted_H	1.1010
predicted_HBP	0.0160
predicted_HR	0.1420
predicted_OBP	0.3146
predicted_R	0.3670
predicted_RBI	0.3250
predicted_SLG	0.4820
predicted_SO	0.8520

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2800	0.3420	0.3203	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8400	3.8780	3.8647	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2840	0.2839	0.2839	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1600	0.1580	0.1587	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8500	1.1010	1.0131	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0160	0.0160	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1420	0.1308	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3150	0.3146	0.3147	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5200	0.3670	0.4205	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.3250	0.2988	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4820	0.4820	0.4820	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7200	0.8520	0.8058	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.302

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260504_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	682657
playerID	682657
playerName	Angel Martínez
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	CLE
teamID	8

Daniel Schneemann (682177) · BATTER · SS · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 24

All-history rows before 20260505: 24

System season_avg: 0.2890

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2892

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.292	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.292	0.000	-0.292	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.458	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.458	4.000	1.542	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.223	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.289	0.000	-0.289	0.000
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_H	0.630	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.262	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.352	0.000	-0.352	0.000
predicted_R	0.458	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.458	0.000	0.542	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.170	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.339	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.518	0.000	-0.518	0.000
predicted_SO	1.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.125	1.000	-1.125	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.292	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.458	-
predicted_AVG	0.223	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.630	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.262	-
predicted_R	0.458	-
predicted_RBI	0.170	-
predicted_SLG	0.339	-
predicted_SO	1.125	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.164	-0.128
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.509	0.051
predicted_AVG	0.223	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.253	-0.080
predicted_H	0.733	0.103
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.096	0.016
predicted_OBP	0.262	0.000
predicted_R	0.290	-0.168
predicted_RBI	0.195	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.339	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.210	0.085

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.51), rates preserved: AVG=0.209 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	6.000	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667	0.1667	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	9.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	14.000	0.2571	0.3333	0.4571	0.2571	0.0571	0.0857	0.1143	0.4000
season	0.20	24	-	83.000	24.000	7.000	4.000	12.000	11.000	8.000	27.000	0.2892	0.3516	0.5181	0.2892	0.0482	0.1446	0.0964	0.3253

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0950
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5370
predicted_AVG	0.2228
predicted_BB	0.2100
predicted_H	0.7880
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1050
predicted_OBP	0.2620
predicted_R	0.2000
predicted_RBI	0.2080
predicted_SLG	0.3386
predicted_SO	1.2560

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2920	0.0950	0.1639	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4580	3.5370	3.5093	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2230	0.2228	0.2229	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.2100	0.2530	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6300	0.7880	0.7327	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.1050	0.0963	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2620	0.2620	0.2620	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4580	0.2000	0.2903	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1700	0.2080	0.1947	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3390	0.3386	0.3387	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1250	1.2560	1.2102	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.289

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260504_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	682177
playerID	682177
playerName	Daniel Schneemann
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	CLE
teamID	8

Travis Bazzana (683953) · BATTER · 2B · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 6

All-history rows before 20260505: 6

System season_avg: 0.2000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.333	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.333	4.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.210	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.200	0.250	0.133	0.083
predicted_BB	1.000	2.000	2.000	Hitting_BB	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.570	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.667	1.000	0.333	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.375	0.600	0.600	Hitting_OBP	0.385	0.250	0.215	0.350
predicted_R	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.667	1.000	0.333	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	1.667	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.210	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.200	0.250	0.133	0.083
predicted_SO	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.333	-
predicted_AVG	0.210	-
predicted_BB	1.000	-
predicted_H	0.570	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.375	-
predicted_R	0.667	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.210	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.411	0.078
predicted_AVG	0.210	0.000
predicted_BB	0.945	-0.055
predicted_H	0.671	0.101
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.375	0.000
predicted_R	0.705	0.038
predicted_RBI	0.334	0.054
predicted_SLG	0.210	0.000
predicted_SO	0.649	-0.018

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.197 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	0.2222	0.3636	0.2222	0.2222	0.1111	0.2222	0.1667
last_10	0.35	6	-	20.000	4.000	2.000	4.000	6.000	4.000	0.2000	0.3846	0.2000	0.2000	0.1000	0.3000	0.2000
season	0.20	6	-	20.000	4.000	2.000	4.000	6.000	4.000	0.2000	0.3846	0.2000	0.2000	0.1000	0.3000	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4530
predicted_AVG	0.2100
predicted_BB	0.9150
predicted_H	0.7250
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.3751
predicted_R	0.7250
predicted_RBI	0.3630
predicted_SLG	0.2100
predicted_SO	0.6390

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3330	3.4530	3.4110	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2100	0.2100	0.2100	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.9150	0.9447	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5700	0.7250	0.6707	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3750	0.3751	0.3751	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6670	0.7250	0.7047	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.3630	0.3339	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2100	0.2100	0.2100	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.6390	0.6488	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	2
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.2

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260504_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	683953
playerID	683953
playerName	Travis Bazzana
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	CLE
teamID	8

Rhys Hoskins (656555) · BATTER · DH · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 23

All-history rows before 20260505: 23

System season_avg: 0.2110

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2105

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.261	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.261	0.000	-0.261	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.304	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.304	4.000	0.696	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.174	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.211	0.000	0.039	0.250
predicted_BB	0.609	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.609	0.000	0.391	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.696	0.000	0.304	1.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.087	0.000	-0.087	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.332	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.337	0.000	0.063	0.400
predicted_R	0.565	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.565	0.000	0.435	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.391	0.000	0.609	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.380	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.368	0.000	-0.118	0.250
predicted_SO	1.087	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.087	0.000	-1.087	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.261	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.304	-
predicted_AVG	0.174	-
predicted_BB	0.609	-
predicted_H	0.500	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.332	-
predicted_R	0.565	-
predicted_RBI	0.600	-
predicted_SLG	0.380	-
predicted_SO	1.087	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.207	-0.054
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.110	-0.194
predicted_AVG	0.174	0.000
predicted_BB	0.628	0.019
predicted_H	0.515	0.015
predicted_HBP	0.138	-
predicted_HR	0.144	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.332	0.000
predicted_R	0.545	-0.020
predicted_RBI	0.618	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.380	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.043	-0.044

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.30), rates preserved: AVG=0.156 HR/AB=0.044

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	0.1429	0.3158	0.4286	0.1429	0.0714	0.2857	0.2143	0.3571
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	7.000	7.000	10.000	0.1935	0.3500	0.3226	0.1935	0.0323	0.1613	0.2258	0.3226
season	0.20	23	-	76.000	16.000	6.000	2.000	9.000	13.000	14.000	25.000	0.2105	0.3370	0.3684	0.2105	0.0263	0.1184	0.1842	0.3290

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1780
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.0060
predicted_AVG	0.1741
predicted_BB	0.6380
predicted_H	0.5230
predicted_HBP	0.1380
predicted_HR	0.1460
predicted_OBP	0.3320
predicted_R	0.5340
predicted_RBI	0.6270
predicted_SLG	0.3795
predicted_SO	1.0200

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2610	0.1780	0.2071	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3040	3.0060	3.1103	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1740	0.1741	0.1741	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6090	0.6380	0.6279	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5000	0.5230	0.5150	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1380	0.1380	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1460	0.1439	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3320	0.3320	0.3320	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5650	0.5340	0.5449	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6000	0.6270	0.6176	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3800	0.3795	0.3797	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0870	1.0200	1.0434	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.211

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260504_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	656555
playerID	656555
playerName	Rhys Hoskins
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	CLE
teamID	8

Chase DeLauter (800050) · BATTER · RF · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 29

All-history rows before 20260505: 29

System season_avg: 0.3000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.276	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.276	0.000	-0.276	0.000
predicted_3B	0.034	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_AB	3.793	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.793	4.000	0.207	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.492	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.300	0.500	-0.050	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.552	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.552	0.000	0.448	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.690	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.138	2.000	-0.138	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.207	1.000	-0.207	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.567	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.386	0.500	0.014	-0.100
predicted_R	0.517	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.517	1.000	0.483	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.850	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.724	1.000	-0.724	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.741	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.555	1.250	-0.305	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.483	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.483	1.000	0.517	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.276	-
predicted_3B	0.034	-
predicted_AB	3.793	-
predicted_AVG	0.492	-
predicted_BB	0.552	-
predicted_H	1.690	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.567	-
predicted_R	0.517	-
predicted_RBI	0.850	-
predicted_SLG	0.741	-
predicted_SO	0.483	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.319	0.043
predicted_3B	0.039	0.005
predicted_AB	3.738	-0.055
predicted_AVG	0.492	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.638	0.086
predicted_H	1.776	0.086
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.161	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.567	-0.000
predicted_R	0.516	-0.001
predicted_RBI	0.891	0.041
predicted_SLG	0.741	0.000
predicted_SO	0.417	-0.066

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.468 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	2.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	11.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	0.6111	0.6818	0.8889	0.6111	0.0556	0.2778	0.2222	0.1111
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	17.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	9.000	4.000	6.000	3.000	0.4474	0.5227	0.6579	0.4474	0.0263	0.2368	0.1579	0.0790
season	0.20	29	-	110.000	33.000	8.000	1.000	6.000	21.000	15.000	16.000	14.000	0.3000	0.3858	0.5545	0.3000	0.0546	0.1909	0.1454	0.1273

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3420
predicted_3B	0.0410
predicted_AB	3.7090
predicted_AVG	0.4916
predicted_BB	0.6840
predicted_H	1.8230
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1670
predicted_OBP	0.5669
predicted_R	0.5160
predicted_RBI	0.9130
predicted_SLG	0.7412
predicted_SO	0.3820

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2760	0.3420	0.3189	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0340	0.0410	0.0386	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7930	3.7090	3.7384	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.4920	0.4916	0.4917	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5520	0.6840	0.6378	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.6900	1.8230	1.7764	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1670	0.1610	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.5670	0.5669	0.5669	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5170	0.5160	0.5164	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8500	0.9130	0.8910	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.7410	0.7412	0.7411	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4830	0.3820	0.4173	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.3

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260503_CLE@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	800050
playerID	800050
playerName	Chase DeLauter
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	CLE
teamID	8

Steven Kwan (680757) · BATTER · CF · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 33

All-history rows before 20260505: 33

System season_avg: 0.2170

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2171

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.152	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.152	0.000	-0.152	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.909	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.909	4.000	0.091	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.207	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.217	0.000	0.283	0.500
predicted_BB	0.485	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.485	0.000	-0.485	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_H	0.750	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.848	0.000	1.152	2.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.334	0.600	0.600	Hitting_OBP	0.311	0.000	0.289	0.600
predicted_R	0.455	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.455	0.000	0.545	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.260	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.279	0.000	0.221	0.500
predicted_SO	0.515	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.515	0.000	-0.515	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.152	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.909	-
predicted_AVG	0.207	-
predicted_BB	0.485	-
predicted_H	0.750	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.334	-
predicted_R	0.455	-
predicted_RBI	0.170	-
predicted_SLG	0.260	-
predicted_SO	0.515	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.177	0.025
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.911	0.002
predicted_AVG	0.207	0.000
predicted_BB	0.568	0.083
predicted_H	0.789	0.039
predicted_HBP	0.136	-
predicted_HR	0.007	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.334	-0.000
predicted_R	0.645	0.190
predicted_RBI	0.176	0.006
predicted_SLG	0.260	0.000
predicted_SO	0.479	-0.036

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.91), rates preserved: AVG=0.202 HR/AB=0.002

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.909

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	2.000	0.2000	0.3333	0.2500	0.2000	0.0000	0.0500	0.1500	0.1000
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	8.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	6.000	7.000	5.000	0.2105	0.3478	0.2632	0.2105	0.0000	0.0263	0.1842	0.1316
season	0.20	33	-	129.000	28.000	5.000	1.000	9.000	15.000	16.000	17.000	0.2171	0.3108	0.2791	0.2170	0.0077	0.0698	0.1240	0.1318

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1900
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9120
predicted_AVG	0.2071
predicted_BB	0.6130
predicted_H	0.8100
predicted_HBP	0.1360
predicted_HR	0.0060
predicted_OBP	0.3339
predicted_R	0.7470
predicted_RBI	0.1790
predicted_SLG	0.2604
predicted_SO	0.4590

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1520	0.1900	0.1767	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9090	3.9120	3.9109	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2070	0.2071	0.2071	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4850	0.6130	0.5682	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7500	0.8100	0.7890	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1360	0.1360	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0060	0.0074	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3340	0.3339	0.3339	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4550	0.7470	0.6448	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1700	0.1790	0.1759	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2600	0.2604	0.2603	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5150	0.4590	0.4786	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.217

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260504_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	680757
playerID	680757
playerName	Steven Kwan
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	CLE
teamID	8

José Ramírez (608070) · BATTER · 3B · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 36

All-history rows before 20260505: 36

System season_avg: 0.2180

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2180

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.694	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.694	4.000	0.306	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.196	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.218	0.250	-0.218	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_H	0.670	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.806	1.000	-0.806	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.300	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.338	0.250	-0.138	-0.050
predicted_R	0.556	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.556	0.000	-0.556	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.389	0.000	-0.389	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.361	0.000	-0.361	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.307	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.414	0.250	-0.414	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.583	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.583	1.000	0.417	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.222	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.694	-
predicted_AVG	0.196	-
predicted_BB	0.667	-
predicted_H	0.670	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.300	-
predicted_R	0.556	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.307	-
predicted_SO	0.583	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.291	0.069
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.830	0.136
predicted_AVG	0.196	0.000
predicted_BB	0.610	-0.057
predicted_H	0.733	0.063
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.033	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.300	-0.000
predicted_R	0.373	-0.183
predicted_RBI	0.315	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.307	0.000
predicted_SO	0.627	0.044

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.191 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	0.2000	0.3043	0.3000	0.2000	0.0000	0.1000	0.1500	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	7.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	0.1795	0.2727	0.2564	0.1795	0.0000	0.0513	0.1282	0.1282
season	0.20	36	-	133.000	29.000	8.000	6.000	14.000	20.000	24.000	21.000	0.2180	0.3376	0.4135	0.2180	0.0451	0.1053	0.1804	0.1579

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3280
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9040
predicted_AVG	0.1964
predicted_BB	0.5800
predicted_H	0.7670
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0350
predicted_OBP	0.2999
predicted_R	0.2750
predicted_RBI	0.3280
predicted_SLG	0.3074
predicted_SO	0.6500

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2220	0.3280	0.2909	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6940	3.9040	3.8305	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1960	0.1964	0.1963	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6670	0.5800	0.6104	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6700	0.7670	0.7330	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0350	0.0333	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3000	0.2999	0.2999	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5560	0.2750	0.3734	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.3280	0.3147	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3070	0.3074	0.3073	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5830	0.6500	0.6266	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.218

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260504_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	608070
playerID	608070
playerName	José Ramírez
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	CLE
teamID	8

Kyle Manzardo (700932) · BATTER · 1B · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 25

All-history rows before 20260505: 25

System season_avg: 0.1690

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1685

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.560	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.560	4.000	-0.560	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.133	0.667	0.667	Hitting_AVG	0.169	0.500	0.498	0.167
predicted_BB	0.320	2.000	2.000	Hitting_BB	0.320	0.000	1.680	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.430	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.600	2.000	1.400	0.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.185	0.800	0.800	Hitting_OBP	0.250	0.500	0.550	0.300
predicted_R	0.160	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.160	0.000	0.840	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.240	0.000	-0.240	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.141	0.667	0.667	Hitting_SLG	0.213	0.500	0.453	0.167
predicted_SO	1.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.320	0.000	-1.320	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.040	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.560	-
predicted_AVG	0.133	-
predicted_BB	0.320	-
predicted_H	0.430	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.185	-
predicted_R	0.160	-
predicted_RBI	0.200	-
predicted_SLG	0.141	-
predicted_SO	1.320	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.020	-0.020
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.766	0.206
predicted_AVG	0.133	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.282	-0.038
predicted_H	0.485	0.055
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.009	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.185	-0.000
predicted_R	0.158	-0.002
predicted_RBI	0.229	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.141	0.000
predicted_SO	1.272	-0.048

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.129 HR/AB=0.002

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.1000	0.1364	0.1000	0.1000	0.0000	0.0500	0.0500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	15.000	0.1538	0.2093	0.1538	0.1538	0.0000	0.0769	0.0769	0.3846
season	0.20	25	-	89.000	15.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	4.000	8.000	33.000	0.1685	0.2500	0.2135	0.1685	0.0112	0.0674	0.0899	0.3708

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0090
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8770
predicted_AVG	0.1325
predicted_BB	0.2610
predicted_H	0.5140
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.0090
predicted_OBP	0.1846
predicted_R	0.1570
predicted_RBI	0.2440
predicted_SLG	0.1415
predicted_SO	1.2460

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0400	0.0090	0.0198	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5600	3.8770	3.7660	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1330	0.1325	0.1327	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3200	0.2610	0.2817	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4300	0.5140	0.4846	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0090	0.0094	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1850	0.1846	0.1847	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1600	0.1570	0.1580	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2000	0.2440	0.2286	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1410	0.1415	0.1413	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3200	1.2460	1.2719	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.169

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260503_CLE@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	700932
playerID	700932
playerName	Kyle Manzardo
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	CLE
teamID	8

Bo Naylor (666310) · BATTER · C · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 21

All-history rows before 20260505: 21

System season_avg: 0.1370

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1370

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.095	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.095	0.000	-0.095	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.476	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.476	3.000	1.524	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.116	0.400	0.400	Hitting_AVG	0.137	0.000	0.263	0.400
predicted_BB	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.190	0.000	-0.190	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.300	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.476	0.000	1.524	2.000
predicted_HR	0.030	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.048	0.000	0.952	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.134	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.182	0.000	0.218	0.400
predicted_R	0.143	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.143	0.000	0.857	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.140	3.000	3.000	Hitting_RBI	0.190	0.000	2.810	3.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.194	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.205	0.000	0.795	1.000
predicted_SO	0.857	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.857	0.000	-0.857	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.095	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.476	-
predicted_AVG	0.116	-
predicted_BB	0.190	-
predicted_H	0.300	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.134	-
predicted_R	0.143	-
predicted_RBI	0.140	-
predicted_SLG	0.194	-
predicted_SO	0.857	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.127	0.032
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.540	0.064
predicted_AVG	0.116	0.000
predicted_BB	0.115	-0.075
predicted_H	0.375	0.075
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.040	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.134	-0.000
predicted_R	0.253	0.110
predicted_RBI	0.178	0.038
predicted_SLG	0.194	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.908	0.051

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.54), rates preserved: AVG=0.106 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	0.1111	0.1111	0.1667	0.1111	0.0000	0.0556	0.0000	0.2778
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	9.000	0.1111	0.1351	0.2222	0.1111	0.0278	0.0556	0.0278	0.2500
season	0.20	21	-	73.000	10.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	4.000	18.000	0.1370	0.1818	0.2055	0.1370	0.0137	0.0548	0.0548	0.2466

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1440
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5750
predicted_AVG	0.1163
predicted_BB	0.0740
predicted_H	0.4160
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0450
predicted_OBP	0.1336
predicted_R	0.3120
predicted_RBI	0.1980
predicted_SLG	0.1939
predicted_SO	0.9360

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0950	0.1440	0.1268	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4760	3.5750	3.5404	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1160	0.1163	0.1162	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1900	0.0740	0.1146	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3000	0.4160	0.3754	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0450	0.0397	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1340	0.1336	0.1337	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1430	0.3120	0.2529	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1400	0.1980	0.1777	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1940	0.1939	0.1939	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8570	0.9360	0.9083	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.137

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260504_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	666310
playerID	666310
playerName	Bo Naylor
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	CLE
teamID	8

Gavin Williams (668909) · PITCHER · Starter · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 7

All-history rows before 20260505: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.857	0.000	-0.857	1.000
predicted_IP	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	6.057	7.200	-1.057	-2.200
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_SO	7.571	9.000	-4.571	-6.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 5.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	31.333	10.000	21.000	10.000	36.000	5.000	2.8723	0.9894	0.3191	0.6702	0.3191	1.1489	0.1596
last_10	0.35	7	43.333	13.000	25.000	19.000	53.000	6.000	2.7000	1.0154	0.3000	0.5769	0.4385	1.2231	0.1385
season	0.20	7	43.333	13.000	25.000	19.000	53.000	6.000	2.7000	1.0154	0.3000	0.5769	0.4385	1.2231	0.1385

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.3950
predicted_ER	1.9210
predicted_ERA	2.7775
predicted_H	3.8530
predicted_HR	0.9210
predicted_IP	6.2250
predicted_SO	7.4060
predicted_WHIP	1.0037

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	2.3950	1.9068	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.9210	1.5987	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.7775	2.7775	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	3.8530	3.9045	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.9210	0.5987	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.0000	6.2250	5.7962	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	7.4060	5.8639	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0037	1.0037	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.0
H	4
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	3
HR	0
BF	20
Pitches	77

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	1
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	29
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.70
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	9
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	7.2
Pitching_Pitches	95
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	9
Pitching_Strikes	71
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260429_TB@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	668909
playerID	668909
playerName	Gavin Williams
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Cade Smith (671922) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 15

All-history rows before 20260505: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.007	1.100	-0.007	-0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.200	1.000	-1.200	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.333	1.000	5.000	1.000	7.000	0.000	1.6875	1.1250	0.1875	0.9375	0.1875	1.3125	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.333	2.000	10.000	3.000	12.000	0.000	1.7419	1.2581	0.1935	0.9677	0.2903	1.1613	0.0000
season	0.20	15	15.333	6.000	16.000	4.000	18.000	1.000	3.5217	1.3043	0.3913	1.0435	0.2609	1.1739	0.0652

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2490
predicted_ER	0.2410
predicted_ERA	2.0734
predicted_H	1.0140
predicted_HR	0.0140
predicted_IP	1.0460
predicted_SO	1.2890
predicted_WHIP	1.2074

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2490	0.1618	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2410	0.1567	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.0734	2.0734	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0140	0.6591	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0140	0.0091	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0460	1.0299	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.2890	0.8378	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2074	1.2074	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	8

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.52
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	7
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260501_CLE@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	671922
playerID	671922
playerName	Cade Smith
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Erik Sabrowski (681870) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 17

All-history rows before 20260505: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.235	0.000	-0.235
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.671	1.000	0.329
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.412	2.000	0.588

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	0.000	0.0000	0.7500	0.0000	0.5000	0.2500	1.5000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.667	4.000	4.000	4.000	14.000	1.000	4.1538	0.9231	0.4615	0.4615	0.4615	1.6154	0.1154
season	0.20	17	14.667	4.000	7.000	6.000	24.000	1.000	2.4545	0.8864	0.2727	0.4773	0.4091	1.6364	0.0682

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2970
predicted_ER	0.1810
predicted_ERA	1.9447
predicted_H	0.4030
predicted_HR	0.0450
predicted_IP	0.8360
predicted_SO	1.3100
predicted_WHIP	0.8379

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2970	0.1930	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1810	0.1177	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.9447	1.9447	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.4030	0.2620	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0450	0.0292	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.8360	0.8934	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.3100	1.5515	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8379	0.8379	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.45
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	8
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260501_CLE@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	681870
playerID	681870
playerName	Erik Sabrowski
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Hunter Gaddis (683769) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 8

All-history rows before 20260505: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.750	1.000	0.250	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.650	0.100	0.350	0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.875	1.000	-0.875	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.667	4.000	6.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	9.8182	1.9091	1.0909	1.6364	0.2727	0.8182	0.5454
last_10	0.35	7	5.667	5.000	8.000	2.000	7.000	2.000	7.9412	1.7647	0.8823	1.4118	0.3529	1.2353	0.3529
season	0.20	7	5.667	5.000	8.000	2.000	7.000	2.000	7.9412	1.7647	0.8823	1.4118	0.3529	1.2353	0.3529

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2460
predicted_ER	0.7570
predicted_ERA	8.7858
predicted_H	1.1730
predicted_HR	0.3410
predicted_IP	0.7750
predicted_SO	0.8120
predicted_WHIP	1.8297

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2460	0.1599	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.7570	0.8420	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	8.7858	8.7858	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1730	0.7625	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.3410	0.2217	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.7750	0.8538	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.8120	0.5278	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.8297	1.8297	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	9

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	9.53
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260502_CLE@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	683769
playerID	683769
playerName	Hunter Gaddis
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Matt Festa (670036) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team CLE

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 15

All-history rows before 20260505: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.600	1.000	-0.600	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.900	1.200	0.100	-0.200
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.667	1.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	1.9286	0.8571	0.2143	0.4286	0.4286	0.8571	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	11.000	5.000	9.000	3.000	10.000	2.000	4.0909	1.0909	0.4546	0.8182	0.2727	0.9091	0.1818
season	0.20	15	17.000	9.000	15.000	4.000	15.000	3.000	4.7647	1.1176	0.5294	0.8823	0.2353	0.8823	0.1765

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3460
predicted_ER	0.3730
predicted_ERA	3.2526
predicted_H	0.6760
predicted_HR	0.2020
predicted_IP	1.0320
predicted_SO	0.9080
predicted_WHIP	0.9910

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3460	0.2249	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3730	0.2424	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2526	3.2526	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.6760	0.7894	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2020	0.1313	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0320	1.0208	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.9080	1.2902	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9910	0.9910	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	4.76
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	28
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	14
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	670036
playerID	670036
playerName	Matt Festa
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	CLE
teamID	8

Home Team: KC

Salvador Perez (521692) · BATTER · DH · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 34

All-history rows before 20260505: 34

System season_avg: 0.2070

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2074

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.147	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.147	0.000	0.853	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.971	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.971	4.000	0.029	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.260	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.207	0.250	0.043	0.000
predicted_BB	0.118	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.940	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.824	1.000	0.176	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.147	0.000	-0.147	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.310	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.245	0.250	0.005	0.000
predicted_R	0.412	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.412	1.000	-0.412	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.570	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.412	1.000	-0.412	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.404	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.356	0.250	0.144	0.250
predicted_SO	0.853	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.853	0.000	0.147	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.147	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.971	-
predicted_AVG	0.260	-
predicted_BB	0.118	-
predicted_H	0.940	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.310	-
predicted_R	0.412	-
predicted_RBI	0.570	-
predicted_SLG	0.404	-
predicted_SO	0.853	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.236	0.089
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.973	0.002
predicted_AVG	0.260	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.057	-0.061
predicted_H	1.000	0.060
predicted_HBP	0.272	-
predicted_HR	0.094	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.310	0.000
predicted_R	0.615	0.203
predicted_RBI	0.609	0.039
predicted_SLG	0.404	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.826	-0.027

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.97), rates preserved: AVG=0.252 HR/AB=0.024

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=17.0, BvP AVG=0.353)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.971

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	0.000	4.000	0.2632	0.3333	0.3684	0.2632	0.0000	0.1579	0.0000	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	42.000	12.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	8.000	0.000	8.000	0.2857	0.3182	0.4762	0.2857	0.0476	0.1905	0.0000	0.1905
season	0.20	34	-	135.000	28.000	5.000	5.000	14.000	14.000	4.000	29.000	0.2074	0.2448	0.3556	0.2074	0.0370	0.1037	0.0296	0.2148

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2840
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9740
predicted_AVG	0.2599
predicted_BB	0.0240
predicted_H	1.0330
predicted_HBP	0.2720
predicted_HR	0.0960
predicted_OBP	0.3103
predicted_R	0.7240
predicted_RBI	0.6300
predicted_SLG	0.4036
predicted_SO	0.8120

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1470	0.2840	0.2360	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9710	3.9740	3.9730	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2600	0.2599	0.2599	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1180	0.0240	0.0569	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9400	1.0330	1.0004	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.2720	0.2720	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0960	0.0939	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3100	0.3103	0.3102	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4120	0.7240	0.6148	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5700	0.6300	0.6090	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4040	0.4036	0.4037	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8530	0.8120	0.8264	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.207

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260504_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	521692
playerID	521692
playerName	Salvador Perez
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	KC
teamID	12

Isaac Collins (686555) · BATTER · LF · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 26

All-history rows before 20260505: 26

System season_avg: 0.2270

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2273

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.115	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.115	0.000	-0.115	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.385	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.385	2.000	-0.385	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.299	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.227	0.000	-0.227	0.000
predicted_BB	0.577	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.577	2.000	-0.577	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.115	0.000	-0.115	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.769	0.000	-0.769	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.416	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.349	0.500	-0.349	-0.500
predicted_R	0.423	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.423	0.000	-0.423	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.510	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.423	0.000	-0.423	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.432	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.330	0.000	-0.330	0.000
predicted_SO	1.192	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.192	2.000	-1.192	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.115	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.385	-
predicted_AVG	0.299	-
predicted_BB	0.577	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.416	-
predicted_R	0.423	-
predicted_RBI	0.510	-
predicted_SLG	0.432	-
predicted_SO	1.192	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.218	0.103
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.266	-0.119
predicted_AVG	0.299	0.000
predicted_BB	0.660	0.083
predicted_H	0.905	0.095
predicted_HBP	0.051	-
predicted_HR	0.047	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.416	0.000
predicted_R	0.294	-0.129
predicted_RBI	0.571	0.060
predicted_SLG	0.432	0.000
predicted_SO	0.986	-0.206

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.38), rates preserved: AVG=0.268 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	0.3125	0.4000	0.4375	0.3125	0.0000	0.1875	0.1875	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	10.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	4.000	9.000	8.000	0.3226	0.4762	0.4839	0.3226	0.0323	0.2258	0.2903	0.2581
season	0.20	26	-	88.000	20.000	3.000	2.000	11.000	11.000	15.000	31.000	0.2273	0.3491	0.3295	0.2273	0.0227	0.1250	0.1704	0.3523

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2740
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.2020
predicted_AVG	0.2990
predicted_BB	0.7050
predicted_H	0.9570
predicted_HBP	0.0510
predicted_HR	0.0510
predicted_OBP	0.4165
predicted_R	0.2250
predicted_RBI	0.6030
predicted_SLG	0.4321
predicted_SO	0.8750

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1150	0.2740	0.2184	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3850	3.2020	3.2660	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2990	0.2990	0.2990	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5770	0.7050	0.6602	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.9570	0.9055	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0510	0.0510	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0510	0.0471	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4160	0.4165	0.4163	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4230	0.2250	0.2943	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5100	0.6030	0.5705	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4320	0.4321	0.4321	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1920	0.8750	0.9859	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.227

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260504_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	686555
playerID	686555
playerName	Isaac Collins
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	KC
teamID	12

Vinnie Pasquantino (686469) · BATTER · 1B · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 32

All-history rows before 20260505: 32

System season_avg: 0.2000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	1.000	-0.125	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.062	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_AB	3.750	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.750	4.000	0.250	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.324	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.200	0.500	-0.200	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.750	2.000	-0.750	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.393	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.291	0.500	-0.291	-0.500
predicted_R	0.469	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.469	1.000	-0.469	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.560	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.531	1.000	-0.531	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.031	1.000	-0.031	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.574	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.367	0.750	-0.367	-0.750
predicted_SO	0.938	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.938	1.000	-0.938	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.062	-
predicted_AB	3.750	-
predicted_AVG	0.324	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	1.110	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.393	-
predicted_R	0.469	-
predicted_RBI	0.560	-
predicted_SLG	0.574	-
predicted_SO	0.938	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.244	0.119
predicted_3B	0.054	-0.008
predicted_AB	3.812	0.062
predicted_AVG	0.324	0.000
predicted_BB	0.487	-0.013
predicted_H	1.198	0.088
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.180	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.393	-0.000
predicted_R	0.665	0.196
predicted_RBI	0.601	0.041
predicted_SLG	0.574	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.004	0.066

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.314 HR/AB=0.047

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, BvP AVG=0.083)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	8.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	0.4000	0.4286	0.6500	0.4000	0.0500	0.1500	0.0500	0.3000
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	11.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	9.000	8.000	9.000	0.2973	0.4043	0.5946	0.2973	0.0541	0.1892	0.2162	0.2432
season	0.20	32	-	120.000	24.000	4.000	2.000	4.000	17.000	15.000	16.000	30.000	0.2000	0.2908	0.3667	0.2000	0.0333	0.1417	0.1333	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3080
predicted_3B	0.0490
predicted_AB	3.8450
predicted_AVG	0.3241
predicted_BB	0.4800
predicted_H	1.2460
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1850
predicted_OBP	0.3925
predicted_R	0.7700
predicted_RBI	0.6230
predicted_SLG	0.5739
predicted_SO	1.0390

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.3080	0.2440	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0620	0.0490	0.0536	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7500	3.8450	3.8118	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3240	0.3241	0.3241	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.4800	0.4870	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1100	1.2460	1.1984	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1850	0.1797	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3930	0.3925	0.3927	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4690	0.7700	0.6647	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5600	0.6230	0.6010	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5740	0.5739	0.5739	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9380	1.0390	1.0036	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.2

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260504_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	686469
playerID	686469
playerName	Vinnie Pasquantino
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	KC
teamID	12

Michael Massey (686681) · BATTER · 2B · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 19

All-history rows before 20260505: 19

System season_avg: 0.2030

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2034

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.263	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.263	0.000	-0.263	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.105	2.000	2.000	Hitting_AB	3.105	4.000	-1.105	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.145	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.203	0.000	-0.203	0.000
predicted_BB	0.105	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.105	0.000	0.895	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.632	0.000	-0.632	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.173	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.222	0.000	0.111	0.333
predicted_R	0.316	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.316	0.000	-0.316	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.368	0.000	-0.368	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.339	0.000	-0.339	0.000
predicted_SO	0.895	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.895	2.000	-0.895	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.263	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.105	-
predicted_AVG	0.145	-
predicted_BB	0.105	-
predicted_H	0.350	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.173	-
predicted_R	0.316	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.230	-
predicted_SO	0.895	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.194	-0.069
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.304	0.199
predicted_AVG	0.145	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.132	0.027
predicted_H	0.444	0.094
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.040	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.173	-0.000
predicted_R	0.381	0.065
predicted_RBI	0.303	0.063
predicted_SLG	0.230	0.000
predicted_SO	1.009	0.114

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.30), rates preserved: AVG=0.134 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=11.0, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	0.0588	0.1053	0.0588	0.0588	0.0000	0.0588	0.0588	0.3529
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	8.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	5.000	1.000	10.000	0.2222	0.2308	0.3889	0.2222	0.0278	0.1389	0.0278	0.2778
season	0.20	19	-	59.000	12.000	5.000	1.000	7.000	6.000	2.000	17.000	0.2034	0.2222	0.3390	0.2034	0.0169	0.1186	0.0339	0.2881

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1570
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4110
predicted_AVG	0.1449
predicted_BB	0.1470
predicted_H	0.4940
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0450
predicted_OBP	0.1726
predicted_R	0.4160
predicted_RBI	0.3370
predicted_SLG	0.2304
predicted_SO	1.0700

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2630	0.1570	0.1941	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1050	3.4110	3.3039	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1450	0.1449	0.1449	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1050	0.1470	0.1323	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3500	0.4940	0.4436	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0450	0.0397	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1730	0.1726	0.1727	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3160	0.4160	0.3810	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2400	0.3370	0.3031	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2300	0.2304	0.2303	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8950	1.0700	1.0088	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.203

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260503_KC@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	686681
playerID	686681
playerName	Michael Massey
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	KC
teamID	12

Kyle Isbel (664728) · BATTER · CF · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 26

All-history rows before 20260505: 26

System season_avg: 0.2930

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2927

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.154	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.154	3.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.295	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.293	0.667	-0.293	-0.667
predicted_BB	0.192	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.192	1.000	-0.192	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.700	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.923	2.000	-0.923	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.115	0.000	-0.115	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.359	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.356	0.750	-0.356	-0.750
predicted_R	0.423	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.423	0.000	-0.423	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.308	0.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.451	0.667	-0.451	-0.667
predicted_SO	0.808	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.808	0.000	0.192	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.154	-
predicted_AVG	0.295	-
predicted_BB	0.192	-
predicted_H	0.700	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.359	-
predicted_R	0.423	-
predicted_RBI	0.090	-
predicted_SLG	0.410	-
predicted_SO	0.808	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.199	0.045
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.350	0.196
predicted_AVG	0.295	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.175	-0.017
predicted_H	0.907	0.207
predicted_HBP	0.182	-
predicted_HR	0.052	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.359	0.000
predicted_R	0.433	0.010
predicted_RBI	0.118	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.410	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.869	0.061

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.35), rates preserved: AVG=0.271 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=15.0, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.2941	0.3684	0.3529	0.2941	0.0000	0.0000	0.0588	0.2353
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	11.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	11.000	0.2973	0.3500	0.4595	0.2973	0.0270	0.0541	0.0270	0.2973
season	0.20	26	-	82.000	24.000	4.000	3.000	8.000	11.000	5.000	21.000	0.2927	0.3556	0.4512	0.2927	0.0366	0.0976	0.0610	0.2561

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2230
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4560
predicted_AVG	0.2949
predicted_BB	0.1660
predicted_H	1.0190
predicted_HBP	0.1820
predicted_HR	0.0580
predicted_OBP	0.3594
predicted_R	0.4390
predicted_RBI	0.1330
predicted_SLG	0.4099
predicted_SO	0.9020

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1540	0.2230	0.1988	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1540	3.4560	3.3503	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2950	0.2949	0.2949	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1920	0.1660	0.1751	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7000	1.0190	0.9073	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1820	0.1820	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0580	0.0517	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3590	0.3594	0.3593	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4230	0.4390	0.4334	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0900	0.1330	0.1180	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4100	0.4099	0.4099	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8080	0.9020	0.8691	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.293

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260503_KC@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	664728
playerID	664728
playerName	Kyle Isbel
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	KC
teamID	12

Bobby Witt Jr. (677951) · BATTER · SS · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 35

All-history rows before 20260505: 35

System season_avg: 0.2810

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2806

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.257	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.257	0.000	-0.257	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	3.971	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.971	4.000	0.029	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.237	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.281	0.250	-0.281	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.486	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.486	0.000	-0.486	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_H	0.850	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.114	1.000	-1.114	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.086	1.000	-0.086	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.319	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.354	0.250	-0.354	-0.250
predicted_R	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.400	2.000	-0.400	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.457	1.000	-0.457	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.314	1.000	-0.314	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.434	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.424	1.000	-0.424	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.829	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.829	1.000	-0.829	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.257	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.971	-
predicted_AVG	0.237	-
predicted_BB	0.486	-
predicted_H	0.850	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.319	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.434	-
predicted_SO	0.829	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.169	-0.088
predicted_3B	0.036	0.007
predicted_AB	4.136	0.165
predicted_AVG	0.237	0.000
predicted_BB	0.501	0.015
predicted_H	0.949	0.099
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.200	0.020
predicted_OBP	0.319	-0.000
predicted_R	0.649	0.249
predicted_RBI	0.368	0.038
predicted_SLG	0.434	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.992	0.163

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.14), rates preserved: AVG=0.229 HR/AB=0.048

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=24.0, BvP AVG=0.125)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.971

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	7.000	0.1905	0.2917	0.3333	0.1905	0.0476	0.0476	0.1429	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	44.000	12.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	10.000	4.000	8.000	0.2727	0.3333	0.5682	0.2727	0.0682	0.1364	0.0909	0.1818
season	0.20	35	-	139.000	39.000	9.000	1.000	3.000	16.000	14.000	17.000	29.000	0.2806	0.3544	0.4245	0.2806	0.0216	0.1151	0.1223	0.2086

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1220
predicted_3B	0.0400
predicted_AB	4.2240
predicted_AVG	0.2373
predicted_BB	0.5090
predicted_H	1.0020
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.2100
predicted_OBP	0.3188
predicted_R	0.7830
predicted_RBI	0.3890
predicted_SLG	0.4338
predicted_SO	1.0790

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2570	0.1220	0.1693	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0400	0.0362	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9710	4.2240	4.1355	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2370	0.2373	0.2372	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4860	0.5090	0.5010	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8500	1.0020	0.9488	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.2100	0.1995	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3190	0.3188	0.3189	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.7830	0.6490	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.3890	0.3684	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4340	0.4338	0.4339	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8290	1.0790	0.9915	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.281

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260504_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	677951
playerID	677951
playerName	Bobby Witt Jr.
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	KC
teamID	12

Jac Caglianone (695506) · BATTER · RF · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 28

All-history rows before 20260505: 28

System season_avg: 0.2470

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2474

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.179	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.179	0.000	-0.179	0.000
predicted_3B	0.036	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_AB	3.464	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.464	3.000	0.536	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.232	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.247	0.333	0.003	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.393	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.393	1.000	-0.393	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_H	0.660	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.857	1.000	0.143	0.000
predicted_HR	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.107	1.000	-0.107	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.344	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.336	0.500	-0.086	-0.250
predicted_R	0.464	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.464	1.000	0.536	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.214	1.000	0.786	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.534	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.412	1.333	-0.162	-1.083
predicted_SO	1.179	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.179	1.000	0.821	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.179	-
predicted_3B	0.036	-
predicted_AB	3.464	-
predicted_AVG	0.232	-
predicted_BB	0.393	-
predicted_H	0.660	-
predicted_HR	0.260	-
predicted_OBP	0.344	-
predicted_R	0.464	-
predicted_RBI	0.500	-
predicted_SLG	0.534	-
predicted_SO	1.179	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.107	-0.072
predicted_3B	0.017	-0.019
predicted_AB	3.395	-0.069
predicted_AVG	0.232	0.000
predicted_BB	0.502	0.109
predicted_H	0.737	0.077
predicted_HBP	0.014	-
predicted_HR	0.292	0.032
predicted_OBP	0.344	0.000
predicted_R	0.558	0.094
predicted_RBI	0.556	0.056
predicted_SLG	0.534	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.152	-0.027

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.46), rates preserved: AVG=0.213 HR/AB=0.084

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, BvP AVG=0.167)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	5.000	0.2500	0.3684	0.6250	0.2500	0.1250	0.2500	0.1875	0.3125
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	7.000	6.000	13.000	0.2000	0.3171	0.4857	0.2000	0.0857	0.1429	0.1714	0.3714
season	0.20	28	-	97.000	24.000	5.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	13.000	11.000	33.000	0.2474	0.3364	0.4124	0.2474	0.0309	0.0619	0.1134	0.3402

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0680
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.3580
predicted_AVG	0.2320
predicted_BB	0.5610
predicted_H	0.7790
predicted_HBP	0.0140
predicted_HR	0.3100
predicted_OBP	0.3440
predicted_R	0.6080
predicted_RBI	0.5870
predicted_SLG	0.5337
predicted_SO	1.1370

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1790	0.0680	0.1069	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0360	0.0070	0.0171	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4640	3.3580	3.3951	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2320	0.2320	0.2320	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3930	0.5610	0.5022	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6600	0.7790	0.7374	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0140	0.0140	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2600	0.3100	0.2925	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3440	0.3440	0.3440	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4640	0.6080	0.5576	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5000	0.5870	0.5565	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5340	0.5337	0.5338	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1790	1.1370	1.1517	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.247

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260504_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	695506
playerID	695506
playerName	Jac Caglianone
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	KC
teamID	12

Maikel Garcia (672580) · BATTER · 3B · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 32

All-history rows before 20260505: 32

System season_avg: 0.2640

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2636

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.281	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.281	0.000	-0.281	0.000
predicted_3B	0.031	1.000	1.000	Hitting_3B	0.031	0.000	0.969	1.000
predicted_AB	4.031	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.031	4.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.273	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.264	0.000	-0.014	0.250
predicted_BB	0.375	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_H	1.020	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.062	0.000	-0.062	1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.094	0.000	-0.094	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.307	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.322	0.000	-0.072	0.250
predicted_R	0.531	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.531	0.000	0.469	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.406	0.000	0.594	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.492	0.750	0.750	Hitting_SLG	0.419	0.000	0.331	0.750
predicted_SO	0.750	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	0.000	1.250	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.281	-
predicted_3B	0.031	-
predicted_AB	4.031	-
predicted_AVG	0.273	-
predicted_BB	0.375	-
predicted_H	1.020	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.307	-
predicted_R	0.531	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.492	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.377	0.095
predicted_3B	0.038	0.007
predicted_AB	4.200	0.169
predicted_AVG	0.273	0.000
predicted_BB	0.308	-0.067
predicted_H	1.119	0.099
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.135	0.015
predicted_OBP	0.307	0.000
predicted_R	0.544	0.013
predicted_RBI	0.469	0.039
predicted_SLG	0.492	0.000
predicted_SO	0.639	-0.111

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.20), rates preserved: AVG=0.266 HR/AB=0.032

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=20.0, BvP AVG=0.150)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	1.000	1.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 4.031

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	6.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	0.2727	0.2917	0.5455	0.2727	0.0454	0.1364	0.0454	0.0909
last_10	0.35	10	-	43.000	12.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	3.000	7.000	0.2791	0.3191	0.4651	0.2791	0.0233	0.0930	0.0698	0.1628
season	0.20	32	-	129.000	34.000	9.000	1.000	3.000	13.000	17.000	12.000	24.000	0.2636	0.3217	0.4186	0.2636	0.0233	0.1008	0.0930	0.1860

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4280
predicted_3B	0.0420
predicted_AB	4.2910
predicted_AVG	0.2731
predicted_BB	0.2720
predicted_H	1.1720
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1430
predicted_OBP	0.3073
predicted_R	0.5510
predicted_RBI	0.4900
predicted_SLG	0.4920
predicted_SO	0.5800

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2810	0.4280	0.3765	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0310	0.0420	0.0382	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0310	4.2910	4.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2730	0.2731	0.2731	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3750	0.2720	0.3080	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0200	1.1720	1.1188	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1430	0.1349	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3070	0.3073	0.3072	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5310	0.5510	0.5440	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.4900	0.4690	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4920	0.4920	0.4920	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.5800	0.6395	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	1
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.264

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260504_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	672580
playerID	672580
playerName	Maikel Garcia
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	KC
teamID	12

Carter Jensen (695600) · BATTER · C · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 29

All-history rows before 20260505: 29

System season_avg: 0.2380

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2376

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.069	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.069	0.000	-0.069	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.483	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.483	4.000	0.517	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.139	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.238	0.250	0.262	0.250
predicted_BB	0.448	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.448	0.000	-0.448	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.420	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.828	1.000	1.172	1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.207	0.000	-0.207	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.239	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.328	0.250	0.172	0.250
predicted_R	0.483	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.483	1.000	-0.483	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.586	0.000	-0.586	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.207	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.436	0.250	0.064	0.250
predicted_SO	1.103	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.103	1.000	-0.103	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.069	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.483	-
predicted_AVG	0.139	-
predicted_BB	0.448	-
predicted_H	0.420	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.239	-
predicted_R	0.483	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.207	-
predicted_SO	1.103	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.033	-0.036
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.567	0.084
predicted_AVG	0.139	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.468	0.020
predicted_H	0.473	0.053
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.071	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.239	-0.000
predicted_R	0.404	-0.079
predicted_RBI	0.361	0.041
predicted_SLG	0.207	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.271	0.168

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.57), rates preserved: AVG=0.133 HR/AB=0.020

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	0.0556	0.1500	0.0556	0.0556	0.0000	0.0556	0.1111	0.4444
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	7.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	5.000	6.000	12.000	0.1892	0.3023	0.2703	0.1892	0.0270	0.1351	0.1622	0.3243
season	0.20	29	-	101.000	24.000	2.000	6.000	17.000	14.000	13.000	32.000	0.2376	0.3276	0.4356	0.2376	0.0594	0.1683	0.1287	0.3168

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0140
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6120
predicted_AVG	0.1388
predicted_BB	0.4790
predicted_H	0.5010
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.0770
predicted_OBP	0.2388
predicted_R	0.3610
predicted_RBI	0.3830
predicted_SLG	0.2067
predicted_SO	1.3610

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0690	0.0140	0.0333	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4830	3.6120	3.5669	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1390	0.1388	0.1389	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4480	0.4790	0.4682	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4200	0.5010	0.4727	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0770	0.0711	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2390	0.2388	0.2389	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4830	0.3610	0.4037	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.3830	0.3609	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2070	0.2067	0.2068	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1030	1.3610	1.2707	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.238

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260504_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	695600
playerID	695600
playerName	Carter Jensen
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	KC
teamID	12

Stephen Kolek (663568) · PITCHER · Starter · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 0

All-history rows before 20260505: 0

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_ER	-	-	-	-
predicted_IP	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 0

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
last_10	0.35	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
season	0.20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_ER	0.0000
predicted_H	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	4.0000
predicted_SO	0.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.0000	0.7000	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	0.0000	1.0500	model_form_blend
predicted_H	5.0000	0.0000	1.7500	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0000	0.3500	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.0000	4.0000	4.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.0000	0.7000	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	0
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.0
H	5
R	3
ER	3
BB	2
SO	2
HR	1
BF	20
Pitches	77

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

Daniel Lynch IV (663738) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 13

All-history rows before 20260505: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.962	1.100	0.038	-0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.385	3.000	-1.385	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.667	2.000	3.000	0.000	6.000	1.000	3.8571	0.6429	0.4286	0.6429	0.0000	1.2857	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	9.667	2.000	3.000	0.000	12.000	1.000	1.8621	0.3103	0.2069	0.3103	0.0000	1.2414	0.1035
season	0.20	13	13.667	3.000	5.000	3.000	18.000	1.000	1.9756	0.5854	0.2195	0.3659	0.2195	1.3171	0.0732

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.0430
predicted_ER	0.2990
predicted_ERA	2.7826
predicted_H	0.4560
predicted_HR	0.1430
predicted_IP	0.9690
predicted_SO	1.2360
predicted_WHIP	0.5150

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0430	0.0279	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2990	0.1943	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.7826	2.7826	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.4560	0.2964	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1430	0.0929	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9690	0.9798	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.2360	0.8034	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.5150	0.5150	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.98
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_KC@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	663738
playerID	663738
playerName	Daniel Lynch IV
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

John Schreiber (670167) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 14

All-history rows before 20260505: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.429	0.000	2.571	3.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.714	0.200	0.286	0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.357	0.000	-0.357	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	1.8000	1.2000	0.2000	0.8000	0.4000	0.2000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.333	4.000	8.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	4.3200	1.4400	0.4800	0.9600	0.4800	0.3600	0.1200
season	0.20	14	12.333	6.000	11.000	8.000	5.000	2.000	4.3784	1.5405	0.4865	0.8919	0.6486	0.4054	0.1622

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4380
predicted_ER	0.3260
predicted_ERA	3.1977
predicted_H	0.8030
predicted_HR	0.0680
predicted_IP	0.9180
predicted_SO	0.2730
predicted_WHIP	1.3521

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	0.4380	1.3347	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	0.3260	1.2619	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1977	3.1977	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.8030	1.2220	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0680	0.0442	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9180	0.9467	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.2730	0.1775	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3521	1.3521	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	3
ER	3
BB	3
SO	0
HR	0
BF	8
Pitches	35

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.38
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_KC@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	670167
playerID	670167
playerName	John Schreiber
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

Lucas Erceg (668674) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 15

All-history rows before 20260505: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.400	0.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.893	1.000	0.107	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.867	2.000	0.133	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	0.0000	0.8000	0.0000	0.2000	0.6000	1.6000
last_10	0.35	10	9.667	4.000	5.000	8.000	10.000	3.7241	1.3448	0.4138	0.5172	0.8276	1.0345
season	0.20	15	14.333	6.000	10.000	10.000	13.000	3.7674	1.3953	0.4186	0.6977	0.6977	0.9070

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6850
predicted_ER	0.2240
predicted_ERA	2.0569
predicted_H	0.4020
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	0.9790
predicted_SO	1.2380
predicted_WHIP	1.1097

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.6850	0.7953	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.2240	0.4956	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.0569	2.0569	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.4020	0.6113	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9790	0.9863	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.2380	1.1547	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1097	1.1097	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.77
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260502_KC@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	668674
playerID	668674
playerName	Lucas Erceg
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

Matt Strahm (621381) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 14

All-history rows before 20260505: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.357	0.000	-0.357
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.943	1.000	0.057
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	0.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	4.000	0.000	0.0000	0.8000	0.0000	0.4000	0.4000	0.8000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	3.000	7.000	5.000	10.000	2.000	2.7000	1.2000	0.3000	0.7000	0.5000	1.0000	0.2000
season	0.20	14	13.667	5.000	10.000	6.000	14.000	2.000	3.2927	1.1707	0.3659	0.7317	0.4390	1.0244	0.1463

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4410
predicted_ER	0.1770
predicted_ERA	1.6035
predicted_H	0.5690
predicted_HR	0.0990
predicted_IP	0.9950
predicted_SO	0.9110
predicted_WHIP	1.0141

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4410	0.6366	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1770	0.1150	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.6035	1.6035	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.5690	1.0698	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0990	0.0644	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9950	0.9968	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9110	0.5922	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0141	1.0141	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.29
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	7
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_CLE@KC
game_type	full
mlbID	621381
playerID	621381
playerName	Matt Strahm
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

Nick Mears (683232) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team KC

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 13

All-history rows before 20260505: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.808	0.200	0.192	0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.692	0.000	0.308	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	0.0000	0.7500	0.0000	0.0000	0.7500	0.7500
last_10	0.35	10	8.667	3.000	5.000	7.000	6.000	3.1154	1.3846	0.3462	0.5769	0.8077	0.6923
season	0.20	13	11.667	3.000	6.000	7.000	9.000	2.3143	1.1143	0.2571	0.5143	0.6000	0.7714

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6240
predicted_ER	0.1450
predicted_ERA	1.5533
predicted_H	0.2570
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	0.8430
predicted_SO	0.6190
predicted_WHIP	1.0450

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6240	0.4056	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1450	0.0943	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.5533	1.5533	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.2570	0.1671	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.8430	0.8980	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.6190	0.7523	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0450	1.0450	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.31
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260501_KC@SEA
game_type	full
mlbID	683232
playerID	683232
playerName	Nick Mears
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	KC
teamID	12

20260505_LAD@HOU

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "confidence": 0.6368746347998753, "home_win_probability": 0.36312536520012473, "away_win_probability": 0.6368746347998753, "predicted_score_text": "LAD 4 - 3 HOU", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "predicted_score_text": "LAD 6 - 3 HOU", "confidence": 0.6368746347998753, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "LAD 6 - 3 HOU", "winner": "LAD"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "LAD 4 - 3 HOU", "winner": "LAD"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -2, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": -2, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Away Team: LAD

Freddie Freeman (518692) · BATTER · 1B · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 33

All-history rows before 20260505: 33

System season_avg: 0.2760

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2761

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.242	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.242	0.000	0.758	1.000
predicted_3B	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_AB	4.061	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.061	5.000	-0.061	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.274	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.276	0.400	-0.026	-0.150
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.010	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.121	2.000	-0.121	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.297	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.336	0.400	-0.086	-0.150
predicted_R	0.364	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.364	0.000	0.636	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.545	2.000	0.455	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.330	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.418	0.400	0.082	0.100
predicted_SO	0.606	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.606	3.000	1.394	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.242	-
predicted_3B	0.030	-
predicted_AB	4.061	-
predicted_AVG	0.274	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	1.010	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.297	-
predicted_R	0.364	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.330	-
predicted_SO	0.606	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.198	-0.044
predicted_3B	0.015	-0.015
predicted_AB	4.273	0.212
predicted_AVG	0.274	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.209	-0.124
predicted_H	1.133	0.123
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.297	0.000
predicted_R	0.304	-0.060
predicted_RBI	0.487	0.057
predicted_SLG	0.330	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.864	0.258

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.27), rates preserved: AVG=0.265 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 4.061

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	23.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	6.000	0.3043	0.3043	0.3478	0.3044	0.0000	0.1304	0.0000	0.2609
last_10	0.35	10	-	43.000	10.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	3.000	2.000	10.000	0.2326	0.2667	0.2558	0.2326	0.0000	0.0930	0.0465	0.2326
season	0.20	33	-	134.000	37.000	8.000	1.000	3.000	18.000	12.000	11.000	20.000	0.2761	0.3356	0.4179	0.2761	0.0224	0.1343	0.0821	0.1492

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1740
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	4.3870
predicted_AVG	0.2736
predicted_BB	0.1430
predicted_H	1.2000
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.0200
predicted_OBP	0.2974
predicted_R	0.2720
predicted_RBI	0.5180
predicted_SLG	0.3296
predicted_SO	1.0030

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2420	0.1740	0.1978	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0300	0.0070	0.0150	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0610	4.3870	4.2729	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2740	0.2736	0.2737	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.1430	0.2095	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0100	1.2000	1.1335	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0200	0.0200	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2970	0.2974	0.2973	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3640	0.2720	0.3042	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.5180	0.4872	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3300	0.3296	0.3297	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6060	1.0030	0.8640	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.276

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260504_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	518692
playerID	518692
playerName	Freddie Freeman
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	LAD
teamID	14

Dalton Rushing (687221) · BATTER · DH · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 14

All-history rows before 20260505: 14

System season_avg: 0.3540

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3542

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.429	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.429	3.000	0.571	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.271	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.354	0.333	-0.354	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.214	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.214	0.000	0.786	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.860	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.214	1.000	-1.214	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.351	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.426	0.500	-0.226	-0.300
predicted_R	0.857	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.857	0.000	-0.857	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.830	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	1.143	0.000	-1.143	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.497	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.833	0.333	-0.833	-0.333
predicted_SO	1.000	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.429	-
predicted_AVG	0.271	-
predicted_BB	0.214	-
predicted_H	0.860	-
predicted_HR	0.220	-
predicted_OBP	0.351	-
predicted_R	0.857	-
predicted_RBI	0.830	-
predicted_SLG	0.497	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.092	-0.051
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.495	0.066
predicted_AVG	0.271	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.230	0.016
predicted_H	0.922	0.062
predicted_HBP	0.203	-
predicted_HR	0.236	0.016
predicted_OBP	0.351	0.000
predicted_R	0.690	-0.167
predicted_RBI	0.891	0.061
predicted_SLG	0.497	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.081	0.081

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.264 HR/AB=0.067

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	0.2222	0.3000	0.2222	0.2222	0.0000	0.1667	0.0556	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	10.000	1.000	4.000	12.000	7.000	3.000	11.000	0.2857	0.3750	0.6571	0.2857	0.1143	0.3429	0.0857	0.3143
season	0.20	14	-	48.000	17.000	2.000	7.000	16.000	12.000	3.000	14.000	0.3542	0.4259	0.8333	0.3542	0.1458	0.3333	0.0625	0.2917

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0650
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5310
predicted_AVG	0.2708
predicted_BB	0.2380
predicted_H	0.9560
predicted_HBP	0.2030
predicted_HR	0.2440
predicted_OBP	0.3514
predicted_R	0.6000
predicted_RBI	0.9240
predicted_SLG	0.4966
predicted_SO	1.1240

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.0650	0.0923	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4290	3.5310	3.4953	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2710	0.2708	0.2709	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2140	0.2380	0.2296	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8600	0.9560	0.9224	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.2030	0.2030	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2200	0.2440	0.2356	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3510	0.3514	0.3513	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8570	0.6000	0.6900	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8300	0.9240	0.8911	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4970	0.4966	0.4967	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1240	1.0806	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.354

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260503_LAD@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	687221
playerID	687221
playerName	Dalton Rushing
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	LAD
teamID	14

Alex Freeland (690976) · BATTER · 2B · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 27

All-history rows before 20260505: 27

System season_avg: 0.2620

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2619

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.148	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.148	0.000	-0.148	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.111	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.111	4.000	0.889	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.338	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.262	0.750	0.238	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.296	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.296	1.000	-0.296	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.815	3.000	1.185	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.074	1.000	-0.074	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.394	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.323	0.800	0.177	-0.300
predicted_R	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.370	2.000	-0.370	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.259	1.000	-0.259	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.504	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.381	1.500	0.119	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.963	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.963	0.000	-0.963	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.148	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.111	-
predicted_AVG	0.338	-
predicted_BB	0.296	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.394	-
predicted_R	0.370	-
predicted_RBI	0.160	-
predicted_SLG	0.504	-
predicted_SO	0.963	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.118	-0.030
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.112	0.001
predicted_AVG	0.338	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.293	-0.003
predicted_H	0.970	0.150
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.129	0.019
predicted_OBP	0.394	0.000
predicted_R	0.386	0.016
predicted_RBI	0.194	0.034
predicted_SLG	0.504	0.000
predicted_SO	0.741	-0.222

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.11), rates preserved: AVG=0.312 HR/AB=0.041

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	0.3750	0.4118	0.5625	0.3750	0.0625	0.0625	0.0625	0.1250
last_10	0.35	10	-	30.000	10.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	7.000	0.3333	0.4118	0.5000	0.3333	0.0333	0.0667	0.1333	0.2333
season	0.20	27	-	84.000	22.000	4.000	2.000	7.000	10.000	8.000	26.000	0.2619	0.3226	0.3810	0.2619	0.0238	0.0833	0.0952	0.3095

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1020
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.1120
predicted_AVG	0.3378
predicted_BB	0.2920
predicted_H	1.0510
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1390
predicted_OBP	0.3940
predicted_R	0.3940
predicted_RBI	0.2120
predicted_SLG	0.5043
predicted_SO	0.6220

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1480	0.1020	0.1181	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1110	3.1120	3.1117	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3380	0.3378	0.3379	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2960	0.2920	0.2934	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	1.0510	0.9702	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1390	0.1289	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3940	0.3940	0.3940	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3700	0.3940	0.3856	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1600	0.2120	0.1938	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5040	0.5043	0.5042	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9630	0.6220	0.7413	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.262

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.75
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	6
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260504_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	690976
playerID	690976
playerName	Alex Freeland
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	LAD
teamID	14

Miguel Rojas (500743) · BATTER · SS · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 12

All-history rows before 20260505: 12

System season_avg: 0.3510

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3514

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.273	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.364	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.083	4.000	0.917	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.338	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.351	0.000	-0.101	0.250
predicted_BB	0.091	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.083	0.000	-0.083	1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	0.000	0.917	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.348	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.368	0.000	-0.118	0.250
predicted_R	0.273	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	1.667	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.547	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.514	0.000	0.486	1.000
predicted_SO	0.455	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.417	0.000	0.583	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.273	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.364	-
predicted_AVG	0.338	-
predicted_BB	0.091	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.348	-
predicted_R	0.273	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.547	-
predicted_SO	0.455	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.257	-0.016
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.302	-0.062
predicted_AVG	0.338	0.000
predicted_BB	0.066	-0.025
predicted_H	0.995	0.205
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.129	0.029
predicted_OBP	0.348	0.000
predicted_R	0.235	-0.038
predicted_RBI	0.518	0.108
predicted_SLG	0.547	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.307	-0.148

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.36), rates preserved: AVG=0.296 HR/AB=0.038

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.3125	0.3125	0.5625	0.3125	0.0625	0.2500	0.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	12.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.3636	0.3824	0.5455	0.3636	0.0303	0.1212	0.0303	0.1212
season	0.20	11	-	37.000	13.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	0.3514	0.3684	0.5135	0.3513	0.0270	0.1081	0.0270	0.1351

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2490
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.2680
predicted_AVG	0.3382
predicted_BB	0.0520
predicted_H	1.1050
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1440
predicted_OBP	0.3481
predicted_R	0.2140
predicted_RBI	0.5770
predicted_SLG	0.5467
predicted_SO	0.2270

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2730	0.2490	0.2574	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3640	3.2680	3.3016	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3380	0.3382	0.3381	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0910	0.0520	0.0656	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	1.1050	0.9948	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1440	0.1286	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3480	0.3481	0.3481	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2730	0.2140	0.2346	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.5770	0.5185	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5470	0.5467	0.5468	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4550	0.2270	0.3068	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.351

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260501_LAD@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	500743
playerID	500743
playerName	Miguel Rojas
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	LAD
teamID	14

Will Smith (669257) · BATTER · C · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 24

All-history rows before 20260505: 24

System season_avg: 0.2810

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2812

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	2.000	-0.125	-2.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	5.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.308	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.281	0.600	-0.281	-0.600
predicted_BB	0.375	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.125	3.000	-1.125	-3.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.361	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.340	0.600	-0.340	-0.600
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.540	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.420	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.406	1.000	-0.406	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.750	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	2.000	-0.750	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.308	-
predicted_BB	0.375	-
predicted_H	1.130	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.361	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.540	-
predicted_SLG	0.420	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.223	0.098
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.023	0.023
predicted_AVG	0.308	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.366	-0.009
predicted_H	1.202	0.072
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.057	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.361	-0.000
predicted_R	0.389	-0.111
predicted_RBI	0.574	0.034
predicted_SLG	0.420	0.000
predicted_SO	0.776	0.026

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.02), rates preserved: AVG=0.299 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	0.3500	0.4091	0.4500	0.3500	0.0000	0.1000	0.1000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	11.000	2.000	1.000	8.000	4.000	3.000	8.000	0.2683	0.3111	0.3902	0.2683	0.0244	0.1951	0.0732	0.1951
season	0.20	24	-	96.000	27.000	3.000	3.000	16.000	12.000	9.000	18.000	0.2812	0.3396	0.4062	0.2812	0.0312	0.1667	0.0938	0.1875

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2760
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.0350
predicted_AVG	0.3076
predicted_BB	0.3610
predicted_H	1.2410
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0600
predicted_OBP	0.3609
predicted_R	0.3290
predicted_RBI	0.5920
predicted_SLG	0.4203
predicted_SO	0.7900

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.2760	0.2232	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	4.0350	4.0228	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3080	0.3076	0.3077	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3750	0.3610	0.3659	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1300	1.2410	1.2022	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0600	0.0565	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3610	0.3609	0.3609	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.3290	0.3889	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5400	0.5920	0.5738	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4200	0.4203	0.4202	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.7900	0.7760	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.281

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	2
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.6
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260504_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	669257
playerID	669257
playerName	Will Smith
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	LAD
teamID	14

Max Muncy (571970) · BATTER · 3B · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 32

All-history rows before 20260505: 32

System season_avg: 0.2950

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2946

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.156	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.156	0.000	-0.156	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	3.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.310	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.295	0.000	0.205	0.500
predicted_BB	0.594	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.594	2.000	-0.594	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.031	0.000	0.969	2.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.281	0.000	-0.281	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.457	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.397	0.400	0.103	0.100
predicted_R	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.750	0.000	0.250	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.406	0.000	-0.406	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.507	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.580	0.000	-0.080	0.500
predicted_SO	0.969	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.969	2.000	0.031	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.156	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.310	-
predicted_BB	0.594	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.457	-
predicted_R	0.750	-
predicted_RBI	0.370	-
predicted_SLG	0.507	-
predicted_SO	0.969	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.287	0.131
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.263	-0.237
predicted_AVG	0.310	0.000
predicted_BB	0.767	0.173
predicted_H	0.948	0.048
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.084	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.457	-0.000
predicted_R	0.610	-0.140
predicted_RBI	0.391	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.507	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.727	-0.242

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.271 HR/AB=0.024

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	0.3333	0.5000	0.4667	0.3333	0.0000	0.1333	0.3333	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	9.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	8.000	4.000	0.2903	0.4359	0.5161	0.2903	0.0323	0.1290	0.2581	0.1290
season	0.20	32	-	112.000	33.000	5.000	9.000	13.000	24.000	19.000	31.000	0.2946	0.3969	0.5804	0.2946	0.0804	0.1161	0.1696	0.2768

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3580
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.1350
predicted_AVG	0.3105
predicted_BB	0.8600
predicted_H	0.9740
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0860
predicted_OBP	0.4569
predicted_R	0.5350
predicted_RBI	0.4020
predicted_SLG	0.5067
predicted_SO	0.5970

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1560	0.3580	0.2873	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.1350	3.2627	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3100	0.3105	0.3103	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5940	0.8600	0.7669	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	0.9740	0.9481	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0860	0.0839	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4570	0.4569	0.4569	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7500	0.5350	0.6102	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3700	0.4020	0.3908	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5070	0.5067	0.5068	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9690	0.5970	0.7272	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.295

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260504_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	571970
playerID	571970
playerName	Max Muncy
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	LAD
teamID	14

Kyle Tucker (663656) · BATTER · RF · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 33

All-history rows before 20260505: 33

System season_avg: 0.2440

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2443

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.212	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.212	0.000	-0.212	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.970	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.970	5.000	0.030	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.250	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.244	0.400	0.006	-0.150
predicted_BB	0.515	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.515	0.000	-0.515	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.970	2.000	0.030	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.121	1.000	-0.121	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.320	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.327	0.400	-0.077	-0.150
predicted_R	0.727	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.727	1.000	-0.727	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.510	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.515	2.000	-0.515	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.462	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.389	1.000	-0.139	-0.750
predicted_SO	0.909	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.909	1.000	1.091	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.212	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.970	-
predicted_AVG	0.250	-
predicted_BB	0.515	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.320	-
predicted_R	0.727	-
predicted_RBI	0.510	-
predicted_SLG	0.462	-
predicted_SO	0.909	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.311	0.099
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.882	-0.088
predicted_AVG	0.250	0.000
predicted_BB	0.478	-0.037
predicted_H	0.938	0.038
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.146	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.320	-0.000
predicted_R	0.743	0.016
predicted_RBI	0.535	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.462	0.000
predicted_SO	0.665	-0.244

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.97), rates preserved: AVG=0.236 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.970

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	0.2632	0.3182	0.5263	0.2632	0.0526	0.1579	0.1053	0.1053
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	9.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	7.000	5.000	5.000	0.2368	0.3182	0.4211	0.2368	0.0263	0.1316	0.1316	0.1316
season	0.20	33	-	131.000	32.000	7.000	4.000	17.000	24.000	17.000	30.000	0.2443	0.3267	0.3893	0.2443	0.0305	0.1298	0.1298	0.2290

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3640
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8340
predicted_AVG	0.2502
predicted_BB	0.4580
predicted_H	0.9590
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1500
predicted_OBP	0.3199
predicted_R	0.7510
predicted_RBI	0.5480
predicted_SLG	0.4621
predicted_SO	0.5340

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2120	0.3640	0.3108	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9700	3.8340	3.8816	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2500	0.2502	0.2501	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5150	0.4580	0.4779	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	0.9590	0.9384	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1500	0.1465	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3200	0.3199	0.3199	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7270	0.7510	0.7426	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5100	0.5480	0.5347	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4620	0.4621	0.4621	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9090	0.5340	0.6653	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.244

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260504_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	663656
playerID	663656
playerName	Kyle Tucker
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	LAD
teamID	14

Teoscar Hernández (606192) · BATTER · LF · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 31

All-history rows before 20260505: 31

System season_avg: 0.2480

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2478

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.129	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.129	0.000	-0.129	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.645	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.645	5.000	0.355	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.248	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.248	0.200	-0.248	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.419	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.419	0.000	-0.419	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.780	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.903	1.000	-0.903	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.129	0.000	-0.129	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.353	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.323	0.200	-0.323	-0.200
predicted_R	0.548	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.548	0.000	-0.548	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.548	0.000	-0.548	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.276	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.389	0.200	-0.389	-0.200
predicted_SO	1.129	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.129	2.000	-1.129	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.129	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.645	-
predicted_AVG	0.248	-
predicted_BB	0.419	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.353	-
predicted_R	0.548	-
predicted_RBI	0.220	-
predicted_SLG	0.276	-
predicted_SO	1.129	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.062	-0.067
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.657	0.012
predicted_AVG	0.248	0.000
predicted_BB	0.537	0.118
predicted_H	0.864	0.084
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.024	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.353	0.000
predicted_R	0.415	-0.133
predicted_RBI	0.244	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.276	0.000
predicted_SO	1.006	-0.123

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.66), rates preserved: AVG=0.236 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	0.2632	0.3636	0.2632	0.2632	0.0000	0.0000	0.1579	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	8.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	4.000	7.000	10.000	0.2286	0.3571	0.2286	0.2286	0.0000	0.1143	0.2000	0.2857
season	0.20	31	-	113.000	28.000	4.000	4.000	17.000	17.000	13.000	35.000	0.2478	0.3228	0.3894	0.2478	0.0354	0.1504	0.1150	0.3097

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0260
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6640
predicted_AVG	0.2480
predicted_BB	0.6010
predicted_H	0.9090
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0260
predicted_OBP	0.3532
predicted_R	0.3440
predicted_RBI	0.2570
predicted_SLG	0.2763
predicted_SO	0.9400

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1290	0.0260	0.0620	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6450	3.6640	3.6574	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2480	0.2480	0.2480	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4190	0.6010	0.5373	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	0.9090	0.8639	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0260	0.0239	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3530	0.3532	0.3531	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5480	0.3440	0.4154	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2200	0.2570	0.2440	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2760	0.2763	0.2762	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1290	0.9400	1.0061	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.248

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260504_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	606192
playerID	606192
playerName	Teoscar Hernández
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	LAD
teamID	14

Andy Pages (681624) · BATTER · CF · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 34

All-history rows before 20260505: 34

System season_avg: 0.3150

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3150

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.235	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.235	0.000	0.765	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.735	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.735	5.000	-0.735	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.265	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.315	0.200	0.018	0.133
predicted_BB	0.265	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.265	0.000	0.735	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.176	1.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.147	0.000	-0.147	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.300	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.360	0.200	0.140	0.300
predicted_R	0.559	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.559	1.000	0.441	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.430	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.794	0.000	0.206	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.147	0.000	-0.147	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.360	0.667	0.667	Hitting_SLG	0.496	0.200	0.171	0.467
predicted_SO	0.912	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.912	1.000	-0.912	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.235	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.735	-
predicted_AVG	0.265	-
predicted_BB	0.265	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.300	-
predicted_R	0.559	-
predicted_RBI	0.430	-
predicted_SLG	0.360	-
predicted_SO	0.912	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.263	0.028
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.850	0.115
predicted_AVG	0.265	0.000
predicted_BB	0.232	-0.033
predicted_H	0.955	0.155
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.027	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.300	0.000
predicted_R	0.581	0.021
predicted_RBI	0.510	0.080
predicted_SLG	0.360	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.969	0.057

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.248 HR/AB=0.007

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	0.2500	0.2857	0.3000	0.2500	0.0000	0.1000	0.0500	0.3000
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	10.000	4.000	0.000	6.000	6.000	2.000	8.000	0.2564	0.2857	0.3590	0.2564	0.0000	0.1538	0.0513	0.2051
season	0.20	34	-	127.000	40.000	8.000	5.000	27.000	19.000	9.000	31.000	0.3150	0.3597	0.4961	0.3150	0.0394	0.2126	0.0709	0.2441

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2780
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9120
predicted_AVG	0.2652
predicted_BB	0.2140
predicted_H	1.0380
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0310
predicted_OBP	0.3005
predicted_R	0.5920
predicted_RBI	0.5530
predicted_SLG	0.3599
predicted_SO	1.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2350	0.2780	0.2630	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7350	3.9120	3.8500	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2650	0.2652	0.2651	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2650	0.2140	0.2319	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	1.0380	0.9547	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0310	0.0272	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3000	0.3005	0.3003	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5590	0.5920	0.5805	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4300	0.5530	0.5100	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3600	0.3599	0.3599	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9120	1.0000	0.9692	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.315

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260504_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	681624
playerID	681624
playerName	Andy Pages
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	LAD
teamID	14

Shohei Ohtani (660271) · PITCHER · Starter · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 5

All-history rows before 20260505: 5

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.400	1.000	0.600	0.000
predicted_IP	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	6.000	6.000	-2.000	-2.000
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_SO	6.800	9.000	-3.800	-6.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	30.000	2.000	17.000	9.000	34.000	0.6000	0.8667	0.0667	0.5667	0.3000	1.1333
last_10	0.35	5	30.000	2.000	17.000	9.000	34.000	0.6000	0.8667	0.0667	0.5667	0.3000	1.1333
season	0.20	5	30.000	2.000	17.000	9.000	34.000	0.6000	0.8667	0.0667	0.5667	0.3000	1.1333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.8000
predicted_ER	0.4000
predicted_ERA	0.6000
predicted_H	3.4000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	6.0000
predicted_SO	6.8000
predicted_WHIP	0.8667

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	5.0000	1.8000	2.9200	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.4000	0.6100	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.6000	0.6000	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	3.4000	3.2600	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.0000	6.0000	5.3000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	6.8000	5.4700	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8667	0.8667	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.0
H	3
R	1
ER	1
BB	5
SO	3
HR	0
BF	20
Pitches	93

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	27
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	0.60
Pitching_Flyouts	5
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	104
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	9
Pitching_Strikes	67
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260428_MIA@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	660271
playerID	660271
playerName	Shohei Ohtani
pos	TWP
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Alex Vesia (681911) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 14

All-history rows before 20260505: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.750	1.000	0.250	0.000
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.071	1.000	1.929	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.333	2.000	2.000	3.000	5.000	5.4000	1.5000	0.6000	0.6000	0.9000	1.5000
last_10	0.35	10	7.667	2.000	2.000	5.000	14.000	2.3478	0.9130	0.2609	0.2609	0.6522	1.8261
season	0.20	14	11.667	2.000	4.000	6.000	15.000	1.5429	0.8571	0.1714	0.3429	0.5143	1.2857

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5410
predicted_ER	0.2910
predicted_ERA	3.5603
predicted_H	0.3160
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	0.7350
predicted_SO	1.1550
predicted_WHIP	1.1660

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5410	0.3517	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2910	0.1891	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5603	3.5603	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.3160	0.5554	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.7350	0.8277	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	1.1550	1.8007	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1660	1.1660	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	3
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.54
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260502_LAD@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	681911
playerID	681911
playerName	Alex Vesia
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Blake Treinen (595014) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 13

All-history rows before 20260505: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.308	0.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.662	1.000	0.338	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.923	3.000	1.077	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.333	1.000	5.000	0.000	7.000	1.000	2.0769	1.1538	0.2308	1.1539	0.0000	1.6154	0.2308
last_10	0.35	10	8.000	1.000	6.000	3.000	10.000	1.000	1.1250	1.1250	0.1250	0.7500	0.3750	1.2500	0.1250
season	0.20	12	10.000	1.000	7.000	3.000	12.000	1.000	0.9000	1.0000	0.1000	0.7000	0.3000	1.2000	0.1000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1600
predicted_ER	0.1400
predicted_ERA	1.5084
predicted_H	0.7710
predicted_HR	0.1400
predicted_IP	0.8370
predicted_SO	1.1750
predicted_WHIP	1.1130

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1600	0.1040	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1400	0.0910	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.5084	1.5084	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7710	0.5011	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1400	0.0910	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.8370	0.8941	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.1750	1.4638	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1130	1.1130	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.60
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	595014
playerID	595014
playerName	Blake Treinen
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Jack Dreyer (676263) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 15

All-history rows before 20260505: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.913	1.000	0.087	0.000
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.267	2.000	1.733	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	8.000	0.000	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000	0.8000	0.2000	1.6000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.000	3.000	7.000	2.000	15.000	1.000	2.4545	0.8182	0.2727	0.6364	0.1818	1.3636	0.0909
season	0.20	15	15.333	5.000	11.000	5.000	19.000	1.000	2.9348	1.0435	0.3261	0.7174	0.3261	1.2391	0.0652

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2270
predicted_ER	0.1670
predicted_ERA	1.4460
predicted_H	0.7550
predicted_HR	0.0470
predicted_IP	1.0390
predicted_SO	1.5020
predicted_WHIP	0.9451

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2270	0.1476	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1670	0.1086	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.4460	1.4460	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7550	0.4908	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0470	0.0306	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0390	1.0253	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	1.5020	2.0263	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9451	0.9451	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	3
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.93
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	676263
playerID	676263
playerName	Jack Dreyer
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Tanner Scott (656945) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 16

All-history rows before 20260505: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.188	0.000	1.812	2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.838	1.000	0.162	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.938	2.000	-0.938	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.667	2.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	1.000	3.8571	0.8571	0.4286	0.6429	0.2143	1.2857	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	9.667	2.000	4.000	2.000	9.000	1.000	1.8621	0.6207	0.2069	0.4138	0.2069	0.9310	0.1035
season	0.20	16	14.333	3.000	8.000	2.000	15.000	2.000	1.8837	0.6977	0.2093	0.5581	0.1395	1.0465	0.1395

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1840
predicted_ER	0.2880
predicted_ERA	2.7642
predicted_H	0.5120
predicted_HR	0.1510
predicted_IP	0.9370
predicted_SO	1.0440
predicted_WHIP	0.7425

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.1840	0.4696	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.2880	0.8872	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.7642	2.7642	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.5120	0.6828	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1510	0.0982	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9370	0.9591	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0440	0.6786	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.7425	0.7425	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.88
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_LAD@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	656945
playerID	656945
playerName	Tanner Scott
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Will Klein (694361) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team LAD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 10

All-history rows before 20260505: 10

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.350	1.200	-0.350	-0.200
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.500	0.000	-0.500	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	7.000	4.000	9.000	2.000	6.000	5.1429	1.5714	0.5714	1.2857	0.2857	0.8571
last_10	0.35	10	14.667	5.000	15.000	5.000	15.000	3.0682	1.3636	0.3409	1.0227	0.3409	1.0227
season	0.20	10	14.667	5.000	15.000	5.000	15.000	3.0682	1.3636	0.3409	1.0227	0.3409	1.0227

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4540
predicted_ER	0.6390
predicted_ERA	4.0018
predicted_H	1.6390
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.4370
predicted_SO	1.3620
predicted_WHIP	1.4571

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4540	0.2951	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6390	0.4153	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0018	4.0018	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.6390	1.0654	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.4370	1.2841	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.3620	1.2353	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4571	1.4571	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.07
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	25
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_LAD@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	694361
playerID	694361
playerName	Will Klein
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	LAD
teamID	14

Home Team: HOU

Zach Cole (805904) · BATTER · CF · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 1

All-history rows before 20260505: 1

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	4.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.250	-0.250	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.800	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.250	0.250	-0.250	-0.250
predicted_R	1.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.800	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	1.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_SO	2.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	2.000	2.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.250	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.800	-
predicted_OBP	0.250	-
predicted_R	1.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.800	-
predicted_SLG	1.000	-
predicted_SO	2.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.250	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.930	0.130
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.930	0.130
predicted_OBP	0.250	0.000
predicted_R	1.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.930	0.130
predicted_SLG	1.000	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.233 HR/AB=0.233

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	-1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	1	-	4.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.2500	0.2500	1.0000	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500	0.5000
last_10	0.35	1	-	4.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.2500	0.2500	1.0000	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500	0.5000
season	0.20	1	-	4.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.2500	0.2500	1.0000	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500	0.5000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.0000
predicted_AVG	0.2500
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_H	1.0000
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	1.0000
predicted_OBP	0.2500
predicted_R	1.0000
predicted_RBI	1.0000
predicted_SLG	1.0000
predicted_SO	2.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	4.0000	4.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	1.0000	0.9300	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.8000	1.0000	0.9300	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500	model_form_blend
predicted_R	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8000	1.0000	0.9300	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	2.0000	2.0000	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260504_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	805904
playerID	805904
playerName	Zach Cole
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	HOU
teamID	11

Isaac Paredes (670623) · BATTER · 1B · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 30

All-history rows before 20260505: 30

System season_avg: 0.2700

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2703

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.700	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.700	3.000	-0.700	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.340	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.270	0.333	0.063	0.000
predicted_BB	0.433	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.433	1.000	0.567	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.150	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.435	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.367	0.500	0.133	0.000
predicted_R	0.533	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.533	1.000	-0.533	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.460	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.405	0.333	-0.072	0.000
predicted_SO	0.667	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.700	-
predicted_AVG	0.340	-
predicted_BB	0.433	-
predicted_H	1.150	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.435	-
predicted_R	0.533	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.460	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.259	0.058
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.752	0.052
predicted_AVG	0.340	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.555	0.122
predicted_H	1.237	0.087
predicted_HBP	0.027	-
predicted_HR	0.053	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.435	0.000
predicted_R	0.590	0.057
predicted_RBI	0.353	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.460	0.000
predicted_SO	0.587	-0.080

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.75), rates preserved: AVG=0.330 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	0.3684	0.4783	0.4737	0.3684	0.0000	0.0526	0.2105	0.1579
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	13.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	7.000	5.000	4.000	0.3421	0.4186	0.4737	0.3421	0.0263	0.1316	0.1316	0.1053
season	0.20	30	-	111.000	30.000	6.000	3.000	15.000	16.000	13.000	20.000	0.2703	0.3672	0.4054	0.2703	0.0270	0.1351	0.1171	0.1802

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2900
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7800
predicted_AVG	0.3396
predicted_BB	0.6210
predicted_H	1.2840
predicted_HBP	0.0270
predicted_HR	0.0550
predicted_OBP	0.4352
predicted_R	0.6210
predicted_RBI	0.3660
predicted_SLG	0.4600
predicted_SO	0.5440

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.2900	0.2585	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7000	3.7800	3.7520	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3400	0.3396	0.3397	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4330	0.6210	0.5552	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1500	1.2840	1.2371	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0270	0.0270	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0550	0.0533	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4350	0.4352	0.4351	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5330	0.6210	0.5902	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.3660	0.3534	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4600	0.4600	0.4600	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.5440	0.5871	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.27

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260504_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	670623
playerID	670623
playerName	Isaac Paredes
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	HOU
teamID	11

Christian Walker (572233) · BATTER · DH · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 35

All-history rows before 20260505: 35

System season_avg: 0.3100

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3101

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.257	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.257	0.000	0.743	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.686	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.686	4.000	-0.686	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.395	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.310	0.000	0.023	0.333
predicted_BB	0.400	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.400	0.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.320	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.143	0.000	-0.143	1.000
predicted_HR	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.229	0.000	-0.229	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.460	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.384	0.000	0.116	0.500
predicted_R	0.629	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.629	0.000	0.371	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.610	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.743	0.000	1.257	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.616	0.667	0.667	Hitting_SLG	0.566	0.000	0.101	0.667
predicted_SO	0.771	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.771	2.000	0.229	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.257	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.686	-
predicted_AVG	0.395	-
predicted_BB	0.400	-
predicted_H	1.320	-
predicted_HR	0.210	-
predicted_OBP	0.460	-
predicted_R	0.629	-
predicted_RBI	0.610	-
predicted_SLG	0.616	-
predicted_SO	0.771	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.169	-0.088
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.768	0.082
predicted_AVG	0.395	0.000
predicted_BB	0.356	-0.044
predicted_H	1.441	0.121
predicted_HBP	0.136	-
predicted_HR	0.230	0.020
predicted_OBP	0.460	0.000
predicted_R	0.614	-0.015
predicted_RBI	0.667	0.057
predicted_SLG	0.616	0.000
predicted_SO	0.831	0.060

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.382 HR/AB=0.061

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	2.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	8.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	0.4211	0.5000	0.5789	0.4210	0.0526	0.1579	0.1053	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	16.000	2.000	3.000	8.000	6.000	2.000	10.000	0.4103	0.4524	0.6923	0.4103	0.0769	0.2051	0.0513	0.2564
season	0.20	35	-	129.000	40.000	9.000	8.000	26.000	22.000	14.000	27.000	0.3101	0.3836	0.5659	0.3101	0.0620	0.2016	0.1085	0.2093

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1220
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8120
predicted_AVG	0.3951
predicted_BB	0.3320
predicted_H	1.5060
predicted_HBP	0.1360
predicted_HR	0.2400
predicted_OBP	0.4601
predicted_R	0.6060
predicted_RBI	0.6980
predicted_SLG	0.6160
predicted_SO	0.8630

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2570	0.1220	0.1693	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6860	3.8120	3.7679	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3950	0.3951	0.3951	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4000	0.3320	0.3558	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.3200	1.5060	1.4409	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1360	0.1360	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2100	0.2400	0.2295	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4600	0.4601	0.4601	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6290	0.6060	0.6140	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6100	0.6980	0.6672	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6160	0.6160	0.6160	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7710	0.8630	0.8308	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.31

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260504_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	572233
playerID	572233
playerName	Christian Walker
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	HOU
teamID	11

Christian Vázquez (543877) · BATTER · C · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 14

All-history rows before 20260505: 14

System season_avg: 0.3400

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3400

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.571	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.571	3.000	0.429	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.340	0.000	-0.340	0.000
predicted_BB	0.357	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.357	0.000	-0.357	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.214	0.000	-1.214	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.337	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_R	0.429	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.786	0.000	-0.786	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.391	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.540	0.000	-0.540	0.000
predicted_SO	0.643	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.643	1.000	1.357	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.286	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.571	-
predicted_AVG	0.300	-
predicted_BB	0.357	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.337	-
predicted_R	0.429	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.391	-
predicted_SO	0.643	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.186	-0.100
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.599	0.028
predicted_AVG	0.300	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.269	-0.088
predicted_H	0.998	0.158
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.060	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.337	-0.000
predicted_R	0.303	-0.126
predicted_RBI	0.430	0.070
predicted_SLG	0.391	0.000
predicted_SO	0.590	-0.053

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.60), rates preserved: AVG=0.277 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.2632	0.2632	0.2632	0.2632	0.0000	0.0526	0.0000	0.1053
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	11.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	4.000	4.000	7.000	0.3235	0.3947	0.4706	0.3235	0.0294	0.1765	0.1177	0.2059
season	0.20	14	-	50.000	17.000	4.000	2.000	11.000	6.000	5.000	9.000	0.3400	0.4000	0.5400	0.3400	0.0400	0.2200	0.1000	0.1800

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1320
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6140
predicted_AVG	0.2997
predicted_BB	0.2210
predicted_H	1.0830
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0660
predicted_OBP	0.3366
predicted_R	0.2360
predicted_RBI	0.4680
predicted_SLG	0.3911
predicted_SO	0.5620

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2860	0.1320	0.1859	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5710	3.6140	3.5989	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3000	0.2997	0.2998	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3570	0.2210	0.2686	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	1.0830	0.9979	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0660	0.0604	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3370	0.3366	0.3367	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4290	0.2360	0.3035	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.4680	0.4302	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3910	0.3911	0.3911	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6430	0.5620	0.5904	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.34

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260504_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	543877
playerID	543877
playerName	Christian Vázquez
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	HOU
teamID	11

Cam Smith (701358) · BATTER · RF · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 33

All-history rows before 20260505: 33

System season_avg: 0.2270

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2269

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.606	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.606	4.000	-0.606	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.238	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.227	0.250	-0.227	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.424	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.424	0.000	0.576	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.710	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.818	1.000	-0.818	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.298	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.316	0.250	-0.066	0.000
predicted_R	0.455	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.455	0.000	-0.455	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.560	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.455	0.000	-0.455	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.386	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.353	0.250	-0.353	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.182	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.182	2.000	-0.182	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.606	-
predicted_AVG	0.238	-
predicted_BB	0.424	-
predicted_H	0.710	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.298	-
predicted_R	0.455	-
predicted_RBI	0.560	-
predicted_SLG	0.386	-
predicted_SO	1.182	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.168	-0.014
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.824	0.218
predicted_AVG	0.238	0.000
predicted_BB	0.334	-0.090
predicted_H	0.860	0.150
predicted_HBP	0.050	-
predicted_HR	0.130	0.020
predicted_OBP	0.298	0.000
predicted_R	0.381	-0.074
predicted_RBI	0.676	0.116
predicted_SLG	0.386	0.000
predicted_SO	1.391	0.209

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.225 HR/AB=0.034

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	0.2857	0.3182	0.4762	0.2857	0.0476	0.2381	0.0476	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	2.000	3.000	18.000	0.1842	0.2619	0.2895	0.1842	0.0263	0.1579	0.0790	0.4737
season	0.20	33	-	119.000	27.000	6.000	3.000	15.000	15.000	14.000	39.000	0.2269	0.3162	0.3529	0.2269	0.0252	0.1260	0.1177	0.3277

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1610
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9410
predicted_AVG	0.2384
predicted_BB	0.2860
predicted_H	0.9400
predicted_HBP	0.0500
predicted_HR	0.1410
predicted_OBP	0.2981
predicted_R	0.3410
predicted_RBI	0.7390
predicted_SLG	0.3862
predicted_SO	1.5030

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.1610	0.1683	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6060	3.9410	3.8237	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2380	0.2384	0.2383	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4240	0.2860	0.3343	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7100	0.9400	0.8595	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0500	0.0500	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1410	0.1301	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2980	0.2981	0.2981	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4550	0.3410	0.3809	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5600	0.7390	0.6764	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3860	0.3862	0.3861	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1820	1.5030	1.3906	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.227

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260504_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	701358
playerID	701358
playerName	Cam Smith
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	HOU
teamID	11

Nick Allen (669397) · BATTER · 3B · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 4

All-history rows before 20260505: 4

System season_avg: 0.2730

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2727

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.750	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.750	3.000	0.250	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.273	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.273	0.667	-0.273	-0.667
predicted_BB	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.570	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.750	2.000	-0.750	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.385	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.385	0.667	-0.135	-0.417
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.364	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.364	1.000	-0.364	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.750	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	1.000	1.250	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.750	-
predicted_AVG	0.273	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.570	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.385	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.000	-
predicted_SLG	0.364	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.750	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.273	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.500	0.000
predicted_H	0.687	0.117
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.385	-0.000
predicted_R	0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.364	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.750	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.75), rates preserved: AVG=0.250 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 4

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	4	-	11.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.2727	0.3846	0.3636	0.2727	0.1818	0.2727
last_10	0.35	4	-	11.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.2727	0.3846	0.3636	0.2727	0.1818	0.2727
season	0.20	4	-	11.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.2727	0.3846	0.3636	0.2727	0.1818	0.2727

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2500
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.7500
predicted_AVG	0.2727
predicted_BB	0.5000
predicted_H	0.7500
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.3846
predicted_R	0.5000
predicted_RBI	0.0000
predicted_SLG	0.3636
predicted_SO	0.7500

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.7500	2.7500	2.7500	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2730	0.2727	0.2728	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5700	0.7500	0.6870	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3850	0.3846	0.3847	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3640	0.3636	0.3637	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.7500	0.7500	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	4
Season rows before report date	4
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	4
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.273

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260415_COL@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	669397
playerID	669397
playerName	Nick Allen
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	HOU
teamID	11

Carlos Correa (621043) · BATTER · SS · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 32

All-history rows before 20260505: 32

System season_avg: 0.2790

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2787

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.812	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.812	4.000	0.188	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.276	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.279	0.000	0.221	0.500
predicted_BB	0.562	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.562	0.000	0.438	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.970	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.062	0.000	0.938	2.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.094	0.000	-0.094	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.370	0.600	0.600	Hitting_OBP	0.369	0.000	0.231	0.600
predicted_R	0.688	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.688	0.000	0.312	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.473	0.750	0.750	Hitting_SLG	0.418	0.000	0.332	0.750
predicted_SO	0.812	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.812	3.000	0.188	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.812	-
predicted_AVG	0.276	-
predicted_BB	0.562	-
predicted_H	0.970	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.370	-
predicted_R	0.688	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.473	-
predicted_SO	0.812	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.249	-0.001
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.922	0.111
predicted_AVG	0.276	0.000
predicted_BB	0.583	0.021
predicted_H	1.055	0.085
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.172	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.370	-0.000
predicted_R	0.588	-0.100
predicted_RBI	0.369	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.473	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.966	0.154

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.92), rates preserved: AVG=0.269 HR/AB=0.044

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=11.0, BvP AVG=0.182)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.812

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	0.2857	0.3750	0.4762	0.2857	0.0476	0.0952	0.1429	0.2857
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	10.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	6.000	10.000	0.2632	0.3636	0.5000	0.2632	0.0526	0.0790	0.1579	0.2632
season	0.20	32	-	122.000	34.000	8.000	3.000	16.000	22.000	18.000	26.000	0.2787	0.3688	0.4180	0.2787	0.0246	0.1311	0.1475	0.2131

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2480
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9820
predicted_AVG	0.2764
predicted_BB	0.5940
predicted_H	1.1010
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1780
predicted_OBP	0.3698
predicted_R	0.5340
predicted_RBI	0.3850
predicted_SLG	0.4729
predicted_SO	1.0490

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.2480	0.2487	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8120	3.9820	3.9225	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2760	0.2764	0.2763	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5620	0.5940	0.5828	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9700	1.1010	1.0552	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1780	0.1717	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3700	0.3698	0.3699	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6880	0.5340	0.5879	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.3850	0.3693	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4730	0.4729	0.4729	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8120	1.0490	0.9660	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.279

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260504_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	621043
playerID	621043
playerName	Carlos Correa
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	HOU
teamID	11

Jose Altuve (514888) · BATTER · 2B · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 33

All-history rows before 20260505: 33

System season_avg: 0.2480

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2481

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.273	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.909	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.909	4.000	0.091	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.223	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.248	0.250	-0.248	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.515	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.515	0.000	-0.515	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_H	0.760	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.970	1.000	-0.970	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.271	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.336	0.250	-0.336	-0.250
predicted_R	0.667	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.273	1.000	-0.273	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.323	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.388	0.250	-0.388	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.818	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.818	2.000	1.182	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.273	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.909	-
predicted_AVG	0.223	-
predicted_BB	0.515	-
predicted_H	0.760	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.271	-
predicted_R	0.667	-
predicted_RBI	0.150	-
predicted_SLG	0.323	-
predicted_SO	0.818	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.316	0.043
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.957	0.048
predicted_AVG	0.223	0.000
predicted_BB	0.352	-0.163
predicted_H	0.844	0.084
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.019	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.271	-0.000
predicted_R	0.610	-0.057
predicted_RBI	0.170	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.323	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.750	-0.068

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.96), rates preserved: AVG=0.213 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=28.0, BvP AVG=0.250)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.909

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	0.2500	0.2857	0.3500	0.2500	0.0000	0.0500	0.0500	0.1500
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	7.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	8.000	0.1750	0.2143	0.2500	0.1750	0.0000	0.0250	0.0500	0.2000
season	0.20	33	-	129.000	32.000	9.000	3.000	9.000	22.000	17.000	27.000	0.2481	0.3356	0.3876	0.2481	0.0233	0.0698	0.1318	0.2093

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3390
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9820
predicted_AVG	0.2234
predicted_BB	0.2640
predicted_H	0.8890
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0190
predicted_OBP	0.2707
predicted_R	0.5790
predicted_RBI	0.1800
predicted_SLG	0.3225
predicted_SO	0.7140

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2730	0.3390	0.3159	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9090	3.9820	3.9565	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2230	0.2234	0.2233	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5150	0.2640	0.3518	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7600	0.8890	0.8438	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0190	0.0193	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2710	0.2707	0.2708	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6670	0.5790	0.6098	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1500	0.1800	0.1695	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3230	0.3225	0.3227	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8180	0.7140	0.7504	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.248

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260504_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	514888
playerID	514888
playerName	Jose Altuve
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	HOU
teamID	11

Yordan Alvarez (670541) · BATTER · LF · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 36

All-history rows before 20260505: 36

System season_avg: 0.3330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3333

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.750	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.750	3.000	0.250	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.300	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.333	0.667	-0.083	-0.417
predicted_BB	0.611	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.611	0.000	0.389	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.020	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.250	2.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.384	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.438	0.750	-0.038	-0.350
predicted_R	0.722	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.722	1.000	0.278	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.240	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.750	0.000	0.250	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.028	0.000	-0.028	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.466	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.667	0.667	-0.417	-0.417
predicted_SO	0.528	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.528	1.000	1.472	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.750	-
predicted_AVG	0.300	-
predicted_BB	0.611	-
predicted_H	1.020	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.384	-
predicted_R	0.722	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.466	-
predicted_SO	0.528	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.145	-0.105
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.938	0.188
predicted_AVG	0.300	0.000
predicted_BB	0.481	-0.130
predicted_H	1.145	0.125
predicted_HBP	0.146	-
predicted_HR	0.182	0.022
predicted_OBP	0.384	-0.000
predicted_R	0.717	-0.005
predicted_RBI	0.269	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.466	0.000
predicted_SO	0.780	0.252

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.94), rates preserved: AVG=0.291 HR/AB=0.046

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=15.0, BvP AVG=0.333)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 36

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	6.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	6.000	0.2857	0.3750	0.4286	0.2857	0.0476	0.0476	0.0952	0.2857
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	12.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	3.000	8.000	0.3000	0.3636	0.4000	0.3000	0.0250	0.0250	0.0750	0.2000
season	0.20	36	-	135.000	45.000	9.000	12.000	27.000	26.000	22.000	19.000	0.3333	0.4383	0.6667	0.3333	0.0889	0.2000	0.1630	0.1407

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0890
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.0400
predicted_AVG	0.3002
predicted_BB	0.4110
predicted_H	1.2130
predicted_HBP	0.1460
predicted_HR	0.1940
predicted_OBP	0.3837
predicted_R	0.7140
predicted_RBI	0.2840
predicted_SLG	0.4662
predicted_SO	0.9160

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.0890	0.1453	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7500	4.0400	3.9385	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3000	0.3002	0.3001	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6110	0.4110	0.4810	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0200	1.2130	1.1455	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1460	0.1460	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1940	0.1821	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3840	0.3837	0.3838	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7220	0.7140	0.7168	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2400	0.2840	0.2686	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4660	0.4662	0.4661	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5280	0.9160	0.7802	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	36
Season rows before report date	36
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	36
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.333

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260504_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	670541
playerID	670541
playerName	Yordan Alvarez
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	HOU
teamID	11

Peter Lambert (663567) · PITCHER · Starter · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 3

All-history rows before 20260505: 3

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.000	2.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_IP	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.033	4.100	-0.033	0.900
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_SO	6.333	3.000	-2.333	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 3

Reference playing time: 5.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	3	15.333	6.000	12.000	7.000	19.000	3.5217	1.2391	0.3913	0.7826	0.4565	1.2391
last_10	0.35	3	15.333	6.000	12.000	7.000	19.000	3.5217	1.2391	0.3913	0.7826	0.4565	1.2391
season	0.20	3	15.333	6.000	12.000	7.000	19.000	3.5217	1.2391	0.3913	0.7826	0.4565	1.2391

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.3330
predicted_ER	2.0000
predicted_ERA	3.5217
predicted_H	4.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	5.1110
predicted_SO	6.3330
predicted_WHIP	1.2391

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	2.3330	2.2165	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.0000	2.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5217	3.5217	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	4.0000	4.3500	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.0000	5.1110	5.0722	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	6.3330	5.5165	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2391	1.2391	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	3
Season rows before report date	3
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	3
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.0
H	5
R	2
ER	2
BB	2
SO	4
HR	0
BF	22
Pitches	92

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	18
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	3.52
Pitching_Flyouts	6
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.1
Pitching_Pitches	91
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	52
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260430_HOU@BAL
game_type	full
mlbID	663567
playerID	663567
playerName	Peter Lambert
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

Bryan Abreu (650556) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 13

All-history rows before 20260505: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.877	1.000	0.123	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.538	3.000	-0.538	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	4.000	6.000	4.000	8.000	1.000	6.0000	1.6667	0.6667	1.0000	0.6667	1.3333	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	8.000	11.000	12.000	14.000	2.000	7.2000	2.3000	0.8000	1.1000	1.2000	1.4000	0.2000
season	0.20	13	12.333	13.000	13.000	16.000	20.000	4.000	9.4865	2.3514	1.0540	1.0540	1.2973	1.6216	0.3243

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.0580
predicted_ER	0.8540
predicted_ERA	7.1173
predicted_H	1.1290
predicted_HR	0.2270
predicted_IP	1.0800
predicted_SO	1.5270
predicted_WHIP	2.0253

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	1.0580	0.6877	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.8540	1.2551	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	7.1173	7.1173	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.1290	1.4339	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.2270	0.4975	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0800	1.0520	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.5270	1.3425	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	2.0253	2.0253	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	1
HR	1
BF	5
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	9.49
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	650556
playerID	650556
playerName	Bryan Abreu
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

Bryan King (687911) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 12

All-history rows before 20260505: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.417	0.000	-0.417	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.983	1.000	0.017	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.083	0.000	-0.083	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.667	4.000	6.000	2.000	2.000	6.3529	1.4118	0.7059	1.0588	0.3529	0.3529
last_10	0.35	10	11.667	4.000	11.000	4.000	10.000	3.0857	1.2857	0.3429	0.9429	0.3429	0.8571
season	0.20	12	13.667	5.000	13.000	5.000	13.000	3.2927	1.3171	0.3659	0.9512	0.3659	0.9512

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4030
predicted_ER	0.5850
predicted_ERA	4.5973
predicted_H	1.1420
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.1460
predicted_SO	0.7440
predicted_WHIP	1.3487

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4030	0.2620	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5850	0.3802	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.5973	4.5973	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1420	0.7423	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.1460	1.0949	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.7440	0.8336	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3487	1.3487	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.29
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	6
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	4
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260502_HOU@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	687911
playerID	687911
playerName	Bryan King
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

Enyel De Los Santos (660853) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 13

All-history rows before 20260505: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.615	0.000	-0.615
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.969	1.000	0.031
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.923	1.000	0.077

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	4.000	8.000	2.000	5.000	0.000	6.0000	1.6667	0.6667	1.3333	0.3333	0.8333	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	7.000	11.000	3.000	9.000	0.000	6.3000	1.4000	0.7000	1.1000	0.3000	0.9000	0.0000
season	0.20	13	14.000	8.000	15.000	4.000	12.000	1.000	5.1429	1.3571	0.5714	1.0714	0.2857	0.8571	0.0714

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3450
predicted_ER	0.7290
predicted_ERA	5.9336
predicted_H	1.3260
predicted_HR	0.0160
predicted_IP	1.1050
predicted_SO	0.9520
predicted_WHIP	1.5114

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3450	0.2242	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.7290	0.4738	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.9336	5.9336	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.3260	0.8619	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0160	0.0104	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.1050	1.0682	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9520	0.9688	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5114	1.5114	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.14
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_HOU@BOS
game_type	full
mlbID	660853
playerID	660853
playerName	Enyel De Los Santos
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

Steven Okert (595345) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team HOU

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 18

All-history rows before 20260505: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.444	1.000	-0.444	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.650	0.200	0.350	0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.611	1.000	0.389	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.667	4.000	8.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	9.8182	2.7273	1.0909	2.1818	0.5454	0.5454	0.2727
last_10	0.35	10	7.333	4.000	12.000	3.000	4.000	1.000	4.9091	2.0455	0.5454	1.6364	0.4091	0.5454	0.1364
season	0.20	18	15.667	8.000	15.000	7.000	11.000	2.000	4.5957	1.4043	0.5106	0.9575	0.4468	0.7021	0.1277

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3640
predicted_ER	0.5960
predicted_ERA	7.0555
predicted_H	1.3280
predicted_HR	0.1490
predicted_IP	0.7610
predicted_SO	0.4390
predicted_WHIP	2.2241

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3640	0.2366	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5960	0.3874	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	7.0555	7.0555	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.3280	1.2132	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1490	0.0969	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.7610	0.8447	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.4390	0.6353	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	2.2241	2.2241	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	4.60
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_LAD@HOU
game_type	full
mlbID	595345
playerID	595345
playerName	Steven Okert
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	HOU
teamID	11

20260505_MIL@STL

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "confidence": 0.564402247529153, "home_win_probability": 0.564402247529153, "away_win_probability": 0.435597752470847, "predicted_score_text": "MIL 4 - 6 STL", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "predicted_score_text": "MIL 5 - 6 STL", "confidence": 0.564402247529153, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "MIL 5 - 6 STL", "winner": "STL"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "MIL 4 - 6 STL", "winner": "STL"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -1, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": -1, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Away Team: MIL

Garrett Mitchell (669003) · BATTER · DH · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 26

All-history rows before 20260505: 26

System season_avg: 0.2310

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2308

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.231	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_3B	0.038	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	5.000	0.500	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.183	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.231	0.000	0.269	0.500
predicted_BB	0.692	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.692	0.000	-0.692	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_H	0.590	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.808	0.000	1.192	2.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.294	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.364	0.000	0.136	0.500
predicted_R	0.538	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.538	0.000	0.462	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.808	0.000	-0.808	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.192	0.000	-0.192	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.246	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.352	0.000	0.148	0.500
predicted_SO	1.423	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.423	1.000	-0.423	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.231	-
predicted_3B	0.038	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.183	-
predicted_BB	0.692	-
predicted_H	0.590	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.294	-
predicted_R	0.538	-
predicted_RBI	0.300	-
predicted_SLG	0.246	-
predicted_SO	1.423	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.217	-0.014
predicted_3B	0.019	-0.019
predicted_AB	3.832	0.332
predicted_AVG	0.183	0.000
predicted_BB	0.625	-0.067
predicted_H	0.684	0.094
predicted_HBP	0.046	-
predicted_HR	0.009	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.294	0.000
predicted_R	0.602	0.064
predicted_RBI	0.351	0.051
predicted_SLG	0.246	0.000
predicted_SO	1.371	-0.052

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.179 HR/AB=0.002

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	7.000	0.1818	0.2800	0.2273	0.1818	0.0000	0.0454	0.1364	0.3182
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	5.000	12.000	0.1579	0.2727	0.2105	0.1579	0.0000	0.0790	0.1316	0.3158
season	0.20	26	-	91.000	21.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	21.000	14.000	18.000	37.000	0.2308	0.3636	0.3516	0.2308	0.0110	0.2308	0.1978	0.4066

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2090
predicted_3B	0.0090
predicted_AB	4.0100
predicted_AVG	0.1832
predicted_BB	0.5890
predicted_H	0.7350
predicted_HBP	0.0460
predicted_HR	0.0090
predicted_OBP	0.2942
predicted_R	0.6360
predicted_RBI	0.3780
predicted_SLG	0.2463
predicted_SO	1.3430

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2310	0.2090	0.2167	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0380	0.0090	0.0192	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	4.0100	3.8315	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1830	0.1832	0.1831	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6920	0.5890	0.6250	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5900	0.7350	0.6843	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0460	0.0460	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0090	0.0094	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2940	0.2942	0.2941	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5380	0.6360	0.6017	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3000	0.3780	0.3507	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2460	0.2463	0.2462	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4230	1.3430	1.3710	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.231

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260504_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	669003
playerID	669003
playerName	Garrett Mitchell
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	MIL
teamID	16

Joey Ortiz (687401) · BATTER · C · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 22

All-history rows before 20260505: 22

System season_avg: 0.1860

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1857

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.182	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.182	2.000	-0.182	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.157	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.186	0.000	0.148	0.333
predicted_BB	0.364	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.364	0.000	0.636	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_H	0.450	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.591	0.000	0.409	1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.268	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.266	0.000	0.234	0.500
predicted_R	0.409	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.409	0.000	-0.409	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.640	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.364	1.000	-0.364	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.157	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.186	0.000	0.148	0.333
predicted_SO	0.727	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.727	1.000	1.273	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.182	-
predicted_AVG	0.157	-
predicted_BB	0.364	-
predicted_H	0.450	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.268	-
predicted_R	0.409	-
predicted_RBI	0.640	-
predicted_SLG	0.157	-
predicted_SO	0.727	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.915	-0.267
predicted_AVG	0.157	0.000
predicted_BB	0.435	0.072
predicted_H	0.441	-0.009
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.268	0.000
predicted_R	0.298	-0.111
predicted_RBI	0.623	-0.017
predicted_SLG	0.157	0.000
predicted_SO	0.579	-0.148

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.18), rates preserved: AVG=0.139 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	0.1429	0.2353	0.1429	0.1429	0.2857	0.1429	0.1429
last_10	0.35	10	-	25.000	4.000	5.000	2.000	6.000	5.000	0.1600	0.3125	0.1600	0.1600	0.2000	0.2400	0.2000
season	0.20	22	-	70.000	13.000	8.000	9.000	8.000	16.000	0.1857	0.2658	0.1857	0.1857	0.1143	0.1143	0.2286

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.7710
predicted_AVG	0.1574
predicted_BB	0.4740
predicted_H	0.4360
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.2684
predicted_R	0.2380
predicted_RBI	0.6140
predicted_SLG	0.1574
predicted_SO	0.4990

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1820	2.7710	2.9148	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1570	0.1574	0.1573	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3640	0.4740	0.4355	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4500	0.4360	0.4409	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2680	0.2684	0.2683	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4090	0.2380	0.2978	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6400	0.6140	0.6231	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1570	0.1574	0.1573	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7270	0.4990	0.5788	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.186

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260503_MIL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	687401
playerID	687401
playerName	Joey Ortiz
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	MIL
teamID	16

William Contreras (661388) · BATTER · 1B · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 31

All-history rows before 20260505: 31

System season_avg: 0.2970

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2969

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.226	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.226	0.000	0.774	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.129	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.129	5.000	-0.129	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.370	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.297	0.200	0.203	0.300
predicted_BB	0.452	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.452	0.000	-0.452	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.330	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.226	1.000	0.774	1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.097	0.000	0.903	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.420	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.366	0.200	0.134	0.300
predicted_R	0.645	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.645	0.000	0.355	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.910	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.742	0.000	1.258	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.509	1.500	1.500	Hitting_SLG	0.422	0.200	1.078	1.300
predicted_SO	0.484	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.484	0.000	0.516	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.226	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.129	-
predicted_AVG	0.370	-
predicted_BB	0.452	-
predicted_H	1.330	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.420	-
predicted_R	0.645	-
predicted_RBI	0.910	-
predicted_SLG	0.509	-
predicted_SO	0.484	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.190	-0.036
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.247	0.118
predicted_AVG	0.370	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.403	-0.049
predicted_H	1.502	0.172
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.135	0.015
predicted_OBP	0.420	0.000
predicted_R	0.782	0.137
predicted_RBI	1.026	0.116
predicted_SLG	0.509	0.000
predicted_SO	0.360	-0.123

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.25), rates preserved: AVG=0.354 HR/AB=0.032

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, BvP AVG=0.250)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 4.129

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	0.4545	0.5000	0.6364	0.4546	0.0454	0.3182	0.0909	0.0454
last_10	0.35	10	-	43.000	13.000	1.000	1.000	9.000	8.000	3.000	3.000	0.3023	0.3478	0.3953	0.3023	0.0233	0.2093	0.0698	0.0698
season	0.20	31	-	128.000	38.000	7.000	3.000	23.000	20.000	14.000	15.000	0.2969	0.3662	0.4219	0.2969	0.0234	0.1797	0.1094	0.1172

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1700
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.3110
predicted_AVG	0.3697
predicted_BB	0.3760
predicted_H	1.5940
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1430
predicted_OBP	0.4200
predicted_R	0.8560
predicted_RBI	1.0880
predicted_SLG	0.5091
predicted_SO	0.2940

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2260	0.1700	0.1896	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1290	4.3110	4.2473	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3700	0.3697	0.3698	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4520	0.3760	0.4026	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.3300	1.5940	1.5016	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1430	0.1349	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4200	0.4200	0.4200	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6450	0.8560	0.7822	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.9100	1.0880	1.0257	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5090	0.5091	0.5091	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4840	0.2940	0.3605	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.297

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260504_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	661388
playerID	661388
playerName	William Contreras
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	MIL
teamID	16

David Hamilton (666152) · BATTER · 2B · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 27

All-history rows before 20260505: 27

System season_avg: 0.2410

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2410

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.074	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.074	0.000	-0.074	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.074	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.074	4.000	0.926	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.252	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.241	0.000	-0.241	0.000
predicted_BB	0.444	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.074	0.000	-0.074	0.000
predicted_H	0.640	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.741	0.000	-0.741	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.304	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.344	0.000	-0.344	0.000
predicted_R	0.556	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.556	0.000	-0.556	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.259	0.000	-0.259	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.259	0.000	-0.259	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.301	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.265	0.000	-0.265	0.000
predicted_SO	0.704	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.704	2.000	0.296	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.074	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.074	-
predicted_AVG	0.252	-
predicted_BB	0.444	-
predicted_H	0.640	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.304	-
predicted_R	0.556	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.301	-
predicted_SO	0.704	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.138	0.064
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.338	0.264
predicted_AVG	0.252	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.323	-0.121
predicted_H	0.793	0.153
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.304	-0.000
predicted_R	0.533	-0.023
predicted_RBI	0.336	0.066
predicted_SLG	0.301	0.000
predicted_SO	0.834	0.130

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.34), rates preserved: AVG=0.237 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	0.2632	0.3000	0.3158	0.2632	0.1053	0.0526	0.2632
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	8.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	2.000	9.000	0.2424	0.2857	0.3030	0.2424	0.1212	0.0606	0.2727
season	0.20	27	-	83.000	20.000	2.000	7.000	15.000	12.000	19.000	0.2410	0.3438	0.2651	0.2410	0.0843	0.1446	0.2289

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1730
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4800
predicted_AVG	0.2515
predicted_BB	0.2570
predicted_H	0.8750
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.3038
predicted_R	0.5210
predicted_RBI	0.3710
predicted_SLG	0.3012
predicted_SO	0.9040

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0740	0.1730	0.1384	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0740	3.4800	3.3379	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2520	0.2515	0.2517	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4440	0.2570	0.3225	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6400	0.8750	0.7927	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3040	0.3038	0.3039	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5560	0.5210	0.5333	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.3710	0.3357	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3010	0.3012	0.3011	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7040	0.9040	0.8340	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.241

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260504_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	666152
playerID	666152
playerName	David Hamilton
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	MIL
teamID	16

Brice Turang (668930) · BATTER · 3B · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 31

All-history rows before 20260505: 31

System season_avg: 0.3040

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3043

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.258	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.258	0.000	0.742	1.000
predicted_3B	0.032	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_AB	3.710	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.710	5.000	0.290	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.388	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.304	0.600	-0.054	-0.350
predicted_BB	0.871	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.871	0.000	-0.871	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_H	1.320	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.129	3.000	-0.129	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.161	1.000	-0.161	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.505	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.434	0.600	-0.184	-0.350
predicted_R	0.903	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.903	1.000	0.097	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.580	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.710	2.000	0.290	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.226	0.000	-0.226	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.606	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.522	1.200	-0.022	-0.700
predicted_SO	0.968	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.968	1.000	-0.968	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.258	-
predicted_3B	0.032	-
predicted_AB	3.710	-
predicted_AVG	0.388	-
predicted_BB	0.871	-
predicted_H	1.320	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.505	-
predicted_R	0.903	-
predicted_RBI	0.580	-
predicted_SLG	0.606	-
predicted_SO	0.968	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.309	0.051
predicted_3B	0.016	-0.016
predicted_AB	3.734	0.024
predicted_AVG	0.388	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.892	0.021
predicted_H	1.406	0.086
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.151	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.505	-0.000
predicted_R	0.965	0.062
predicted_RBI	0.619	0.039
predicted_SLG	0.606	0.000
predicted_SO	0.789	-0.179

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.376 HR/AB=0.040

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	2.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=13.0, BvP AVG=0.385)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	2.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	9.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	5.000	2.000	0.4737	0.5833	0.7368	0.4737	0.0526	0.2105	0.2632	0.1053
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	12.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	8.000	8.000	9.000	0.3243	0.4444	0.4865	0.3243	0.0270	0.1081	0.2162	0.2432
season	0.20	31	-	115.000	35.000	8.000	1.000	5.000	22.000	28.000	27.000	30.000	0.3043	0.4336	0.5217	0.3044	0.0435	0.1913	0.2348	0.2609

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3360
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.7470
predicted_AVG	0.3875
predicted_BB	0.9030
predicted_H	1.4520
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1570
predicted_OBP	0.5047
predicted_R	0.9980
predicted_RBI	0.6400
predicted_SLG	0.6062
predicted_SO	0.6920

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2580	0.3360	0.3087	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0320	0.0070	0.0158	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7100	3.7470	3.7340	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3880	0.3875	0.3877	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8710	0.9030	0.8918	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.3200	1.4520	1.4058	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1570	0.1511	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.5050	0.5047	0.5048	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.9030	0.9980	0.9647	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5800	0.6400	0.6190	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6060	0.6062	0.6061	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9680	0.6920	0.7886	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.304

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.6
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	6
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260504_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	668930
playerID	668930
playerName	Brice Turang
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	MIL
teamID	16

Brandon Lockridge (663604) · BATTER · SS · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 22

All-history rows before 20260505: 22

System season_avg: 0.2890

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2895

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.136	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.136	1.000	-0.136	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.455	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.455	4.000	0.545	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.327	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.289	0.500	-0.039	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.455	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.455	0.000	-0.455	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.880	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.417	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.372	0.500	-0.122	-0.250
predicted_R	0.273	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.273	1.000	-0.273	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.480	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.409	0.000	-0.409	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.381	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.329	0.750	-0.079	-0.500
predicted_SO	1.136	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.136	1.000	0.864	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.136	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.455	-
predicted_AVG	0.327	-
predicted_BB	0.455	-
predicted_H	0.880	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.417	-
predicted_R	0.273	-
predicted_RBI	0.480	-
predicted_SLG	0.381	-
predicted_SO	1.136	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.169	0.033
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.449	-0.006
predicted_AVG	0.327	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.508	0.053
predicted_H	1.040	0.160
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.417	-0.000
predicted_R	0.376	0.103
predicted_RBI	0.570	0.090
predicted_SLG	0.381	0.000
predicted_SO	1.155	0.019

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.46), rates preserved: AVG=0.301 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	6.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	5.000	0.3529	0.4500	0.4118	0.3529	0.2353	0.1765	0.2941
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	11.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	5.000	14.000	0.3143	0.4000	0.3714	0.3143	0.1429	0.1429	0.4000
season	0.20	22	-	76.000	22.000	3.000	9.000	6.000	10.000	25.000	0.2895	0.3721	0.3289	0.2895	0.1184	0.1316	0.3290

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1870
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4460
predicted_AVG	0.3267
predicted_BB	0.5370
predicted_H	1.1260
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.4169
predicted_R	0.4310
predicted_RBI	0.6190
predicted_SLG	0.3811
predicted_SO	1.1650

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1360	0.1870	0.1692	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4550	3.4460	3.4491	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3270	0.3267	0.3268	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4550	0.5370	0.5083	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8800	1.1260	1.0399	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4170	0.4169	0.4169	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2730	0.4310	0.3757	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4800	0.6190	0.5703	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3810	0.3811	0.3811	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1360	1.1650	1.1549	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.289

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260503_MIL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	663604
playerID	663604
playerName	Brandon Lockridge
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	MIL
teamID	16

Jake Bauers (641343) · BATTER · LF · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 28

All-history rows before 20260505: 28

System season_avg: 0.2550

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2547

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.179	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.179	1.000	-0.179	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.786	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.786	2.000	0.214	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.225	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.255	0.500	-0.255	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.464	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.464	1.000	-0.464	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.964	1.000	-0.964	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.179	0.000	-0.179	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.361	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.336	0.667	-0.336	-0.667
predicted_R	0.714	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.714	1.000	-0.714	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.643	0.000	-0.643	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.107	0.000	-0.107	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.327	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.443	1.000	-0.443	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.893	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.893	1.000	0.107	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.179	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.786	-
predicted_AVG	0.225	-
predicted_BB	0.464	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.361	-
predicted_R	0.714	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.327	-
predicted_SO	0.893	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.234	0.055
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.653	-0.133
predicted_AVG	0.225	0.000
predicted_BB	0.660	0.196
predicted_H	0.793	0.023
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.033	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.361	0.000
predicted_R	0.761	0.047
predicted_RBI	0.348	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.327	0.000
predicted_SO	0.973	0.080

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.210 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	5.000	0.1765	0.3636	0.2353	0.1765	0.0000	0.0588	0.2941	0.2941
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	10.000	4.000	0.000	4.000	8.000	6.000	11.000	0.2703	0.3721	0.3784	0.2703	0.0000	0.1081	0.1622	0.2973
season	0.20	28	-	106.000	27.000	5.000	5.000	18.000	20.000	13.000	25.000	0.2547	0.3361	0.4434	0.2547	0.0472	0.1698	0.1226	0.2359

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2640
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5820
predicted_AVG	0.2250
predicted_BB	0.7650
predicted_H	0.8060
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0340
predicted_OBP	0.3611
predicted_R	0.7860
predicted_RBI	0.3520
predicted_SLG	0.3270
predicted_SO	1.0160

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1790	0.2640	0.2343	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7860	3.5820	3.6534	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2250	0.2250	0.2250	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4640	0.7650	0.6597	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.8060	0.7934	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0340	0.0326	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3610	0.3611	0.3611	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7140	0.7860	0.7608	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.3520	0.3478	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3270	0.3270	0.3270	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8930	1.0160	0.9729	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.255

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260504_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	641343
playerID	641343
playerName	Jake Bauers
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	MIL
teamID	16

Tyler Black (672012) · BATTER · CF · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 5

All-history rows before 20260505: 5

System season_avg: 0.4500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.4500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.800	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.800	2.000	-0.800	-2.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	3.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.450	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.450	0.667	-0.450	-0.667
predicted_BB	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.360	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.800	2.000	-1.800	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.476	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.476	0.667	-0.476	-0.667
predicted_R	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_RBI	1.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	1.400	1.000	-1.400	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.650	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.650	1.333	-0.650	-1.333
predicted_SO	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.800	1.000	0.200	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.800	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.450	-
predicted_BB	0.200	-
predicted_H	1.360	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.476	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	1.050	-
predicted_SLG	0.650	-
predicted_SO	0.800	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.800	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.450	0.000
predicted_BB	0.200	0.000
predicted_H	1.646	0.286
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.476	0.000
predicted_R	0.400	0.000
predicted_RBI	1.278	0.228
predicted_SLG	0.650	0.000
predicted_SO	0.800	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.411 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	2.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	9.000	4.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.4500	0.4762	0.6500	0.4500	0.3500	0.0500	0.2000
last_10	0.35	5	-	20.000	9.000	4.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.4500	0.4762	0.6500	0.4500	0.3500	0.0500	0.2000
season	0.20	5	-	20.000	9.000	4.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.4500	0.4762	0.6500	0.4500	0.3500	0.0500	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.8000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.0000
predicted_AVG	0.4500
predicted_BB	0.2000
predicted_H	1.8000
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.4762
predicted_R	0.4000
predicted_RBI	1.4000
predicted_SLG	0.6500
predicted_SO	0.8000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.8000	0.8000	0.8000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	4.0000	4.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.4500	0.4500	0.4500	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.3600	1.8000	1.6460	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4760	0.4762	0.4761	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.4000	0.4000	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	1.0500	1.4000	1.2775	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6500	0.6500	0.6500	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8000	0.8000	0.8000	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.45

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	2
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260501_MIL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	672012
playerID	672012
playerName	Tyler Black
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	MIL
teamID	16

Sal Frelick (686217) · BATTER · RF · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 29

All-history rows before 20260505: 29

System season_avg: 0.2000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.071	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.069	0.000	-0.069	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.571	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.448	3.000	0.552	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.220	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.200	0.333	0.050	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.464	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.517	1.000	-0.517	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_H	0.610	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.690	1.000	0.310	0.000
predicted_HR	0.140	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.103	0.000	0.897	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.302	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.305	0.500	-0.055	-0.250
predicted_R	0.536	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.517	0.000	0.483	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.190	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.310	0.000	0.690	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.376	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.310	0.333	0.690	0.667
predicted_SO	0.464	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.448	0.000	-0.448	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.071	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.571	-
predicted_AVG	0.220	-
predicted_BB	0.464	-
predicted_H	0.610	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.302	-
predicted_R	0.536	-
predicted_RBI	0.190	-
predicted_SLG	0.376	-
predicted_SO	0.464	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.034	-0.037
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.576	0.005
predicted_AVG	0.220	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.431	-0.033
predicted_H	0.724	0.114
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.167	0.027
predicted_OBP	0.302	-0.000
predicted_R	0.565	0.029
predicted_RBI	0.228	0.038
predicted_SLG	0.376	0.000
predicted_SO	0.247	-0.217

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.58), rates preserved: AVG=0.203 HR/AB=0.047

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=9.0, BvP AVG=0.111)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	0.2105	0.2857	0.3684	0.2105	0.0526	0.0526	0.1053	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	8.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	8.000	4.000	1.000	0.2424	0.3243	0.4242	0.2424	0.0606	0.0909	0.1212	0.0303
season	0.20	28	-	100.000	20.000	2.000	3.000	7.000	15.000	13.000	13.000	0.2000	0.2982	0.3100	0.2000	0.0300	0.0700	0.1300	0.1300

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0140
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5790
predicted_AVG	0.2196
predicted_BB	0.4140
predicted_H	0.7860
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.1820
predicted_OBP	0.3017
predicted_R	0.5810
predicted_RBI	0.2490
predicted_SLG	0.3763
predicted_SO	0.1310

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0710	0.0140	0.0339	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5710	3.5790	3.5762	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2200	0.2196	0.2197	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4640	0.4140	0.4315	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6100	0.7860	0.7244	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1820	0.1673	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3020	0.3017	0.3018	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5360	0.5810	0.5653	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1900	0.2490	0.2283	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3760	0.3763	0.3762	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4640	0.1310	0.2475	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.2

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	1
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260504_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	686217
playerID	686217
playerName	Sal Frelick
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	MIL
teamID	16

Brandon Sproat (687075) · PITCHER · Starter · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 6

All-history rows before 20260505: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	6.000	6.000	-	Pitching_ER	3.333	4.000	2.667	2.000
predicted_IP	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.133	4.100	-1.133	-1.100
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_SO	4.167	5.000	-1.167	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 3.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	23.667	13.000	22.000	11.000	22.000	4.000	4.9437	1.3944	0.5493	0.9296	0.4648	0.9296	0.1690
last_10	0.35	6	26.667	20.000	28.000	15.000	25.000	7.000	6.7500	1.6125	0.7500	1.0500	0.5625	0.9375	0.2625
season	0.20	6	26.667	20.000	28.000	15.000	25.000	7.000	6.7500	1.6125	0.7500	1.0500	0.5625	0.9375	0.2625

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.3720
predicted_ER	3.0180
predicted_ERA	5.9372
predicted_H	4.5550
predicted_HR	1.0080
predicted_IP	4.5740
predicted_SO	4.2720
predicted_WHIP	1.5144

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	2.3720	1.5418	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	6.0000	3.0180	4.0617	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.9372	5.9372	form_only
predicted_H	9.0000	4.5550	6.1107	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	1.0080	1.0052	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.0000	4.5740	4.0231	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	4.2720	3.8268	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5144	1.5144	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.0
H	9
R	6
ER	6
BB	0
SO	3
HR	1
BF	18
Pitches	65

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	20
Pitching_ER	4
Pitching_ERA	6.75
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	6
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.1
Pitching_Pitches	82
Pitching_R	4
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	52
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260429_ARI@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	687075
playerID	687075
playerName	Brandon Sproat
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

Aaron Ashby (676879) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 16

All-history rows before 20260505: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.375	1.000	-0.375	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.138	2.200	-0.138	-1.200
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	2.125	4.000	-0.125	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	7.000	1.000	4.000	7.000	12.000	0.000	1.2857	1.5714	0.1429	0.5714	1.0000	1.7143	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	12.333	3.000	10.000	8.000	22.000	0.000	2.1892	1.4595	0.2432	0.8108	0.6486	1.7838	0.0000
season	0.20	16	21.000	6.000	17.000	13.000	34.000	1.000	2.5714	1.4286	0.2857	0.8095	0.6190	1.6191	0.0476

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.0600
predicted_ER	0.2740
predicted_ERA	1.8591
predicted_H	0.9310
predicted_HR	0.0130
predicted_IP	1.3240
predicted_SO	2.2770
predicted_WHIP	1.5037

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	1.0600	0.6890	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2740	0.1781	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.8591	1.8591	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9310	0.6052	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0130	0.0084	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.3240	1.2106	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	2.2770	2.1801	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5037	1.5037	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	12
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.57
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.2
Pitching_Pitches	45
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	26
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260501_MIL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	676879
playerID	676879
playerName	Aaron Ashby
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

Abner Uribe (682842) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 14

All-history rows before 20260505: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.357	0.000	-0.357	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.764	1.000	0.236	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	1.000	2.2500	0.5000	0.2500	0.5000	0.0000	1.2500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	8.667	4.000	7.000	2.000	10.000	1.000	4.1538	1.0385	0.4615	0.8077	0.2308	1.1539	0.1154
season	0.20	14	12.333	5.000	10.000	3.000	14.000	1.000	3.6486	1.0541	0.4054	0.8108	0.2432	1.1351	0.0811

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1090
predicted_ER	0.2980
predicted_ERA	3.1961
predicted_H	0.5620
predicted_HR	0.1420
predicted_IP	0.8400
predicted_SO	1.0020
predicted_WHIP	0.7993

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1090	0.0708	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2980	0.1937	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1961	3.1961	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.5620	0.3653	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1420	0.0923	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.8400	0.8960	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0020	0.6513	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.7993	0.7993	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.65
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	24
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	17
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260502_MIL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	682842
playerID	682842
playerName	Abner Uribe
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

DL Hall (669084) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 14

All-history rows before 20260505: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.943	1.200	0.057	-0.200
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.357	2.000	-1.357	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.667	2.000	3.000	5.000	8.000	0.000	2.7000	1.2000	0.3000	0.4500	0.7500	1.2000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.000	3.000	6.000	7.000	10.000	1.000	2.4545	1.1818	0.2727	0.5454	0.6364	0.9091	0.0909
season	0.20	14	16.000	3.000	9.000	11.000	19.000	1.000	1.6875	1.2500	0.1875	0.5625	0.6875	1.1875	0.0625

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.8470
predicted_ER	0.3250
predicted_ERA	2.4116
predicted_H	0.6140
predicted_HR	0.0540
predicted_IP	1.2140
predicted_SO	1.3300
predicted_WHIP	1.2036

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.8470	0.5505	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3250	0.2113	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.4116	2.4116	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6140	0.3991	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0540	0.0351	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.2140	1.1391	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.3300	0.8645	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2036	1.2036	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	9

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.69
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	24
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	19
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	669084
playerID	669084
playerName	DL Hall
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

Grant Anderson (681982) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 18

All-history rows before 20260505: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.750	0.200	0.250	0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.833	0.000	0.167	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	3.333	2.000	5.000	0.000	4.000	2.000	5.4000	1.5000	0.6000	1.5000	0.0000	1.2000	0.6000
last_10	0.35	10	8.333	4.000	8.000	2.000	6.000	2.000	4.3200	1.2000	0.4800	0.9600	0.2400	0.7200	0.2400
season	0.20	18	17.000	6.000	12.000	6.000	15.000	2.000	3.1765	1.0588	0.3529	0.7059	0.3529	0.8823	0.1177

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1210
predicted_ER	0.3970
predicted_ERA	4.5773
predicted_H	0.8990
predicted_HR	0.2950
predicted_IP	0.7810
predicted_SO	0.7560
predicted_WHIP	1.3068

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.1210	0.4286	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3970	0.2581	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.5773	4.5773	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8990	0.5844	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2950	0.1918	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.7810	0.8577	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.7560	0.8414	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3068	1.3068	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	2
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.18
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	9
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	681982
playerID	681982
playerName	Grant Anderson
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

Trevor Megill (656730) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 13

All-history rows before 20260505: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.615	0.000	-0.615	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.923	1.000	0.077	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.0000	0.4000	0.0000	0.2000	0.2000	0.8000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	3.000	6.000	4.000	10.000	2.7000	1.0000	0.3000	0.6000	0.4000	1.0000
season	0.20	12	12.000	4.000	8.000	5.000	13.000	3.0000	1.0833	0.3333	0.6667	0.4167	1.0833

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3130
predicted_ER	0.1720
predicted_ERA	1.5450
predicted_H	0.4330
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.9270
predicted_WHIP	0.7467

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3130	0.2035	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1720	0.1118	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.5450	1.5450	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.4330	0.2815	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.9270	0.9526	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.7467	0.7467	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	6.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	13
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260502_MIL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	656730
playerID	656730
playerName	Trevor Megill
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIL
teamID	16

Home Team: STL

Nathan Church (701675) · BATTER · DH · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 26

All-history rows before 20260505: 26

System season_avg: 0.2470

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2474

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.154	1.000	-0.154	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.731	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.731	4.000	-0.731	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.270	0.667	0.667	Hitting_AVG	0.247	0.250	0.419	0.417
predicted_BB	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_H	0.780	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.923	1.000	1.077	1.000
predicted_HR	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.275	0.667	0.667	Hitting_OBP	0.275	0.250	0.392	0.417
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.115	0.000	-0.115	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.467	0.667	0.667	Hitting_SLG	0.412	0.500	0.254	0.167
predicted_SO	0.846	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.846	0.000	0.154	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.731	-
predicted_AVG	0.270	-
predicted_BB	0.154	-
predicted_H	0.780	-
predicted_HR	0.100	-
predicted_OBP	0.275	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.467	-
predicted_SO	0.846	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.314	0.160
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.975	0.244
predicted_AVG	0.270	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.076	-0.078
predicted_H	0.993	0.213
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.124	0.024
predicted_OBP	0.275	0.000
predicted_R	0.472	-0.028
predicted_RBI	0.582	0.122
predicted_SLG	0.467	0.000
predicted_SO	0.745	-0.101

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.97), rates preserved: AVG=0.250 HR/AB=0.031

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	6.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	0.2857	0.2857	0.4286	0.2857	0.0000	0.1429	0.0000	0.1429
last_10	0.35	10	-	42.000	11.000	3.000	3.000	8.000	5.000	0.000	7.000	0.2619	0.2619	0.5476	0.2619	0.0714	0.1905	0.0000	0.1667
season	0.20	26	-	97.000	24.000	4.000	4.000	13.000	13.000	4.000	22.000	0.2474	0.2745	0.4124	0.2474	0.0412	0.1340	0.0412	0.2268

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.1060
predicted_AVG	0.2697
predicted_BB	0.0340
predicted_H	1.1080
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1370
predicted_OBP	0.2751
predicted_R	0.4570
predicted_RBI	0.6480
predicted_SLG	0.4670
predicted_SO	0.6900

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1540	0.4000	0.3139	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7310	4.1060	3.9747	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2700	0.2697	0.2698	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1540	0.0340	0.0760	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7800	1.1080	0.9932	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1000	0.1370	0.1240	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2750	0.2751	0.2751	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.4570	0.4721	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.6480	0.5822	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4670	0.4670	0.4670	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8460	0.6900	0.7446	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.247

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260504_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	701675
playerID	701675
playerName	Nathan Church
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	STL
teamID	26

Masyn Winn (691026) · BATTER · C · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 30

All-history rows before 20260505: 30

System season_avg: 0.2740

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2743

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.207	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.034	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_AB	3.897	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.767	3.000	0.233	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.319	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.274	0.333	-0.024	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.379	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.400	1.000	-0.400	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.090	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.033	1.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.384	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.357	0.500	-0.107	-0.250
predicted_R	0.517	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.467	1.000	-0.467	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.371	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.372	0.333	-0.122	-0.083
predicted_SO	0.862	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.833	0.000	0.167	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.207	-
predicted_3B	0.034	-
predicted_AB	3.897	-
predicted_AVG	0.319	-
predicted_BB	0.379	-
predicted_H	1.090	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.384	-
predicted_R	0.517	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.371	-
predicted_SO	0.862	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.181	-0.026
predicted_3B	0.016	-0.018
predicted_AB	3.869	-0.028
predicted_AVG	0.319	0.000
predicted_BB	0.308	-0.071
predicted_H	1.182	0.092
predicted_HBP	0.140	-
predicted_HR	0.008	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.384	0.000
predicted_R	0.456	-0.061
predicted_RBI	0.280	0.020
predicted_SLG	0.371	0.000
predicted_SO	0.689	-0.173

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.90), rates preserved: AVG=0.303 HR/AB=0.002

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.897

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	0.3684	0.4286	0.4211	0.3684	0.0000	0.0526	0.0526	0.1053
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	11.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	7.000	0.2821	0.3488	0.3077	0.2821	0.0000	0.0769	0.0769	0.1795
season	0.20	29	-	113.000	31.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	14.000	15.000	11.000	25.000	0.2743	0.3465	0.3717	0.2743	0.0089	0.1239	0.0974	0.2212

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1670
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.8540
predicted_AVG	0.3194
predicted_BB	0.2700
predicted_H	1.2310
predicted_HBP	0.1400
predicted_HR	0.0070
predicted_OBP	0.3842
predicted_R	0.4230
predicted_RBI	0.2910
predicted_SLG	0.3715
predicted_SO	0.5950

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2070	0.1670	0.1810	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0340	0.0070	0.0164	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8970	3.8540	3.8690	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3190	0.3194	0.3193	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3790	0.2700	0.3082	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0900	1.2310	1.1817	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1400	0.1400	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0070	0.0080	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3840	0.3842	0.3841	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5170	0.4230	0.4559	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.2910	0.2802	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3710	0.3715	0.3713	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8620	0.5950	0.6885	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.274

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260504_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	691026
playerID	691026
playerName	Masyn Winn
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	STL
teamID	26

Jordan Walker (691023) · BATTER · 1B · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 33

All-history rows before 20260505: 33

System season_avg: 0.3120

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3125

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	0.000	0.818	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.879	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.879	3.000	0.121	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.408	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.312	0.333	0.188	0.167
predicted_BB	0.424	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.424	1.000	-0.424	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_H	1.270	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.212	1.000	0.788	1.000
predicted_HR	0.260	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.303	0.000	0.697	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.471	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.382	0.500	0.118	0.000
predicted_R	0.848	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.848	1.000	0.152	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.970	4.000	4.000	Hitting_RBI	0.818	0.000	3.182	4.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.730	1.500	1.500	Hitting_SLG	0.594	0.333	0.906	1.167
predicted_SO	1.242	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.242	2.000	-1.242	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.879	-
predicted_AVG	0.408	-
predicted_BB	0.424	-
predicted_H	1.270	-
predicted_HR	0.260	-
predicted_OBP	0.471	-
predicted_R	0.848	-
predicted_RBI	0.970	-
predicted_SLG	0.730	-
predicted_SO	1.242	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	0.068
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.815	-0.064
predicted_AVG	0.408	0.000
predicted_BB	0.435	0.011
predicted_H	1.447	0.177
predicted_HBP	0.042	-
predicted_HR	0.292	0.032
predicted_OBP	0.471	0.000
predicted_R	0.940	0.092
predicted_RBI	1.107	0.137
predicted_SLG	0.730	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.999	-0.243

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.373 HR/AB=0.075

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	4.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.879

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	9.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	6.000	2.000	3.000	0.4737	0.5238	0.8947	0.4737	0.1053	0.3684	0.1053	0.1579
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	14.000	2.000	2.000	11.000	8.000	5.000	10.000	0.3784	0.4545	0.5946	0.3784	0.0541	0.2973	0.1351	0.2703
season	0.20	33	-	128.000	40.000	6.000	10.000	27.000	28.000	14.000	41.000	0.3125	0.3819	0.5938	0.3125	0.0781	0.2109	0.1094	0.3203

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2860
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7810
predicted_AVG	0.4081
predicted_BB	0.4410
predicted_H	1.5430
predicted_HBP	0.0420
predicted_HR	0.3100
predicted_OBP	0.4712
predicted_R	0.9890
predicted_RBI	1.1800
predicted_SLG	0.7295
predicted_SO	0.8680

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.2860	0.2496	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8790	3.7810	3.8153	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.4080	0.4081	0.4081	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4240	0.4410	0.4350	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2700	1.5430	1.4474	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0420	0.0420	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2600	0.3100	0.2925	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4710	0.4712	0.4711	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8480	0.9890	0.9396	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.9700	1.1800	1.1065	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.7300	0.7295	0.7297	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2420	0.8680	0.9989	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	4
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.312

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260504_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	691023
playerID	691023
playerName	Jordan Walker
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	STL
teamID	26

Alec Burleson (676475) · BATTER · 2B · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 33

All-history rows before 20260505: 33

System season_avg: 0.2710

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2707

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.273	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.030	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.030	5.000	-0.030	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.283	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.271	0.000	-0.021	0.250
predicted_BB	0.485	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.485	0.000	-0.485	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.040	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.091	0.000	-0.091	1.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.152	0.000	-0.152	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.350	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.347	0.000	-0.097	0.250
predicted_R	0.545	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.545	0.000	0.455	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.990	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.848	0.000	-0.848	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.486	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.451	0.000	-0.201	0.250
predicted_SO	0.697	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.697	3.000	-0.697	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.273	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.030	-
predicted_AVG	0.283	-
predicted_BB	0.485	-
predicted_H	1.040	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.350	-
predicted_R	0.545	-
predicted_RBI	0.990	-
predicted_SLG	0.486	-
predicted_SO	0.697	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.257	-0.016
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.037	0.007
predicted_AVG	0.283	0.000
predicted_BB	0.441	-0.044
predicted_H	1.108	0.068
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.183	0.013
predicted_OBP	0.350	-0.000
predicted_R	0.678	0.133
predicted_RBI	1.058	0.068
predicted_SLG	0.486	0.000
predicted_SO	0.891	0.194

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.04), rates preserved: AVG=0.274 HR/AB=0.045

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 4.030

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	4.000	2.000	6.000	0.3000	0.3636	0.5000	0.3000	0.0500	0.3000	0.1000	0.3000
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	11.000	3.000	2.000	11.000	8.000	4.000	9.000	0.2683	0.3333	0.4878	0.2683	0.0488	0.2683	0.0976	0.2195
season	0.20	33	-	133.000	36.000	9.000	5.000	28.000	18.000	16.000	23.000	0.2707	0.3467	0.4511	0.2707	0.0376	0.2105	0.1203	0.1729

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2490
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.0410
predicted_AVG	0.2830
predicted_BB	0.4170
predicted_H	1.1440
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1900
predicted_OBP	0.3496
predicted_R	0.7490
predicted_RBI	1.0950
predicted_SLG	0.4860
predicted_SO	0.9960

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2730	0.2490	0.2574	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0300	4.0410	4.0372	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2830	0.2830	0.2830	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4850	0.4170	0.4408	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0400	1.1440	1.1076	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1900	0.1830	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3500	0.3496	0.3497	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5450	0.7490	0.6776	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.9900	1.0950	1.0582	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4860	0.4860	0.4860	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6970	0.9960	0.8913	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.271

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260504_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	676475
playerID	676475
playerName	Alec Burleson
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	STL
teamID	26

Victor Scott II (687363) · BATTER · 3B · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 30

All-history rows before 20260505: 30

System season_avg: 0.1840

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1839

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.067	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.067	1.000	-0.067	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.900	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	2.900	3.000	1.100	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.145	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.184	0.667	0.066	-0.417
predicted_BB	0.233	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.233	0.000	-0.233	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_H	0.390	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.533	2.000	0.467	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.260	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.250	0.667	0.000	-0.417
predicted_R	0.333	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.333	1.000	0.667	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.232	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.241	1.000	0.009	-0.750
predicted_SO	0.900	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.900	0.000	0.100	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.067	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.900	-
predicted_AVG	0.145	-
predicted_BB	0.233	-
predicted_H	0.390	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.260	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.060	-
predicted_SLG	0.232	-
predicted_SO	0.900	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.115	0.048
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.939	0.039
predicted_AVG	0.145	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.299	0.066
predicted_H	0.415	0.025
predicted_HBP	0.134	-
predicted_HR	0.039	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.260	0.000
predicted_R	0.430	0.097
predicted_RBI	0.064	0.004
predicted_SLG	0.232	0.000
predicted_SO	0.975	0.075

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.94), rates preserved: AVG=0.141 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	5.000	0.1429	0.2941	0.2143	0.1429	0.0000	0.0000	0.1429	0.3571
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	11.000	0.1250	0.2222	0.2500	0.1250	0.0312	0.0312	0.0938	0.3438
season	0.20	30	-	87.000	16.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	10.000	7.000	27.000	0.1839	0.2500	0.2414	0.1839	0.0115	0.0575	0.0805	0.3103

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1410
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.9600
predicted_AVG	0.1448
predicted_BB	0.3350
predicted_H	0.4290
predicted_HBP	0.1340
predicted_HR	0.0390
predicted_OBP	0.2601
predicted_R	0.4830
predicted_RBI	0.0660
predicted_SLG	0.2322
predicted_SO	1.0160

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0670	0.1410	0.1151	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.9000	2.9600	2.9390	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1450	0.1448	0.1449	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2330	0.3350	0.2993	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3900	0.4290	0.4153	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1340	0.1340	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0390	0.0393	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2600	0.2601	0.2601	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.4830	0.4305	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0600	0.0660	0.0639	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2320	0.2322	0.2321	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9000	1.0160	0.9754	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.184

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	1
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260504_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	687363
playerID	687363
playerName	Victor Scott II
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	STL
teamID	26

JJ Wetherholt (802139) · BATTER · SS · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 34

All-history rows before 20260505: 34

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.147	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.147	0.000	-0.147	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.882	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.882	4.000	-0.882	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.263	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.500	-0.250	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.529	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.529	1.000	0.471	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.940	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.971	2.000	-0.971	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.206	0.000	-0.206	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.337	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.365	0.600	-0.115	-0.350
predicted_R	0.824	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.824	1.000	-0.824	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.530	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.529	2.000	-0.529	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.489	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.447	0.500	-0.447	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.794	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.794	0.000	0.206	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.147	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.882	-
predicted_AVG	0.263	-
predicted_BB	0.529	-
predicted_H	0.940	-
predicted_HR	0.230	-
predicted_OBP	0.337	-
predicted_R	0.824	-
predicted_RBI	0.530	-
predicted_SLG	0.489	-
predicted_SO	0.794	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.138	-0.009
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.070	0.188
predicted_AVG	0.263	0.000
predicted_BB	0.441	-0.088
predicted_H	1.042	0.102
predicted_HBP	0.078	-
predicted_HR	0.255	0.025
predicted_OBP	0.337	-0.000
predicted_R	0.777	-0.047
predicted_RBI	0.589	0.058
predicted_SLG	0.489	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.674	-0.120

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.07), rates preserved: AVG=0.256 HR/AB=0.063

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.882

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	0.2381	0.3043	0.3810	0.2381	0.0476	0.1429	0.0952	0.1429
last_10	0.35	10	-	43.000	13.000	3.000	4.000	7.000	9.000	3.000	5.000	0.3023	0.3617	0.6512	0.3023	0.0930	0.1628	0.0698	0.1163
season	0.20	34	-	132.000	33.000	5.000	7.000	18.000	28.000	18.000	27.000	0.2500	0.3648	0.4470	0.2500	0.0530	0.1364	0.1364	0.2046

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1330
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.1710
predicted_AVG	0.2630
predicted_BB	0.3940
predicted_H	1.0970
predicted_HBP	0.0780
predicted_HR	0.2690
predicted_OBP	0.3365
predicted_R	0.7510
predicted_RBI	0.6200
predicted_SLG	0.4888
predicted_SO	0.6090

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1470	0.1330	0.1379	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8820	4.1710	4.0699	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2630	0.2630	0.2630	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5290	0.3940	0.4413	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9400	1.0970	1.0420	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0780	0.0780	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2300	0.2690	0.2554	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3370	0.3365	0.3367	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8240	0.7510	0.7766	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5300	0.6200	0.5885	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4890	0.4888	0.4889	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7940	0.6090	0.6737	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	1
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260504_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	802139
playerID	802139
playerName	JJ Wetherholt
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	STL
teamID	26

Pedro Pagés (686780) · BATTER · LF · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 22

All-history rows before 20260505: 22

System season_avg: 0.2370

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2368

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.136	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.136	0.000	-0.136	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.455	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.455	3.000	0.545	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.225	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.237	0.000	-0.237	0.000
predicted_BB	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.182	1.000	-0.182	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.680	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.818	0.000	-0.818	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.136	0.000	-0.136	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.271	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.289	0.250	-0.289	-0.250
predicted_R	0.364	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.364	1.000	-0.364	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.343	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.395	0.000	-0.395	0.000
predicted_SO	0.955	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.955	2.000	1.045	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.136	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.455	-
predicted_AVG	0.225	-
predicted_BB	0.182	-
predicted_H	0.680	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.271	-
predicted_R	0.364	-
predicted_RBI	0.150	-
predicted_SLG	0.343	-
predicted_SO	0.955	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.146	0.010
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.751	0.296
predicted_AVG	0.225	0.000
predicted_BB	0.215	0.033
predicted_H	0.811	0.131
predicted_HBP	0.021	-
predicted_HR	0.095	0.015
predicted_OBP	0.271	0.000
predicted_R	0.329	-0.035
predicted_RBI	0.176	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.343	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.270	0.315

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.75), rates preserved: AVG=0.216 HR/AB=0.025

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	9.000	0.1905	0.2273	0.2381	0.1905	0.0000	0.0000	0.0476	0.4286
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	10.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	13.000	0.2632	0.3171	0.4474	0.2632	0.0526	0.0790	0.0790	0.3421
season	0.20	22	-	76.000	18.000	3.000	3.000	8.000	8.000	4.000	21.000	0.2368	0.2892	0.3947	0.2368	0.0395	0.1053	0.0526	0.2763

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1510
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9110
predicted_AVG	0.2252
predicted_BB	0.2330
predicted_H	0.8810
predicted_HBP	0.0210
predicted_HR	0.1030
predicted_OBP	0.2711
predicted_R	0.3100
predicted_RBI	0.1900
predicted_SLG	0.3427
predicted_SO	1.4390

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1360	0.1510	0.1457	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4550	3.9110	3.7514	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2250	0.2252	0.2251	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1820	0.2330	0.2152	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6800	0.8810	0.8106	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0210	0.0210	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.1030	0.0949	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2710	0.2711	0.2711	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3640	0.3100	0.3289	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1500	0.1900	0.1760	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3430	0.3427	0.3428	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9550	1.4390	1.2696	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.237

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260504_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	686780
playerID	686780
playerName	Pedro Pagés
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	STL
teamID	26

Nolan Gorman (669357) · BATTER · CF · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 30

All-history rows before 20260505: 30

System season_avg: 0.2250

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2252

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.100	1.000	-0.100	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.700	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.700	4.000	0.300	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.250	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.225	0.500	0.275	0.000
predicted_BB	0.367	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.367	0.000	-0.367	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.760	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.833	2.000	1.167	0.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.289	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.288	0.500	0.212	0.000
predicted_R	0.400	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.400	0.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.480	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.440	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.360	0.750	0.140	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.133	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.133	0.000	-0.133	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.700	-
predicted_AVG	0.250	-
predicted_BB	0.367	-
predicted_H	0.760	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.289	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.480	-
predicted_SLG	0.440	-
predicted_SO	1.133	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.151	0.051
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.811	0.111
predicted_AVG	0.250	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.281	-0.086
predicted_H	0.894	0.134
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.173	0.023
predicted_OBP	0.289	-0.000
predicted_R	0.423	0.023
predicted_RBI	0.568	0.088
predicted_SLG	0.440	0.000
predicted_SO	1.042	-0.091

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.235 HR/AB=0.046

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.2500	0.2857	0.4500	0.2500	0.0500	0.1500	0.0500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	10.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	5.000	2.000	9.000	0.2632	0.2927	0.4737	0.2632	0.0526	0.1579	0.0526	0.2368
season	0.20	30	-	111.000	25.000	3.000	4.000	20.000	12.000	11.000	34.000	0.2252	0.2880	0.3604	0.2252	0.0360	0.1802	0.0991	0.3063

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1790
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8700
predicted_AVG	0.2497
predicted_BB	0.2350
predicted_H	0.9660
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1860
predicted_OBP	0.2886
predicted_R	0.4360
predicted_RBI	0.6150
predicted_SLG	0.4404
predicted_SO	0.9930

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1000	0.1790	0.1513	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7000	3.8700	3.8105	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2500	0.2497	0.2498	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3670	0.2350	0.2812	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7600	0.9660	0.8939	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1860	0.1734	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2890	0.2886	0.2887	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.4360	0.4234	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4800	0.6150	0.5677	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4400	0.4404	0.4403	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1330	0.9930	1.0420	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.225

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260504_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	669357
playerID	669357
playerName	Nolan Gorman
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	STL
teamID	26

Iván Herrera (671056) · BATTER · RF · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 35

All-history rows before 20260505: 35

System season_avg: 0.2560

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2560

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.257	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.257	1.000	-0.257	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.571	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.571	5.000	-0.571	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.296	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.256	0.400	-0.256	-0.400
predicted_BB	0.771	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.771	0.000	-0.771	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.914	2.000	-0.914	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.427	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.416	0.400	-0.416	-0.400
predicted_R	0.600	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.486	3.000	-0.486	-3.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.455	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.424	0.600	-0.424	-0.600
predicted_SO	0.771	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.771	2.000	-0.771	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.257	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.571	-
predicted_AVG	0.296	-
predicted_BB	0.771	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.427	-
predicted_R	0.600	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.455	-
predicted_SO	0.771	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.356	0.099
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.680	0.109
predicted_AVG	0.296	0.000
predicted_BB	0.757	-0.014
predicted_H	1.000	0.200
predicted_HBP	0.123	-
predicted_HR	0.054	0.014
predicted_OBP	0.427	-0.000
predicted_R	0.833	0.233
predicted_RBI	0.488	0.098
predicted_SLG	0.455	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.025	0.254

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.68), rates preserved: AVG=0.272 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	3.000	7.000	0.3000	0.3913	0.4000	0.3000	0.0000	0.1500	0.1500	0.3500
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	11.000	5.000	1.000	5.000	11.000	9.000	11.000	0.3143	0.4783	0.5429	0.3143	0.0286	0.1429	0.2571	0.3143
season	0.20	35	-	125.000	32.000	9.000	4.000	17.000	21.000	27.000	27.000	0.2560	0.4161	0.4240	0.2560	0.0320	0.1360	0.2160	0.2160

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4090
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7390
predicted_AVG	0.2962
predicted_BB	0.7500
predicted_H	1.1080
predicted_HBP	0.1230
predicted_HR	0.0610
predicted_OBP	0.4267
predicted_R	0.9580
predicted_RBI	0.5410
predicted_SLG	0.4548
predicted_SO	1.1620

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2570	0.4090	0.3558	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5710	3.7390	3.6802	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2960	0.2962	0.2961	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7710	0.7500	0.7573	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	1.1080	1.0002	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1230	0.1230	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0610	0.0536	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4270	0.4267	0.4268	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6000	0.9580	0.8327	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.5410	0.4881	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4550	0.4548	0.4549	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7710	1.1620	1.0252	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.256

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.4
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260504_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	671056
playerID	671056
playerName	Iván Herrera
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	STL
teamID	26

Andre Pallante (669467) · PITCHER · Starter · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 6

All-history rows before 20260505: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.167	1.000	-1.167	0.000
predicted_IP	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.183	6.000	-0.183	-1.000
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_SO	4.333	6.000	0.667	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 5.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	26.333	13.000	24.000	11.000	23.000	4.000	4.4430	1.3291	0.4937	0.9114	0.4177	0.8734	0.1519
last_10	0.35	6	31.333	13.000	27.000	14.000	26.000	4.000	3.7340	1.3085	0.4149	0.8617	0.4468	0.8298	0.1277
season	0.20	6	31.333	13.000	27.000	14.000	26.000	4.000	3.7340	1.3085	0.4149	0.8617	0.4468	0.8298	0.1277

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.2740
predicted_ER	2.3610
predicted_ERA	4.0530
predicted_H	4.6340
predicted_HR	0.7260
predicted_IP	5.2420
predicted_SO	4.4530
predicted_WHIP	1.3178

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	2.2740	1.8281	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	2.3610	1.8847	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0530	4.0530	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	4.6340	4.0621	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.7260	0.8219	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.0000	5.2420	5.1573	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	4.4530	4.6445	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3178	1.3178	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.0
H	3
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	5
HR	1
BF	19
Pitches	76

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	24
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.73
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	7
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	91
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	6
Pitching_Strikes	58
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260429_STL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	669467
playerID	669467
playerName	Andre Pallante
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

George Soriano (666277) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 16

All-history rows before 20260505: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.812	0.200	0.188	0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.812	1.000	-0.812	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	5.000	0.000	1.8000	1.6000	0.2000	1.0000	0.6000	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.333	4.000	6.000	6.000	9.000	1.000	4.3200	1.4400	0.4800	0.7200	0.7200	1.0800	0.1200
season	0.20	16	15.333	6.000	9.000	9.000	13.000	1.000	3.5217	1.1739	0.3913	0.5870	0.5870	0.8478	0.0652

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5970
predicted_ER	0.3140
predicted_ERA	3.0263
predicted_H	0.7650
predicted_HR	0.0510
predicted_IP	0.9330
predicted_SO	0.9310
predicted_WHIP	1.4588

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5970	0.3881	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3140	0.2041	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0263	3.0263	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7650	0.4973	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0510	0.0331	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9330	0.9565	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9310	0.6052	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4588	1.4588	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.52
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	666277
playerID	666277
playerName	George Soriano
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

JoJo Romero (668941) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 17

All-history rows before 20260505: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.412	0.000	0.588	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.794	1.000	0.206	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.765	0.000	0.235	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.333	2.000	4.000	3.000	7.000	2.000	4.1538	1.6154	0.4615	0.9231	0.6923	1.6154	0.4615
last_10	0.35	10	9.333	7.000	10.000	5.000	8.000	3.000	6.7500	1.6071	0.7500	1.0714	0.5357	0.8571	0.3214
season	0.20	17	17.000	7.000	15.000	7.000	13.000	3.000	3.7059	1.2941	0.4118	0.8823	0.4118	0.7647	0.1765

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5330
predicted_ER	0.5070
predicted_ERA	4.9729
predicted_H	0.8860
predicted_HR	0.3260
predicted_IP	0.9170
predicted_SO	1.0820
predicted_WHIP	1.5482

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5330	0.3465	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.5070	0.6795	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.9729	4.9729	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.8860	0.9259	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.3260	0.5619	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9170	0.9461	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0820	1.0533	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5482	1.5482	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	1
BF	4
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.71
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	668941
playerID	668941
playerName	JoJo Romero
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

Riley O'Brien (676617) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 17

All-history rows before 20260505: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.918	0.200	0.082	0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.118	0.000	-0.118	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.667	4.000	10.000	1.000	5.000	7.7143	2.3571	0.8571	2.1429	0.2143	1.0714
last_10	0.35	10	9.667	4.000	11.000	1.000	12.000	3.7241	1.2414	0.4138	1.1379	0.1035	1.2414
season	0.20	17	17.000	4.000	15.000	1.000	19.000	2.1176	0.9412	0.2353	0.8823	0.0588	1.1177

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1380
predicted_ER	0.5540
predicted_ERA	5.1984
predicted_H	1.4750
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	0.9580
predicted_SO	1.0930
predicted_WHIP	1.6834

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1380	0.0897	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5540	0.3601	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.1984	5.1984	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.4750	1.3088	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9580	0.9727	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0930	1.0604	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.6834	1.6834	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	2
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.12
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	3
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	3
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	676617
playerID	676617
playerName	Riley O'Brien
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

Ryne Stanek (592773) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team STL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 17

All-history rows before 20260505: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.706	0.000	1.294	2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.718	1.000	0.282	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.176	1.000	0.824	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.333	2.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	0.000	4.1538	1.3846	0.4615	0.6923	0.6923	1.3846	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.333	8.000	11.000	8.000	11.000	0.000	8.6400	2.2800	0.9600	1.3200	0.9600	1.3200	0.0000
season	0.20	17	15.000	12.000	18.000	13.000	20.000	1.000	7.2000	2.0667	0.8000	1.2000	0.8667	1.3333	0.0667

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7040
predicted_ER	0.6040
predicted_ERA	6.3332
predicted_H	0.8700
predicted_HR	0.0110
predicted_IP	0.8580
predicted_SO	1.1600
predicted_WHIP	1.8344

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.7040	0.4576	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.6040	1.0926	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	6.3332	6.3332	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	0.8700	1.6155	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0110	0.0072	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.8580	0.9077	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.1600	1.4540	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.8344	1.8344	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	7.20
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	7
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_MIL@STL
game_type	full
mlbID	592773
playerID	592773
playerName	Ryne Stanek
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	STL
teamID	26

20260505_MIN@WAS

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 6, "confidence": 0.6134041869315101, "home_win_probability": 0.6134041869315101, "away_win_probability": 0.3865958130684899, "predicted_score_text": "MIN 3 - 6 WAS", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "MIN 3 - 4 WAS", "confidence": 0.6134041869315101, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "MIN 3 - 4 WAS", "winner": "WAS"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 6, "score_text": "MIN 3 - 6 WAS", "winner": "WAS"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 2, "total_run_delta": 2, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Away Team: MIN

Austin Martin (668885) · BATTER · RF · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 21

All-history rows before 20260505: 21

System season_avg: 0.3280

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3284

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.190	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.190	3.000	-0.190	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.346	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.328	0.333	-0.328	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.857	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.857	1.000	0.143	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.190	0.000	-0.190	0.000
predicted_H	0.960	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.048	1.000	-1.048	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.455	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.477	0.500	-0.227	-0.250
predicted_R	0.429	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.190	0.000	-0.190	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.404	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.418	0.333	-0.418	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	2.000	0.333	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.190	-
predicted_AVG	0.346	-
predicted_BB	0.857	-
predicted_H	0.960	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.455	-
predicted_R	0.429	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.404	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.093	-0.050
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.381	0.191
predicted_AVG	0.346	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.772	-0.085
predicted_H	1.119	0.159
predicted_HBP	0.021	-
predicted_HR	0.043	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.455	0.000
predicted_R	0.279	-0.150
predicted_RBI	0.268	0.038
predicted_SLG	0.404	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.736	0.069

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.38), rates preserved: AVG=0.331 HR/AB=0.013

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	0.3333	0.4286	0.3333	0.3333	0.0000	0.0556	0.1667	0.2222
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	13.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	8.000	8.000	0.3714	0.4773	0.4857	0.3714	0.0286	0.1143	0.2286	0.2286
season	0.20	21	-	67.000	22.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	9.000	18.000	14.000	0.3284	0.4773	0.4179	0.3284	0.0149	0.0896	0.2687	0.2090

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0660
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4830
predicted_AVG	0.3457
predicted_BB	0.7270
predicted_H	1.2040
predicted_HBP	0.0210
predicted_HR	0.0450
predicted_OBP	0.4554
predicted_R	0.1980
predicted_RBI	0.2890
predicted_SLG	0.4036
predicted_SO	0.7730

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.0660	0.0929	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1900	3.4830	3.3805	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3460	0.3457	0.3458	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8570	0.7270	0.7725	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9600	1.2040	1.1186	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0210	0.0210	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0450	0.0432	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4550	0.4554	0.4553	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4290	0.1980	0.2788	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.2890	0.2683	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4040	0.4036	0.4037	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.7730	0.7359	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.328

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260503_TOR@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	668885
playerID	668885
playerName	Austin Martin
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	MIN
teamID	17

Luke Keaschall (807712) · BATTER · 2B · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 33

All-history rows before 20260505: 33

System season_avg: 0.2270

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2266

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.212	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.212	2.000	-0.212	-2.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.879	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.879	4.000	0.121	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.239	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.227	0.500	-0.227	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.303	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.303	0.000	-0.303	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.750	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.879	2.000	-0.879	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.308	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.284	0.500	-0.284	-0.500
predicted_R	0.424	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.424	1.000	-0.424	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.455	1.000	-0.455	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.212	0.000	-0.212	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.373	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.305	1.000	-0.305	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.212	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.879	-
predicted_AVG	0.239	-
predicted_BB	0.303	-
predicted_H	0.750	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.308	-
predicted_R	0.424	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.373	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.374	0.162
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.675	-0.204
predicted_AVG	0.239	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.355	0.052
predicted_H	0.816	0.066
predicted_HBP	0.040	-
predicted_HR	0.007	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.308	0.000
predicted_R	0.390	-0.034
predicted_RBI	0.360	0.030
predicted_SLG	0.373	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.700	0.033

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.210 HR/AB=0.002

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.879

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	4.000	3.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.2353	0.3000	0.4118	0.2353	0.0000	0.1177	0.1177	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	9.000	4.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	9.000	0.2500	0.3333	0.3611	0.2500	0.0000	0.0833	0.1111	0.2500
season	0.20	33	-	128.000	29.000	7.000	1.000	15.000	14.000	10.000	22.000	0.2266	0.2837	0.3047	0.2266	0.0078	0.1172	0.0781	0.1719

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4610
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5660
predicted_AVG	0.2387
predicted_BB	0.3830
predicted_H	0.8510
predicted_HBP	0.0400
predicted_HR	0.0060
predicted_OBP	0.3084
predicted_R	0.3710
predicted_RBI	0.3760
predicted_SLG	0.3726
predicted_SO	0.7180

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2120	0.4610	0.3739	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8790	3.5660	3.6755	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2390	0.2387	0.2388	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3030	0.3830	0.3550	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7500	0.8510	0.8156	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0400	0.0400	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0060	0.0074	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3080	0.3084	0.3083	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4240	0.3710	0.3895	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.3760	0.3599	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3730	0.3726	0.3727	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.7180	0.7002	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.227

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	2
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260503_TOR@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	807712
playerID	807712
playerName	Luke Keaschall
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	MIN
teamID	17

Ryan Jeffers (680777) · BATTER · C · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 24

All-history rows before 20260505: 24

System season_avg: 0.2870

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2874

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.083	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_3B	0.042	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_AB	3.625	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.625	4.000	-0.625	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.316	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.287	0.000	0.046	0.333
predicted_BB	0.542	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.542	0.000	0.458	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.050	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.042	0.000	-0.042	1.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.367	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.382	0.000	0.118	0.500
predicted_R	0.708	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.708	0.000	-0.708	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.870	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.875	0.000	-0.875	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.494	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.471	0.000	-0.138	0.333
predicted_SO	0.792	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.792	0.000	-0.792	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.083	-
predicted_3B	0.042	-
predicted_AB	3.625	-
predicted_AVG	0.316	-
predicted_BB	0.542	-
predicted_H	1.050	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.367	-
predicted_R	0.708	-
predicted_RBI	0.870	-
predicted_SLG	0.494	-
predicted_SO	0.792	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.041	-0.042
predicted_3B	0.043	0.001
predicted_AB	3.775	0.150
predicted_AVG	0.316	0.000
predicted_BB	0.436	-0.106
predicted_H	1.160	0.110
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.185	0.015
predicted_OBP	0.367	0.000
predicted_R	0.789	0.081
predicted_RBI	0.961	0.091
predicted_SLG	0.494	0.000
predicted_SO	0.797	0.005

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.307 HR/AB=0.049

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	7.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	5.000	1.000	4.000	0.3500	0.3636	0.5000	0.3500	0.0500	0.2500	0.0500	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	11.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	11.000	7.000	5.000	8.000	0.2895	0.3636	0.5000	0.2895	0.0526	0.2895	0.1316	0.2105
season	0.20	24	-	87.000	25.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	21.000	17.000	13.000	19.000	0.2874	0.3824	0.4713	0.2874	0.0460	0.2414	0.1494	0.2184

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0180
predicted_3B	0.0440
predicted_AB	3.8550
predicted_AVG	0.3163
predicted_BB	0.3790
predicted_H	1.2190
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.1930
predicted_OBP	0.3674
predicted_R	0.8330
predicted_RBI	1.0100
predicted_SLG	0.4943
predicted_SO	0.7990

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0830	0.0180	0.0408	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0420	0.0440	0.0433	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6250	3.8550	3.7745	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3160	0.3163	0.3162	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5420	0.3790	0.4361	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0500	1.2190	1.1599	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1930	0.1850	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3670	0.3674	0.3673	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7080	0.8330	0.7893	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.8700	1.0100	0.9610	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4940	0.4943	0.4942	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7920	0.7990	0.7966	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.287

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260502_TOR@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	680777
playerID	680777
playerName	Ryan Jeffers
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	MIN
teamID	17

Kody Clemens (665019) · BATTER · 1B · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 20

All-history rows before 20260505: 20

System season_avg: 0.2190

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2192

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	1.000	-0.200	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.650	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.650	3.000	0.350	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.219	0.333	0.281	0.167
predicted_BB	0.450	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.450	1.000	-0.450	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_H	0.730	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.800	1.000	1.200	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.150	0.000	0.850	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.364	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.321	0.500	0.179	0.000
predicted_R	0.400	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.400	1.000	0.600	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	3.000	3.000	Hitting_RBI	0.450	1.000	2.550	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.394	1.250	1.250	Hitting_SLG	0.397	0.667	0.853	0.583
predicted_SO	1.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.150	1.000	-1.150	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.650	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.450	-
predicted_H	0.730	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.364	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.394	-
predicted_SO	1.150	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.285	0.085
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.507	-0.143
predicted_AVG	0.244	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.487	0.037
predicted_H	0.799	0.069
predicted_HBP	0.149	-
predicted_HR	0.058	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.364	-0.000
predicted_R	0.464	0.064
predicted_RBI	0.363	0.033
predicted_SLG	0.394	0.000
predicted_SO	1.052	-0.098

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.65), rates preserved: AVG=0.219 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	5.000	0.2500	0.4000	0.3750	0.2500	0.0000	0.0625	0.1875	0.3125
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	9.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	4.000	4.000	9.000	0.2500	0.3415	0.4167	0.2500	0.0278	0.1667	0.1111	0.2500
season	0.20	20	-	73.000	16.000	4.000	3.000	9.000	8.000	9.000	23.000	0.2192	0.3214	0.3973	0.2192	0.0411	0.1233	0.1233	0.3151

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3310
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4300
predicted_AVG	0.2438
predicted_BB	0.5070
predicted_H	0.8360
predicted_HBP	0.1490
predicted_HR	0.0620
predicted_OBP	0.3638
predicted_R	0.4980
predicted_RBI	0.3810
predicted_SLG	0.3941
predicted_SO	0.9990

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.3310	0.2852	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6500	3.4300	3.5070	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2438	0.2439	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4500	0.5070	0.4870	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7300	0.8360	0.7989	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1490	0.1490	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0620	0.0578	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3640	0.3638	0.3639	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.4980	0.4637	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.3810	0.3631	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3940	0.3941	0.3941	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1500	0.9990	1.0518	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.219

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260503_TOR@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	665019
playerID	665019
playerName	Kody Clemens
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	MIN
teamID	17

Brooks Lee (686797) · BATTER · SS · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 30

All-history rows before 20260505: 30

System season_avg: 0.2480

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2477

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.067	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.067	0.000	0.933	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.633	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.633	4.000	0.367	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.311	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.248	0.250	0.252	0.250
predicted_BB	0.267	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.267	0.000	-0.267	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_H	0.880	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.900	1.000	1.100	1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.340	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.305	0.250	0.195	0.250
predicted_R	0.467	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.467	0.000	0.533	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.533	0.000	-0.533	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.407	0.750	0.750	Hitting_SLG	0.404	0.250	0.346	0.500
predicted_SO	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.800	1.000	0.200	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.067	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.633	-
predicted_AVG	0.311	-
predicted_BB	0.267	-
predicted_H	0.880	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.340	-
predicted_R	0.467	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.407	-
predicted_SO	0.800	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.055	-0.012
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.720	0.087
predicted_AVG	0.311	0.000
predicted_BB	0.197	-0.070
predicted_H	1.071	0.191
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.096	0.016
predicted_OBP	0.340	-0.000
predicted_R	0.523	0.056
predicted_RBI	0.535	0.095
predicted_SLG	0.407	0.000
predicted_SO	0.916	0.116

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.288 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	6.000	0.3158	0.3158	0.3158	0.3158	0.0000	0.1579	0.0000	0.3158
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	13.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	8.000	3.000	8.000	0.3421	0.3902	0.5263	0.3421	0.0526	0.1579	0.0790	0.2105
season	0.20	30	-	109.000	27.000	2.000	5.000	16.000	14.000	8.000	24.000	0.2477	0.3051	0.4037	0.2477	0.0459	0.1468	0.0734	0.2202

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0490
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7670
predicted_AVG	0.3114
predicted_BB	0.1590
predicted_H	1.1730
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.1040
predicted_OBP	0.3397
predicted_R	0.5530
predicted_RBI	0.5860
predicted_SLG	0.4071
predicted_SO	0.9790

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0670	0.0490	0.0553	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6330	3.7670	3.7201	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3110	0.3114	0.3113	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2670	0.1590	0.1968	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8800	1.1730	1.0705	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.1040	0.0956	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3400	0.3397	0.3398	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4670	0.5530	0.5229	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.5860	0.5349	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4070	0.4071	0.4071	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8000	0.9790	0.9163	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.248

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260503_TOR@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	686797
playerID	686797
playerName	Brooks Lee
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	MIN
teamID	17

Royce Lewis (668904) · BATTER · 3B · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 22

All-history rows before 20260505: 22

System season_avg: 0.1760

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1757

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.091	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.364	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.364	4.000	0.636	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.131	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.176	0.000	0.324	0.500
predicted_BB	0.409	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.409	0.000	-0.409	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.330	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.591	0.000	1.409	2.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.136	0.000	-0.136	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.180	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.274	0.000	0.226	0.500
predicted_R	0.318	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.318	0.000	0.682	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.455	0.000	-0.455	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.189	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.324	0.000	0.176	0.500
predicted_SO	1.136	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.136	2.000	0.864	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.091	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.364	-
predicted_AVG	0.131	-
predicted_BB	0.409	-
predicted_H	0.330	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.180	-
predicted_R	0.318	-
predicted_RBI	0.120	-
predicted_SLG	0.189	-
predicted_SO	1.136	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.045	-0.046
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.532	0.168
predicted_AVG	0.131	0.000
predicted_BB	0.281	-0.128
predicted_H	0.424	0.094
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.055	0.015
predicted_OBP	0.180	-0.000
predicted_R	0.178	-0.140
predicted_RBI	0.149	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.189	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.133	-0.003

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.53), rates preserved: AVG=0.120 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	0.1111	0.1579	0.1111	0.1111	0.0000	0.0000	0.0556	0.2778
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	13.000	0.1316	0.1538	0.2105	0.1316	0.0263	0.0526	0.0263	0.3421
season	0.20	22	-	74.000	13.000	2.000	3.000	10.000	7.000	9.000	25.000	0.1757	0.2738	0.3243	0.1757	0.0405	0.1351	0.1216	0.3378

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0200
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6230
predicted_AVG	0.1312
predicted_BB	0.2120
predicted_H	0.4750
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.0630
predicted_OBP	0.1796
predicted_R	0.1020
predicted_RBI	0.1650
predicted_SLG	0.1885
predicted_SO	1.1310

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0910	0.0200	0.0449	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3640	3.6230	3.5324	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1310	0.1312	0.1311	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4090	0.2120	0.2809	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3300	0.4750	0.4242	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0630	0.0549	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1800	0.1796	0.1797	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3180	0.1020	0.1776	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1200	0.1650	0.1492	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1890	0.1885	0.1887	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1360	1.1310	1.1328	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.176

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260503_TOR@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	668904
playerID	668904
playerName	Royce Lewis
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	MIN
teamID	17

Josh Bell (605137) · BATTER · DH · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 32

All-history rows before 20260505: 32

System season_avg: 0.2200

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2203

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.156	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.156	0.000	-0.156	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.688	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.688	4.000	-0.688	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.161	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.220	0.000	-0.220	0.000
predicted_BB	0.438	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.438	0.000	0.562	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.540	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.812	0.000	-0.812	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.094	0.000	-0.094	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.199	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.306	0.000	-0.056	0.250
predicted_R	0.656	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.656	0.000	-0.656	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.531	0.000	-0.531	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.185	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.339	0.000	-0.339	0.000
predicted_SO	0.781	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.781	1.000	0.219	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.156	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.688	-
predicted_AVG	0.161	-
predicted_BB	0.438	-
predicted_H	0.540	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.199	-
predicted_R	0.656	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.185	-
predicted_SO	0.781	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.077	-0.079
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.908	0.220
predicted_AVG	0.161	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.284	-0.154
predicted_H	0.610	0.070
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.199	-0.000
predicted_R	0.471	-0.185
predicted_RBI	0.258	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.185	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.825	0.044

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.91), rates preserved: AVG=0.156 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	0.1429	0.1429	0.1429	0.1429	0.0000	0.0476	0.0000	0.2381
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	7.000	0.1500	0.2093	0.1500	0.1500	0.0000	0.0500	0.0750	0.1750
season	0.20	32	-	118.000	26.000	5.000	3.000	17.000	21.000	14.000	25.000	0.2203	0.3060	0.3390	0.2203	0.0254	0.1441	0.1186	0.2119

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0340
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.0270
predicted_AVG	0.1609
predicted_BB	0.2010
predicted_H	0.6480
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.0200
predicted_OBP	0.1988
predicted_R	0.3710
predicted_RBI	0.2730
predicted_SLG	0.1846
predicted_SO	0.8490

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1560	0.0340	0.0767	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6880	4.0270	3.9083	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1610	0.1609	0.1609	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4380	0.2010	0.2840	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5400	0.6480	0.6102	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0200	0.0200	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1990	0.1988	0.1989	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6560	0.3710	0.4708	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.2730	0.2580	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1850	0.1846	0.1847	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7810	0.8490	0.8252	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260502_TOR@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	605137
playerID	605137
playerName	Josh Bell
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	MIN
teamID	17

Trevor Larnach (663616) · BATTER · LF · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 22

All-history rows before 20260505: 22

System season_avg: 0.2920

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2917

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.227	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.227	0.000	-0.227	0.000
predicted_3B	0.045	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_AB	3.273	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.273	4.000	0.727	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.321	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.292	0.250	-0.292	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.727	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.727	0.000	-0.727	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.950	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.955	1.000	-0.955	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.407	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.420	0.250	-0.420	-0.250
predicted_R	0.636	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.636	1.000	-0.636	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.409	0.000	-0.409	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.449	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.431	0.250	-0.431	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.727	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.727	1.000	0.273	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.227	-
predicted_3B	0.045	-
predicted_AB	3.273	-
predicted_AVG	0.321	-
predicted_BB	0.727	-
predicted_H	0.950	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.407	-
predicted_R	0.636	-
predicted_RBI	0.210	-
predicted_SLG	0.449	-
predicted_SO	0.727	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.295	0.068
predicted_3B	0.044	-0.001
predicted_AB	3.408	0.135
predicted_AVG	0.321	0.000
predicted_BB	0.581	-0.146
predicted_H	1.059	0.109
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.407	-0.000
predicted_R	0.640	0.004
predicted_RBI	0.233	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.449	0.000
predicted_SO	0.727	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.41), rates preserved: AVG=0.311 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	0.3529	0.4211	0.4706	0.3529	0.0000	0.0588	0.1177	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	11.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	7.000	5.000	9.000	0.2973	0.3810	0.4324	0.2973	0.0000	0.0541	0.1351	0.2432
season	0.20	22	-	72.000	21.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	9.000	14.000	16.000	16.000	0.2917	0.4205	0.4306	0.2917	0.0139	0.1250	0.2222	0.2222

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3310
predicted_3B	0.0430
predicted_AB	3.4800
predicted_AVG	0.3212
predicted_BB	0.5030
predicted_H	1.1180
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0100
predicted_OBP	0.4069
predicted_R	0.6420
predicted_RBI	0.2450
predicted_SLG	0.4492
predicted_SO	0.7270

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2270	0.3310	0.2946	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0450	0.0430	0.0437	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2730	3.4800	3.4076	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3210	0.3212	0.3211	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7270	0.5030	0.5814	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9500	1.1180	1.0592	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0100	0.0100	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4070	0.4069	0.4069	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6360	0.6420	0.6399	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2100	0.2450	0.2328	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4490	0.4492	0.4491	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7270	0.7270	0.7270	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.292

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260503_TOR@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	663616
playerID	663616
playerName	Trevor Larnach
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	MIN
teamID	17

Byron Buxton (621439) · BATTER · CF · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 32

All-history rows before 20260505: 32

System season_avg: 0.2540

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2537

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.156	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.156	0.000	-0.156	0.000
predicted_3B	0.031	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_AB	4.188	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	4.188	3.000	0.812	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.314	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.254	0.000	-0.254	0.000
predicted_BB	0.312	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.312	1.000	-0.312	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.062	0.000	-1.062	0.000
predicted_HR	0.470	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.312	0.000	-0.312	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.373	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.313	0.250	-0.313	-0.250
predicted_R	0.781	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.781	0.000	-0.781	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.650	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.438	0.000	-0.438	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.062	1.000	-0.062	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.733	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.530	0.000	-0.530	0.000
predicted_SO	1.156	3.000	3.000	Hitting_SO	1.156	1.000	1.844	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.156	-
predicted_3B	0.031	-
predicted_AB	4.188	-
predicted_AVG	0.314	-
predicted_BB	0.312	-
predicted_H	1.210	-
predicted_HR	0.470	-
predicted_OBP	0.373	-
predicted_R	0.781	-
predicted_RBI	0.650	-
predicted_SLG	0.733	-
predicted_SO	1.156	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.179	0.023
predicted_3B	0.015	-0.016
predicted_AB	4.159	-0.029
predicted_AVG	0.314	0.000
predicted_BB	0.336	0.024
predicted_H	1.269	0.059
predicted_HBP	0.046	-
predicted_HR	0.496	0.026
predicted_OBP	0.373	0.000
predicted_R	0.748	-0.033
predicted_RBI	0.679	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.733	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.872	-0.284

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.19), rates preserved: AVG=0.303 HR/AB=0.118

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 4.188

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	7.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	0.3500	0.4091	0.8500	0.3500	0.1500	0.2000	0.1000	0.1000
last_10	0.35	10	-	43.000	13.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	7.000	6.000	3.000	9.000	0.3023	0.3617	0.6977	0.3023	0.1163	0.1628	0.0698	0.2093
season	0.20	32	-	134.000	34.000	5.000	1.000	10.000	14.000	25.000	10.000	37.000	0.2537	0.3129	0.5299	0.2537	0.0746	0.1045	0.0746	0.2761

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1920
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	4.1430
predicted_AVG	0.3140
predicted_BB	0.3490
predicted_H	1.3010
predicted_HBP	0.0460
predicted_HR	0.5100
predicted_OBP	0.3733
predicted_R	0.7300
predicted_RBI	0.6950
predicted_SLG	0.7327
predicted_SO	0.7190

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1560	0.1920	0.1794	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0310	0.0060	0.0147	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1880	4.1430	4.1587	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3140	0.3140	0.3140	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3120	0.3490	0.3360	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2100	1.3010	1.2692	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0460	0.0460	form_only
predicted_HR	0.4700	0.5100	0.4960	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3730	0.3733	0.3732	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7810	0.7300	0.7478	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6500	0.6950	0.6792	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.7330	0.7327	0.7328	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1560	0.7190	0.8720	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.254

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260503_TOR@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	621439
playerID	621439
playerName	Byron Buxton
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	MIN
teamID	17

Taj Bradley (671737) · PITCHER · Starter · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 7

All-history rows before 20260505: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.857	2.000	2.143	2.000
predicted_IP	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.757	7.000	-0.757	-2.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	6.286	7.000	-6.286	-7.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 5.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	30.667	12.000	27.000	11.000	32.000	5.000	3.5217	1.2391	0.3913	0.8804	0.3587	1.0435	0.1630
last_10	0.35	7	41.000	13.000	35.000	15.000	44.000	5.000	2.8537	1.2195	0.3171	0.8537	0.3659	1.0732	0.1220
season	0.20	7	41.000	13.000	35.000	15.000	44.000	5.000	2.8537	1.2195	0.3171	0.8537	0.3659	1.0732	0.1220

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.1690
predicted_ER	2.0960
predicted_ERA	3.1543
predicted_H	5.1780
predicted_HR	0.8400
predicted_IP	5.9810
predicted_SO	6.3390
predicted_WHIP	1.2283

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	2.1690	2.1098	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	4.0000	2.0960	2.7624	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.1543	3.1543	form_only
predicted_H	7.0000	5.1780	5.8157	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	2.0000	0.8400	1.2460	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.0000	5.9810	5.6376	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	6.3390	4.1204	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2283	1.2283	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.0
H	7
R	4
ER	4
BB	2
SO	0
HR	2
BF	24
Pitches	87

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	27
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	2.85
Pitching_Flyouts	7
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	7.0
Pitching_Pitches	114
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	7
Pitching_Strikes	73
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260429_SEA@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	671737
playerID	671737
playerName	Taj Bradley
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Eric Orze (679358) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 14

All-history rows before 20260505: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.571	0.000	-0.571	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.986	1.100	0.014	-0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.071	2.000	-0.071	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	4.000	5.000	4.000	7.000	6.0000	1.5000	0.6667	0.8333	0.6667	1.1667
last_10	0.35	10	11.000	7.000	11.000	5.000	12.000	5.7273	1.4545	0.6364	1.0000	0.4546	1.0909
season	0.20	14	15.667	8.000	14.000	8.000	15.000	4.5957	1.4043	0.5106	0.8936	0.5106	0.9575

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6450
predicted_ER	0.7180
predicted_ERA	5.6237
predicted_H	1.0380
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.1490
predicted_SO	1.2620
predicted_WHIP	1.4649

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6450	0.4193	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.7180	0.4667	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.6237	5.6237	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.0380	1.0247	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.1490	1.0968	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.2620	1.1703	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4649	1.4649	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.60
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	24
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	15
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_TOR@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	679358
playerID	679358
playerName	Eric Orze
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Justin Topa (623437) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 20

All-history rows before 20260505: 20

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.400	2.000	1.600	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.665	1.000	0.335	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.600	0.000	0.400	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.667	3.000	6.000	1.000	5.000	2.000	5.7857	1.5000	0.6429	1.2857	0.2143	1.0714	0.4286
last_10	0.35	10	8.667	4.000	9.000	3.000	7.000	2.000	4.1538	1.3846	0.4615	1.0385	0.3462	0.8077	0.2308
season	0.20	20	16.333	8.000	19.000	6.000	12.000	3.000	4.4082	1.5306	0.4898	1.1633	0.3674	0.7347	0.1837

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2580
predicted_ER	0.4870
predicted_ERA	4.9390
predicted_H	1.0420
predicted_HR	0.2750
predicted_IP	0.8870
predicted_SO	0.8080
predicted_WHIP	1.4657

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.2580	0.5177	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.4870	1.0166	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.9390	4.9390	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.0420	1.0273	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.2750	0.5288	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.8870	0.9265	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8080	0.8752	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4657	1.4657	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	1
HR	1
BF	5
Pitches	22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	4.70
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_TOR@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	623437
playerID	623437
playerName	Justin Topa
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Taylor Rogers (573124) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team MIN

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 15

All-history rows before 20260505: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.533	1.000	-0.533	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.740	2.100	0.260	-1.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.667	3.000	0.333	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.667	2.000	7.000	2.000	3.000	3.1765	1.5882	0.3529	1.2353	0.3529	0.5294
last_10	0.35	10	10.333	3.000	12.000	5.000	7.000	2.6129	1.6452	0.2903	1.1613	0.4839	0.6774
season	0.20	14	13.667	5.000	16.000	5.000	10.000	3.2927	1.5366	0.3659	1.1707	0.3659	0.7317

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4280
predicted_ER	0.3560
predicted_ERA	3.0025
predicted_H	1.2760
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0670
predicted_SO	0.6630
predicted_WHIP	1.5978

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4280	0.2782	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3560	0.2314	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0025	3.0025	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.2760	0.8294	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0670	1.0435	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.6630	0.7810	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5978	1.5978	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	15

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	12
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	5.27
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.1
Pitching_Pitches	32
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	23
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_TOR@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	573124
playerID	573124
playerName	Taylor Rogers
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	MIN
teamID	17

Home Team: WAS

Daylen Lile (695734) · BATTER · LF · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 34

All-history rows before 20260505: 34

System season_avg: 0.2460

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2464

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.235	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.235	0.000	0.765	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.059	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	4.059	3.000	-1.059	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.147	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.246	0.000	0.087	0.333
predicted_BB	0.382	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.382	0.000	0.618	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.088	0.000	-0.088	0.000
predicted_H	0.540	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.088	0.000	-0.088	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.217	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.311	0.000	0.189	0.500
predicted_R	0.588	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.588	0.000	0.412	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.412	0.000	-0.412	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.205	0.667	0.667	Hitting_SLG	0.370	0.000	0.297	0.667
predicted_SO	0.824	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.824	1.000	-0.824	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.235	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.059	-
predicted_AVG	0.147	-
predicted_BB	0.382	-
predicted_H	0.540	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.217	-
predicted_R	0.588	-
predicted_RBI	0.110	-
predicted_SLG	0.205	-
predicted_SO	0.824	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.193	-0.042
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.856	-0.203
predicted_AVG	0.147	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.359	-0.023
predicted_H	0.546	0.006
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.017	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.217	0.000
predicted_R	0.513	-0.075
predicted_RBI	0.112	0.002
predicted_SLG	0.205	0.000
predicted_SO	1.083	0.259

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.06), rates preserved: AVG=0.134 HR/AB=0.004

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 4.059

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	0.1053	0.1500	0.1579	0.1053	0.0000	0.0000	0.0526	0.3684
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	5.000	12.000	0.1429	0.2500	0.1714	0.1429	0.0000	0.0286	0.1429	0.3429
season	0.20	34	-	138.000	34.000	8.000	3.000	14.000	20.000	13.000	28.000	0.2464	0.3113	0.3696	0.2464	0.0217	0.1014	0.0942	0.2029

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1700
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7470
predicted_AVG	0.1467
predicted_BB	0.3470
predicted_H	0.5490
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0160
predicted_OBP	0.2173
predicted_R	0.4730
predicted_RBI	0.1130
predicted_SLG	0.2050
predicted_SO	1.2230

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2350	0.1700	0.1928	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0590	3.7470	3.8562	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1470	0.1467	0.1468	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3820	0.3470	0.3592	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5400	0.5490	0.5459	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0160	0.0174	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2170	0.2173	0.2172	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5880	0.4730	0.5132	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1100	0.1130	0.1119	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2050	0.2050	0.2050	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8240	1.2230	1.0834	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.246

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260503_MIL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	695734
playerID	695734
playerName	Daylen Lile
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	WAS
teamID	30

Curtis Mead (678554) · BATTER · 1B · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 12

All-history rows before 20260505: 12

System season_avg: 0.2610

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2609

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.833	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.833	4.000	0.167	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.269	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.261	0.250	-0.261	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.417	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.417	0.000	-0.417	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.950	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.378	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.346	0.250	-0.346	-0.250
predicted_R	0.750	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.750	1.000	-0.750	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.510	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.552	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.543	0.500	-0.543	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.667	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.333	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.833	-
predicted_AVG	0.269	-
predicted_BB	0.417	-
predicted_H	0.950	-
predicted_HR	0.220	-
predicted_OBP	0.378	-
predicted_R	0.750	-
predicted_RBI	0.510	-
predicted_SLG	0.552	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.345	0.012
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.839	0.006
predicted_AVG	0.269	0.000
predicted_BB	0.490	0.073
predicted_H	1.005	0.055
predicted_HBP	0.142	-
predicted_HR	0.236	0.016
predicted_OBP	0.378	-0.000
predicted_R	0.917	0.167
predicted_RBI	0.541	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.552	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.632	-0.035

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.84), rates preserved: AVG=0.262 HR/AB=0.062

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 3.833

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	3.000	3.000	0.2632	0.3913	0.5263	0.2632	0.0526	0.1053	0.1579	0.1579
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	11.000	3.000	3.000	7.000	9.000	5.000	6.000	0.2821	0.3778	0.5897	0.2821	0.0769	0.1795	0.1282	0.1538
season	0.20	12	-	46.000	12.000	4.000	3.000	8.000	9.000	5.000	8.000	0.2609	0.3462	0.5435	0.2609	0.0652	0.1739	0.1087	0.1739

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3520
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8420
predicted_AVG	0.2694
predicted_BB	0.5290
predicted_H	1.0350
predicted_HBP	0.1420
predicted_HR	0.2450
predicted_OBP	0.3776
predicted_R	1.0070
predicted_RBI	0.5570
predicted_SLG	0.5519
predicted_SO	0.6130

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3330	0.3520	0.3453	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8330	3.8420	3.8388	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2690	0.2694	0.2693	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4170	0.5290	0.4898	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9500	1.0350	1.0052	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1420	0.1420	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2200	0.2450	0.2363	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3780	0.3776	0.3777	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7500	1.0070	0.9170	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5100	0.5570	0.5406	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5520	0.5519	0.5519	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.6130	0.6319	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.261

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B-2B
gameID	20260502_MIL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	678554
playerID	678554
playerName	Curtis Mead
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	WAS
teamID	30

CJ Abrams (682928) · BATTER · SS · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 33

All-history rows before 20260505: 33

System season_avg: 0.2990

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2991

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.121	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.121	0.000	-0.121	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.545	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.545	4.000	0.455	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.379	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.299	0.500	0.201	0.000
predicted_BB	0.515	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.515	0.000	-0.515	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_H	1.220	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.061	2.000	0.939	0.000
predicted_HR	0.190	2.000	2.000	Hitting_HR	0.242	0.000	1.758	2.000
predicted_OBP	0.472	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.408	0.500	0.092	0.000
predicted_R	0.576	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.576	2.000	0.424	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.910	3.000	3.000	Hitting_RBI	0.818	0.000	2.182	3.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.182	1.000	-0.182	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.600	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SLG	0.538	0.500	1.462	1.500
predicted_SO	0.727	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.727	1.000	0.273	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.121	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.545	-
predicted_AVG	0.379	-
predicted_BB	0.515	-
predicted_H	1.220	-
predicted_HR	0.190	-
predicted_OBP	0.472	-
predicted_R	0.576	-
predicted_RBI	0.910	-
predicted_SLG	0.600	-
predicted_SO	0.727	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.141	0.020
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.515	-0.030
predicted_AVG	0.379	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.598	0.083
predicted_H	1.288	0.068
predicted_HBP	0.036	-
predicted_HR	0.202	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.472	0.000
predicted_R	0.627	0.051
predicted_RBI	0.961	0.051
predicted_SLG	0.600	0.000
predicted_SO	0.787	0.060

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.54), rates preserved: AVG=0.363 HR/AB=0.057

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	2.000	2.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	3.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	4.000	4.000	4.000	0.4706	0.5714	0.7059	0.4706	0.0588	0.3529	0.2353	0.2353
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	11.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	5.000	5.000	9.000	0.3056	0.3810	0.5000	0.3056	0.0556	0.2222	0.1389	0.2500
season	0.20	33	-	117.000	35.000	4.000	8.000	27.000	19.000	17.000	24.000	0.2991	0.4085	0.5385	0.2992	0.0684	0.2308	0.1453	0.2051

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1510
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4990
predicted_AVG	0.3785
predicted_BB	0.6420
predicted_H	1.3250
predicted_HBP	0.0360
predicted_HR	0.2090
predicted_OBP	0.4722
predicted_R	0.6540
predicted_RBI	0.9890
predicted_SLG	0.6004
predicted_SO	0.8200

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1210	0.1510	0.1405	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5450	3.4990	3.5151	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3790	0.3785	0.3787	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5150	0.6420	0.5976	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2200	1.3250	1.2882	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0360	0.0360	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1900	0.2090	0.2023	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4720	0.4722	0.4721	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5760	0.6540	0.6267	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.9100	0.9890	0.9614	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6000	0.6004	0.6003	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7270	0.8200	0.7874	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	2
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.299

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260503_MIL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	682928
playerID	682928
playerName	CJ Abrams
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	WAS
teamID	30

James Wood (695578) · BATTER · RF · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 35

All-history rows before 20260505: 35

System season_avg: 0.2310

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2313

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.829	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.829	4.000	0.171	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.195	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.231	0.000	0.019	0.250
predicted_BB	0.886	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.886	0.000	-0.886	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_H	0.680	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.886	0.000	0.114	1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.286	0.000	0.714	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.311	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.383	0.000	-0.133	0.250
predicted_R	0.857	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.857	0.000	0.143	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.500	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.686	0.000	1.314	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.311	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.507	0.000	0.493	1.000
predicted_SO	1.543	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.543	1.000	-1.543	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.829	-
predicted_AVG	0.195	-
predicted_BB	0.886	-
predicted_H	0.680	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.311	-
predicted_R	0.857	-
predicted_RBI	0.500	-
predicted_SLG	0.311	-
predicted_SO	1.543	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.176	-0.024
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.827	-0.002
predicted_AVG	0.195	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.731	-0.155
predicted_H	0.722	0.042
predicted_HBP	0.011	-
predicted_HR	0.093	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.311	-0.000
predicted_R	0.700	-0.157
predicted_RBI	0.529	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.311	0.000
predicted_SO	1.599	0.056

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.188 HR/AB=0.024

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.829

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	8.000	0.2000	0.2727	0.2500	0.2000	0.0000	0.1500	0.1000	0.4000
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	8.000	17.000	0.1667	0.3182	0.2778	0.1667	0.0278	0.1111	0.2222	0.4722
season	0.20	35	-	134.000	31.000	7.000	10.000	24.000	30.000	31.000	54.000	0.2313	0.3832	0.5075	0.2313	0.0746	0.1791	0.2313	0.4030

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1630
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8260
predicted_AVG	0.1946
predicted_BB	0.6470
predicted_H	0.7440
predicted_HBP	0.0110
predicted_HR	0.0940
predicted_OBP	0.3107
predicted_R	0.6160
predicted_RBI	0.5440
predicted_SLG	0.3112
predicted_SO	1.6290

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.1630	0.1759	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8290	3.8260	3.8271	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1950	0.1946	0.1947	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8860	0.6470	0.7307	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6800	0.7440	0.7216	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0110	0.0110	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0940	0.0926	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3110	0.3107	0.3108	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.8570	0.6160	0.7004	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5000	0.5440	0.5286	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3110	0.3112	0.3111	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.5430	1.6290	1.5989	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.231

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260503_MIL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	695578
playerID	695578
playerName	James Wood
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	WAS
teamID	30

Jose Fernandez (699912) · BATTER · DH · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 0

All-history rows before 20260505: 0

System season_avg: 0.3150

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): -

Diff (system - data): -

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	-	-	-	-
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	-	-	-	-
predicted_AB	3.708	2.000	2.000	Hitting_AB	-	-	-	-
predicted_AVG	0.229	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	-	-	-	-
predicted_BB	0.167	2.000	2.000	Hitting_BB	-	-	-	-
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	-	-	-	-
predicted_H	0.660	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	-	-	-	-
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	-	-	-	-
predicted_OBP	0.329	0.750	0.750	Hitting_OBP	-	-	-	-
predicted_R	0.792	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	-	-	-	-
predicted_RBI	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	-	-	-	-
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	-	-	-	-
predicted_SLG	0.296	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	0.833	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.708	-
predicted_AVG	0.229	-
predicted_BB	0.167	-
predicted_H	0.660	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.329	-
predicted_R	0.792	-
predicted_RBI	0.160	-
predicted_SLG	0.296	-
predicted_SO	0.833	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.081	-0.044
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.512	-0.196
predicted_AVG	0.229	0.000
predicted_BB	0.292	0.125
predicted_H	0.739	0.079
predicted_HBP	0.138	-
predicted_HR	0.055	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.329	-0.000
predicted_R	0.696	-0.096
predicted_RBI	0.182	0.022
predicted_SLG	0.296	0.000
predicted_SO	0.711	-0.122

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.199 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	2.000	2.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	0.1250	0.2632	0.1250	0.1250	0.0000	0.0000	0.1250	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	11.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	9.000	4.000	6.000	0.3143	0.4000	0.4286	0.3143	0.0286	0.0857	0.1143	0.1714
season	0.20	24	-	89.000	28.000	3.000	3.000	12.000	19.000	4.000	20.000	0.3146	0.3511	0.4494	0.3146	0.0337	0.1348	0.0449	0.2247

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0570
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4070
predicted_AVG	0.2292
predicted_BB	0.3590
predicted_H	0.7810
predicted_HBP	0.1380
predicted_HR	0.0570
predicted_OBP	0.3287
predicted_R	0.6440
predicted_RBI	0.1940
predicted_SLG	0.2961
predicted_SO	0.6450

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.0570	0.0808	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7080	3.4070	3.5124	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2290	0.2292	0.2291	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1670	0.3590	0.2918	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6600	0.7810	0.7387	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1380	0.1380	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0570	0.0546	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3290	0.3287	0.3288	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7920	0.6440	0.6958	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1600	0.1940	0.1821	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2960	0.2961	0.2961	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8330	0.6450	0.7108	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.315

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

Keibert Ruiz (660688) · BATTER · C · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 18

All-history rows before 20260505: 18

System season_avg: 0.1900

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1897

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.278	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.278	1.000	-0.278	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.222	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.222	3.000	0.778	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.188	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.190	0.333	-0.190	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.056	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.460	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.611	1.000	-0.611	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.201	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.213	0.333	-0.213	-0.333
predicted_R	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.389	0.000	-0.389	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.305	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.328	0.667	-0.328	-0.667
predicted_SO	0.500	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	0.000	1.500	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.278	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.222	-
predicted_AVG	0.188	-
predicted_BB	0.056	-
predicted_H	0.460	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.201	-
predicted_R	0.222	-
predicted_RBI	0.090	-
predicted_SLG	0.305	-
predicted_SO	0.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.319	0.041
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.210	-0.012
predicted_AVG	0.188	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.027	-0.029
predicted_H	0.552	0.092
predicted_HBP	0.046	-
predicted_HR	0.011	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.201	0.000
predicted_R	0.129	-0.093
predicted_RBI	0.104	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.305	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.493	-0.007

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.22), rates preserved: AVG=0.171 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.1875	0.1875	0.3125	0.1875	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.1250
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	6.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	6.000	0.1875	0.2121	0.2812	0.1875	0.0000	0.0312	0.0000	0.1875
season	0.20	18	-	58.000	11.000	5.000	1.000	7.000	4.000	1.000	9.000	0.1897	0.2131	0.3276	0.1897	0.0172	0.1207	0.0172	0.1552

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3410
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.2040
predicted_AVG	0.1879
predicted_BB	0.0110
predicted_H	0.6020
predicted_HBP	0.0460
predicted_HR	0.0110
predicted_OBP	0.2012
predicted_R	0.0790
predicted_RBI	0.1120
predicted_SLG	0.3046
predicted_SO	0.4900

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2780	0.3410	0.3190	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2220	3.2040	3.2103	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1880	0.1879	0.1879	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0560	0.0110	0.0267	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4600	0.6020	0.5523	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0460	0.0460	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0110	0.0106	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2010	0.2012	0.2011	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2220	0.0790	0.1290	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0900	0.1120	0.1043	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3050	0.3046	0.3047	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5000	0.4900	0.4935	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260503_MIL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	660688
playerID	660688
playerName	Keibert Ruiz
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	WAS
teamID	30

Jacob Young (696285) · BATTER · CF · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 29

All-history rows before 20260505: 29

System season_avg: 0.2270

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2273

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.138	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.138	0.000	-0.138	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.793	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.793	4.000	0.207	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.199	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.227	0.000	0.023	0.250
predicted_BB	0.172	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.172	0.000	-0.172	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_H	0.650	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.862	0.000	0.138	1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.069	0.000	-0.069	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.240	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.267	0.000	-0.017	0.250
predicted_R	0.379	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.379	0.000	0.621	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.483	0.000	-0.483	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.226	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.318	0.000	-0.068	0.250
predicted_SO	0.828	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.828	3.000	-0.828	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.138	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.793	-
predicted_AVG	0.199	-
predicted_BB	0.172	-
predicted_H	0.650	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.240	-
predicted_R	0.379	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.226	-
predicted_SO	0.828	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.089	-0.049
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.751	-0.042
predicted_AVG	0.199	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.187	0.015
predicted_H	0.709	0.058
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.013	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.240	-0.000
predicted_R	0.262	-0.117
predicted_RBI	0.448	0.038
predicted_SLG	0.226	0.000
predicted_SO	1.080	0.252

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.187 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	0.2105	0.2500	0.2105	0.2105	0.0000	0.1579	0.0526	0.3684
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	12.000	0.1667	0.2105	0.1944	0.1667	0.0000	0.0833	0.0556	0.3333
season	0.20	29	-	110.000	25.000	4.000	2.000	14.000	11.000	5.000	24.000	0.2273	0.2672	0.3182	0.2273	0.0182	0.1273	0.0454	0.2182

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0630
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7290
predicted_AVG	0.1985
predicted_BB	0.1950
predicted_H	0.7400
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.0140
predicted_OBP	0.2396
predicted_R	0.1990
predicted_RBI	0.4690
predicted_SLG	0.2264
predicted_SO	1.2160

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1380	0.0630	0.0892	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7930	3.7290	3.7514	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1990	0.1985	0.1987	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1720	0.1950	0.1870	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6500	0.7400	0.7085	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0140	0.0126	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2400	0.2396	0.2397	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3790	0.1990	0.2620	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.4690	0.4484	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2260	0.2264	0.2263	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8280	1.2160	1.0802	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.227

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260503_MIL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	696285
playerID	696285
playerName	Jacob Young
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	WAS
teamID	30

Jorbit Vivas (678391) · BATTER · 3B · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 21

All-history rows before 20260505: 21

System season_avg: 0.2700

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2698

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	0.857	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.215	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.270	0.000	-0.020	0.250
predicted_BB	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_H	0.530	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.810	0.000	0.190	1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.256	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.356	0.000	-0.106	0.250
predicted_R	0.571	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.571	0.000	-0.571	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.246	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.317	0.000	0.183	0.500
predicted_SO	0.429	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.215	-
predicted_BB	0.286	-
predicted_H	0.530	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.256	-
predicted_R	0.571	-
predicted_RBI	0.050	-
predicted_SLG	0.246	-
predicted_SO	0.429	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.114	-0.029
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.104	0.104
predicted_AVG	0.215	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.184	-0.102
predicted_H	0.627	0.097
predicted_HBP	0.065	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.256	-0.000
predicted_R	0.529	-0.042
predicted_RBI	0.060	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.246	0.000
predicted_SO	0.414	-0.015

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.10), rates preserved: AVG=0.202 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	0.1875	0.1875	0.1875	0.1875	0.0000	0.0000	0.1250
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	7.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	2.000	4.000	0.2188	0.2857	0.2812	0.2188	0.0312	0.0625	0.1250
season	0.20	21	-	63.000	17.000	3.000	3.000	12.000	6.000	9.000	0.2698	0.3562	0.3175	0.2698	0.0476	0.0952	0.1429

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0990
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.1600
predicted_AVG	0.2149
predicted_BB	0.1290
predicted_H	0.6790
predicted_HBP	0.0650
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.2556
predicted_R	0.5060
predicted_RBI	0.0650
predicted_SLG	0.2463
predicted_SO	0.4060

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.0990	0.1144	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.1600	3.1040	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2150	0.2149	0.2149	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2860	0.1290	0.1840	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5300	0.6790	0.6269	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0650	0.0650	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2560	0.2556	0.2557	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5710	0.5060	0.5288	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0500	0.0650	0.0597	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2460	0.2463	0.2462	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4290	0.4060	0.4141	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.27

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260503_MIL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	678391
playerID	678391
playerName	Jorbit Vivas
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	WAS
teamID	30

Nasim Nuñez (683083) · BATTER · 2B · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 29

All-history rows before 20260505: 29

System season_avg: 0.2240

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2245

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.034	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.379	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.379	3.000	0.621	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.319	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.224	0.667	0.276	-0.167
predicted_BB	0.483	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.483	0.000	-0.483	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.069	0.000	-0.069	0.000
predicted_H	0.870	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.759	2.000	1.241	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.429	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.327	0.667	0.173	-0.167
predicted_R	0.517	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.517	1.000	0.483	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.414	2.000	0.586	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.483	0.000	-0.483	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.321	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.235	0.667	0.265	-0.167
predicted_SO	0.759	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.759	0.000	-0.759	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.034	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.379	-
predicted_AVG	0.319	-
predicted_BB	0.483	-
predicted_H	0.870	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.429	-
predicted_R	0.517	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.321	-
predicted_SO	0.759	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.016	-0.018
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.146	-0.233
predicted_AVG	0.319	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.547	0.064
predicted_H	0.930	0.060
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.429	-0.000
predicted_R	0.604	0.087
predicted_RBI	0.491	0.031
predicted_SLG	0.321	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.635	-0.124

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.38), rates preserved: AVG=0.275 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	5.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	2.000	0.3571	0.4706	0.3571	0.3571	0.1429	0.2143	0.1429
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	10.000	0.000	7.000	5.000	6.000	7.000	0.3226	0.4324	0.3226	0.3226	0.2258	0.1935	0.2258
season	0.20	29	-	98.000	22.000	1.000	12.000	15.000	14.000	22.000	0.2245	0.3274	0.2347	0.2245	0.1225	0.1429	0.2245

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0060
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.0210
predicted_AVG	0.3185
predicted_BB	0.5820
predicted_H	0.9620
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.4286
predicted_R	0.6510
predicted_RBI	0.5070
predicted_SLG	0.3205
predicted_SO	0.5690

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0340	0.0060	0.0158	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3790	3.0210	3.1463	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3190	0.3185	0.3187	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4830	0.5820	0.5474	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8700	0.9620	0.9298	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4290	0.4286	0.4287	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5170	0.6510	0.6041	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.5070	0.4906	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3210	0.3205	0.3207	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7590	0.5690	0.6355	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.224

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260503_MIL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	683083
playerID	683083
playerName	Nasim Nuñez
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	WAS
teamID	30

Cade Cavalli (676917) · PITCHER · Starter · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 7

All-history rows before 20260505: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.857	2.000	1.143	1.000
predicted_IP	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.214	6.000	0.786	-1.000
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_SO	5.429	10.000	-0.429	-5.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 5.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	21.000	10.000	29.000	9.000	30.000	1.000	4.2857	1.8095	0.4762	1.3809	0.4286	1.4286	0.0476
last_10	0.35	7	30.667	13.000	37.000	14.000	38.000	1.000	3.8152	1.6630	0.4239	1.2065	0.4565	1.2391	0.0326
season	0.20	7	30.667	13.000	37.000	14.000	38.000	1.000	3.8152	1.6630	0.4239	1.2065	0.4565	1.2391	0.0326

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.9090
predicted_ER	1.9240
predicted_ERA	4.0269
predicted_H	5.5250
predicted_HR	0.1690
predicted_IP	4.3000
predicted_SO	5.6940
predicted_WHIP	1.7289

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	1.9090	2.2908	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	1.9240	2.3006	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.0269	4.0269	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	5.5250	4.9913	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1690	0.4598	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.0000	4.3000	4.5450	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	5.6940	5.4511	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.7289	1.7289	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.0
H	4
R	3
ER	3
BB	3
SO	5
HR	1
BF	22
Pitches	98

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	27
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	3.82
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	8
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	97
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	10
Pitching_Strikes	69
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260429_WAS@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	676917
playerID	676917
playerName	Cade Cavalli
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

Brad Lord (695418) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 11

All-history rows before 20260505: 11

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.909	1.000	-0.909	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.982	2.000	-0.982	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.455	2.000	-0.455	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	11.000	2.000	9.000	2.000	6.000	0.000	1.6364	1.0000	0.1818	0.8182	0.1818	0.5454	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	21.333	9.000	19.000	6.000	15.000	3.000	3.7969	1.1719	0.4219	0.8906	0.2812	0.7031	0.1406
season	0.20	11	23.667	10.000	23.000	6.000	16.000	3.000	3.8028	1.2254	0.4225	0.9718	0.2535	0.6761	0.1268

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5000
predicted_ER	0.6800
predicted_ERA	2.8259
predicted_H	1.8940
predicted_HR	0.1620
predicted_IP	2.1670
predicted_SO	1.3580
predicted_WHIP	1.1052

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5000	0.3250	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6800	0.4420	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.8259	2.8259	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.8940	1.2311	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1620	0.1053	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	2.1670	1.7586	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.3580	1.2327	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1052	1.1052	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	12
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.80
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	50
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	30
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260502_MIL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	695418
playerID	695418
playerName	Brad Lord
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

Gus Varland (681402) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 14

All-history rows before 20260505: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.357	1.000	-0.357	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.786	0.200	0.214	0.800
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.667	2.000	6.000	0.000	4.000	0.000	3.8571	1.2857	0.4286	1.2857	0.0000	0.8571	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.333	2.000	10.000	1.000	9.000	0.000	1.9286	1.1786	0.2143	1.0714	0.1071	0.9643	0.0000
season	0.20	14	13.333	5.000	15.000	3.000	14.000	1.000	3.3750	1.3500	0.3750	1.1250	0.2250	1.0500	0.0750

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.0770
predicted_ER	0.3210
predicted_ERA	3.0857
predicted_H	1.1040
predicted_HR	0.0140
predicted_IP	0.9370
predicted_SO	0.8750
predicted_WHIP	1.2611

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0770	0.0501	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3210	0.2087	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0857	3.0857	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.1040	1.0676	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0140	0.0091	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9370	0.9591	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.8750	1.2687	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2611	1.2611	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	20

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.38
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	9
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_MIL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	681402
playerID	681402
playerName	Gus Varland
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

PJ Poulin (676571) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 17

All-history rows before 20260505: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.412	0.000	-0.412	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.841	2.000	0.159	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.706	2.000	0.294	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.667	2.000	4.000	2.000	4.000	0.000	3.1765	1.0588	0.3529	0.7059	0.3529	0.7059	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.667	3.000	9.000	2.000	6.000	1.000	2.5312	1.0312	0.2812	0.8438	0.1875	0.5625	0.0938
season	0.20	17	17.333	7.000	14.000	9.000	12.000	3.000	3.6346	1.3269	0.4038	0.8077	0.5192	0.6923	0.1731

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3570
predicted_ER	0.3680
predicted_ERA	3.0423
predicted_H	0.8420
predicted_HR	0.0730
predicted_IP	1.0870
predicted_SO	0.7100
predicted_WHIP	1.1028

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3570	0.2321	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3680	0.2392	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.0423	3.0423	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8420	0.5473	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0730	0.0474	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0870	1.0566	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.7100	0.8115	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.1028	1.1028	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	8
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.63
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	36
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	23
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_MIL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	676571
playerID	676571
playerName	PJ Poulin
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

Richard Lovelady (663992) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team WAS

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 7

All-history rows before 20260505: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.800	0.200	0.200	0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	0.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	0.000	0.0000	1.7500	0.0000	1.2500	0.5000	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.333	2.000	9.000	6.000	9.000	0.000	1.7419	1.4516	0.1935	0.8710	0.5806	0.8710	0.0000
season	0.20	13	14.333	4.000	15.000	9.000	13.000	1.000	2.5116	1.6744	0.2791	1.0465	0.6279	0.9070	0.0698

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5220
predicted_ER	0.1160
predicted_ERA	1.1120
predicted_H	1.0140
predicted_HR	0.0130
predicted_IP	0.9420
predicted_SO	0.8820
predicted_WHIP	1.6304

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5220	0.3393	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1160	0.0754	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.1120	1.1120	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.0140	1.3591	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0130	0.0084	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9420	0.9623	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8820	0.9233	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.6304	1.6304	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.51
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_MIL@WAS
game_type	full
mlbID	663992
playerID	663992
playerName	Richard Lovelady
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	WAS
teamID	30

20260505_NYM@COL

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "confidence": 0.57325, "home_win_probability": 0.42674999999999996, "away_win_probability": 0.57325, "predicted_score_text": "NYM 5 - 4 COL", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "NYM 5 - 4 COL", "winner": "NYM"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "NYM 5 - 4 COL", "winner": "NYM"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Away Team: NYM

Bo Bichette (666182) · BATTER · DH · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 35

All-history rows before 20260505: 35

System season_avg: 0.2360

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2361

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.114	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	4.114	4.000	0.886	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.235	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.236	0.000	-0.236	0.000
predicted_BB	0.229	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.229	0.000	-0.229	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.870	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.971	0.000	-0.971	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.275	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_R	0.457	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.457	0.000	-0.457	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.277	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.312	0.000	-0.312	0.000
predicted_SO	0.857	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.857	1.000	-0.857	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.114	-
predicted_AVG	0.235	-
predicted_BB	0.229	-
predicted_H	0.870	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.275	-
predicted_R	0.457	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.277	-
predicted_SO	0.857	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.068	-0.075
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.091	-0.023
predicted_AVG	0.235	0.000
predicted_BB	0.237	0.008
predicted_H	0.928	0.058
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.045	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.275	-0.000
predicted_R	0.451	-0.006
predicted_RBI	0.274	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.277	0.000
predicted_SO	0.676	-0.181

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.11), rates preserved: AVG=0.226 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, BvP AVG=0.167)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 4.114

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.2381	0.2727	0.2381	0.2381	0.0000	0.0476	0.0476	0.1429
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	9.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	3.000	4.000	0.2308	0.2791	0.3077	0.2308	0.0256	0.0769	0.0769	0.1026
season	0.20	35	-	144.000	34.000	5.000	2.000	15.000	16.000	8.000	30.000	0.2361	0.2727	0.3125	0.2361	0.0139	0.1042	0.0556	0.2083

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0280
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.0780
predicted_AVG	0.2351
predicted_BB	0.2420
predicted_H	0.9590
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0480
predicted_OBP	0.2749
predicted_R	0.4480
predicted_RBI	0.2820
predicted_SLG	0.2773
predicted_SO	0.5780

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.0280	0.0682	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1140	4.0780	4.0906	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2350	0.2351	0.2351	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2290	0.2420	0.2374	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8700	0.9590	0.9278	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0480	0.0452	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2750	0.2749	0.2749	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4570	0.4480	0.4512	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.2820	0.2743	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2770	0.2773	0.2772	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8570	0.5780	0.6756	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.236

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260504_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	666182
playerID	666182
playerName	Bo Bichette
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	NYM
teamID	18

Marcus Semien (543760) · BATTER · C · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 35

All-history rows before 20260505: 35

System season_avg: 0.2080

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2080

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.571	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.571	3.000	1.429	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.136	0.600	0.600	Hitting_AVG	0.208	0.000	0.392	0.600
predicted_BB	0.229	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.229	0.000	-0.229	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_H	0.450	3.000	3.000	Hitting_H	0.743	0.000	2.257	3.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.154	0.600	0.600	Hitting_OBP	0.259	0.000	0.341	0.600
predicted_R	0.229	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.229	0.000	0.771	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.314	0.000	-0.314	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.114	0.000	-0.114	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.149	0.600	0.600	Hitting_SLG	0.272	0.000	0.328	0.600
predicted_SO	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.800	1.000	0.200	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.571	-
predicted_AVG	0.136	-
predicted_BB	0.229	-
predicted_H	0.450	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.154	-
predicted_R	0.229	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.149	-
predicted_SO	0.800	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.070	-0.073
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.667	0.096
predicted_AVG	0.136	0.000
predicted_BB	0.134	-0.095
predicted_H	0.487	0.037
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.007	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.154	0.000
predicted_R	0.214	-0.015
predicted_RBI	0.334	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.149	0.000
predicted_SO	0.800	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.133 HR/AB=0.002

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, BvP AVG=0.375)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	0.1053	0.1053	0.1053	0.1053	0.0000	0.1053	0.0000	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	8.000	0.1351	0.1579	0.1351	0.1351	0.0000	0.0811	0.0270	0.2162
season	0.20	35	-	125.000	26.000	5.000	1.000	11.000	8.000	8.000	28.000	0.2080	0.2593	0.2720	0.2080	0.0080	0.0880	0.0640	0.2240

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0300
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7190
predicted_AVG	0.1363
predicted_BB	0.0830
predicted_H	0.5070
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0060
predicted_OBP	0.1545
predicted_R	0.2060
predicted_RBI	0.3470
predicted_SLG	0.1491
predicted_SO	0.8000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.0300	0.0695	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5710	3.7190	3.6672	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1360	0.1363	0.1362	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2290	0.0830	0.1341	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4500	0.5070	0.4870	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0060	0.0074	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1540	0.1545	0.1543	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2290	0.2060	0.2140	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.3470	0.3341	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1490	0.1491	0.1491	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8000	0.8000	0.8000	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	3
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.208

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260504_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	543760
playerID	543760
playerName	Marcus Semien
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	NYM
teamID	18

Francisco Alvarez (682626) · BATTER · 1B · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 27

All-history rows before 20260505: 27

System season_avg: 0.2170

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2174

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	1.000	-0.111	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.407	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.407	3.000	0.593	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.157	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.217	0.333	0.033	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.333	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.460	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.741	1.000	0.259	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.148	0.000	-0.148	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.180	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.298	0.333	0.102	0.067
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.296	0.000	-0.296	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.231	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.380	0.667	-0.130	-0.417
predicted_SO	0.852	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.852	1.000	0.148	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.407	-
predicted_AVG	0.157	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.460	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.180	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.200	-
predicted_SLG	0.231	-
predicted_SO	0.852	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.157	0.045
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.670	0.263
predicted_AVG	0.157	0.000
predicted_BB	0.188	-0.145
predicted_H	0.550	0.090
predicted_HBP	0.017	-
predicted_HR	0.032	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.180	-0.000
predicted_R	0.322	-0.011
predicted_RBI	0.237	0.037
predicted_SLG	0.231	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.030	0.178

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.150 HR/AB=0.009

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, BvP AVG=0.143)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	6.000	0.1500	0.1500	0.2000	0.1500	0.0000	0.0500	0.0000	0.3000
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	12.000	0.1316	0.1500	0.1842	0.1316	0.0000	0.0790	0.0263	0.3158
season	0.20	27	-	92.000	20.000	3.000	4.000	8.000	9.000	9.000	23.000	0.2174	0.2981	0.3804	0.2174	0.0435	0.0870	0.0978	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1810
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8110
predicted_AVG	0.1570
predicted_BB	0.1100
predicted_H	0.5990
predicted_HBP	0.0170
predicted_HR	0.0330
predicted_OBP	0.1796
predicted_R	0.3160
predicted_RBI	0.2570
predicted_SLG	0.2306
predicted_SO	1.1260

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.1810	0.1565	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4070	3.8110	3.6696	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1570	0.1570	0.1570	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.1100	0.1880	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4600	0.5990	0.5504	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0170	0.0170	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0330	0.0319	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1800	0.1796	0.1797	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.3160	0.3220	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2000	0.2570	0.2370	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2310	0.2306	0.2307	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8520	1.1260	1.0301	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.217

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260504_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	682626
playerID	682626
playerName	Francisco Alvarez
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	NYM
teamID	18

Brett Baty (683146) · BATTER · 2B · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 27

All-history rows before 20260505: 27

System season_avg: 0.2150

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2151

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.148	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.148	0.000	-0.148	0.000
predicted_3B	0.037	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_AB	3.444	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.444	4.000	1.556	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.173	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.215	0.000	-0.215	0.000
predicted_BB	0.259	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.259	0.000	-0.259	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_H	0.490	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.741	0.000	-0.741	0.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.337	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.275	0.000	-0.275	0.000
predicted_R	0.407	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.407	0.000	0.593	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.220	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.407	0.000	0.593	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.074	0.000	-0.074	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.236	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.312	0.000	-0.312	0.000
predicted_SO	1.111	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.111	1.000	0.889	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.148	-
predicted_3B	0.037	-
predicted_AB	3.444	-
predicted_AVG	0.173	-
predicted_BB	0.259	-
predicted_H	0.490	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.337	-
predicted_R	0.407	-
predicted_RBI	0.220	-
predicted_SLG	0.236	-
predicted_SO	1.111	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.091	-0.057
predicted_3B	0.018	-0.019
predicted_AB	3.200	-0.244
predicted_AVG	0.173	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.508	0.249
predicted_H	0.517	0.027
predicted_HBP	0.139	-
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.337	0.000
predicted_R	0.363	-0.044
predicted_RBI	0.233	0.013
predicted_SLG	0.236	0.000
predicted_SO	1.034	-0.077

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.44), rates preserved: AVG=0.150 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, BvP AVG=0.167)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	0.1429	0.3684	0.1429	0.1429	0.0000	0.0000	0.2857	0.3571
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	5.000	6.000	9.000	0.1875	0.3333	0.3125	0.1875	0.0312	0.1562	0.1875	0.2812
season	0.20	27	-	93.000	20.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	11.000	11.000	7.000	30.000	0.2151	0.2745	0.3118	0.2150	0.0107	0.1183	0.0753	0.3226

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0600
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.0690
predicted_AVG	0.1729
predicted_BB	0.6420
predicted_H	0.5310
predicted_HBP	0.1390
predicted_HR	0.0400
predicted_OBP	0.3373
predicted_R	0.3390
predicted_RBI	0.2400
predicted_SLG	0.2360
predicted_SO	0.9930

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1480	0.0600	0.0908	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0370	0.0070	0.0175	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4440	3.0690	3.2002	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1730	0.1729	0.1729	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2590	0.6420	0.5080	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4900	0.5310	0.5167	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1390	0.1390	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0400	0.0400	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3370	0.3373	0.3372	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4070	0.3390	0.3628	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2200	0.2400	0.2330	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2360	0.2360	0.2360	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1110	0.9930	1.0343	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.215

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260504_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	683146
playerID	683146
playerName	Brett Baty
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	NYM
teamID	18

Mark Vientos (668901) · BATTER · 3B · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 24

All-history rows before 20260505: 24

System season_avg: 0.2410

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2410

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	0.833	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.458	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.458	4.000	0.542	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.276	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.241	0.250	0.259	0.250
predicted_BB	0.250	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.860	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.833	1.000	1.167	1.000
predicted_HR	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.344	0.600	0.600	Hitting_OBP	0.289	0.250	0.311	0.350
predicted_R	0.417	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.417	0.000	0.583	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.910	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.583	2.000	0.417	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.597	0.750	0.750	Hitting_SLG	0.434	0.250	0.316	0.500
predicted_SO	0.917	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.917	0.000	0.083	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.458	-
predicted_AVG	0.276	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.860	-
predicted_HR	0.250	-
predicted_OBP	0.344	-
predicted_R	0.417	-
predicted_RBI	0.910	-
predicted_SLG	0.597	-
predicted_SO	0.917	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.241	0.074
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.487	0.029
predicted_AVG	0.276	0.000
predicted_BB	0.328	0.078
predicted_H	0.930	0.070
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.270	0.020
predicted_OBP	0.344	0.000
predicted_R	0.522	0.105
predicted_RBI	0.981	0.071
predicted_SLG	0.597	0.000
predicted_SO	0.961	0.044

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.49), rates preserved: AVG=0.267 HR/AB=0.077

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, BvP AVG=0.800)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	5.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	0.2778	0.3500	0.7222	0.2778	0.1111	0.3889	0.1111	0.2778
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	10.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	4.000	4.000	10.000	0.2941	0.3684	0.5294	0.2941	0.0588	0.2353	0.1177	0.2941
season	0.20	24	-	83.000	20.000	4.000	4.000	14.000	10.000	6.000	22.000	0.2410	0.2889	0.4337	0.2410	0.0482	0.1687	0.0723	0.2651

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2810
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5020
predicted_AVG	0.2761
predicted_BB	0.3700
predicted_H	0.9670
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.2810
predicted_OBP	0.3442
predicted_R	0.5790
predicted_RBI	1.0190
predicted_SLG	0.5970
predicted_SO	0.9840

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.2810	0.2411	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4580	3.5020	3.4866	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2760	0.2761	0.2761	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.3700	0.3280	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8600	0.9670	0.9296	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2500	0.2810	0.2702	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3440	0.3442	0.3441	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4170	0.5790	0.5223	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.9100	1.0190	0.9808	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5970	0.5970	0.5970	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9170	0.9840	0.9606	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.241

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260504_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	668901
playerID	668901
playerName	Mark Vientos
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	NYM
teamID	18

Carson Benge (701807) · BATTER · SS · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 28

All-history rows before 20260505: 28

System season_avg: 0.2000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.107	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.107	0.000	-0.107	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.393	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.393	2.000	0.607	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.227	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.200	0.500	-0.200	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.357	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.357	1.000	0.643	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.710	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.679	1.000	-0.679	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.107	1.000	-0.107	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.320	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.276	0.667	-0.076	-0.467
predicted_R	0.429	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.429	1.000	-0.429	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.286	1.000	-0.286	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.447	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.326	2.000	-0.326	-2.000
predicted_SO	0.786	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.786	0.000	-0.786	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.107	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.393	-
predicted_AVG	0.227	-
predicted_BB	0.357	-
predicted_H	0.710	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.320	-
predicted_R	0.429	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.447	-
predicted_SO	0.786	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.156	0.049
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.338	-0.055
predicted_AVG	0.227	0.000
predicted_BB	0.418	0.061
predicted_H	0.737	0.027
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.178	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.320	0.000
predicted_R	0.541	0.112
predicted_RBI	0.404	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.447	0.000
predicted_SO	0.728	-0.058

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.39), rates preserved: AVG=0.217 HR/AB=0.052

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	0.1875	0.3158	0.4375	0.1875	0.0625	0.1250	0.1875	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	10.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	7.000	3.000	5.000	0.2941	0.3514	0.5294	0.2941	0.0588	0.1471	0.0882	0.1471
season	0.20	28	-	95.000	19.000	3.000	3.000	8.000	12.000	10.000	22.000	0.2000	0.2762	0.3263	0.2000	0.0316	0.0842	0.1053	0.2316

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1820
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.3090
predicted_AVG	0.2273
predicted_BB	0.4510
predicted_H	0.7520
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1820
predicted_OBP	0.3203
predicted_R	0.6010
predicted_RBI	0.4120
predicted_SLG	0.4474
predicted_SO	0.6960

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1070	0.1820	0.1557	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3930	3.3090	3.3384	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2270	0.2273	0.2272	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3570	0.4510	0.4181	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7100	0.7520	0.7373	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1820	0.1778	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3200	0.3203	0.3202	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4290	0.6010	0.5408	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.4120	0.4043	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4470	0.4474	0.4473	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7860	0.6960	0.7275	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.2

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260504_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	701807
playerID	701807
playerName	Carson Benge
pos	OF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	NYM
teamID	18

MJ Melendez (669004) · BATTER · LF · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 12

All-history rows before 20260505: 12

System season_avg: 0.3240

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3235

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	2.000	2.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	1.750	2.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.833	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	2.833	3.000	2.167	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.319	0.400	0.400	Hitting_AVG	0.324	0.000	0.076	0.400
predicted_BB	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_H	0.680	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.917	0.000	1.083	2.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.403	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.395	0.000	0.005	0.400
predicted_R	0.333	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.560	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.586	0.800	0.800	Hitting_SLG	0.588	0.000	0.212	0.800
predicted_SO	1.083	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.083	2.000	-0.083	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.833	-
predicted_AVG	0.319	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.680	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.403	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.560	-
predicted_SLG	0.586	-
predicted_SO	1.083	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.138	-0.112
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.618	-0.215
predicted_AVG	0.319	0.000
predicted_BB	0.225	-0.025
predicted_H	0.757	0.077
predicted_HBP	0.149	-
predicted_HR	0.188	0.017
predicted_OBP	0.403	0.000
predicted_R	0.284	-0.049
predicted_RBI	0.625	0.065
predicted_SLG	0.586	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.980	-0.103

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.267 HR/AB=0.066

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, BvP AVG=0.100)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	2.000	2.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	2.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	11.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	0.3636	0.4615	0.6364	0.3636	0.0909	0.3636	0.0909	0.3636
last_10	0.35	10	-	27.000	7.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	2.000	10.000	0.2593	0.3333	0.5185	0.2593	0.0741	0.1852	0.0741	0.3704
season	0.20	12	-	34.000	11.000	3.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	3.000	13.000	0.3235	0.3947	0.5882	0.3235	0.0588	0.1765	0.0882	0.3824

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0770
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.5020
predicted_AVG	0.3191
predicted_BB	0.2110
predicted_H	0.7980
predicted_HBP	0.1490
predicted_HR	0.1970
predicted_OBP	0.4033
predicted_R	0.2580
predicted_RBI	0.6600
predicted_SLG	0.5855
predicted_SO	0.9250

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.0770	0.1376	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8330	2.5020	2.6178	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3190	0.3191	0.3191	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.2110	0.2246	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6800	0.7980	0.7567	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1490	0.1490	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1970	0.1875	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4030	0.4033	0.4032	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.2580	0.2843	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5600	0.6600	0.6250	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5860	0.5855	0.5857	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0830	0.9250	0.9803	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	2
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.324

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260504_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	669004
playerID	669004
playerName	MJ Melendez
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	NYM
teamID	18

Juan Soto (665742) · BATTER · CF · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 19

All-history rows before 20260505: 19

System season_avg: 0.2920

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2917

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.211	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.211	0.000	0.789	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.789	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.789	3.000	0.211	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.256	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.292	0.000	-0.042	0.250
predicted_BB	0.684	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.684	1.000	0.316	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_H	0.750	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.105	0.000	-0.105	1.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.158	0.000	-0.158	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.382	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.400	0.250	0.000	0.150
predicted_R	0.474	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.474	1.000	0.526	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.150	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.421	0.000	1.579	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.053	0.000	-0.053	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.472	0.000	0.028	0.500
predicted_SO	0.737	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.737	1.000	-0.737	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.211	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.789	-
predicted_AVG	0.256	-
predicted_BB	0.684	-
predicted_H	0.750	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.382	-
predicted_R	0.474	-
predicted_RBI	0.150	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.737	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.205	-0.006
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.691	-0.098
predicted_AVG	0.256	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.722	0.038
predicted_H	0.867	0.117
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.094	0.014
predicted_OBP	0.382	0.000
predicted_R	0.600	0.126
predicted_RBI	0.174	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.395	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.888	0.151

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.79), rates preserved: AVG=0.229 HR/AB=0.025

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=13.0, BvP AVG=0.154)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	4.000	6.000	0.2222	0.3636	0.2778	0.2222	0.0000	0.0000	0.2222	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	10.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	6.000	7.000	8.000	0.2778	0.3953	0.5000	0.2778	0.0556	0.0833	0.1944	0.2222
season	0.20	19	-	72.000	21.000	4.000	3.000	8.000	9.000	13.000	14.000	0.2917	0.4000	0.4722	0.2917	0.0417	0.1111	0.1806	0.1944

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2020
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6380
predicted_AVG	0.2556
predicted_BB	0.7430
predicted_H	0.9300
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1010
predicted_OBP	0.3820
predicted_R	0.6670
predicted_RBI	0.1870
predicted_SLG	0.3945
predicted_SO	0.9700

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2110	0.2020	0.2051	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7890	3.6380	3.6909	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2560	0.2556	0.2557	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6840	0.7430	0.7224	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7500	0.9300	0.8670	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.1010	0.0936	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3820	0.3820	0.3820	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4740	0.6670	0.5995	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1500	0.1870	0.1741	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3945	0.3947	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7370	0.9700	0.8884	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.292

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260504_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	665742
playerID	665742
playerName	Juan Soto
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	NYM
teamID	18

Tyrone Taylor (621438) · BATTER · RF · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 15

All-history rows before 20260505: 15

System season_avg: 0.2270

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2273

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.067	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.933	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	2.933	4.000	1.067	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.205	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.227	0.000	0.023	0.250
predicted_BB	0.133	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.133	0.000	0.867	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.490	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.239	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.261	0.000	0.139	0.400
predicted_R	0.067	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.267	0.000	-0.267	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.255	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.318	0.000	-0.068	0.250
predicted_SO	0.400	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.400	0.000	0.600	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.067	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.933	-
predicted_AVG	0.205	-
predicted_BB	0.133	-
predicted_H	0.490	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.239	-
predicted_R	0.067	-
predicted_RBI	0.200	-
predicted_SLG	0.255	-
predicted_SO	0.400	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.033	-0.034
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.212	0.279
predicted_AVG	0.205	0.000
predicted_BB	0.144	0.011
predicted_H	0.620	0.130
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.047	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.239	0.000
predicted_R	0.057	-0.010
predicted_RBI	0.257	0.057
predicted_SLG	0.255	0.000
predicted_SO	0.425	0.025

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.21), rates preserved: AVG=0.193 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.1667	0.2105	0.1667	0.1667	0.0000	0.0556	0.0556	0.1111
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	8.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.2424	0.2647	0.3333	0.2424	0.0303	0.1212	0.0303	0.1515
season	0.20	15	-	44.000	10.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	0.2273	0.2609	0.3182	0.2273	0.0227	0.0909	0.0454	0.1364

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0150
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.3620
predicted_AVG	0.2053
predicted_BB	0.1500
predicted_H	0.6900
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0510
predicted_OBP	0.2395
predicted_R	0.0510
predicted_RBI	0.2880
predicted_SLG	0.2553
predicted_SO	0.4380

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0670	0.0150	0.0332	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.9330	3.3620	3.2119	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2050	0.2053	0.2052	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1330	0.1500	0.1441	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4900	0.6900	0.6200	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0510	0.0471	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2390	0.2395	0.2393	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0670	0.0510	0.0566	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2000	0.2880	0.2572	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2550	0.2553	0.2552	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4000	0.4380	0.4247	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.227

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260503_NYM@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	621438
playerID	621438
playerName	Tyrone Taylor
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	NYM
teamID	18

Freddy Peralta (642547) · PITCHER · Starter · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 7

All-history rows before 20260505: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.143	1.000	0.857	2.000
predicted_IP	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.243	6.000	-2.243	-3.000
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_SO	6.000	6.000	-3.000	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 3.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	28.000	10.000	21.000	14.000	28.000	2.000	3.2143	1.2500	0.3571	0.7500	0.5000	1.0000	0.0714
last_10	0.35	7	38.333	15.000	30.000	16.000	42.000	4.000	3.5217	1.2000	0.3913	0.7826	0.4174	1.0957	0.1043
season	0.20	7	38.333	15.000	30.000	16.000	42.000	4.000	3.5217	1.2000	0.3913	0.7826	0.4174	1.0957	0.1043

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.5150
predicted_ER	2.0800
predicted_ERA	3.3834
predicted_H	4.2480
predicted_HR	0.4950
predicted_IP	5.5320
predicted_SO	5.8230
predicted_WHIP	1.2225

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	6.0000	2.5150	3.7348	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	2.0800	2.4020	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.3834	3.3834	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	4.2480	3.4612	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.4950	0.3217	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.0000	5.5320	4.6458	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	5.8230	4.8350	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2225	1.2225	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.0
H	2
R	3
ER	3
BB	6
SO	3
HR	0
BF	18
Pitches	95

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	25
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	3.52
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	90
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	6
Pitching_Strikes	56
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260430_WAS@NYM
game_type	full
mlbID	642547
playerID	642547
playerName	Freddy Peralta
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Brooks Raley (548384) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 14

All-history rows before 20260505: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.771	1.000	0.229	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.143	2.000	-1.143	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.667	0.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	0.000	0.0000	0.6429	0.0000	0.4286	0.2143	1.5000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	11.000	1.000	2.0000	1.1111	0.2222	0.6667	0.4444	1.2222	0.1111
season	0.20	14	12.667	2.000	7.000	4.000	16.000	1.000	1.4211	0.8684	0.1579	0.5526	0.3158	1.2632	0.0790

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2890
predicted_ER	0.1000
predicted_ERA	0.9842
predicted_H	0.4920
predicted_HR	0.0500
predicted_IP	0.9160
predicted_SO	1.2410
predicted_WHIP	0.8519

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2890	0.1878	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1000	0.0650	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.9842	0.9842	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.4920	0.3198	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0500	0.0325	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9160	0.9454	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.2410	0.8067	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8519	0.8519	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.42
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_NYM@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	548384
playerID	548384
playerName	Brooks Raley
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Craig Kimbrel (518886) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 8

All-history rows before 20260505: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.800	1.000	0.200	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.125	1.000	0.875	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.333	3.000	4.000	2.000	7.000	6.2308	1.3846	0.6923	0.9231	0.4615	1.6154
last_10	0.35	8	7.333	3.000	7.000	3.000	9.000	3.6818	1.3636	0.4091	0.9546	0.4091	1.2273
season	0.20	8	7.333	3.000	7.000	3.000	9.000	3.6818	1.3636	0.4091	0.9546	0.4091	1.2273

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3870
predicted_ER	0.4800
predicted_ERA	4.8289
predicted_H	0.8410
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	0.8940
predicted_SO	1.2540
predicted_WHIP	1.3731

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3870	0.2515	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4800	0.3120	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.8289	4.8289	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8410	0.5466	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.8940	0.9311	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.2540	1.5151	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3731	1.3731	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.68
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	518886
playerID	518886
playerName	Craig Kimbrel
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Devin Williams (642207) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 13

All-history rows before 20260505: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.615	0.000	-0.615
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.792	1.000	0.208
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.385	1.000	-0.385

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.667	1.000	4.000	0.000	7.000	0.000	1.9286	0.8571	0.2143	0.8571	0.0000	1.5000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	6.000	13.000	2.000	15.000	1.000	6.0000	1.6667	0.6667	1.4444	0.2222	1.6667	0.1111
season	0.20	12	11.000	6.000	14.000	3.000	18.000	1.000	4.9091	1.5455	0.5454	1.2727	0.2727	1.6364	0.0909

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1220
predicted_ER	0.4030
predicted_ERA	3.9497
predicted_H	1.0520
predicted_HR	0.0520
predicted_IP	0.9180
predicted_SO	1.4560
predicted_WHIP	1.2781

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1220	0.0793	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4030	0.2620	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.9497	3.9497	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.0520	1.3838	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0520	0.0338	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9180	0.9467	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.4560	1.2964	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2781	1.2781	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	6.55
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	8
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	642207
playerID	642207
playerName	Devin Williams
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Huascar Brazobán (623211) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 15

All-history rows before 20260505: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.847	1.000	0.153	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.867	0.000	0.133	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	3.0000	0.6667	0.3333	0.5000	0.1667	0.5000	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	11.333	2.000	9.000	3.000	10.000	1.000	1.5882	1.0588	0.1765	0.7941	0.2647	0.8823	0.0882
season	0.20	15	16.667	2.000	11.000	3.000	13.000	1.000	1.0800	0.8400	0.1200	0.6600	0.1800	0.7800	0.0600

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2360
predicted_ER	0.2730
predicted_ERA	2.1219
predicted_H	0.7360
predicted_HR	0.1370
predicted_IP	1.1590
predicted_SO	0.7990
predicted_WHIP	0.8386

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2360	0.1534	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2730	0.1775	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.1219	2.1219	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7360	0.4784	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1370	0.0891	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.1590	1.1034	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.7990	0.8694	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8386	0.8386	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	9

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.08
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	11
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	623211
playerID	623211
playerName	Huascar Brazobán
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Luke Weaver (596133) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 14

All-history rows before 20260505: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.571	0.000	0.429	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.907	1.100	0.093	-0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.929	3.000	-0.929	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.667	2.000	5.000	1.000	9.000	1.000	3.1765	1.0588	0.3529	0.8823	0.1765	1.5882	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	10.333	8.000	10.000	2.000	11.000	2.000	6.9677	1.1613	0.7742	0.9677	0.1935	1.0645	0.1935
season	0.20	14	14.333	8.000	11.000	4.000	13.000	2.000	5.0233	1.0465	0.5581	0.7674	0.2791	0.9070	0.1395

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2180
predicted_ER	0.5830
predicted_ERA	4.8728
predicted_H	0.9570
predicted_HR	0.1880
predicted_IP	1.0760
predicted_SO	1.3660
predicted_WHIP	1.0922

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2180	0.1417	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.5830	0.7289	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.8728	4.8728	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.9570	0.9720	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1880	0.4722	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0760	1.0494	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.3660	0.8879	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0922	1.0922	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	1
BF	4
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.02
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_NYM@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	596133
playerID	596133
playerName	Luke Weaver
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Tobias Myers (668964) · PITCHER · Reliever · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 10

All-history rows before 20260505: 10

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	2.060	2.200	-1.060	-1.200
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.600	0.000	-0.600	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	11.000	1.000	9.000	3.000	9.000	1.000	0.8182	1.0909	0.0909	0.8182	0.2727	0.8182	0.0909
last_10	0.35	10	22.000	5.000	15.000	4.000	16.000	2.000	2.0455	0.8636	0.2273	0.6818	0.1818	0.7273	0.0909
season	0.20	10	22.000	5.000	15.000	4.000	16.000	2.000	2.0455	0.8636	0.2273	0.6818	0.1818	0.7273	0.0909

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4900
predicted_ER	0.3650
predicted_ERA	1.4932
predicted_H	1.6350
predicted_HR	0.2000
predicted_IP	2.2000
predicted_SO	1.6900
predicted_WHIP	0.9659

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4900	0.3185	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3650	0.2372	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.4932	1.4932	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.6350	1.7628	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2000	0.1300	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	2.2000	1.7800	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.6900	1.4485	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9659	0.9659	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	12
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.05
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.2
Pitching_Pitches	36
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	23
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260502_NYM@LAA
game_type	full
mlbID	668964
playerID	668964
playerName	Tobias Myers
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Austin Warren (681810) · PITCHER · Reliever · Team NYM

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 5

All-history rows before 20260505: 5

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.080	2.000	-0.080	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.600	3.000	-0.600	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.333	1.000	5.000	1.000	8.000	1.000	1.4211	0.9474	0.1579	0.7895	0.1579	1.2632	0.1579
last_10	0.35	5	6.333	1.000	5.000	1.000	8.000	1.000	1.4211	0.9474	0.1579	0.7895	0.1579	1.2632	0.1579
season	0.20	5	6.333	1.000	5.000	1.000	8.000	1.000	1.4211	0.9474	0.1579	0.7895	0.1579	1.2632	0.1579

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2000
predicted_ER	0.2000
predicted_ERA	1.4211
predicted_H	1.0000
predicted_HR	0.2000
predicted_IP	1.2670
predicted_SO	1.6000
predicted_WHIP	0.9474

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2000	0.1300	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2000	0.1300	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.4211	1.4211	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0000	0.6500	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2000	0.1300	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.2670	1.1736	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.6000	1.3900	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9474	0.9474	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	10

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.42
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	24
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	17
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	681810
playerID	681810
playerName	Austin Warren
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYM
teamID	18

Home Team: COL

Jake McCarthy (664983) · BATTER · DH · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 21

All-history rows before 20260505: 21

System season_avg: 0.2620

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2623

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.238	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.238	0.000	-0.238	0.000
predicted_3B	0.095	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.095	1.000	-0.095	-1.000
predicted_AB	2.905	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	2.905	3.000	1.095	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.334	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.262	0.333	-0.262	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.238	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.238	1.000	0.762	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.095	0.000	-0.095	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.762	1.000	-0.762	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.405	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.328	0.500	-0.128	-0.300
predicted_R	0.238	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.238	1.000	0.762	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.286	0.000	0.714	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.238	0.000	-0.238	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.520	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.410	1.000	-0.410	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.571	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.571	0.000	0.429	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.238	-
predicted_3B	0.095	-
predicted_AB	2.905	-
predicted_AVG	0.334	-
predicted_BB	0.238	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.405	-
predicted_R	0.238	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.520	-
predicted_SO	0.571	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.241	0.003
predicted_3B	0.128	0.033
predicted_AB	2.873	-0.032
predicted_AVG	0.334	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.300	0.062
predicted_H	0.935	0.035
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.405	-0.000
predicted_R	0.345	0.107
predicted_RBI	0.335	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.520	0.000
predicted_SO	0.482	-0.089

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.90), rates preserved: AVG=0.322 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, BvP AVG=0.167)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	0.3571	0.4375	0.5714	0.3571	0.1429	0.1429	0.1429
last_10	0.35	10	-	29.000	10.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	3.000	4.000	0.3448	0.4062	0.5172	0.3448	0.1035	0.1035	0.1379
season	0.20	21	-	61.000	16.000	5.000	2.000	6.000	5.000	5.000	12.000	0.2623	0.3284	0.4098	0.2623	0.0984	0.0820	0.1967

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2420
predicted_3B	0.1450
predicted_AB	2.8560
predicted_AVG	0.3338
predicted_BB	0.3340
predicted_H	0.9540
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.4047
predicted_R	0.4030
predicted_RBI	0.3430
predicted_SLG	0.5201
predicted_SO	0.4340

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2380	0.2420	0.2406	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0950	0.1450	0.1275	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.9050	2.8560	2.8731	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3340	0.3338	0.3339	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2380	0.3340	0.3004	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	0.9540	0.9351	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4050	0.4047	0.4048	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2380	0.4030	0.3453	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.3430	0.3350	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5200	0.5201	0.5201	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5710	0.4340	0.4819	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.262

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	1
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260503_ATL@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	664983
playerID	664983
playerName	Jake McCarthy
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	COL
teamID	9

TJ Rumfield (681198) · BATTER · C · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 33

All-history rows before 20260505: 33

System season_avg: 0.2560

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2560

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_3B	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_AB	3.788	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.788	4.000	0.212	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.256	0.000	-0.006	0.250
predicted_BB	0.333	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.850	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.970	0.000	0.030	1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.282	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.319	0.000	0.081	0.400
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.545	0.000	-0.545	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.381	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.392	0.000	-0.142	0.250
predicted_SO	0.697	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.697	0.000	1.303	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.030	-
predicted_AB	3.788	-
predicted_AVG	0.246	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.850	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.282	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.381	-
predicted_SO	0.697	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.135	-0.047
predicted_3B	0.014	-0.016
predicted_AB	3.957	0.169
predicted_AVG	0.246	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.232	-0.101
predicted_H	0.944	0.094
predicted_HBP	0.042	-
predicted_HR	0.134	0.014
predicted_OBP	0.282	0.000
predicted_R	0.367	0.034
predicted_RBI	0.491	0.051
predicted_SLG	0.381	0.000
predicted_SO	0.728	0.031

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.96), rates preserved: AVG=0.239 HR/AB=0.034

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	0.2381	0.2381	0.3810	0.2381	0.0476	0.1429	0.0000	0.1905
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	10.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	7.000	0.2500	0.3182	0.3750	0.2500	0.0250	0.1000	0.0750	0.1750
season	0.20	33	-	125.000	32.000	6.000	1.000	3.000	18.000	11.000	11.000	23.000	0.2560	0.3188	0.3920	0.2560	0.0240	0.1440	0.0880	0.1840

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1100
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	4.0480
predicted_AVG	0.2458
predicted_BB	0.1770
predicted_H	0.9950
predicted_HBP	0.0420
predicted_HR	0.1420
predicted_OBP	0.2823
predicted_R	0.3860
predicted_RBI	0.5180
predicted_SLG	0.3811
predicted_SO	0.7440

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.1100	0.1352	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0300	0.0060	0.0144	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7880	4.0480	3.9570	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2460	0.2458	0.2459	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.1770	0.2316	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8500	0.9950	0.9443	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0420	0.0420	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1420	0.1343	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2820	0.2823	0.2822	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.3860	0.3674	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.5180	0.4907	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3810	0.3811	0.3811	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6970	0.7440	0.7276	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.256

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260504_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	681198
playerID	681198
playerName	TJ Rumfield
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	COL
teamID	9

Willi Castro (650489) · BATTER · 1B · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 25

All-history rows before 20260505: 25

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.680	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.680	4.000	1.320	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.240	0.200	0.200	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.250	-0.050	-0.050
predicted_BB	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.280	0.000	-0.280	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.080	0.000	-0.080	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.920	1.000	0.080	0.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.270	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.310	0.250	-0.110	-0.050
predicted_R	0.520	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.520	1.000	-0.520	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.440	0.000	-0.440	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.080	0.000	-0.080	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.267	0.200	0.200	Hitting_SLG	0.337	0.250	-0.137	-0.050
predicted_SO	1.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.320	1.000	-1.320	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.680	-
predicted_AVG	0.240	-
predicted_BB	0.280	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.270	-
predicted_R	0.520	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.267	-
predicted_SO	1.320	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.122	-0.078
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.837	0.157
predicted_AVG	0.240	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.209	-0.071
predicted_H	0.891	0.091
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.009	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.270	0.000
predicted_R	0.429	-0.091
predicted_RBI	0.275	0.025
predicted_SLG	0.267	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.213	-0.107

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.84), rates preserved: AVG=0.232 HR/AB=0.002

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, BvP AVG=0.143)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	6.000	0.1905	0.1905	0.1905	0.1905	0.0000	0.0476	0.0000	0.2857
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	11.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	3.000	10.000	0.2973	0.3500	0.3243	0.2973	0.0000	0.0811	0.0811	0.2703
season	0.20	25	-	92.000	23.000	5.000	1.000	11.000	13.000	7.000	33.000	0.2500	0.3100	0.3370	0.2500	0.0109	0.1196	0.0761	0.3587

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0800
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9210
predicted_AVG	0.2398
predicted_BB	0.1710
predicted_H	0.9400
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.0090
predicted_OBP	0.2702
predicted_R	0.3800
predicted_RBI	0.2890
predicted_SLG	0.2666
predicted_SO	1.1560

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.0800	0.1220	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6800	3.9210	3.8366	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2400	0.2398	0.2399	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2800	0.1710	0.2092	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	0.9400	0.8910	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0090	0.0094	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2700	0.2702	0.2701	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5200	0.3800	0.4290	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.2890	0.2753	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2670	0.2666	0.2667	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3200	1.1560	1.2134	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B-LF
gameID	20260504_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	650489
playerID	650489
playerName	Willi Castro
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	COL
teamID	9

Kyle Karros (691720) · BATTER · 2B · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 31

All-history rows before 20260505: 31

System season_avg: 0.2170

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2174

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.097	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.097	0.000	-0.097	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.968	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	2.968	3.000	1.032	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.285	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.217	0.333	0.283	0.167
predicted_BB	0.581	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.581	0.000	0.419	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.700	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.645	1.000	1.355	1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.032	0.000	0.968	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.347	0.600	0.600	Hitting_OBP	0.339	0.333	0.261	0.267
predicted_R	0.452	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.452	0.000	0.548	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.210	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.161	1.000	0.839	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.065	0.000	-0.065	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.308	1.250	1.250	Hitting_SLG	0.283	0.333	0.967	0.917
predicted_SO	0.871	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.871	2.000	-0.871	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.097	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.968	-
predicted_AVG	0.285	-
predicted_BB	0.581	-
predicted_H	0.700	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.347	-
predicted_R	0.452	-
predicted_RBI	0.210	-
predicted_SLG	0.308	-
predicted_SO	0.871	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.070	-0.027
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.193	0.225
predicted_AVG	0.285	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.456	-0.125
predicted_H	0.858	0.158
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.008	-0.002
predicted_OBP	0.347	0.000
predicted_R	0.506	0.054
predicted_RBI	0.256	0.046
predicted_SLG	0.308	0.000
predicted_SO	1.232	0.361

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.19), rates preserved: AVG=0.269 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	9.000	0.3529	0.3684	0.3529	0.3529	0.0000	0.1177	0.0588	0.5294
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	13.000	0.2353	0.3250	0.2647	0.2353	0.0000	0.0588	0.1471	0.3824
season	0.20	31	-	92.000	20.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	14.000	18.000	27.000	0.2174	0.3393	0.2826	0.2174	0.0109	0.0544	0.1956	0.2935

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0560
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.3140
predicted_AVG	0.2846
predicted_BB	0.3880
predicted_H	0.9430
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0070
predicted_OBP	0.3474
predicted_R	0.5350
predicted_RBI	0.2800
predicted_SLG	0.3080
predicted_SO	1.4270

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0970	0.0560	0.0703	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.9680	3.3140	3.1929	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2850	0.2846	0.2847	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5810	0.3880	0.4556	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7000	0.9430	0.8579	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0070	0.0080	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3470	0.3474	0.3473	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4520	0.5350	0.5060	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2100	0.2800	0.2555	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3080	0.3080	0.3080	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8710	1.4270	1.2324	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.217

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260504_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	691720
playerID	691720
playerName	Kyle Karros
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	COL
teamID	9

Ezequiel Tovar (678662) · BATTER · 3B · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 33

All-history rows before 20260505: 33

System season_avg: 0.1950

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1951

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.242	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.242	0.000	-0.242	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.727	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.727	3.000	0.273	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.169	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.195	0.000	0.305	0.500
predicted_BB	0.212	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.212	0.000	0.788	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.570	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.727	0.000	1.273	2.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.275	0.600	0.600	Hitting_OBP	0.248	0.000	0.352	0.600
predicted_R	0.273	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.273	0.000	0.727	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.273	0.000	0.727	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.187	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.285	0.000	0.215	0.500
predicted_SO	1.091	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.091	1.000	-1.091	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.242	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.727	-
predicted_AVG	0.169	-
predicted_BB	0.212	-
predicted_H	0.570	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.275	-
predicted_R	0.273	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.187	-
predicted_SO	1.091	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.109	-0.133
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.219	-0.508
predicted_AVG	0.169	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.395	0.183
predicted_H	0.522	-0.047
predicted_HBP	0.010	-
predicted_HR	0.007	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.275	0.000
predicted_R	0.144	-0.129
predicted_RBI	0.264	-0.026
predicted_SLG	0.187	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.940	-0.151

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.140 HR/AB=0.002

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, BvP AVG=0.417)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	12.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	0.1667	0.3125	0.1667	0.1667	0.0000	0.0833	0.2500	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	11.000	0.1562	0.2432	0.1562	0.1562	0.0000	0.0938	0.1250	0.3438
season	0.20	33	-	123.000	24.000	8.000	1.000	9.000	9.000	7.000	36.000	0.1951	0.2481	0.2846	0.1951	0.0081	0.0732	0.0569	0.2927

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0380
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.9450
predicted_AVG	0.1687
predicted_BB	0.4940
predicted_H	0.4970
predicted_HBP	0.0100
predicted_HR	0.0050
predicted_OBP	0.2754
predicted_R	0.0750
predicted_RBI	0.2500
predicted_SLG	0.1866
predicted_SO	0.8580

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2420	0.0380	0.1094	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7270	2.9450	3.2187	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1690	0.1687	0.1688	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2120	0.4940	0.3953	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5700	0.4970	0.5225	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0100	0.0100	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0050	0.0067	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2750	0.2754	0.2753	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2730	0.0750	0.1443	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.2500	0.2640	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1870	0.1866	0.1867	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0910	0.8580	0.9395	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.195

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260504_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	678662
playerID	678662
playerName	Ezequiel Tovar
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	COL
teamID	9

Hunter Goodman (696100) · BATTER · SS · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 31

All-history rows before 20260505: 31

System season_avg: 0.2280

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2276

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.226	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.226	0.000	-0.226	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.968	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.968	4.000	1.032	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.142	0.200	0.200	Hitting_AVG	0.228	0.000	-0.028	0.200
predicted_BB	0.323	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.323	0.000	-0.323	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_H	0.490	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.903	0.000	0.097	1.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.290	0.000	-0.290	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.200	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.301	0.000	-0.101	0.200
predicted_R	0.742	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.742	0.000	-0.742	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.452	0.000	-0.452	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.344	0.200	0.200	Hitting_SLG	0.504	0.000	-0.304	0.200
predicted_SO	1.710	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.710	1.000	-0.710	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.226	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.968	-
predicted_AVG	0.142	-
predicted_BB	0.323	-
predicted_H	0.490	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.200	-
predicted_R	0.742	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.344	-
predicted_SO	1.710	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.235	0.009
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.089	0.121
predicted_AVG	0.142	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.305	-0.018
predicted_H	0.555	0.065
predicted_HBP	0.020	-
predicted_HR	0.185	0.025
predicted_OBP	0.200	0.000
predicted_R	0.621	-0.121
predicted_RBI	0.399	0.049
predicted_SLG	0.344	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.815	0.105

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.09), rates preserved: AVG=0.136 HR/AB=0.045

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.968

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	10.000	0.0476	0.0909	0.0952	0.0476	0.0000	0.0476	0.0476	0.4762
last_10	0.35	10	-	42.000	9.000	3.000	4.000	7.000	9.000	4.000	18.000	0.2143	0.2826	0.5714	0.2143	0.0952	0.1667	0.0952	0.4286
season	0.20	31	-	123.000	28.000	7.000	9.000	14.000	23.000	10.000	53.000	0.2276	0.3015	0.5041	0.2276	0.0732	0.1138	0.0813	0.4309

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2400
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.1540
predicted_AVG	0.1419
predicted_BB	0.2950
predicted_H	0.5900
predicted_HBP	0.0200
predicted_HR	0.1990
predicted_OBP	0.2001
predicted_R	0.5560
predicted_RBI	0.4260
predicted_SLG	0.3437
predicted_SO	1.8710

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2260	0.2400	0.2351	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9680	4.1540	4.0889	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1420	0.1419	0.1419	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3230	0.2950	0.3048	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4900	0.5900	0.5550	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0200	0.0200	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1990	0.1854	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2000	0.2001	0.2001	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7420	0.5560	0.6211	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.4260	0.3994	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3440	0.3437	0.3438	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.7100	1.8710	1.8146	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.228

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260504_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	696100
playerID	696100
playerName	Hunter Goodman
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	COL
teamID	9

Mickey Moniak (666160) · BATTER · LF · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 25

All-history rows before 20260505: 25

System season_avg: 0.3440

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3438

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.280	1.000	-0.280	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.040	1.000	-0.040	-1.000
predicted_AB	3.840	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.840	4.000	0.160	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.385	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.344	0.500	-0.344	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.280	0.000	-0.280	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.320	2.000	-1.320	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.440	0.000	-0.440	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.452	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.390	0.500	-0.190	-0.300
predicted_R	0.760	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.760	0.000	-0.760	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.650	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.800	0.000	-0.800	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.931	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.781	1.250	-0.781	-1.250
predicted_SO	1.040	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.040	1.000	0.960	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.280	-
predicted_3B	0.040	-
predicted_AB	3.840	-
predicted_AVG	0.385	-
predicted_BB	0.280	-
predicted_H	1.150	-
predicted_HR	0.390	-
predicted_OBP	0.452	-
predicted_R	0.760	-
predicted_RBI	0.650	-
predicted_SLG	0.931	-
predicted_SO	1.040	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.342	0.062
predicted_3B	0.099	0.059
predicted_AB	4.005	0.165
predicted_AVG	0.385	0.000
predicted_BB	0.342	0.062
predicted_H	1.428	0.278
predicted_HBP	0.131	-
predicted_HR	0.482	0.092
predicted_OBP	0.452	-0.000
predicted_R	0.861	0.101
predicted_RBI	0.805	0.155
predicted_SLG	0.931	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.100	0.060

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.356 HR/AB=0.120

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, BvP AVG=0.143)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	1.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.840

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	5.000	2.000	6.000	0.3810	0.4583	1.0000	0.3810	0.1429	0.2381	0.0952	0.2857
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	17.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	8.000	9.000	4.000	11.000	0.4146	0.4783	0.9268	0.4146	0.1220	0.1951	0.0976	0.2683
season	0.20	25	-	96.000	33.000	7.000	1.000	11.000	20.000	19.000	7.000	26.000	0.3438	0.3905	0.7812	0.3438	0.1146	0.2083	0.0729	0.2708

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3750
predicted_3B	0.1310
predicted_AB	4.0930
predicted_AVG	0.3853
predicted_BB	0.3750
predicted_H	1.5770
predicted_HBP	0.1310
predicted_HR	0.5320
predicted_OBP	0.4517
predicted_R	0.9150
predicted_RBI	0.8890
predicted_SLG	0.9306
predicted_SO	1.1320

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2800	0.3750	0.3417	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0400	0.1310	0.0992	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8400	4.0930	4.0045	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3850	0.3853	0.3852	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2800	0.3750	0.3417	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1500	1.5770	1.4276	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1310	0.1310	form_only
predicted_HR	0.3900	0.5320	0.4823	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4520	0.4517	0.4518	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7600	0.9150	0.8607	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6500	0.8890	0.8054	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.9310	0.9306	0.9307	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0400	1.1320	1.0998	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	1
season_avg	0.344

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	1
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF-CF
gameID	20260504_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	666160
playerID	666160
playerName	Mickey Moniak
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	COL
teamID	9

Troy Johnston (687859) · BATTER · CF · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 29

All-history rows before 20260505: 29

System season_avg: 0.3170

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3173

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.276	0.000	-0.276	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.714	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.586	3.000	0.414	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.345	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.317	0.667	-0.317	-0.667
predicted_BB	0.321	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.345	2.000	0.655	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_H	1.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.138	2.000	-1.138	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.069	0.000	-0.069	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.427	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.383	0.800	-0.183	-0.600
predicted_R	0.357	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.345	1.000	-0.345	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.517	0.000	-0.517	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.444	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.452	0.667	-0.452	-0.667
predicted_SO	0.821	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.793	1.000	1.207	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.286	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.714	-
predicted_AVG	0.345	-
predicted_BB	0.321	-
predicted_H	1.000	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.427	-
predicted_R	0.357	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.444	-
predicted_SO	0.821	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.302	0.016
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.619	-0.095
predicted_AVG	0.345	0.000
predicted_BB	0.447	0.126
predicted_H	1.151	0.151
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.013	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.427	-0.000
predicted_R	0.358	0.001
predicted_RBI	0.286	0.036
predicted_SLG	0.444	0.000
predicted_SO	0.833	0.012

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.310 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	0.3529	0.4500	0.4706	0.3529	0.0000	0.0000	0.1765	0.2353
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	13.000	2.000	0.000	6.000	3.000	5.000	9.000	0.3514	0.4286	0.4054	0.3513	0.0000	0.1622	0.1351	0.2432
season	0.20	28	-	104.000	33.000	8.000	2.000	15.000	10.000	9.000	23.000	0.3173	0.3717	0.4519	0.3173	0.0192	0.1442	0.0865	0.2212

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3110
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5680
predicted_AVG	0.3453
predicted_BB	0.5140
predicted_H	1.2320
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0140
predicted_OBP	0.4269
predicted_R	0.3590
predicted_RBI	0.3050
predicted_SLG	0.4440
predicted_SO	0.8390

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2860	0.3110	0.3022	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7140	3.5680	3.6191	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3450	0.3453	0.3452	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3210	0.5140	0.4465	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0000	1.2320	1.1508	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0140	0.0126	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4270	0.4269	0.4269	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3570	0.3590	0.3583	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.3050	0.2858	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4440	0.4440	0.4440	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8210	0.8390	0.8327	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.317

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260503_ATL@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	687859
playerID	687859
playerName	Troy Johnston
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	COL
teamID	9

Edouard Julien (666397) · BATTER · RF · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 24

All-history rows before 20260505: 24

System season_avg: 0.2860

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2857

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.042	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	4.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.306	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_BB	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_H	0.800	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.407	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.375	0.200	-0.125	0.050
predicted_R	0.625	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.625	1.000	0.375	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.125	1.000	-0.125	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.483	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.417	0.000	-0.417	0.000
predicted_SO	1.167	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.167	4.000	-0.167	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.042	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.306	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.800	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.407	-
predicted_R	0.625	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.483	-
predicted_SO	1.167	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.163	0.038
predicted_3B	0.043	0.001
predicted_AB	3.760	0.260
predicted_AVG	0.306	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.609	0.109
predicted_H	1.055	0.255
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.122	0.033
predicted_OBP	0.407	0.000
predicted_R	0.873	0.248
predicted_RBI	0.464	0.114
predicted_SLG	0.483	0.000
predicted_SO	1.446	0.279

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.281 HR/AB=0.033

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	9.000	0.3000	0.4167	0.5000	0.3000	0.0500	0.1000	0.2000	0.4500
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	13.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	7.000	10.000	6.000	16.000	0.3250	0.4130	0.5000	0.3250	0.0250	0.1750	0.1500	0.4000
season	0.20	24	-	84.000	24.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	12.000	15.000	12.000	28.000	0.2857	0.3750	0.4167	0.2857	0.0238	0.1429	0.1429	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1840
predicted_3B	0.0430
predicted_AB	3.9000
predicted_AVG	0.3059
predicted_BB	0.6670
predicted_H	1.1930
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1400
predicted_OBP	0.4071
predicted_R	1.0070
predicted_RBI	0.5260
predicted_SLG	0.4833
predicted_SO	1.5960

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.1840	0.1633	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0420	0.0430	0.0427	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.9000	3.7600	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3060	0.3059	0.3059	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.6670	0.6086	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8000	1.1930	1.0554	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1400	0.1225	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4070	0.4071	0.4071	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6250	1.0070	0.8733	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.5260	0.4644	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4830	0.4833	0.4832	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1670	1.5960	1.4459	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.286

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	4
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260503_ATL@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	666397
playerID	666397
playerName	Edouard Julien
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	COL
teamID	9

Michael Lorenzen (547179) · PITCHER · Starter · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 8

All-history rows before 20260505: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.875	4.000	-0.875	-2.000
predicted_IP	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.075	5.100	0.925	-0.100
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_SO	3.000	5.000	0.000	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 5.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	21.000	10.000	25.000	5.000	14.000	3.000	4.2857	1.4286	0.4762	1.1905	0.2381	0.6667	0.1429
last_10	0.35	8	34.000	23.000	51.000	9.000	24.000	6.000	6.0882	1.7647	0.6765	1.5000	0.2647	0.7059	0.1765
season	0.20	8	34.000	23.000	51.000	9.000	24.000	6.000	6.0882	1.7647	0.6765	1.5000	0.2647	0.7059	0.1765

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.0680
predicted_ER	2.4790
predicted_ERA	5.2771
predicted_H	5.7520
predicted_HR	0.6820
predicted_IP	4.2280
predicted_SO	2.9100
predicted_WHIP	1.6135

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.0680	1.0442	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.4790	2.3114	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.2771	5.2771	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	5.7520	5.1388	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.6820	0.4433	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.0000	4.2280	4.4982	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	2.9100	2.9415	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.6135	1.6135	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.0
H	4
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	3
HR	0
BF	20
Pitches	77

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	23
Pitching_ER	4
Pitching_ERA	6.09
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	5
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.1
Pitching_Pitches	85
Pitching_R	4
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	49
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260430_COL@CIN
game_type	full
mlbID	547179
playerID	547179
playerName	Michael Lorenzen
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Juan Mejia (675848) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 14

All-history rows before 20260505: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.714	0.000	0.286	1.000
predicted_IP	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.071	2.000	0.929	0.000
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.571	5.000	1.429	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 2.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	7.333	3.000	6.000	3.000	14.000	1.000	3.6818	1.2273	0.4091	0.8182	0.4091	1.9091	0.1364
last_10	0.35	10	11.333	8.000	15.000	5.000	19.000	2.000	6.3529	1.7647	0.7059	1.3235	0.4412	1.6765	0.1765
season	0.20	14	17.333	10.000	21.000	7.000	22.000	2.000	5.1923	1.6154	0.5769	1.2115	0.4038	1.2692	0.1154

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5470
predicted_ER	0.7130
predicted_ERA	4.9188
predicted_H	1.4000
predicted_HR	0.1910
predicted_IP	1.3040
predicted_SO	2.2170
predicted_WHIP	1.4930

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.5470	1.0555	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.7130	0.8135	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.9188	4.9188	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	1.4000	1.6100	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1910	0.1242	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	2.0000	1.3040	1.5476	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	2.2170	2.4910	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4930	1.4930	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	2.0
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	2
SO	3
HR	0
BF	10
Pitches	49

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	6
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.19
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	23
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	18
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_NYM@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	675848
playerID	675848
playerName	Juan Mejia
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Antonio Senzatela (622608) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 10

All-history rows before 20260505: 10

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.300	2.000	-0.300	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.930	2.200	-0.930	-1.200
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	2.000	1.000	-2.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	10.000	3.000	8.000	3.000	5.000	2.7000	1.1000	0.3000	0.8000	0.3000	0.5000
last_10	0.35	10	22.333	3.000	12.000	6.000	20.000	1.2090	0.8060	0.1343	0.5373	0.2687	0.8955
season	0.20	10	22.333	3.000	12.000	6.000	20.000	1.2090	0.8060	0.1343	0.5373	0.2687	0.8955

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6020
predicted_ER	0.4450
predicted_ERA	1.8800
predicted_H	1.3950
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	2.1280
predicted_SO	1.5270
predicted_WHIP	0.9383

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6020	0.3913	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.4450	0.2893	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.8800	1.8800	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.3950	1.2568	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	2.1280	1.7332	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.5270	0.9925	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9383	0.9383	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	11
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	1.21
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	3
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.2
Pitching_Pitches	42
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	24
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_ATL@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	622608
playerID	622608
playerName	Antonio Senzatela
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Jimmy Herget (623474) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 13

All-history rows before 20260505: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.538	3.000	-0.538	-3.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.969	1.000	0.031	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.077	0.000	-0.077	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	5.000	9.000	2.000	8.000	1.000	9.0000	2.2000	1.0000	1.8000	0.4000	1.6000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	11.000	7.000	13.000	3.000	11.000	1.000	5.7273	1.4545	0.6364	1.1818	0.2727	1.0000	0.0909
season	0.20	13	14.000	7.000	15.000	3.000	14.000	1.000	4.5000	1.2857	0.5000	1.0714	0.2143	1.0000	0.0714

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3340
predicted_ER	0.8120
predicted_ERA	6.9546
predicted_H	1.5100
predicted_HR	0.1430
predicted_IP	1.0500
predicted_SO	1.3340
predicted_WHIP	1.7562

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3340	0.2171	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.8120	0.5278	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	6.9546	6.9546	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.5100	0.9815	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1430	0.0929	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0500	1.0325	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.3340	1.2171	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.7562	1.7562	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	4.50
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	28
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	19
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_ATL@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	623474
playerID	623474
playerName	Jimmy Herget
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

Victor Vodnik (680767) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team COL

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 13

All-history rows before 20260505: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.846	0.000	1.154	2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.015	1.000	-0.015	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.923	1.000	-0.923	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.667	9.000	9.000	4.000	7.000	1.000	17.3571	2.7857	1.9286	1.9286	0.8571	1.5000	0.2143
last_10	0.35	10	10.667	9.000	14.000	8.000	11.000	1.000	7.5938	2.0625	0.8438	1.3125	0.7500	1.0312	0.0938
season	0.20	13	13.667	11.000	19.000	8.000	12.000	2.000	7.2439	1.9756	0.8049	1.3902	0.5854	0.8780	0.1463

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7680
predicted_ER	1.3290
predicted_ERA	11.9173
predicted_H	1.6110
predicted_HR	0.1590
predicted_IP	1.0040
predicted_SO	1.2160
predicted_WHIP	2.3706

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.7680	1.1992	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	1.3290	1.5638	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	11.9173	11.9173	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	1.6110	2.0972	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1590	0.1034	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0040	1.0026	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.2160	0.7904	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	2.3706	2.3706	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	2
SO	0
HR	0
BF	8
Pitches	32

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	7.24
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_ATL@COL
game_type	full
mlbID	680767
playerID	680767
playerName	Victor Vodnik
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	COL
teamID	9

20260505_OAK@PHI

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 1, "home_runs": 7, "confidence": 0.68, "home_win_probability": 0.68, "away_win_probability": 0.31999999999999995, "predicted_score_text": "OAK 1 - 7 PHI", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "predicted_score_text": "OAK 3 - 5 PHI", "confidence": 0.68, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "OAK 3 - 5 PHI", "winner": "PHI"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 1, "home_runs": 7, "score_text": "OAK 1 - 7 PHI", "winner": "PHI"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -2, "home_run_delta": 2, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Away Team: OAK

Brett Harris (695391) · BATTER · 3B · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 0

All-history rows before 20260505: 0

System season_avg: 0.0000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): -

Diff (system - data): -

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	-	-	-	-
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	-	-	-	-
predicted_AB	0.000	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	-	-	-	-
predicted_AVG	0.000	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	-	-	-	-
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	-	-	-	-
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	-	-	-	-
predicted_H	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	-	-	-	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	-	-	-	-
predicted_OBP	0.000	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	-	-	-	-
predicted_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	-	-	-	-
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	-	-	-	-
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	-	-	-	-
predicted_SLG	0.000	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw XGBoost model output

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	0.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.000	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.000	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.000	-
predicted_SLG	0.000	-
predicted_SO	0.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.475	2.475
predicted_AVG	0.000	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.000	0.000
predicted_R	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.000	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.000 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 0

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Total PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
last_10	0.35	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
season	0.20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8070
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_H	0.0000
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_R	0.0000
predicted_RBI	0.0000
predicted_SO	0.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	0.0000	3.8070	2.4746	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.0000	-	0.0000	model_only
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.0000	-	0.0000	model_only
predicted_R	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.0000	-	0.0000	model_only
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	0
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

Brent Rooker (667670) · BATTER · DH · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 17

All-history rows before 20260505: 17

System season_avg: 0.1640

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1642

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.941	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.941	5.000	-0.941	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.192	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.164	0.200	-0.164	-0.200
predicted_BB	0.412	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.412	0.000	0.588	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.680	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.647	1.000	-0.647	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.234	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.237	0.200	0.013	0.050
predicted_R	0.412	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.412	0.000	-0.412	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.750	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.706	1.000	-0.706	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.356	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.299	0.200	-0.299	-0.200
predicted_SO	1.412	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.412	2.000	0.588	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.941	-
predicted_AVG	0.192	-
predicted_BB	0.412	-
predicted_H	0.680	-
predicted_HR	0.190	-
predicted_OBP	0.234	-
predicted_R	0.412	-
predicted_RBI	0.750	-
predicted_SLG	0.356	-
predicted_SO	1.412	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.147	0.206
predicted_AVG	0.192	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.323	-0.089
predicted_H	0.769	0.089
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.218	0.028
predicted_OBP	0.234	0.000
predicted_R	0.431	0.020
predicted_RBI	0.845	0.095
predicted_SLG	0.356	0.000
predicted_SO	1.308	-0.104

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.15), rates preserved: AVG=0.185 HR/AB=0.053

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 3.941

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	23.000	5.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	6.000	0.2174	0.2174	0.3478	0.2174	0.0435	0.1739	0.0000	0.2609
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	7.000	3.000	11.000	5.000	5.000	12.000	0.1750	0.2553	0.4000	0.1750	0.0750	0.2750	0.1250	0.3000
season	0.20	17	-	67.000	11.000	3.000	12.000	7.000	7.000	24.000	0.1642	0.2368	0.2985	0.1642	0.0448	0.1791	0.1045	0.3582

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.2580
predicted_AVG	0.1919
predicted_BB	0.2750
predicted_H	0.8170
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.2330
predicted_OBP	0.2345
predicted_R	0.4420
predicted_RBI	0.8960
predicted_SLG	0.3562
predicted_SO	1.2520

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9410	4.2580	4.1471	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1920	0.1919	0.1919	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4120	0.2750	0.3230	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6800	0.8170	0.7691	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1900	0.2330	0.2179	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2340	0.2345	0.2343	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4120	0.4420	0.4315	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7500	0.8960	0.8449	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3560	0.3562	0.3561	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4120	1.2520	1.3080	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.164

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.2
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260503_CLE@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	667670
playerID	667670
playerName	Brent Rooker
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	OAK
teamID	20

Tyler Soderstrom (691016) · BATTER · LF · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 32

All-history rows before 20260505: 32

System season_avg: 0.2210

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2213

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.344	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.344	0.000	-0.344	0.000
predicted_3B	0.031	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_AB	3.812	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.812	4.000	0.188	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.261	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.221	0.750	0.279	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.469	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.469	0.000	-0.469	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.844	3.000	1.156	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	1.000	-0.125	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.346	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.304	0.750	0.196	-0.250
predicted_R	0.531	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.531	2.000	-0.531	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.594	1.000	-0.594	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.529	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.426	1.500	0.074	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.875	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.875	1.000	-0.875	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.344	-
predicted_3B	0.031	-
predicted_AB	3.812	-
predicted_AVG	0.261	-
predicted_BB	0.469	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.346	-
predicted_R	0.531	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.529	-
predicted_SO	0.875	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.396	0.052
predicted_3B	0.015	-0.016
predicted_AB	3.748	-0.064
predicted_AVG	0.261	0.000
predicted_BB	0.494	0.025
predicted_H	0.917	0.098
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.177	0.017
predicted_OBP	0.346	0.000
predicted_R	0.650	0.119
predicted_RBI	0.326	0.036
predicted_SLG	0.529	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.912	0.037

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.241 HR/AB=0.046

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.812

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	6.000	0.2778	0.3810	0.5556	0.2778	0.0556	0.0556	0.1667	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	10.000	5.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	7.000	4.000	6.000	0.2632	0.3256	0.5526	0.2632	0.0526	0.1053	0.1053	0.1579
season	0.20	32	-	122.000	27.000	11.000	1.000	4.000	19.000	17.000	15.000	28.000	0.2213	0.3043	0.4262	0.2213	0.0328	0.1557	0.1230	0.2295

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4240
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.7130
predicted_AVG	0.2614
predicted_BB	0.5070
predicted_H	0.9700
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1860
predicted_OBP	0.3463
predicted_R	0.7140
predicted_RBI	0.3450
predicted_SLG	0.5287
predicted_SO	0.9320

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3440	0.4240	0.3960	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0310	0.0060	0.0147	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8120	3.7130	3.7477	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2610	0.2614	0.2613	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4690	0.5070	0.4937	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	0.9700	0.9175	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1860	0.1769	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3460	0.3463	0.3462	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5310	0.7140	0.6500	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.3450	0.3257	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5290	0.5287	0.5288	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8750	0.9320	0.9121	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.221

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.75
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	6
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260503_CLE@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	691016
playerID	691016
playerName	Tyler Soderstrom
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	OAK
teamID	20

Colby Thomas (687515) · BATTER · RF · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 5

All-history rows before 20260505: 5

System season_avg: 0.2860

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2857

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.800	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	2.800	2.000	1.200	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.286	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.286	0.500	-0.036	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.800	1.000	0.200	0.000
predicted_HR	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	1.000	-0.200	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.375	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.375	0.500	-0.125	-0.250
predicted_R	0.200	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.200	1.000	0.800	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.360	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.400	1.000	0.600	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.500	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.500	2.000	0.000	-1.500
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.800	-
predicted_AVG	0.286	-
predicted_BB	0.400	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.180	-
predicted_OBP	0.375	-
predicted_R	0.200	-
predicted_RBI	0.360	-
predicted_SLG	0.500	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.800	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.286	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.400	0.000
predicted_H	0.772	0.052
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.193	0.013
predicted_OBP	0.375	0.000
predicted_R	0.200	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.386	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.500	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.276 HR/AB=0.069

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 5

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	0.2857	0.3750	0.5000	0.2857	0.0714	0.1429	0.1429	0.3571
last_10	0.35	5	-	14.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	0.2857	0.3750	0.5000	0.2857	0.0714	0.1429	0.1429	0.3571
season	0.20	5	-	14.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	0.2857	0.3750	0.5000	0.2857	0.0714	0.1429	0.1429	0.3571

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.8000
predicted_AVG	0.2857
predicted_BB	0.4000
predicted_H	0.8000
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.2000
predicted_OBP	0.3750
predicted_R	0.2000
predicted_RBI	0.4000
predicted_SLG	0.5000
predicted_SO	1.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8000	2.8000	2.8000	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2860	0.2857	0.2858	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4000	0.4000	0.4000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.8000	0.7720	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1800	0.2000	0.1930	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3750	0.3750	0.3750	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2000	0.2000	0.2000	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3600	0.4000	0.3860	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5000	0.5000	0.5000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	5
Season rows before report date	5
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	5
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.286

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260503_CLE@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	687515
playerID	687515
playerName	Colby Thomas
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	OAK
teamID	20

Darell Hernaiz (687231) · BATTER · 2B · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 14

All-history rows before 20260505: 14

System season_avg: 0.2050

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2045

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.143	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.143	4.000	-0.143	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.251	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.205	0.250	-0.205	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.620	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.643	1.000	-0.643	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.071	0.000	-0.071	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.346	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.314	0.250	-0.064	0.000
predicted_R	0.357	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.357	1.000	-0.357	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.270	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.296	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.273	0.250	-0.273	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.143	-
predicted_AVG	0.251	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.620	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.346	-
predicted_R	0.357	-
predicted_RBI	0.270	-
predicted_SLG	0.296	-
predicted_SO	0.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.313	0.170
predicted_AVG	0.251	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.497	-0.003
predicted_H	0.771	0.151
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.048	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.346	-0.000
predicted_R	0.458	0.101
predicted_RBI	0.339	0.069
predicted_SLG	0.296	0.000
predicted_SO	0.482	-0.018

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.31), rates preserved: AVG=0.233 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	5.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	0.2778	0.3500	0.2778	0.2778	0.0000	0.1111	0.1111	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	8.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	6.000	3.000	0.2424	0.3590	0.3333	0.2424	0.0303	0.1212	0.1818	0.0909
season	0.20	14	-	44.000	9.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	7.000	7.000	0.2045	0.3137	0.2727	0.2046	0.0227	0.0909	0.1591	0.1591

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4040
predicted_AVG	0.2508
predicted_BB	0.4950
predicted_H	0.8530
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0520
predicted_OBP	0.3459
predicted_R	0.5130
predicted_RBI	0.3760
predicted_SLG	0.2962
predicted_SO	0.4720

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1430	3.4040	3.3126	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2510	0.2508	0.2509	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.4950	0.4967	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6200	0.8530	0.7714	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0520	0.0478	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3460	0.3459	0.3459	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3570	0.5130	0.4584	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2700	0.3760	0.3389	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2960	0.2962	0.2961	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5000	0.4720	0.4818	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.205

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260503_CLE@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	687231
playerID	687231
playerName	Darell Hernaiz
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	OAK
teamID	20

Zack Gelof (680869) · BATTER · CF · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 11

All-history rows before 20260505: 11

System season_avg: 0.2430

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2432

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.091	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.364	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.364	3.000	0.636	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.279	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.243	0.333	-0.243	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.182	1.000	-0.182	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.818	1.000	-0.818	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.182	1.000	-0.182	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.336	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.282	0.500	-0.282	-0.500
predicted_R	0.545	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.545	2.000	-0.545	-2.000
predicted_RBI	0.560	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.636	1.000	-0.636	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.471	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.432	1.333	-0.432	-1.333
predicted_SO	0.818	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.818	0.000	-0.818	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.091	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.364	-
predicted_AVG	0.279	-
predicted_BB	0.182	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.336	-
predicted_R	0.545	-
predicted_RBI	0.560	-
predicted_SLG	0.471	-
predicted_SO	0.818	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.065	-0.026
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.347	-0.017
predicted_AVG	0.279	0.000
predicted_BB	0.253	0.071
predicted_H	0.893	0.073
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.188	0.017
predicted_OBP	0.336	-0.000
predicted_R	0.574	0.029
predicted_RBI	0.613	0.053
predicted_SLG	0.471	0.000
predicted_SO	0.727	-0.091

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.36), rates preserved: AVG=0.265 HR/AB=0.056

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	3.000	0.3125	0.3889	0.5000	0.3125	0.0625	0.1875	0.1250	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	9.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	6.000	2.000	7.000	0.2571	0.2973	0.4571	0.2571	0.0571	0.2000	0.0571	0.2000
season	0.20	11	-	37.000	9.000	1.000	2.000	7.000	6.000	2.000	9.000	0.2432	0.2821	0.4324	0.2432	0.0541	0.1892	0.0541	0.2432

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0510
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.3380
predicted_AVG	0.2792
predicted_BB	0.2910
predicted_H	0.9320
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1970
predicted_OBP	0.3355
predicted_R	0.5900
predicted_RBI	0.6420
predicted_SLG	0.4715
predicted_SO	0.6780

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0910	0.0510	0.0650	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3640	3.3380	3.3471	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2790	0.2792	0.2791	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1820	0.2910	0.2528	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	0.9320	0.8928	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1970	0.1875	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3360	0.3355	0.3357	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5450	0.5900	0.5743	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5600	0.6420	0.6133	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4710	0.4715	0.4713	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8180	0.6780	0.7270	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.243

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260503_CLE@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	680869
playerID	680869
playerName	Zack Gelof
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	OAK
teamID	20

Austin Wynns (642851) · BATTER · C · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 10

All-history rows before 20260505: 10

System season_avg: 0.0880

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.0882

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.400	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.400	3.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.072	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.088	0.000	-0.088	0.000
predicted_BB	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.300	1.000	-0.300	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.153	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.162	0.250	-0.162	-0.250
predicted_R	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.300	1.000	-0.300	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.072	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.088	0.000	-0.088	0.000
predicted_SO	0.700	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.700	1.000	-0.700	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.400	-
predicted_AVG	0.072	-
predicted_BB	0.300	-
predicted_H	0.200	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.153	-
predicted_R	0.300	-
predicted_RBI	0.000	-
predicted_SLG	0.072	-
predicted_SO	0.700	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.517	0.117
predicted_AVG	0.072	0.000
predicted_BB	0.328	0.028
predicted_H	0.238	0.038
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.153	0.000
predicted_R	0.328	0.028
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.072	0.000
predicted_SO	0.784	0.084

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.52), rates preserved: AVG=0.068 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	0.0526	0.1429	0.0526	0.0526	0.1053	0.2632
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	7.000	0.0882	0.1622	0.0882	0.0882	0.0882	0.2059
season	0.20	10	-	34.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	7.000	0.0882	0.1622	0.0882	0.0882	0.0882	0.2059

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5800
predicted_AVG	0.0722
predicted_BB	0.3430
predicted_H	0.2590
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.1535
predicted_R	0.3430
predicted_RBI	0.0000
predicted_SLG	0.0722
predicted_SO	0.8290

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4000	3.5800	3.5170	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.0720	0.0722	0.0721	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3000	0.3430	0.3280	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.2000	0.2590	0.2384	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1530	0.1535	0.1533	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3000	0.3430	0.3280	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.0720	0.0722	0.0721	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7000	0.8290	0.7838	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.088

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260503_CLE@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	642851
playerID	642851
playerName	Austin Wynns
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	OAK
teamID	20

Nick Kurtz (701762) · BATTER · 1B · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 33

All-history rows before 20260505: 33

System season_avg: 0.2440

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2437

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.152	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.152	0.000	-0.152	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.606	2.000	2.000	Hitting_AB	3.606	4.000	-1.606	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.244	0.250	-0.244	-0.250
predicted_BB	1.030	2.000	2.000	Hitting_BB	1.030	0.000	0.970	2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_H	0.920	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.879	1.000	-0.879	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.152	0.000	-0.152	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.397	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.412	0.250	0.088	0.250
predicted_R	0.576	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.576	0.000	-0.576	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.560	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.485	0.000	-0.485	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.429	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.412	0.250	-0.412	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.515	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.515	2.000	-0.515	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.152	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.606	-
predicted_AVG	0.280	-
predicted_BB	1.030	-
predicted_H	0.920	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.397	-
predicted_R	0.576	-
predicted_RBI	0.560	-
predicted_SLG	0.429	-
predicted_SO	1.515	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.234	0.082
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.811	0.205
predicted_AVG	0.280	0.000
predicted_BB	0.856	-0.174
predicted_H	1.036	0.116
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.098	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.397	0.000
predicted_R	0.554	-0.022
predicted_RBI	0.628	0.068
predicted_SLG	0.429	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.560	0.045

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.81), rates preserved: AVG=0.272 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	2.000	-2.000
BB	2.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	8.000	0.3000	0.3913	0.4000	0.3000	0.0000	0.2000	0.1500	0.4000
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	11.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	7.000	8.000	16.000	0.2750	0.3958	0.4750	0.2750	0.0500	0.1500	0.2000	0.4000
season	0.20	33	-	119.000	29.000	5.000	5.000	16.000	19.000	34.000	50.000	0.2437	0.4118	0.4118	0.2437	0.0420	0.1344	0.2857	0.4202

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2780
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9210
predicted_AVG	0.2800
predicted_BB	0.7630
predicted_H	1.0980
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1020
predicted_OBP	0.3970
predicted_R	0.5420
predicted_RBI	0.6640
predicted_SLG	0.4286
predicted_SO	1.5840

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1520	0.2780	0.2339	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6060	3.9210	3.8107	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2800	0.2800	0.2800	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	1.0300	0.7630	0.8564	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9200	1.0980	1.0357	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1020	0.0978	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3970	0.3970	0.3970	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5760	0.5420	0.5539	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5600	0.6640	0.6276	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4290	0.4286	0.4287	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.5150	1.5840	1.5598	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	2
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	2
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.244

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260503_CLE@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	701762
playerID	701762
playerName	Nick Kurtz
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	OAK
teamID	20

Jacob Wilson (805779) · BATTER · SS · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 33

All-history rows before 20260505: 33

System season_avg: 0.2950

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2950

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.242	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.242	0.000	-0.242	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.212	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.212	4.000	-0.212	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.374	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.295	0.250	-0.295	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.121	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.121	1.000	-0.121	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.460	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.242	1.000	-1.242	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.426	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.312	0.400	-0.312	-0.400
predicted_R	0.485	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.485	0.000	-0.485	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.455	0.000	-0.455	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.477	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.396	0.250	-0.396	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.455	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.455	0.000	-0.455	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.242	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.212	-
predicted_AVG	0.374	-
predicted_BB	0.121	-
predicted_H	1.460	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.426	-
predicted_R	0.485	-
predicted_RBI	0.190	-
predicted_SLG	0.477	-
predicted_SO	0.455	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.326	0.084
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.020	-0.192
predicted_AVG	0.374	0.000
predicted_BB	0.306	0.185
predicted_H	1.464	0.004
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.011	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.426	-0.000
predicted_R	0.667	0.182
predicted_RBI	0.190	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.477	0.000
predicted_SO	0.260	-0.195

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.21), rates preserved: AVG=0.348 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 4.212

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	8.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	3.000	0.000	0.4211	0.5000	0.5263	0.4210	0.0000	0.0000	0.1579	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	14.000	4.000	0.000	3.000	6.000	3.000	2.000	0.3590	0.3953	0.4615	0.3590	0.0000	0.0769	0.0769	0.0513
season	0.20	33	-	139.000	41.000	8.000	2.000	15.000	16.000	4.000	15.000	0.2950	0.3125	0.3957	0.2950	0.0144	0.1079	0.0288	0.1079

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3710
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9170
predicted_AVG	0.3741
predicted_BB	0.4060
predicted_H	1.4660
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0110
predicted_OBP	0.4259
predicted_R	0.7650
predicted_RBI	0.1900
predicted_SLG	0.4775
predicted_SO	0.1550

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2420	0.3710	0.3258	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.2120	3.9170	4.0202	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3740	0.3741	0.3741	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1210	0.4060	0.3063	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.4600	1.4660	1.4639	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0110	0.0106	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4260	0.4259	0.4259	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4850	0.7650	0.6670	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1900	0.1900	0.1900	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4770	0.4775	0.4773	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4550	0.1550	0.2600	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.295

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260503_CLE@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	805779
playerID	805779
playerName	Jacob Wilson
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	OAK
teamID	20

Luis Severino (622663) · PITCHER · Starter · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 7

All-history rows before 20260505: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.714	1.000	0.286	2.000
predicted_IP	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.343	7.000	-1.343	-3.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	5.714	8.000	-4.714	-7.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	30.000	13.000	25.000	15.000	30.000	4.000	3.9000	1.3333	0.4333	0.8333	0.5000	1.0000	0.1333
last_10	0.35	7	38.333	19.000	32.000	23.000	40.000	4.000	4.4609	1.4348	0.4956	0.8348	0.6000	1.0435	0.1043
season	0.20	7	38.333	19.000	32.000	23.000	40.000	4.000	4.4609	1.4348	0.4956	0.8348	0.6000	1.0435	0.1043

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	3.1700
predicted_ER	2.6710
predicted_ERA	4.2085
predicted_H	4.7640
predicted_HR	0.6710
predicted_IP	5.7120
predicted_SO	5.8490
predicted_WHIP	1.3891

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	3.1700	3.1105	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	3.0000	2.6710	2.7861	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.2085	4.2085	form_only
predicted_H	7.0000	4.7640	5.5466	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.6710	0.4362	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.0000	5.7120	5.1128	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	5.8490	4.1519	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3891	1.3891	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.0
H	7
R	3
ER	3
BB	3
SO	1
HR	0
BF	22
Pitches	97

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	1
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	25
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	4.46
Pitching_Flyouts	5
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	7.0
Pitching_Pitches	103
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	8
Pitching_Strikes	71
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260429_KC@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	622663
playerID	622663
playerName	Luis Severino
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Hogan Harris (663687) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 19

All-history rows before 20260505: 19

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.316	1.000	1.684	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.737	0.100	0.263	0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	2.000	7.000	4.000	6.000	1.000	4.5000	2.7500	0.5000	1.7500	1.0000	1.5000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	8.667	3.000	8.000	6.000	9.000	2.000	3.1154	1.6154	0.3462	0.9231	0.6923	1.0385	0.2308
season	0.20	19	18.667	6.000	15.000	16.000	19.000	2.000	2.8929	1.6607	0.3214	0.8036	0.8571	1.0179	0.1071

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7430
predicted_ER	0.3530
predicted_ERA	3.6940
predicted_H	1.0930
predicted_HR	0.1850
predicted_IP	0.8600
predicted_SO	1.0680
predicted_WHIP	2.1350

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.7430	0.8329	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.3530	0.9294	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.6940	3.6940	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.0930	1.0604	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1850	0.4702	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.8600	0.9090	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0680	1.0442	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	2.1350	2.1350	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	19
Season rows before report date	19
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	2
ER	2
BB	1
SO	1
HR	1
BF	5
Pitches	24

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.89
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	2
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	20
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260502_CLE@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	663687
playerID	663687
playerName	Hogan Harris
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Jack Perkins (678022) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 8

All-history rows before 20260505: 8

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.500	0.000	-0.500
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.550	1.000	-0.550
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	2.125	1.000	-1.125

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 8

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	8.333	0.000	3.000	2.000	10.000	0.0000	0.6000	0.0000	0.3600	0.2400	1.2000
last_10	0.35	8	13.333	4.000	11.000	3.000	17.000	2.7000	1.0500	0.3000	0.8250	0.2250	1.2750
season	0.20	8	13.333	4.000	11.000	3.000	17.000	2.7000	1.0500	0.3000	0.8250	0.2250	1.2750

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3860
predicted_ER	0.2750
predicted_ERA	1.4850
predicted_H	1.0260
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.6670
predicted_SO	2.0690
predicted_WHIP	0.8475

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3860	0.2509	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2750	0.1788	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.4850	1.4850	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0260	0.6669	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.6670	1.4335	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	2.0690	1.6949	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8475	0.8475	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	8
Season rows before report date	8
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	8
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.70
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260430_KC@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	678022
playerID	678022
playerName	Jack Perkins
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Joel Kuhnel (669270) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 12

All-history rows before 20260505: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.842	1.000	0.158	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.417	0.000	1.583	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.667	2.000	6.000	4.000	2.000	3.1765	1.7647	0.3529	1.0588	0.7059	0.3529
last_10	0.35	10	11.333	3.000	10.000	4.000	4.000	2.3824	1.2353	0.2647	0.8823	0.3529	0.3529
season	0.20	12	12.667	3.000	10.000	4.000	5.000	2.1316	1.1053	0.2368	0.7895	0.3158	0.3947

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5640
predicted_ER	0.3340
predicted_ERA	2.6896
predicted_H	1.0540
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.1180
predicted_SO	0.4040
predicted_WHIP	1.4475

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5640	0.3666	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.3340	0.2171	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.6896	2.6896	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.0540	1.0351	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.1180	1.0767	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.4040	0.9626	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4475	1.4475	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.13
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_CLE@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	669270
playerID	669270
playerName	Joel Kuhnel
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Mark Leiter Jr. (643410) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team OAK

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 16

All-history rows before 20260505: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.562	0.000	1.438	2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.744	1.000	0.256	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.938	1.000	-0.938	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.333	1.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.000	2.0769	0.6923	0.2308	0.4615	0.2308	1.1539	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.667	4.000	6.000	4.000	13.000	1.000	4.1538	1.1538	0.4615	0.6923	0.4615	1.5000	0.1154
season	0.20	16	14.000	9.000	18.000	5.000	15.000	2.000	5.7857	1.6429	0.6429	1.2857	0.3571	1.0714	0.1429

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2920
predicted_ER	0.3420
predicted_ERA	3.5456
predicted_H	0.6140
predicted_HR	0.0600
predicted_IP	0.8680
predicted_SO	1.0930
predicted_WHIP	1.0439

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.2920	0.8898	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	0.3420	0.9223	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5456	3.5456	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	0.6140	1.0991	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0600	0.0390	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.8680	0.9142	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0930	0.7105	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0439	1.0439	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	2
ER	2
BB	2
SO	0
HR	0
BF	7
Pitches	35

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.79
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	10
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_CLE@OAK
game_type	full
mlbID	643410
playerID	643410
playerName	Mark Leiter Jr.
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	OAK
teamID	20

Home Team: PHI

Kyle Schwarber (656941) · BATTER · DH · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 35

All-history rows before 20260505: 35

System season_avg: 0.2130

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2126

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.171	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.171	0.000	0.829	1.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	3.629	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.629	4.000	1.371	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.265	0.400	0.400	Hitting_AVG	0.213	0.000	0.187	0.400
predicted_BB	0.714	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.714	0.000	-0.714	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.860	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.771	0.000	1.229	2.000
predicted_HR	0.220	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.314	0.000	0.686	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.375	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.359	0.000	0.041	0.400
predicted_R	0.629	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.629	0.000	0.371	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.571	0.000	1.429	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.569	1.200	1.200	Hitting_SLG	0.535	0.000	0.665	1.200
predicted_SO	1.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.400	1.000	-1.400	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.629	-
predicted_AVG	0.265	-
predicted_BB	0.714	-
predicted_H	0.860	-
predicted_HR	0.220	-
predicted_OBP	0.375	-
predicted_R	0.629	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.569	-
predicted_SO	1.400	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.242	0.071
predicted_3B	0.038	0.009
predicted_AB	3.731	0.102
predicted_AVG	0.265	0.000
predicted_BB	0.673	-0.041
predicted_H	0.953	0.093
predicted_HBP	0.024	-
predicted_HR	0.247	0.027
predicted_OBP	0.375	0.000
predicted_R	0.639	0.010
predicted_RBI	0.452	0.042
predicted_SLG	0.569	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.442	0.042

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.73), rates preserved: AVG=0.255 HR/AB=0.066

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=13.0, BvP AVG=0.231)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	9.000	0.3000	0.3636	0.5500	0.3000	0.0500	0.1000	0.1000	0.4500
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	9.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	7.000	9.000	11.000	0.2500	0.4000	0.6111	0.2500	0.0833	0.1389	0.2500	0.3056
season	0.20	35	-	127.000	27.000	6.000	1.000	11.000	20.000	22.000	25.000	49.000	0.2126	0.3590	0.5354	0.2126	0.0866	0.1575	0.1968	0.3858

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2800
predicted_3B	0.0430
predicted_AB	3.7860
predicted_AVG	0.2650
predicted_BB	0.6510
predicted_H	1.0030
predicted_HBP	0.0240
predicted_HR	0.2610
predicted_OBP	0.3754
predicted_R	0.6440
predicted_RBI	0.4740
predicted_SLG	0.5685
predicted_SO	1.4640

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1710	0.2800	0.2419	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0430	0.0381	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6290	3.7860	3.7310	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2650	0.2650	0.2650	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7140	0.6510	0.6731	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8600	1.0030	0.9529	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0240	0.0240	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2200	0.2610	0.2467	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3750	0.3754	0.3753	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6290	0.6440	0.6388	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.4740	0.4516	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5690	0.5685	0.5687	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.4000	1.4640	1.4416	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.213

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260504_PHI@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	656941
playerID	656941
playerName	Kyle Schwarber
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	PHI
teamID	21

Adolis García (666969) · BATTER · RF · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 33

All-history rows before 20260505: 33

System season_avg: 0.2380

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2377

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.152	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.152	0.000	-0.152	0.000
predicted_3B	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_AB	3.697	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.697	4.000	0.303	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.285	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.238	0.500	0.012	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.333	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.950	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.879	2.000	0.121	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.326	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.309	0.500	0.091	-0.100
predicted_R	0.273	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.273	0.000	0.727	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.303	0.000	1.697	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.332	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.344	0.500	-0.094	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.061	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.061	1.000	-0.061	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.152	-
predicted_3B	0.030	-
predicted_AB	3.697	-
predicted_AVG	0.285	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.950	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.326	-
predicted_R	0.273	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.332	-
predicted_SO	1.061	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.097	-0.055
predicted_3B	0.036	0.006
predicted_AB	3.877	0.180
predicted_AVG	0.285	0.000
predicted_BB	0.265	-0.068
predicted_H	1.069	0.119
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.012	0.002
predicted_OBP	0.326	-0.000
predicted_R	0.316	0.043
predicted_RBI	0.392	0.042
predicted_SLG	0.332	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.915	-0.146

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.276 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, BvP AVG=0.571)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.3000	0.3333	0.3000	0.3000	0.0000	0.1000	0.0500	0.1500
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	12.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	3.000	2.000	10.000	0.2927	0.3256	0.3659	0.2927	0.0000	0.1220	0.0488	0.2439
season	0.20	33	-	122.000	29.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	10.000	9.000	11.000	35.000	0.2377	0.3088	0.3443	0.2377	0.0164	0.0820	0.0902	0.2869

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0670
predicted_3B	0.0400
predicted_AB	3.9740
predicted_AVG	0.2850
predicted_BB	0.2290
predicted_H	1.1330
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.0130
predicted_OBP	0.3257
predicted_R	0.3390
predicted_RBI	0.4140
predicted_SLG	0.3319
predicted_SO	0.8360

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1520	0.0670	0.0968	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0300	0.0400	0.0365	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6970	3.9740	3.8771	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2850	0.2850	0.2850	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.2290	0.2654	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9500	1.1330	1.0690	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0130	0.0119	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3260	0.3257	0.3258	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2730	0.3390	0.3159	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.4140	0.3916	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3320	0.3319	0.3319	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0610	0.8360	0.9147	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.238

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260504_PHI@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	666969
playerID	666969
playerName	Adolis García
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	PHI
teamID	21

Brandon Marsh (669016) · BATTER · LF · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 28

All-history rows before 20260505: 28

System season_avg: 0.3080

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3084

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.214	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.821	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.821	4.000	1.179	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.343	0.200	0.200	Hitting_AVG	0.308	0.250	-0.108	-0.050
predicted_BB	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.140	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.179	1.000	-0.179	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.381	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.250	-0.133	-0.050
predicted_R	0.536	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.536	0.000	0.464	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.480	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.643	0.000	0.357	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.107	0.000	-0.107	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.496	0.200	0.200	Hitting_SLG	0.477	0.250	-0.277	-0.050
predicted_SO	0.786	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.786	0.000	0.214	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.214	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.821	-
predicted_AVG	0.343	-
predicted_BB	0.143	-
predicted_H	1.140	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.381	-
predicted_R	0.536	-
predicted_RBI	0.480	-
predicted_SLG	0.496	-
predicted_SO	0.786	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.269	0.055
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.797	-0.024
predicted_AVG	0.343	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.173	0.030
predicted_H	1.243	0.103
predicted_HBP	0.135	-
predicted_HR	0.090	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.381	0.000
predicted_R	0.653	0.117
predicted_RBI	0.524	0.044
predicted_SLG	0.496	0.000
predicted_SO	0.751	-0.035

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.325 HR/AB=0.023

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, BvP AVG=0.167)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.821

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	6.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	0.3333	0.3810	0.4444	0.3333	0.0000	0.1111	0.0556	0.2222
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	15.000	2.000	2.000	7.000	7.000	2.000	6.000	0.3750	0.4091	0.5750	0.3750	0.0500	0.1750	0.0500	0.1500
season	0.20	28	-	107.000	33.000	6.000	4.000	18.000	15.000	4.000	22.000	0.3084	0.3333	0.4766	0.3084	0.0374	0.1682	0.0374	0.2056

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2980
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7840
predicted_AVG	0.3429
predicted_BB	0.1890
predicted_H	1.2980
predicted_HBP	0.1350
predicted_HR	0.0950
predicted_OBP	0.3813
predicted_R	0.7160
predicted_RBI	0.5480
predicted_SLG	0.4965
predicted_SO	0.7330

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2140	0.2980	0.2686	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8210	3.7840	3.7969	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3430	0.3429	0.3429	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1430	0.1890	0.1729	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1400	1.2980	1.2427	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1350	0.1350	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0950	0.0897	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3810	0.3813	0.3812	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5360	0.7160	0.6530	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4800	0.5480	0.5242	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4960	0.4965	0.4963	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7860	0.7330	0.7515	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.308

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260504_PHI@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	669016
playerID	669016
playerName	Brandon Marsh
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	PHI
teamID	21

Justin Crawford (702222) · BATTER · CF · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 29

All-history rows before 20260505: 29

System season_avg: 0.2630

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2626

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.207	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.207	0.000	-0.207	0.000
predicted_3B	0.069	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.069	0.000	-0.069	0.000
predicted_AB	3.414	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.414	3.000	-0.414	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.281	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.263	0.000	0.071	0.333
predicted_BB	0.276	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.276	0.000	0.724	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.069	0.000	-0.069	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.897	0.000	0.103	1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.317	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.330	0.000	0.170	0.500
predicted_R	0.276	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.276	0.000	-0.276	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.340	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.241	0.000	-0.241	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.403	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.364	0.000	-0.030	0.333
predicted_SO	0.724	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.724	2.000	-0.724	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.207	-
predicted_3B	0.069	-
predicted_AB	3.414	-
predicted_AVG	0.281	-
predicted_BB	0.276	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.317	-
predicted_R	0.276	-
predicted_RBI	0.340	-
predicted_SLG	0.403	-
predicted_SO	0.724	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.183	-0.024
predicted_3B	0.115	0.046
predicted_AB	3.602	0.188
predicted_AVG	0.281	0.000
predicted_BB	0.217	-0.059
predicted_H	0.929	0.209
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.317	0.000
predicted_R	0.156	-0.120
predicted_RBI	0.439	0.099
predicted_SLG	0.403	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.644	-0.080

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.60), rates preserved: AVG=0.258 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.3333	0.3684	0.5000	0.3333	0.1667	0.0556	0.1111
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	0.2250	0.2439	0.3000	0.2250	0.1250	0.0250	0.2000
season	0.20	29	-	99.000	26.000	6.000	2.000	7.000	8.000	8.000	21.000	0.2626	0.3303	0.3636	0.2626	0.0707	0.0808	0.2121

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1700
predicted_3B	0.1400
predicted_AB	3.7030
predicted_AVG	0.2813
predicted_BB	0.1850
predicted_H	1.0410
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.3172
predicted_R	0.0920
predicted_RBI	0.4920
predicted_SLG	0.4027
predicted_SO	0.6010

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2070	0.1700	0.1830	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0690	0.1400	0.1152	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4140	3.7030	3.6019	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2810	0.2813	0.2812	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2760	0.1850	0.2168	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	1.0410	0.9286	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3170	0.3172	0.3171	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2760	0.0920	0.1564	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3400	0.4920	0.4388	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4030	0.4027	0.4028	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7240	0.6010	0.6441	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.263

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260504_PHI@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	702222
playerID	702222
playerName	Justin Crawford
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	PHI
teamID	21

Trea Turner (607208) · BATTER · SS · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 34

All-history rows before 20260505: 34

System season_avg: 0.2360

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2357

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.176	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.118	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	4.118	4.000	0.882	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.192	0.400	0.400	Hitting_AVG	0.236	0.000	0.164	0.400
predicted_BB	0.353	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.353	0.000	-0.353	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.730	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.971	0.000	1.029	2.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.227	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.296	0.000	0.104	0.400
predicted_R	0.618	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.618	0.000	0.382	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.260	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.324	0.000	-0.324	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.088	0.000	-0.088	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.358	0.400	0.400	Hitting_SLG	0.364	0.000	0.036	0.400
predicted_SO	0.912	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.912	2.000	0.088	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.176	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.118	-
predicted_AVG	0.192	-
predicted_BB	0.353	-
predicted_H	0.730	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.227	-
predicted_R	0.618	-
predicted_RBI	0.260	-
predicted_SLG	0.358	-
predicted_SO	0.912	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.166	-0.010
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.219	0.101
predicted_AVG	0.192	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.264	-0.089
predicted_H	0.788	0.058
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.175	0.015
predicted_OBP	0.227	0.000
predicted_R	0.632	0.014
predicted_RBI	0.284	0.024
predicted_SLG	0.358	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.095	0.183

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.22), rates preserved: AVG=0.187 HR/AB=0.041

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, BvP AVG=0.375)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 4.118

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.000	7.000	0.1364	0.1364	0.3182	0.1364	0.0454	0.0454	0.0000	0.3182
last_10	0.35	10	-	42.000	10.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	7.000	4.000	11.000	0.2381	0.3043	0.4048	0.2381	0.0476	0.0952	0.0952	0.2619
season	0.20	34	-	140.000	33.000	6.000	4.000	11.000	21.000	12.000	31.000	0.2357	0.2961	0.3643	0.2357	0.0286	0.0786	0.0857	0.2214

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1600
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.2740
predicted_AVG	0.1919
predicted_BB	0.2160
predicted_H	0.8200
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1830
predicted_OBP	0.2271
predicted_R	0.6400
predicted_RBI	0.2970
predicted_SLG	0.3577
predicted_SO	1.1930

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1760	0.1600	0.1656	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1180	4.2740	4.2194	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1920	0.1919	0.1919	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3530	0.2160	0.2639	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7300	0.8200	0.7885	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1830	0.1749	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2270	0.2271	0.2271	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6180	0.6400	0.6323	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2600	0.2970	0.2841	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3580	0.3577	0.3578	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9120	1.1930	1.0947	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.236

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	1
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260504_PHI@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	607208
playerID	607208
playerName	Trea Turner
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	PHI
teamID	21

Bryce Harper (547180) · BATTER · 1B · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 35

All-history rows before 20260505: 35

System season_avg: 0.2710

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2713

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.257	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.257	1.000	0.743	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	3.686	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.686	4.000	0.314	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.291	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.271	0.750	0.229	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.543	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.543	0.000	0.457	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_H	0.980	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.000	3.000	1.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	1.000	-0.200	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.412	0.600	0.600	Hitting_OBP	0.362	0.750	0.238	-0.150
predicted_R	0.543	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.543	1.000	0.457	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.420	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.571	1.000	1.429	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.594	0.750	0.750	Hitting_SLG	0.519	1.750	0.231	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.714	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.714	0.000	-0.714	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.257	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.686	-
predicted_AVG	0.291	-
predicted_BB	0.543	-
predicted_H	0.980	-
predicted_HR	0.190	-
predicted_OBP	0.412	-
predicted_R	0.543	-
predicted_RBI	0.420	-
predicted_SLG	0.594	-
predicted_SO	0.714	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.394	0.137
predicted_3B	0.014	-0.015
predicted_AB	3.605	-0.081
predicted_AVG	0.291	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.696	0.153
predicted_H	1.016	0.036
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.197	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.412	0.000
predicted_R	0.596	0.053
predicted_RBI	0.434	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.594	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.782	0.068

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.276 HR/AB=0.053

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, BvP AVG=0.375)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	-1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	5.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	4.000	0.2941	0.4545	0.6471	0.2941	0.0588	0.0588	0.2941	0.2353
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	11.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	7.000	7.000	6.000	9.000	0.2973	0.3864	0.5676	0.2973	0.0541	0.1892	0.1622	0.2432
season	0.20	35	-	129.000	35.000	9.000	1.000	7.000	20.000	19.000	19.000	25.000	0.2713	0.3624	0.5194	0.2713	0.0543	0.1550	0.1473	0.1938

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4670
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.5620
predicted_AVG	0.2907
predicted_BB	0.7790
predicted_H	1.0350
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.2000
predicted_OBP	0.4122
predicted_R	0.6240
predicted_RBI	0.4410
predicted_SLG	0.5937
predicted_SO	0.8180

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2570	0.4670	0.3935	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0060	0.0140	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6860	3.5620	3.6054	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2910	0.2907	0.2908	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5430	0.7790	0.6964	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9800	1.0350	1.0157	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1900	0.2000	0.1965	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4120	0.4122	0.4121	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5430	0.6240	0.5957	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4200	0.4410	0.4336	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5940	0.5937	0.5938	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7140	0.8180	0.7816	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.271

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.75
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	7
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260504_PHI@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	547180
playerID	547180
playerName	Bryce Harper
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	PHI
teamID	21

Alec Bohm (664761) · BATTER · 3B · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 32

All-history rows before 20260505: 32

System season_avg: 0.1580

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1583

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.094	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.094	0.000	-0.094	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.750	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.750	4.000	-0.750	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.166	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.158	0.000	0.175	0.333
predicted_BB	0.281	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.281	0.000	0.719	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.480	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.594	0.000	0.406	1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.212	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.224	0.000	0.276	0.500
predicted_R	0.219	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.219	0.000	0.781	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.390	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.469	0.000	-0.469	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.194	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.208	0.000	0.125	0.333
predicted_SO	0.656	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.656	0.000	-0.656	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.094	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.750	-
predicted_AVG	0.166	-
predicted_BB	0.281	-
predicted_H	0.480	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.212	-
predicted_R	0.219	-
predicted_RBI	0.390	-
predicted_SLG	0.194	-
predicted_SO	0.656	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.090	-0.004
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.799	0.049
predicted_AVG	0.166	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.262	-0.020
predicted_H	0.580	0.100
predicted_HBP	0.013	-
predicted_HR	0.004	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.212	-0.000
predicted_R	0.209	-0.010
predicted_RBI	0.465	0.075
predicted_SLG	0.194	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.649	-0.007

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.153 HR/AB=0.001

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.1579	0.1905	0.1579	0.1579	0.0000	0.1579	0.0526	0.1579
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	7.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	7.000	0.1795	0.2326	0.2308	0.1795	0.0000	0.1026	0.0769	0.1795
season	0.20	32	-	120.000	19.000	3.000	1.000	15.000	7.000	9.000	21.000	0.1583	0.2239	0.2083	0.1583	0.0083	0.1250	0.0750	0.1750

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0880
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8250
predicted_AVG	0.1655
predicted_BB	0.2510
predicted_H	0.6330
predicted_HBP	0.0130
predicted_HR	0.0060
predicted_OBP	0.2119
predicted_R	0.2040
predicted_RBI	0.5050
predicted_SLG	0.1935
predicted_SO	0.6460

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0940	0.0880	0.0901	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7500	3.8250	3.7988	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1660	0.1655	0.1657	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2810	0.2510	0.2615	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4800	0.6330	0.5795	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0130	0.0130	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0060	0.0039	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2120	0.2119	0.2119	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2190	0.2040	0.2092	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3900	0.5050	0.4647	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1940	0.1935	0.1937	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6560	0.6460	0.6495	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.158

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260504_PHI@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	664761
playerID	664761
playerName	Alec Bohm
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	PHI
teamID	21

J.T. Realmuto (592663) · BATTER · C · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 18

All-history rows before 20260505: 18

System season_avg: 0.2500

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2500

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.111	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.333	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.333	3.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.224	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.250	0.333	0.083	0.000
predicted_BB	0.278	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.278	0.000	0.722	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.620	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.833	1.000	0.167	0.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.056	0.000	-0.056	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.239	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.324	0.250	0.176	0.250
predicted_R	0.333	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.333	1.000	0.667	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.278	1.000	-0.278	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.251	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.333	0.333	0.000	0.000
predicted_SO	0.667	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.111	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.333	-
predicted_AVG	0.224	-
predicted_BB	0.278	-
predicted_H	0.620	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.239	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.251	-
predicted_SO	0.667	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.075	-0.036
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.332	-0.001
predicted_AVG	0.224	0.000
predicted_BB	0.134	-0.144
predicted_H	0.703	0.083
predicted_HBP	0.022	-
predicted_HR	0.011	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.239	0.000
predicted_R	0.264	-0.069
predicted_RBI	0.264	0.034
predicted_SLG	0.251	0.000
predicted_SO	0.511	-0.156

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.33), rates preserved: AVG=0.211 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	0.1875	0.1875	0.1875	0.1875	0.0000	0.0625	0.0000	0.0625
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	9.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	6.000	0.2571	0.2571	0.2857	0.2571	0.0000	0.1143	0.0000	0.1714
season	0.20	18	-	60.000	15.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	6.000	5.000	12.000	0.2500	0.3235	0.3333	0.2500	0.0167	0.0833	0.0833	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0560
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.3320
predicted_AVG	0.2244
predicted_BB	0.0560
predicted_H	0.7480
predicted_HBP	0.0220
predicted_HR	0.0110
predicted_OBP	0.2391
predicted_R	0.2270
predicted_RBI	0.2820
predicted_SLG	0.2510
predicted_SO	0.4270

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1110	0.0560	0.0752	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3330	3.3320	3.3323	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2240	0.2244	0.2243	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2780	0.0560	0.1337	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6200	0.7480	0.7032	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0220	0.0220	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0110	0.0106	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2390	0.2391	0.2391	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.2270	0.2641	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.2820	0.2638	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2510	0.2510	0.2510	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6670	0.4270	0.5110	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.25

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260503_PHI@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	592663
playerID	592663
playerName	J.T. Realmuto
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	PHI
teamID	21

Bryson Stott (681082) · BATTER · 2B · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 26

All-history rows before 20260505: 26

System season_avg: 0.1980

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1979

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.077	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_3B	0.077	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_AB	3.692	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.692	4.000	-0.692	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.161	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.198	0.000	-0.198	0.000
predicted_BB	0.231	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.231	0.000	0.769	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.480	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.731	0.000	-0.731	0.000
predicted_HR	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.208	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.252	0.000	-0.002	0.250
predicted_R	0.308	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.308	0.000	-0.308	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.770	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.385	0.000	-0.385	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.442	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.323	0.000	-0.323	0.000
predicted_SO	0.692	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.692	1.000	0.308	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.077	-
predicted_3B	0.077	-
predicted_AB	3.692	-
predicted_AVG	0.161	-
predicted_BB	0.231	-
predicted_H	0.480	-
predicted_HR	0.230	-
predicted_OBP	0.208	-
predicted_R	0.308	-
predicted_RBI	0.770	-
predicted_SLG	0.442	-
predicted_SO	0.692	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.037	-0.040
predicted_3B	0.081	0.004
predicted_AB	3.585	-0.107
predicted_AVG	0.161	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.215	-0.016
predicted_H	0.536	0.056
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.256	0.026
predicted_OBP	0.208	0.000
predicted_R	0.440	0.132
predicted_RBI	0.860	0.090
predicted_SLG	0.442	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.628	-0.064

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.69), rates preserved: AVG=0.145 HR/AB=0.069

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, BvP AVG=0.250)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	6.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	0.1176	0.1667	0.4706	0.1177	0.1177	0.3529	0.0588	0.1177
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	7.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	8.000	5.000	2.000	8.000	0.1944	0.2368	0.4722	0.1944	0.0556	0.2222	0.0556	0.2222
season	0.20	26	-	96.000	19.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	10.000	8.000	6.000	18.000	0.1979	0.2524	0.3229	0.1979	0.0208	0.1042	0.0625	0.1875

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0150
predicted_3B	0.0830
predicted_AB	3.5280
predicted_AVG	0.1605
predicted_BB	0.2060
predicted_H	0.5670
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.2700
predicted_OBP	0.2084
predicted_R	0.5110
predicted_RBI	0.9080
predicted_SLG	0.4416
predicted_SO	0.5940

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0770	0.0150	0.0367	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0770	0.0830	0.0809	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6920	3.5280	3.5854	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1610	0.1605	0.1607	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2310	0.2060	0.2147	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4800	0.5670	0.5365	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2300	0.2700	0.2560	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2080	0.2084	0.2083	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3080	0.5110	0.4400	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7700	0.9080	0.8597	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4420	0.4416	0.4417	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6920	0.5940	0.6283	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.198

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260504_PHI@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	681082
playerID	681082
playerName	Bryson Stott
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	PHI
teamID	21

Cristopher Sánchez (650911) · PITCHER · Starter · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 7

All-history rows before 20260505: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.857	2.000	-1.857	-2.000
predicted_IP	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.629	6.200	-1.629	-2.200
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_SO	7.143	7.000	-4.143	-4.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	29.000	12.000	41.000	9.000	33.000	3.000	3.7241	1.7241	0.4138	1.4138	0.3103	1.1379	0.1035
last_10	0.35	7	40.333	13.000	48.000	13.000	50.000	3.000	2.9008	1.5124	0.3223	1.1901	0.3223	1.2397	0.0744
season	0.20	7	40.333	13.000	48.000	13.000	50.000	3.000	2.9008	1.5124	0.3223	1.1901	0.3223	1.2397	0.0744

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.8320
predicted_ER	2.1010
predicted_ERA	3.2713
predicted_H	7.4590
predicted_HR	0.5050
predicted_IP	5.7790
predicted_SO	6.9000
predicted_WHIP	1.6077

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	1.8320	2.2408	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	2.1010	1.3657	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2713	3.2713	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	7.4590	6.2484	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.5050	0.3283	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.0000	5.7790	5.1563	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	6.9000	5.5350	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.6077	1.6077	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.0
H	4
R	0
ER	0
BB	3
SO	3
HR	0
BF	19
Pitches	93

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	27
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	2.90
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	8
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.2
Pitching_Pitches	85
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	7
Pitching_Strikes	57
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260430_SF@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	650911
playerID	650911
playerName	Cristopher Sánchez
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

Brad Keller (641745) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 15

All-history rows before 20260505: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.467	0.000	-0.467	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.900	1.000	0.100	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.333	3.000	4.000	1.000	6.000	1.000	5.0625	0.9375	0.5625	0.7500	0.1875	1.1250	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	9.667	4.000	7.000	3.000	11.000	1.000	3.7241	1.0345	0.4138	0.7241	0.3103	1.1379	0.1035
season	0.20	15	14.667	7.000	12.000	4.000	15.000	2.000	4.2955	1.0909	0.4773	0.8182	0.2727	1.0227	0.1364

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2510
predicted_ER	0.5000
predicted_ERA	4.4407
predicted_H	0.7650
predicted_HR	0.1500
predicted_IP	1.0140
predicted_SO	1.1250
predicted_WHIP	1.0021

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2510	0.1632	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5000	0.3250	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.4407	4.4407	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7650	0.4973	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1500	0.0975	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0140	1.0091	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.1250	1.4312	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0021	1.0021	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	4.30
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	10
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_PHI@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	641745
playerID	641745
playerName	Brad Keller
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

Jonathan Bowlan (680742) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 9

All-history rows before 20260505: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.889	3.000	0.111	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.756	0.200	0.244	0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.667	5.000	5.000	3.000	5.000	9.6429	1.7143	1.0714	1.0714	0.6429	1.0714
last_10	0.35	9	8.667	8.000	11.000	3.000	9.000	8.3077	1.6154	0.9231	1.2692	0.3462	1.0385
season	0.20	9	8.667	8.000	11.000	3.000	9.000	8.3077	1.6154	0.9231	1.2692	0.3462	1.0385

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4560
predicted_ER	0.9400
predicted_ERA	8.9085
predicted_H	1.1210
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	0.9500
predicted_SO	1.0000
predicted_WHIP	1.6599

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4560	0.2964	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.9400	0.9610	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	8.9085	8.9085	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1210	0.7287	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9500	0.9675	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0000	0.6500	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.6599	1.6599	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	8

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	8.31
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	31
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	18
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260501_PHI@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	680742
playerID	680742
playerName	Jonathan Bowlan
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

José Alvarado (621237) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 16

All-history rows before 20260505: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.569	1.000	0.431	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.875	1.000	-0.875	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.333	0.000	6.000	2.000	4.000	0.0000	1.8462	0.0000	1.3846	0.4615	0.9231
last_10	0.35	10	7.333	3.000	11.000	3.000	7.000	3.6818	1.9091	0.4091	1.5000	0.4091	0.9546
season	0.20	16	11.667	8.000	18.000	6.000	14.000	6.1714	2.0571	0.6857	1.5429	0.5143	1.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3600
predicted_ER	0.2220
predicted_ERA	2.5229
predicted_H	1.1540
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	0.7930
predicted_SO	0.7840
predicted_WHIP	1.9104

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3600	0.2340	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2220	0.1443	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.5229	2.5229	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1540	0.7501	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.7930	0.8655	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.7840	0.5096	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.9104	1.9104	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	6.17
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	8
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_PHI@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	621237
playerID	621237
playerName	José Alvarado
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

Orion Kerkering (689147) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 13

All-history rows before 20260505: 13

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.231	0.000	-0.231
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.885	1.000	0.115
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.692	0.000	-0.692

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.000	0.0000	0.6000	0.0000	0.4000	0.2000	0.8000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.667	1.000	6.000	5.000	8.000	1.000	0.9310	1.1379	0.1035	0.6207	0.5172	0.8276	0.1035
season	0.20	13	12.667	3.000	9.000	6.000	9.000	1.000	2.1316	1.1842	0.2368	0.7105	0.4737	0.7105	0.0790

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3600
predicted_ER	0.0820
predicted_ERA	0.7522
predicted_H	0.5300
predicted_HR	0.0510
predicted_IP	0.9830
predicted_SO	0.7780
predicted_WHIP	0.9051

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3600	0.2340	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0820	0.0533	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.7522	0.7522	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.5300	0.3445	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0510	0.0331	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9830	0.9889	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.7780	0.5057	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9051	0.9051	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.13
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	9
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_PHI@MIA
game_type	full
mlbID	689147
playerID	689147
playerName	Orion Kerkering
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

Tim Mayza (641835) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PHI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 15

All-history rows before 20260505: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.467	0.000	-0.467	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.153	2.000	-0.153	-1.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.200	2.000	-0.200	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	3.000	6.000	3.000	6.000	2.000	4.5000	1.5000	0.5000	1.0000	0.5000	1.0000	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	11.000	7.000	11.000	6.000	10.000	2.000	5.7273	1.5455	0.6364	1.0000	0.5454	0.9091	0.1818
season	0.20	15	18.000	7.000	12.000	7.000	18.000	2.000	3.5000	1.0556	0.3889	0.6667	0.3889	1.0000	0.1111

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5750
predicted_ER	0.6120
predicted_ERA	4.7296
predicted_H	1.0870
predicted_HR	0.2750
predicted_IP	1.1650
predicted_SO	1.1280
predicted_WHIP	1.4270

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.5750	0.7237	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6120	0.3978	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.7296	4.7296	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0870	0.7066	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2750	0.1788	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.1650	1.1073	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1280	1.0832	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4270	1.4270	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	9
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.50
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	33
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	19
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260430_SF@PHI_2
game_type	full
mlbID	641835
playerID	641835
playerName	Tim Mayza
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	PHI
teamID	21

20260505_PIT@ARI

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 2, "confidence": 0.7155473025896839, "home_win_probability": 0.2844526974103161, "away_win_probability": 0.7155473025896839, "predicted_score_text": "PIT 6 - 2 ARI", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "predicted_score_text": "PIT 6 - 3 ARI", "confidence": 0.7155473025896839, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "PIT 6 - 3 ARI", "winner": "PIT"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 2, "score_text": "PIT 6 - 2 ARI", "winner": "PIT"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": -1, "total_run_delta": -1, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Away Team: PIT

Marcell Ozuna (542303) · BATTER · DH · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 27

All-history rows before 20260505: 27

System season_avg: 0.1910

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1909

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.148	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.148	0.000	-0.148	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.074	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	4.074	3.000	0.926	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.235	0.400	0.400	Hitting_AVG	0.191	0.333	0.209	0.067
predicted_BB	0.296	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.296	0.000	-0.296	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.778	1.000	1.222	1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.111	0.000	0.889	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.294	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.252	0.333	0.148	0.067
predicted_R	0.370	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.370	0.000	0.630	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.640	4.000	4.000	Hitting_RBI	0.481	0.000	3.519	4.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.408	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.309	0.333	0.691	0.667
predicted_SO	1.148	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.148	0.000	-0.148	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.148	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.074	-
predicted_AVG	0.235	-
predicted_BB	0.296	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.294	-
predicted_R	0.370	-
predicted_RBI	0.640	-
predicted_SLG	0.408	-
predicted_SO	1.148	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.233	0.085
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.117	0.043
predicted_AVG	0.235	0.000
predicted_BB	0.304	0.008
predicted_H	0.923	0.093
predicted_HBP	0.043	-
predicted_HR	0.141	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.294	0.000
predicted_R	0.501	0.131
predicted_RBI	0.713	0.073
predicted_SLG	0.408	0.000
predicted_SO	1.140	-0.008

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.12), rates preserved: AVG=0.224 HR/AB=0.034

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	4.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 4.074

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	2.000	5.000	0.2857	0.3478	0.5238	0.2857	0.0476	0.2381	0.0952	0.2381
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	4.000	2.000	13.000	0.1951	0.2500	0.3171	0.1951	0.0244	0.1463	0.0488	0.3171
season	0.20	27	-	110.000	21.000	4.000	3.000	13.000	10.000	8.000	31.000	0.1909	0.2521	0.3091	0.1909	0.0273	0.1182	0.0727	0.2818

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2780
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.1400
predicted_AVG	0.2350
predicted_BB	0.3080
predicted_H	0.9730
predicted_HBP	0.0430
predicted_HR	0.1470
predicted_OBP	0.2944
predicted_R	0.5710
predicted_RBI	0.7530
predicted_SLG	0.4085
predicted_SO	1.1360

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1480	0.2780	0.2325	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0740	4.1400	4.1169	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2350	0.2350	0.2350	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2960	0.3080	0.3038	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	0.9730	0.9229	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0430	0.0430	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1470	0.1411	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2940	0.2944	0.2943	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3700	0.5710	0.5007	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6400	0.7530	0.7134	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4080	0.4085	0.4083	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1480	1.1360	1.1402	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	4
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.191

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260503_CIN@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	542303
playerID	542303
playerName	Marcell Ozuna
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	PIT
teamID	22

Joey Bart (663698) · BATTER · C · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 13

All-history rows before 20260505: 13

System season_avg: 0.2200

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2195

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.077	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.154	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.154	2.000	0.846	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.279	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.220	0.500	0.280	0.000
predicted_BB	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.680	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.692	1.000	1.308	1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.077	0.000	-0.077	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.304	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.273	0.500	0.227	0.000
predicted_R	0.385	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.385	0.000	0.615	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.371	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.317	0.500	0.183	0.000
predicted_SO	1.154	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.154	0.000	-0.154	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.077	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.154	-
predicted_AVG	0.279	-
predicted_BB	0.154	-
predicted_H	0.680	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.304	-
predicted_R	0.385	-
predicted_RBI	0.080	-
predicted_SLG	0.371	-
predicted_SO	1.154	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.120	0.043
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.142	-0.012
predicted_AVG	0.279	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.096	-0.058
predicted_H	0.806	0.126
predicted_HBP	0.049	-
predicted_HR	0.046	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.304	0.000
predicted_R	0.394	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.091	0.011
predicted_SLG	0.371	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.996	-0.158

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.15), rates preserved: AVG=0.256 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	3.000	0.3333	0.3333	0.4000	0.3333	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	12.000	0.2424	0.2857	0.3636	0.2424	0.0303	0.0606	0.0303	0.3636
season	0.20	13	-	41.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	2.000	15.000	0.2195	0.2727	0.3171	0.2195	0.0244	0.0488	0.0488	0.3659

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1430
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.1360
predicted_AVG	0.2787
predicted_BB	0.0640
predicted_H	0.8740
predicted_HBP	0.0490
predicted_HR	0.0490
predicted_OBP	0.3045
predicted_R	0.3980
predicted_RBI	0.0970
predicted_SLG	0.3707
predicted_SO	0.9110

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0770	0.1430	0.1199	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1540	3.1360	3.1423	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2790	0.2787	0.2788	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1540	0.0640	0.0955	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6800	0.8740	0.8061	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0490	0.0490	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0490	0.0459	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3040	0.3045	0.3043	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3850	0.3980	0.3935	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0800	0.0970	0.0911	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3710	0.3707	0.3708	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1540	0.9110	0.9960	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260503_CIN@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	663698
playerID	663698
playerName	Joey Bart
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	PIT
teamID	22

Bryan Reynolds (668804) · BATTER · RF · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 34

All-history rows before 20260505: 34

System season_avg: 0.2620

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2623

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.147	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.147	0.000	-0.147	0.000
predicted_3B	0.059	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_AB	3.588	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.588	3.000	0.412	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.298	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.262	0.000	-0.012	0.250
predicted_BB	0.853	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.853	1.000	-0.853	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.980	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.941	0.000	0.059	1.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.474	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.409	0.250	-0.209	-0.050
predicted_R	0.765	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.765	0.000	0.235	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.740	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.647	0.000	0.353	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.617	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.434	0.000	-0.184	0.250
predicted_SO	1.206	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.206	2.000	0.794	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.147	-
predicted_3B	0.059	-
predicted_AB	3.588	-
predicted_AVG	0.298	-
predicted_BB	0.853	-
predicted_H	0.980	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.474	-
predicted_R	0.765	-
predicted_RBI	0.740	-
predicted_SLG	0.617	-
predicted_SO	1.206	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.313	0.166
predicted_3B	0.109	0.050
predicted_AB	3.526	-0.062
predicted_AVG	0.298	-0.000
predicted_BB	1.036	0.183
predicted_H	1.020	0.040
predicted_HBP	0.048	-
predicted_HR	0.145	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.474	0.000
predicted_R	0.946	0.181
predicted_RBI	0.769	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.617	0.000
predicted_SO	1.285	0.079

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.59), rates preserved: AVG=0.284 HR/AB=0.040

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, BvP AVG=0.500)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	1.000	1.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	6.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	6.000	6.000	7.000	0.3333	0.5000	0.7778	0.3333	0.0556	0.2778	0.3333	0.3889
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	9.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	10.000	12.000	13.000	0.2727	0.4783	0.5152	0.2727	0.0303	0.1818	0.3636	0.3939
season	0.20	34	-	122.000	32.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	22.000	26.000	29.000	41.000	0.2623	0.4091	0.4344	0.2623	0.0328	0.1803	0.2377	0.3361

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4020
predicted_3B	0.1360
predicted_AB	3.4930
predicted_AVG	0.2979
predicted_BB	1.1340
predicted_H	1.0410
predicted_HBP	0.0480
predicted_HR	0.1470
predicted_OBP	0.4742
predicted_R	1.0430
predicted_RBI	0.7850
predicted_SLG	0.6172
predicted_SO	1.3280

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1470	0.4020	0.3128	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0590	0.1360	0.1091	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5880	3.4930	3.5263	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2980	0.2979	0.2979	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.8530	1.1340	1.0356	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9800	1.0410	1.0196	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0480	0.0480	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1470	0.1446	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4740	0.4742	0.4741	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7650	1.0430	0.9457	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7400	0.7850	0.7693	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6170	0.6172	0.6171	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2060	1.3280	1.2853	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	2
SF	1
HBP	0
season_avg	0.262

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260503_CIN@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	668804
playerID	668804
playerName	Bryan Reynolds
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	PIT
teamID	22

Nick Gonzales (693304) · BATTER · 2B · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 29

All-history rows before 20260505: 29

System season_avg: 0.3330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3333

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.172	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.172	0.000	-0.172	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.931	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	3.931	3.000	1.069	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.352	0.400	0.400	Hitting_AVG	0.333	0.000	0.067	0.400
predicted_BB	0.241	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.241	0.000	-0.241	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_H	1.250	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.310	0.000	0.690	2.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.439	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.382	0.000	0.018	0.400
predicted_R	0.483	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.483	0.000	0.517	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.470	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.586	0.000	-0.586	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.069	0.000	-0.069	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.379	0.400	0.400	Hitting_SLG	0.377	0.000	0.023	0.400
predicted_SO	0.793	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.793	1.000	1.207	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.172	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.931	-
predicted_AVG	0.352	-
predicted_BB	0.241	-
predicted_H	1.250	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.439	-
predicted_R	0.483	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.379	-
predicted_SO	0.793	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.127	-0.045
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.885	-0.046
predicted_AVG	0.352	0.000
predicted_BB	0.383	0.142
predicted_H	1.322	0.072
predicted_HBP	0.140	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.439	0.000
predicted_R	0.544	0.061
predicted_RBI	0.493	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.379	0.000
predicted_SO	0.797	0.004

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.93), rates preserved: AVG=0.336 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.931

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	6.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	0.3158	0.4348	0.3158	0.3158	0.1053	0.1579	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	16.000	2.000	6.000	6.000	4.000	8.000	0.4103	0.4773	0.4615	0.4103	0.1538	0.1026	0.2051
season	0.20	29	-	114.000	38.000	5.000	17.000	14.000	7.000	23.000	0.3333	0.3821	0.3772	0.3333	0.1491	0.0614	0.2018

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1030
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8610
predicted_AVG	0.3524
predicted_BB	0.4600
predicted_H	1.3610
predicted_HBP	0.1400
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.4391
predicted_R	0.5770
predicted_RBI	0.5060
predicted_SLG	0.3791
predicted_SO	0.7990

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1720	0.1030	0.1271	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9310	3.8610	3.8855	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3520	0.3524	0.3523	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2410	0.4600	0.3834	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2500	1.3610	1.3222	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1400	0.1400	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4390	0.4391	0.4391	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4830	0.5770	0.5441	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.5060	0.4934	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3790	0.3791	0.3791	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7930	0.7990	0.7969	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.333

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260503_CIN@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	693304
playerID	693304
playerName	Nick Gonzales
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	PIT
teamID	22

Ryan O'Hearn (656811) · BATTER · 1B · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 32

All-history rows before 20260505: 32

System season_avg: 0.3080

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3083

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.156	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.156	0.000	-0.156	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.750	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.750	3.000	0.250	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.265	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.308	0.000	-0.058	0.250
predicted_BB	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.156	0.000	-0.156	1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.156	0.000	-0.156	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.334	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.388	0.000	0.012	0.400
predicted_R	0.625	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.625	0.000	-0.625	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.670	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.364	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.475	0.000	-0.225	0.250
predicted_SO	0.844	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.844	2.000	1.156	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.156	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.750	-
predicted_AVG	0.265	-
predicted_BB	0.500	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.334	-
predicted_R	0.625	-
predicted_RBI	0.670	-
predicted_SLG	0.364	-
predicted_SO	0.844	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.179	0.023
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.938	0.188
predicted_AVG	0.265	0.000
predicted_BB	0.426	-0.074
predicted_H	1.011	0.111
predicted_HBP	0.042	-
predicted_HR	0.066	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.334	-0.000
predicted_R	0.738	0.113
predicted_RBI	0.749	0.079
predicted_SLG	0.364	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.004	0.160

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.94), rates preserved: AVG=0.257 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	4.000	4.000	2.000	6.000	0.2381	0.3043	0.2857	0.2381	0.0000	0.1905	0.0952	0.2857
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	11.000	2.000	1.000	8.000	9.000	3.000	11.000	0.2750	0.3409	0.4000	0.2750	0.0250	0.2000	0.0750	0.2750
season	0.20	32	-	120.000	37.000	5.000	5.000	24.000	20.000	16.000	27.000	0.3083	0.3885	0.4750	0.3083	0.0417	0.2000	0.1333	0.2250

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1910
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.0400
predicted_AVG	0.2651
predicted_BB	0.3870
predicted_H	1.0710
predicted_HBP	0.0420
predicted_HR	0.0690
predicted_OBP	0.3339
predicted_R	0.7990
predicted_RBI	0.7910
predicted_SLG	0.3636
predicted_SO	1.0900

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1560	0.1910	0.1788	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7500	4.0400	3.9385	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2650	0.2651	0.2651	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5000	0.3870	0.4265	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	1.0710	1.0111	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0420	0.0420	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0690	0.0659	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3340	0.3339	0.3339	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6250	0.7990	0.7381	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6700	0.7910	0.7487	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3640	0.3636	0.3637	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8440	1.0900	1.0039	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.308

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260503_CIN@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	656811
playerID	656811
playerName	Ryan O'Hearn
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	PIT
teamID	22

Jared Triolo (669707) · BATTER · 3B · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 6

All-history rows before 20260505: 6

System season_avg: 0.2170

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2174

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	0.833	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.833	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.833	3.000	-0.833	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.214	0.667	0.667	Hitting_AVG	0.217	0.667	0.449	0.000
predicted_BB	0.333	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.620	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.833	2.000	1.167	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.312	0.750	0.750	Hitting_OBP	0.308	0.667	0.442	0.083
predicted_R	0.333	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.333	1.000	0.667	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.140	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.167	1.000	0.833	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.238	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.261	0.667	0.739	0.333
predicted_SO	0.833	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.833	1.000	0.167	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.833	-
predicted_AVG	0.214	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.620	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.312	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.140	-
predicted_SLG	0.238	-
predicted_SO	0.833	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.118	-0.049
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.823	-0.010
predicted_AVG	0.214	0.000
predicted_BB	0.352	0.019
predicted_H	0.749	0.129
predicted_HBP	0.182	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.312	0.000
predicted_R	0.294	-0.039
predicted_RBI	0.167	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.238	0.000
predicted_SO	0.823	-0.010

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.195 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 3.833

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	0.2105	0.3182	0.2105	0.2105	0.0526	0.1053	0.2105
last_10	0.35	6	-	23.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	0.2174	0.3077	0.2609	0.2174	0.0435	0.0870	0.2174
season	0.20	6	-	23.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	5.000	0.2174	0.3077	0.2609	0.2174	0.0435	0.0870	0.2174

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0910
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8180
predicted_AVG	0.2143
predicted_BB	0.3630
predicted_H	0.8180
predicted_HBP	0.1820
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.3124
predicted_R	0.2730
predicted_RBI	0.1820
predicted_SLG	0.2382
predicted_SO	0.8180

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.0910	0.1176	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8330	3.8180	3.8232	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2140	0.2143	0.2142	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.3630	0.3525	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6200	0.8180	0.7487	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1820	0.1820	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3120	0.3124	0.3123	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.2730	0.2940	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1400	0.1820	0.1673	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2380	0.2382	0.2381	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8330	0.8180	0.8232	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.217

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260403_BAL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	669707
playerID	669707
playerName	Jared Triolo
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	PIT
teamID	22

Oneil Cruz (665833) · BATTER · CF · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 32

All-history rows before 20260505: 32

System season_avg: 0.2660

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2662

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.188	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.344	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	4.344	4.000	0.656	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.245	0.400	0.400	Hitting_AVG	0.266	0.500	0.134	-0.100
predicted_BB	0.344	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.344	0.000	-0.344	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_H	0.970	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.156	2.000	0.844	0.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.281	0.000	-0.281	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.295	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.325	0.500	0.075	-0.100
predicted_R	0.781	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.781	0.000	0.219	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.660	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.875	1.000	-0.875	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.344	1.000	-0.344	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.387	0.400	0.400	Hitting_SLG	0.504	0.500	-0.104	-0.100
predicted_SO	1.625	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.625	0.000	0.375	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.188	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.344	-
predicted_AVG	0.245	-
predicted_BB	0.344	-
predicted_H	0.970	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.295	-
predicted_R	0.781	-
predicted_RBI	0.660	-
predicted_SLG	0.387	-
predicted_SO	1.625	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.172	-0.016
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.500	0.156
predicted_AVG	0.245	0.000
predicted_BB	0.328	-0.016
predicted_H	1.069	0.099
predicted_HBP	0.007	-
predicted_HR	0.154	0.014
predicted_OBP	0.295	-0.000
predicted_R	0.791	0.010
predicted_RBI	0.726	0.066
predicted_SLG	0.387	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.702	0.077

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.238 HR/AB=0.034

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	2.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 4.344

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	23.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	2.000	8.000	0.2609	0.3200	0.3043	0.2609	0.0000	0.1304	0.0870	0.3478
last_10	0.35	10	-	47.000	10.000	1.000	3.000	9.000	8.000	2.000	20.000	0.2128	0.2449	0.4255	0.2128	0.0638	0.1915	0.0425	0.4255
season	0.20	32	-	139.000	37.000	6.000	9.000	28.000	25.000	11.000	52.000	0.2662	0.3245	0.5036	0.2662	0.0648	0.2014	0.0791	0.3741

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1630
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.5840
predicted_AVG	0.2451
predicted_BB	0.3200
predicted_H	1.1230
predicted_HBP	0.0070
predicted_HR	0.1620
predicted_OBP	0.2946
predicted_R	0.7970
predicted_RBI	0.7610
predicted_SLG	0.3866
predicted_SO	1.7430

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1880	0.1630	0.1718	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.3440	4.5840	4.5000	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2450	0.2451	0.2451	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3440	0.3200	0.3284	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9700	1.1230	1.0695	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0070	0.0070	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1620	0.1543	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2950	0.2946	0.2947	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7810	0.7970	0.7914	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6600	0.7610	0.7257	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3870	0.3866	0.3867	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.6250	1.7430	1.7017	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.266

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260503_CIN@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	665833
playerID	665833
playerName	Oneil Cruz
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	PIT
teamID	22

Jake Mangum (663968) · BATTER · LF · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 15

All-history rows before 20260505: 15

System season_avg: 0.2790

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2787

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.133	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.067	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.067	3.000	-0.067	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.263	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.279	0.333	-0.279	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.860	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.133	1.000	-1.133	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.315	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.500	-0.333	-0.500
predicted_R	0.600	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.600	1.000	-0.600	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.267	0.000	-0.267	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.279	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.311	0.333	-0.311	-0.333
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.133	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.067	-
predicted_AVG	0.263	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.860	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.315	-
predicted_R	0.600	-
predicted_RBI	0.120	-
predicted_SLG	0.279	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.085	-0.048
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.892	-0.175
predicted_AVG	0.263	0.000
predicted_BB	0.308	-0.025
predicted_H	0.952	0.092
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.315	0.000
predicted_R	0.478	-0.122
predicted_RBI	0.134	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.279	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.187	0.187

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.07), rates preserved: AVG=0.234 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 4.067

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	0.2222	0.2632	0.2222	0.2222	0.0556	0.0556	0.4444
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	12.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	4.000	10.000	0.3077	0.3721	0.3333	0.3077	0.0256	0.1026	0.2564
season	0.20	15	-	61.000	17.000	2.000	1.000	9.000	5.000	15.000	0.2787	0.3333	0.3115	0.2787	0.0164	0.0820	0.2459

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0590
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7980
predicted_AVG	0.2634
predicted_BB	0.2940
predicted_H	1.0010
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.3153
predicted_R	0.4120
predicted_RBI	0.1420
predicted_SLG	0.2789
predicted_SO	1.2870

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1330	0.0590	0.0849	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0670	3.7980	3.8921	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2630	0.2634	0.2633	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.2940	0.3076	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8600	1.0010	0.9516	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3150	0.3153	0.3152	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6000	0.4120	0.4778	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1200	0.1420	0.1343	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2790	0.2789	0.2789	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.2870	1.1865	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.279

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260430_STL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	663968
playerID	663968
playerName	Jake Mangum
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	PIT
teamID	22

Konnor Griffin (804606) · BATTER · SS · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 27

All-history rows before 20260505: 27

System season_avg: 0.2650

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2647

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.148	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.148	1.000	-0.148	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.074	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.074	0.000	-0.074	0.000
predicted_AB	3.778	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.778	3.000	0.222	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.384	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.265	0.333	-0.265	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.296	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.296	0.000	0.704	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.074	0.000	-0.074	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.453	0.200	0.200	Hitting_OBP	0.330	0.333	-0.130	-0.133
predicted_R	0.481	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.481	1.000	-0.481	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.550	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.556	0.000	-0.556	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.259	0.000	-0.259	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.601	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.402	0.667	-0.402	-0.667
predicted_SO	1.111	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.111	1.000	-0.111	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.148	-
predicted_3B	0.074	-
predicted_AB	3.778	-
predicted_AVG	0.384	-
predicted_BB	0.296	-
predicted_H	1.200	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.453	-
predicted_R	0.481	-
predicted_RBI	0.550	-
predicted_SLG	0.601	-
predicted_SO	1.111	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.233	0.085
predicted_3B	0.116	0.042
predicted_AB	3.767	-0.011
predicted_AVG	0.384	0.000
predicted_BB	0.408	0.112
predicted_H	1.359	0.159
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.080	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.453	0.000
predicted_R	0.601	0.120
predicted_RBI	0.623	0.073
predicted_SLG	0.601	0.000
predicted_SO	0.973	-0.138

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.78), rates preserved: AVG=0.360 HR/AB=0.021

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	4.000	0.4211	0.5000	0.6316	0.4210	0.0000	0.1579	0.1579	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	15.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	6.000	4.000	9.000	0.4054	0.4634	0.6757	0.4054	0.0541	0.2162	0.1081	0.2432
season	0.20	27	-	102.000	27.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	15.000	13.000	8.000	30.000	0.2647	0.3304	0.4020	0.2647	0.0196	0.1471	0.0784	0.2941

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2790
predicted_3B	0.1390
predicted_AB	3.7610
predicted_AVG	0.3843
predicted_BB	0.4680
predicted_H	1.4450
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.0860
predicted_OBP	0.4533
predicted_R	0.6660
predicted_RBI	0.6620
predicted_SLG	0.6011
predicted_SO	0.8980

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1480	0.2790	0.2331	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0740	0.1390	0.1163	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7780	3.7610	3.7670	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3840	0.3843	0.3842	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2960	0.4680	0.4078	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2000	1.4450	1.3593	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0860	0.0804	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4530	0.4533	0.4532	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4810	0.6660	0.6013	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5500	0.6620	0.6228	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6010	0.6011	0.6011	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1110	0.8980	0.9726	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.265

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260503_CIN@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	804606
playerID	804606
playerName	Konnor Griffin
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	PIT
teamID	22

Bubba Chandler (696149) · PITCHER · Starter · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 6

All-history rows before 20260505: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.667	3.000	-1.667	-2.000
predicted_IP	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.717	5.000	-0.717	-1.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	4.500	6.000	-2.500	-4.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	24.667	16.000	23.000	14.000	21.000	5.000	5.8378	1.5000	0.6486	0.9324	0.5676	0.8514	0.2027
last_10	0.35	6	29.000	16.000	23.000	20.000	27.000	5.000	4.9655	1.4828	0.5517	0.7931	0.6897	0.9310	0.1724
season	0.20	6	29.000	16.000	23.000	20.000	27.000	5.000	4.9655	1.4828	0.5517	0.7931	0.6897	0.9310	0.1724

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	3.0960
predicted_ER	2.9040
predicted_ERA	5.3580
predicted_H	4.1750
predicted_HR	0.9080
predicted_IP	4.8780
predicted_SO	4.3670
predicted_WHIP	1.4905

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	3.0960	2.7124	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	2.9040	2.2376	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.3580	5.3580	form_only
predicted_H	6.0000	4.1750	4.8137	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.9080	0.5902	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.0000	4.8780	4.5707	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	4.3670	3.5385	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4905	1.4905	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.0
H	6
R	1
ER	1
BB	2
SO	2
HR	0
BF	20
Pitches	80

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	4
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	22
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	4.97
Pitching_Flyouts	4
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.0
Pitching_Pitches	85
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	6
Pitching_Strikes	53
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260429_STL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	696149
playerID	696149
playerName	Bubba Chandler
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

Dennis Santana (642701) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 15

All-history rows before 20260505: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.333	0.000	-0.333
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.947	1.000	0.053
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.667	0.000	-0.667

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.667	4.000	6.000	4.000	4.000	2.000	7.7143	2.1429	0.8571	1.2857	0.8571	0.8571	0.4286
last_10	0.35	10	9.667	5.000	8.000	6.000	7.000	2.000	4.6552	1.4483	0.5172	0.8276	0.6207	0.7241	0.2069
season	0.20	15	14.667	5.000	9.000	8.000	10.000	2.000	3.0682	1.1591	0.3409	0.6136	0.5454	0.6818	0.1364

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6790
predicted_ER	0.6060
predicted_ERA	5.7144
predicted_H	0.9450
predicted_HR	0.2790
predicted_IP	0.9540
predicted_SO	0.7400
predicted_WHIP	1.7030

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6790	0.4414	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.6060	0.3939	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.7144	5.7144	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.9450	0.9642	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2790	0.1814	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9540	0.9701	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.7400	0.4810	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.7030	1.7030	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.07
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	9
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260429_STL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	642701
playerID	642701
playerName	Dennis Santana
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

Gregory Soto (642397) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 17

All-history rows before 20260505: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.959	1.100	0.041	-0.100
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.353	2.000	1.647	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.333	2.000	4.000	0.000	7.000	0.000	3.3750	0.7500	0.3750	0.7500	0.0000	1.3125	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.667	2.000	4.000	3.000	10.000	0.000	1.8621	0.7241	0.2069	0.4138	0.3103	1.0345	0.0000
season	0.20	17	17.000	3.000	6.000	6.000	23.000	1.000	1.5882	0.7059	0.1765	0.3529	0.3529	1.3529	0.0588

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1820
predicted_ER	0.2820
predicted_ERA	2.4881
predicted_H	0.5630
predicted_HR	0.0120
predicted_IP	1.0180
predicted_SO	1.2460
predicted_WHIP	0.7321

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1820	0.1183	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2820	0.1833	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.4881	2.4881	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.5630	0.3659	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0120	0.0078	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0180	1.0117	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	1.2460	1.8599	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.7321	0.7321	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	3
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.59
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_CIN@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	642397
playerID	642397
playerName	Gregory Soto
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

Isaac Mattson (676755) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 17

All-history rows before 20260505: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.412	5.000	0.588	-4.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.871	0.200	0.129	0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.706	0.000	-0.706	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	5.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	11.2500	1.5000	1.2500	0.7500	0.7500	0.7500
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	5.000	7.000	5.000	5.000	4.5000	1.2000	0.5000	0.7000	0.5000	0.5000
season	0.20	17	16.667	7.000	15.000	9.000	12.000	3.7800	1.4400	0.4200	0.9000	0.5400	0.7200

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5620
predicted_ER	0.7440
predicted_ERA	7.3935
predicted_H	0.6910
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	0.9060
predicted_SO	0.5950
predicted_WHIP	1.3830

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5620	0.3653	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.7440	0.8336	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	7.3935	7.3935	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.6910	0.7992	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0000	0.3500	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9060	0.9389	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.5950	0.3867	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3830	1.3830	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	1
BF	4
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	5
Pitching_ERA	3.78
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	31
Pitching_R	5
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	17
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260430_STL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	676755
playerID	676755
playerName	Isaac Mattson
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

Mason Montgomery (682254) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 14

All-history rows before 20260505: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.357	0.000	-0.357
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.836	1.000	0.164
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.571	0.000	-1.571

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	0.6000	0.0000	0.2000	0.4000	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.667	1.000	7.000	3.000	15.000	0.000	0.9310	1.0345	0.1035	0.7241	0.3103	1.5517	0.0000
season	0.20	14	13.333	5.000	11.000	7.000	22.000	1.000	3.3750	1.3500	0.3750	0.8250	0.5250	1.6500	0.0750

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3850
predicted_ER	0.1090
predicted_ERA	1.0009
predicted_H	0.4980
predicted_HR	0.0150
predicted_IP	0.9790
predicted_SO	1.2950
predicted_WHIP	0.9021

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3850	0.2503	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1090	0.0708	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.0009	1.0009	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.4980	0.3237	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0150	0.0097	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9790	0.9863	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.2950	0.8417	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9021	0.9021	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.38
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260430_STL@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	682254
playerID	682254
playerName	Mason Montgomery
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

Yohan Ramírez (670990) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team PIT

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 15

All-history rows before 20260505: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.320	2.000	-0.320	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.600	2.000	-1.600	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	1.000	5.000	1.000	8.000	0.000	1.5000	1.0000	0.1667	0.8333	0.1667	1.3333	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	15.000	3.000	10.000	7.000	17.000	1.000	1.8000	1.1333	0.2000	0.6667	0.4667	1.1333	0.0667
season	0.20	15	21.667	5.000	15.000	10.000	24.000	1.000	2.0769	1.1538	0.2308	0.6923	0.4615	1.1077	0.0461

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4480
predicted_ER	0.2590
predicted_ERA	1.7204
predicted_H	1.0110
predicted_HR	0.0440
predicted_IP	1.3540
predicted_SO	1.6490
predicted_WHIP	1.0774

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4480	0.6412	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2590	0.1683	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.7204	1.7204	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0110	0.6572	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0440	0.0286	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.3540	1.2301	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.6490	1.0718	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0774	1.0774	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.08
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260502_CIN@PIT
game_type	full
mlbID	670990
playerID	670990
playerName	Yohan Ramírez
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	PIT
teamID	22

Home Team: ARI

Ketel Marte (606466) · BATTER · 2B · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 30

All-history rows before 20260505: 30

System season_avg: 0.2160

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2160

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.167	5.000	5.000	Hitting_AB	4.167	5.000	0.833	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.163	0.400	0.400	Hitting_AVG	0.216	0.000	0.184	0.400
predicted_BB	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.610	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.900	0.000	1.100	2.000
predicted_HR	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.211	0.400	0.400	Hitting_OBP	0.269	0.000	0.131	0.400
predicted_R	0.567	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.567	0.000	-0.567	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.367	0.000	-0.367	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.293	0.400	0.400	Hitting_SLG	0.360	0.000	0.040	0.400
predicted_SO	0.933	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.933	3.000	-0.933	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.100	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.167	-
predicted_AVG	0.163	-
predicted_BB	0.300	-
predicted_H	0.610	-
predicted_HR	0.150	-
predicted_OBP	0.211	-
predicted_R	0.567	-
predicted_RBI	0.210	-
predicted_SLG	0.293	-
predicted_SO	0.933	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.070	-0.030
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.125	-0.042
predicted_AVG	0.163	0.000
predicted_BB	0.270	-0.030
predicted_H	0.649	0.039
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.156	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.211	0.000
predicted_R	0.398	-0.169
predicted_RBI	0.225	0.015
predicted_SLG	0.293	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.171	0.238

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.17), rates preserved: AVG=0.156 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	5.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 4.167

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	8.000	0.1000	0.1429	0.2500	0.1000	0.0500	0.0500	0.0500	0.4000
last_10	0.35	10	-	42.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	11.000	0.2143	0.2667	0.3095	0.2143	0.0238	0.0476	0.0714	0.2619
season	0.20	30	-	125.000	27.000	3.000	5.000	11.000	17.000	9.000	28.000	0.2160	0.2687	0.3600	0.2160	0.0400	0.0880	0.0720	0.2240

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0540
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.1030
predicted_AVG	0.1632
predicted_BB	0.2540
predicted_H	0.6700
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1590
predicted_OBP	0.2114
predicted_R	0.3070
predicted_RBI	0.2330
predicted_SLG	0.2928
predicted_SO	1.2990

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1000	0.0540	0.0701	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.1670	4.1030	4.1254	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1630	0.1632	0.1631	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3000	0.2540	0.2701	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6100	0.6700	0.6490	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1500	0.1590	0.1559	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2110	0.2114	0.2113	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5670	0.3070	0.3980	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2100	0.2330	0.2249	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2930	0.2928	0.2929	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9330	1.2990	1.1709	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	5
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.216

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260503_ARI@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	606466
playerID	606466
playerName	Ketel Marte
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	ARI
teamID	1

Corbin Carroll (682998) · BATTER · RF · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 31

All-history rows before 20260505: 31

System season_avg: 0.2730

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2727

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.226	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.226	0.000	-0.226	0.000
predicted_3B	0.129	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.129	0.000	-0.129	0.000
predicted_AB	3.548	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.548	3.000	0.452	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.252	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.273	0.000	-0.023	0.250
predicted_BB	0.548	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.548	1.000	-0.548	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.820	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.968	0.000	0.032	1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.129	0.000	0.871	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.320	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.372	0.250	-0.122	0.000
predicted_R	0.645	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.645	0.000	0.355	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.240	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.581	0.000	0.419	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.129	0.000	-0.129	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.448	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.518	0.000	0.482	1.000
predicted_SO	1.161	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.161	1.000	-0.161	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.226	-
predicted_3B	0.129	-
predicted_AB	3.548	-
predicted_AVG	0.252	-
predicted_BB	0.548	-
predicted_H	0.820	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.320	-
predicted_R	0.645	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.448	-
predicted_SO	1.161	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.190	-0.036
predicted_3B	0.087	-0.042
predicted_AB	3.715	0.167
predicted_AVG	0.252	0.000
predicted_BB	0.417	-0.131
predicted_H	0.910	0.090
predicted_HBP	0.043	-
predicted_HR	0.142	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.320	-0.000
predicted_R	0.544	-0.101
predicted_RBI	0.267	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.448	0.000
predicted_SO	1.238	0.077

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.72), rates preserved: AVG=0.245 HR/AB=0.038

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	5.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	0.2500	0.2857	0.4500	0.2500	0.0500	0.0500	0.0500	0.3500
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	9.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	12.000	0.2432	0.3333	0.4054	0.2432	0.0270	0.0541	0.1081	0.3243
season	0.20	31	-	110.000	30.000	7.000	4.000	4.000	18.000	20.000	17.000	36.000	0.2727	0.3721	0.5182	0.2727	0.0364	0.1636	0.1545	0.3273

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1700
predicted_3B	0.0640
predicted_AB	3.8050
predicted_AVG	0.2522
predicted_BB	0.3470
predicted_H	0.9590
predicted_HBP	0.0430
predicted_HR	0.1490
predicted_OBP	0.3196
predicted_R	0.4900
predicted_RBI	0.2820
predicted_SLG	0.4480
predicted_SO	1.2800

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2260	0.1700	0.1896	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.1290	0.0640	0.0867	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5480	3.8050	3.7151	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2520	0.2522	0.2521	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5480	0.3470	0.4173	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8200	0.9590	0.9103	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0430	0.0430	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1490	0.1424	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3200	0.3196	0.3197	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6450	0.4900	0.5443	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2400	0.2820	0.2673	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4480	0.4480	0.4480	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1610	1.2800	1.2384	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.273

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260503_ARI@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	682998
playerID	682998
playerName	Corbin Carroll
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	ARI
teamID	1

Gabriel Moreno (672515) · BATTER · C · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 12

All-history rows before 20260505: 12

System season_avg: 0.2220

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2222

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.750	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.750	4.000	-0.750	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.239	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.222	0.250	0.111	0.083
predicted_BB	0.250	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.700	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.833	1.000	0.167	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	1.000	-0.083	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.299	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.280	0.250	0.220	0.250
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.410	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.417	2.000	-0.417	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.417	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.356	1.000	-0.022	-0.667
predicted_SO	0.917	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.917	1.000	0.083	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.750	-
predicted_AVG	0.239	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.700	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.299	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.410	-
predicted_SLG	0.417	-
predicted_SO	0.917	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.247	-0.003
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.753	0.003
predicted_AVG	0.239	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.247	-0.003
predicted_H	0.827	0.127
predicted_HBP	0.141	-
predicted_HR	0.130	0.020
predicted_OBP	0.299	0.000
predicted_R	0.529	0.029
predicted_RBI	0.487	0.077
predicted_SLG	0.417	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.076	0.159

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.75), rates preserved: AVG=0.220 HR/AB=0.035

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	7.000	0.2632	0.3182	0.4737	0.2632	0.0526	0.1579	0.0526	0.3684
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	8.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	5.000	3.000	10.000	0.2162	0.2857	0.3784	0.2162	0.0270	0.1351	0.0811	0.2703
season	0.20	12	-	45.000	10.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	6.000	3.000	11.000	0.2222	0.2800	0.3556	0.2222	0.0222	0.1111	0.0667	0.2444

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2460
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7550
predicted_AVG	0.2386
predicted_BB	0.2460
predicted_H	0.8960
predicted_HBP	0.1410
predicted_HR	0.1410
predicted_OBP	0.2992
predicted_R	0.5450
predicted_RBI	0.5280
predicted_SLG	0.4167
predicted_SO	1.1610

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.2460	0.2474	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7500	3.7550	3.7532	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2390	0.2386	0.2387	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.2460	0.2474	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7000	0.8960	0.8274	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1410	0.1410	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1410	0.1301	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2990	0.2992	0.2991	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.5450	0.5292	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4100	0.5280	0.4867	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4170	0.4167	0.4168	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9170	1.1610	1.0756	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.222

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260503_ARI@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	672515
playerID	672515
playerName	Gabriel Moreno
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	ARI
teamID	1

Nolan Arenado (571448) · BATTER · 3B · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 31

All-history rows before 20260505: 31

System season_avg: 0.2750

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2752

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.097	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.097	1.000	-0.097	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.516	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.516	4.000	0.484	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.299	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.275	0.250	-0.275	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.194	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.850	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.968	1.000	-0.968	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.161	0.000	-0.161	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.348	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.310	0.250	-0.310	-0.250
predicted_R	0.516	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.516	1.000	-0.516	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.490	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.548	0.000	-0.548	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.512	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.440	0.500	-0.440	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.774	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.774	1.000	0.226	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.097	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.516	-
predicted_AVG	0.299	-
predicted_BB	0.194	-
predicted_H	0.850	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.348	-
predicted_R	0.516	-
predicted_RBI	0.490	-
predicted_SLG	0.512	-
predicted_SO	0.774	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.128	0.030
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.433	-0.083
predicted_AVG	0.299	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.244	0.050
predicted_H	0.955	0.105
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.181	0.021
predicted_OBP	0.348	-0.000
predicted_R	0.548	0.032
predicted_RBI	0.555	0.065
predicted_SLG	0.512	0.000
predicted_SO	0.823	0.049

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.52), rates preserved: AVG=0.272 HR/AB=0.052

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	0.2353	0.2778	0.4706	0.2353	0.0588	0.1765	0.0588	0.2941
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	13.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	8.000	4.000	7.000	0.3939	0.4595	0.6061	0.3939	0.0606	0.1818	0.1212	0.2121
season	0.20	31	-	109.000	30.000	3.000	5.000	17.000	16.000	6.000	24.000	0.2752	0.3103	0.4404	0.2752	0.0459	0.1560	0.0551	0.2202

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1440
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.3880
predicted_AVG	0.2988
predicted_BB	0.2710
predicted_H	1.0120
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1930
predicted_OBP	0.3479
predicted_R	0.5660
predicted_RBI	0.5900
predicted_SLG	0.5120
predicted_SO	0.8490

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0970	0.1440	0.1275	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5160	3.3880	3.4328	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2990	0.2988	0.2989	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1940	0.2710	0.2441	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8500	1.0120	0.9553	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1930	0.1815	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3480	0.3479	0.3479	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5160	0.5660	0.5485	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4900	0.5900	0.5550	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5120	0.5120	0.5120	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7740	0.8490	0.8227	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.275

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260503_ARI@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	571448
playerID	571448
playerName	Nolan Arenado
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	ARI
teamID	1

Adrian Del Castillo (680728) · BATTER · DH · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 14

All-history rows before 20260505: 14

System season_avg: 0.1960

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1964

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.214	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	4.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.139	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.196	0.000	-0.196	0.000
predicted_BB	0.214	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.786	0.000	-0.786	0.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.206	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.237	0.000	-0.237	0.000
predicted_R	0.429	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.490	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.714	0.000	-0.714	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.336	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.357	0.000	-0.357	0.000
predicted_SO	1.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.286	3.000	-1.286	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.214	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.139	-
predicted_BB	0.214	-
predicted_H	0.500	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.206	-
predicted_R	0.429	-
predicted_RBI	0.490	-
predicted_SLG	0.336	-
predicted_SO	1.286	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.207	-0.007
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.942	-0.058
predicted_AVG	0.139	0.000
predicted_BB	0.289	0.075
predicted_H	0.529	0.029
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.182	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.206	0.000
predicted_R	0.436	0.007
predicted_RBI	0.516	0.026
predicted_SLG	0.336	0.000
predicted_SO	1.422	0.136

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.132 HR/AB=0.046

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	9.000	0.1053	0.1905	0.3158	0.1053	0.0526	0.1053	0.1053	0.4737
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	6.000	2.000	2.000	6.000	5.000	3.000	12.000	0.1500	0.2093	0.3500	0.1500	0.0500	0.1500	0.0750	0.3000
season	0.20	14	-	56.000	11.000	3.000	2.000	10.000	6.000	3.000	18.000	0.1964	0.2373	0.3571	0.1964	0.0357	0.1786	0.0536	0.3214

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2030
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9100
predicted_AVG	0.1392
predicted_BB	0.3300
predicted_H	0.5440
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1890
predicted_OBP	0.2064
predicted_R	0.4400
predicted_RBI	0.5300
predicted_SLG	0.3360
predicted_SO	1.4950

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2140	0.2030	0.2069	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	3.9100	3.9415	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1390	0.1392	0.1391	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2140	0.3300	0.2894	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5000	0.5440	0.5286	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1890	0.1824	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2060	0.2064	0.2063	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4290	0.4400	0.4362	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4900	0.5300	0.5160	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3360	0.3360	0.3360	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2860	1.4950	1.4219	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.196

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH-C
gameID	20260430_ARI@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	680728
playerID	680728
playerName	Adrian Del Castillo
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	ARI
teamID	1

Geraldo Perdomo (672695) · BATTER · SS · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 30

All-history rows before 20260505: 30

System season_avg: 0.2450

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2451

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.133	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.133	1.000	-0.133	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.100	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_AB	3.400	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.400	4.000	0.600	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.266	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.245	0.250	0.255	0.250
predicted_BB	0.600	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.600	0.000	0.400	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.833	1.000	1.167	1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.389	0.600	0.600	Hitting_OBP	0.352	0.250	0.248	0.350
predicted_R	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.494	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.402	0.500	0.098	0.000
predicted_SO	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.133	-
predicted_3B	0.100	-
predicted_AB	3.400	-
predicted_AVG	0.266	-
predicted_BB	0.600	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.389	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.494	-
predicted_SO	0.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.145	0.012
predicted_3B	0.116	0.016
predicted_AB	3.504	0.104
predicted_AVG	0.266	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.681	0.081
predicted_H	0.909	0.069
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.132	0.012
predicted_OBP	0.389	-0.000
predicted_R	0.320	-0.080
predicted_RBI	0.481	0.041
predicted_SLG	0.494	0.000
predicted_SO	0.516	0.016

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.259 HR/AB=0.038

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	5.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	0.2222	0.3636	0.4444	0.2222	0.0556	0.1667	0.2222	0.1111
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	12.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	7.000	7.000	0.3333	0.4419	0.6111	0.3333	0.0278	0.1389	0.1944	0.1944
season	0.20	30	-	102.000	25.000	4.000	3.000	2.000	9.000	12.000	18.000	15.000	0.2451	0.3525	0.4020	0.2451	0.0196	0.0882	0.1765	0.1471

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1520
predicted_3B	0.1250
predicted_AB	3.5600
predicted_AVG	0.2657
predicted_BB	0.7240
predicted_H	0.9460
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1380
predicted_OBP	0.3888
predicted_R	0.2770
predicted_RBI	0.5030
predicted_SLG	0.4943
predicted_SO	0.5250

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1330	0.1520	0.1454	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.1000	0.1250	0.1162	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4000	3.5600	3.5040	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2660	0.2657	0.2658	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6000	0.7240	0.6806	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	0.9460	0.9089	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1380	0.1317	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3890	0.3888	0.3889	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.2770	0.3201	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.5030	0.4809	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4940	0.4943	0.4942	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5000	0.5250	0.5163	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	5
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.245

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260503_ARI@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	672695
playerID	672695
playerName	Geraldo Perdomo
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	ARI
teamID	1

Ildemaro Vargas (545121) · BATTER · 1B · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 24

All-history rows before 20260505: 24

System season_avg: 0.3670

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3673

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.208	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.208	0.000	-0.208	0.000
predicted_3B	0.042	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_AB	4.083	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.083	4.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.411	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.367	0.250	0.133	0.250
predicted_BB	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.470	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.500	1.000	0.500	1.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.436	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.386	0.250	0.114	0.250
predicted_R	0.792	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.792	0.000	-0.792	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.510	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.750	0.000	-0.750	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.565	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.622	0.250	-0.122	0.250
predicted_SO	0.417	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.417	0.000	-0.417	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.208	-
predicted_3B	0.042	-
predicted_AB	4.083	-
predicted_AVG	0.411	-
predicted_BB	0.125	-
predicted_H	1.470	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.436	-
predicted_R	0.792	-
predicted_RBI	0.510	-
predicted_SLG	0.565	-
predicted_SO	0.417	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.123	-0.084
predicted_3B	0.043	0.001
predicted_AB	4.121	0.038
predicted_AVG	0.411	0.000
predicted_BB	0.164	0.039
predicted_H	1.622	0.152
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.151	0.011
predicted_OBP	0.436	0.000
predicted_R	0.600	-0.192
predicted_RBI	0.565	0.055
predicted_SLG	0.565	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.327	-0.090

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.12), rates preserved: AVG=0.394 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	2.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 4.083

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	9.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.4286	0.4545	0.4286	0.4286	0.0000	0.0476	0.0476	0.0476
last_10	0.35	10	-	41.000	17.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	10.000	7.000	2.000	3.000	0.4146	0.4419	0.7073	0.4146	0.0732	0.2439	0.0488	0.0732
season	0.20	24	-	98.000	36.000	5.000	1.000	6.000	18.000	19.000	3.000	10.000	0.3673	0.3861	0.6224	0.3674	0.0612	0.1837	0.0306	0.1020

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0780
predicted_3B	0.0440
predicted_AB	4.1420
predicted_AVG	0.4114
predicted_BB	0.1850
predicted_H	1.7040
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1570
predicted_OBP	0.4364
predicted_R	0.4970
predicted_RBI	0.5940
predicted_SLG	0.5649
predicted_SO	0.2790

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2080	0.0780	0.1235	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0420	0.0440	0.0433	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0830	4.1420	4.1214	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.4110	0.4114	0.4113	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1250	0.1850	0.1640	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.4700	1.7040	1.6221	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1570	0.1511	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4360	0.4364	0.4363	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.7920	0.4970	0.6002	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5100	0.5940	0.5646	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5650	0.5649	0.5649	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4170	0.2790	0.3273	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.367

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260503_ARI@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	545121
playerID	545121
playerName	Ildemaro Vargas
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	ARI
teamID	1

Alek Thomas (677950) · BATTER · CF · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 25

All-history rows before 20260505: 25

System season_avg: 0.1840

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1839

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.320	0.000	-0.320	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.480	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.480	2.000	0.520	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.189	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.184	0.000	-0.184	0.000
predicted_BB	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.120	0.000	-0.120	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.490	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.640	0.000	-0.640	0.000
predicted_HR	0.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.080	0.000	-0.080	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.203	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.220	0.000	-0.220	0.000
predicted_R	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.160	0.000	-0.160	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.316	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.345	0.000	-0.345	0.000
predicted_SO	0.840	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.840	2.000	1.160	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.320	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.480	-
predicted_AVG	0.189	-
predicted_BB	0.120	-
predicted_H	0.490	-
predicted_HR	0.070	-
predicted_OBP	0.203	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.170	-
predicted_SLG	0.316	-
predicted_SO	0.840	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.219	-0.101
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.357	-0.123
predicted_AVG	0.189	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.080	-0.040
predicted_H	0.575	0.085
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.080	0.010
predicted_OBP	0.203	0.000
predicted_R	0.423	0.023
predicted_RBI	0.199	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.316	0.000
predicted_SO	0.895	0.055

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.48), rates preserved: AVG=0.165 HR/AB=0.023

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	6.000	0.1250	0.1250	0.1250	0.1250	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.3750
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	9.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	5.000	1.000	6.000	0.2727	0.2941	0.5455	0.2727	0.0606	0.1212	0.0303	0.1818
season	0.20	25	-	87.000	16.000	8.000	2.000	10.000	10.000	3.000	21.000	0.1839	0.2198	0.3448	0.1839	0.0230	0.1149	0.0345	0.2414

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1650
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.2910
predicted_AVG	0.1885
predicted_BB	0.0580
predicted_H	0.6200
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.0850
predicted_OBP	0.2031
predicted_R	0.4350
predicted_RBI	0.2150
predicted_SLG	0.3161
predicted_SO	0.9240

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3200	0.1650	0.2193	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4800	3.2910	3.3571	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1890	0.1885	0.1887	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1200	0.0580	0.0797	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4900	0.6200	0.5745	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0700	0.0850	0.0798	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2030	0.2031	0.2031	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.4350	0.4227	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1700	0.2150	0.1993	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3160	0.3161	0.3161	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8400	0.9240	0.8946	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.184

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260501_ARI@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	677950
playerID	677950
playerName	Alek Thomas
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	ARI
teamID	1

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (666971) · BATTER · LF · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 11

All-history rows before 20260505: 11

System season_avg: 0.2330

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2326

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.909	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.909	3.000	-0.909	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.302	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.233	0.667	-0.233	-0.667
predicted_BB	0.273	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.273	1.000	0.727	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.980	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.909	2.000	-0.909	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.345	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.283	0.750	-0.033	-0.500
predicted_R	0.273	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.273	1.000	0.727	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.364	0.000	0.636	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.353	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.279	0.667	-0.279	-0.667
predicted_SO	0.727	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.727	1.000	-0.727	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.909	-
predicted_AVG	0.302	-
predicted_BB	0.273	-
predicted_H	0.980	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.345	-
predicted_R	0.273	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.353	-
predicted_SO	0.727	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.191	0.009
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.875	-0.034
predicted_AVG	0.302	0.000
predicted_BB	0.257	-0.016
predicted_H	1.100	0.120
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.345	-0.000
predicted_R	0.317	0.043
predicted_RBI	0.284	0.034
predicted_SLG	0.353	0.000
predicted_SO	0.862	0.135

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.91), rates preserved: AVG=0.281 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 11

Reference playing time: 3.909

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	7.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	6.000	0.3684	0.4000	0.4211	0.3684	0.0526	0.0526	0.3158
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	10.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	7.000	0.2564	0.3095	0.3077	0.2564	0.1026	0.0769	0.1795
season	0.20	11	-	43.000	10.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	3.000	8.000	0.2326	0.2826	0.2791	0.2326	0.0930	0.0698	0.1860

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1960
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8570
predicted_AVG	0.3020
predicted_BB	0.2490
predicted_H	1.1650
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.3448
predicted_R	0.3400
predicted_RBI	0.3020
predicted_SLG	0.3530
predicted_SO	0.9340

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.1960	0.1911	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9090	3.8570	3.8752	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3020	0.3020	0.3020	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2730	0.2490	0.2574	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9800	1.1650	1.1002	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3450	0.3448	0.3449	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2730	0.3400	0.3165	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.3020	0.2838	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3530	0.3530	0.3530	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7270	0.9340	0.8616	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	11
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.233

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260503_ARI@CHC
game_type	full
mlbID	666971
playerID	666971
playerName	Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	ARI
teamID	1

Eduardo Rodriguez (593958) · PITCHER · Starter · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 6

All-history rows before 20260505: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.833	2.000	-0.833	-1.000
predicted_IP	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.367	4.200	-1.367	-0.200
predicted_SO	8.000	8.000	-	Pitching_SO	3.667	4.000	4.333	4.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	27.667	11.000	26.000	14.000	17.000	4.000	3.5783	1.4458	0.3976	0.9398	0.5060	0.6145	0.1446
last_10	0.35	6	32.667	11.000	30.000	16.000	22.000	4.000	3.0306	1.4082	0.3367	0.9184	0.4898	0.6735	0.1225
season	0.20	6	32.667	11.000	30.000	16.000	22.000	4.000	3.0306	1.4082	0.3367	0.9184	0.4898	0.6735	0.1225

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.7260
predicted_ER	1.9970
predicted_ERA	3.2771
predicted_H	5.0900
predicted_HR	0.7260
predicted_IP	5.4840
predicted_SO	3.5480
predicted_WHIP	1.4251

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	3.0000	2.7260	2.8219	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.9970	1.6481	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.2771	3.2771	form_only
predicted_H	4.0000	5.0900	4.7085	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.7260	0.8219	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.0000	5.4840	4.9646	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	8.0000	3.5480	5.1062	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4251	1.4251	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.0
H	4
R	1
ER	1
BB	3
SO	8
HR	1
BF	19
Pitches	91

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	4
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	23
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	3.03
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	5
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.2
Pitching_Pitches	87
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	48
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260429_ARI@MIL
game_type	full
mlbID	593958
playerID	593958
playerName	Eduardo Rodriguez
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Jonathan Loáisiga (642528) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 2

All-history rows before 20260505: 2

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.050	1.000	-0.050
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	1.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total H	Total SO	WHIP	H_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	2.333	1.000	2.000	0.4286	0.4286	0.8571
last_10	0.35	2	2.333	1.000	2.000	0.4286	0.4286	0.8571
season	0.20	2	2.333	1.000	2.000	0.4286	0.4286	0.8571

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_ER	0.0000
predicted_ERA	0.0000
predicted_H	0.5000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.1670
predicted_SO	1.0000
predicted_WHIP	0.4286

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.5000	0.3250	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.1670	1.1086	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.4286	0.4286	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260328_ARI@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	642528
playerID	642528
playerName	Jonathan Loáisiga
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Juan Morillo (666661) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 2

All-history rows before 20260505: 2

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.600	0.200	0.400	0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 2

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	2	1.667	2.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	10.8000	2.4000	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	0.6000	0.6000
last_10	0.35	2	1.667	2.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	10.8000	2.4000	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	0.6000	0.6000
season	0.20	2	1.667	2.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	10.8000	2.4000	1.2000	1.2000	1.2000	0.6000	0.6000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.0000
predicted_ER	1.0000
predicted_ERA	10.8000
predicted_H	1.0000
predicted_HR	0.5000
predicted_IP	0.8330
predicted_SO	0.5000
predicted_WHIP	2.4000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	1.0000	0.6500	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	1.0000	1.3500	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	10.8000	10.8000	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	1.0000	1.7000	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.5000	0.3250	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.8330	0.8914	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.5000	0.6750	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	2.4000	2.4000	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	2
Season rows before report date	2
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	2
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	3
R	2
ER	2
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	26

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	10.80
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	22
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	12
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L, BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260328_ARI@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	666661
playerID	666661
playerName	Juan Morillo
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Kevin Ginkel (656464) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 1

All-history rows before 20260505: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.000	0.000	2.000	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP
last_5	0.45	1	1.000	1.000	2.000	9.0000	2.0000	1.0000	2.0000
last_10	0.35	1	1.000	1.000	2.000	9.0000	2.0000	1.0000	2.0000
season	0.20	1	1.000	1.000	2.000	9.0000	2.0000	1.0000	2.0000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_ER	1.0000
predicted_ERA	9.0000
predicted_H	2.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0000
predicted_SO	0.0000
predicted_WHIP	2.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	9.0000	9.0000	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	2.0000	2.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0000	1.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.0000	0.7000	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	2.0000	2.0000	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	9.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	21
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260327_ARI@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	656464
playerID	656464
playerName	Kevin Ginkel
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Paul Sewald (623149) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 1

All-history rows before 20260505: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.100	0.100	0.900	0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP
last_5	0.45	1	0.333
last_10	0.35	1	0.333
season	0.20	1	0.333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_ER	0.0000
predicted_ERA	0.0000
predicted_H	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	0.3330
predicted_SO	0.0000
predicted_WHIP	0.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.0000	0.3500	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	0.0000	1.0500	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.3330	0.5665	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	3
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	5
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260328_ARI@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	623149
playerID	623149
playerName	Paul Sewald
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

Taylor Clarke (664199) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team ARI

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 1

All-history rows before 20260505: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	4.000	4.000	-3.000	-3.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.100	0.100	0.900	0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	1	0.333	4.000	3.000	1.000	108.0000	9.0000	12.0000	9.0000	3.0000
last_10	0.35	1	0.333	4.000	3.000	1.000	108.0000	9.0000	12.0000	9.0000	3.0000
season	0.20	1	0.333	4.000	3.000	1.000	108.0000	9.0000	12.0000	9.0000	3.0000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_ER	4.0000
predicted_ERA	108.0000
predicted_H	3.0000
predicted_HR	1.0000
predicted_IP	0.3330
predicted_SO	0.0000
predicted_WHIP	9.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	4.0000	2.9500	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	108.0000	108.0000	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	3.0000	1.9500	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	1.0000	0.6500	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.3330	0.5665	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	9.0000	9.0000	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	4
Pitching_ERA	108.00
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	4
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260326_ARI@LAD
game_type	full
mlbID	664199
playerID	664199
playerName	Taylor Clarke
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	ARI
teamID	1

20260505_SD@SF

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "confidence": 0.5110000000000001, "home_win_probability": 0.5110000000000001, "away_win_probability": 0.4889999999999999, "predicted_score_text": "SD 3 - 5 SF", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "SD 3 - 4 SF", "confidence": 0.5110000000000001, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "SD 3 - 4 SF", "winner": "SF"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "SD 3 - 5 SF", "winner": "SF"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 1, "total_run_delta": 1, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Away Team: SD

Sung-Mun Song (823550) · BATTER · 2B · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 0

All-history rows before 20260505: 0

System season_avg: 0.0000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): -

Diff (system - data): -

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	-	-	-	-
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	-	-	-	-
predicted_AB	0.000	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	-	-	-	-
predicted_AVG	0.000	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	-	-	-	-
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	-	-	-	-
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	-	-	-	-
predicted_H	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	-	-	-	-
predicted_HR	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	-	-	-	-
predicted_OBP	0.000	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	-	-	-	-
predicted_R	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	-	-	-	-
predicted_RBI	0.000	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	-	-	-	-
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	-	-	-	-
predicted_SLG	0.000	1.333	1.333	Hitting_SLG	-	-	-	-
predicted_SO	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	-	-	-	-

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw XGBoost model output

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	0.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.000	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.000	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.000	-
predicted_SLG	0.000	-
predicted_SO	0.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.475	2.475
predicted_AVG	0.000	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.000	0.000
predicted_R	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.000	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.47), rates preserved: AVG=0.000 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	3.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 0

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Total PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
last_10	0.35	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
season	0.20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8070
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_H	0.0000
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_R	0.0000
predicted_RBI	0.0000
predicted_SO	0.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	0.0000	3.8070	2.4746	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.0000	-	0.0000	model_only
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.0000	-	0.0000	model_only
predicted_R	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.0000	-	0.0000	model_only
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	0
Season rows before report date	0
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	0
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

No historical data found for this player before report date.

Gavin Sheets (657757) · BATTER · 1B · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 24

All-history rows before 20260505: 24

System season_avg: 0.2000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.542	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.542	3.000	-0.542	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.149	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_BB	0.208	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.208	0.000	0.792	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.480	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.708	0.000	-0.708	0.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.083	0.000	-0.083	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.236	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.253	0.000	-0.003	0.250
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.042	0.000	-0.042	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.203	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.365	0.000	-0.365	0.000
predicted_SO	0.917	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.917	2.000	0.083	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.333	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.542	-
predicted_AVG	0.149	-
predicted_BB	0.208	-
predicted_H	0.480	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.236	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.310	-
predicted_SLG	0.203	-
predicted_SO	0.917	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.202	-0.131
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.387	-0.155
predicted_AVG	0.149	0.000
predicted_BB	0.227	0.019
predicted_H	0.488	0.008
predicted_HBP	0.136	-
predicted_HR	0.017	-0.003
predicted_OBP	0.236	-0.000
predicted_R	0.263	-0.070
predicted_RBI	0.315	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.203	0.000
predicted_SO	0.939	0.022

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.54), rates preserved: AVG=0.138 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=17.0, BvP AVG=0.412)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 24

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	0.1250	0.2222	0.1250	0.1250	0.0000	0.1250	0.0625	0.3125
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	3.000	9.000	0.1515	0.2432	0.2121	0.1515	0.0000	0.0606	0.0909	0.2727
season	0.20	24	-	85.000	17.000	8.000	2.000	8.000	8.000	5.000	22.000	0.2000	0.2527	0.3647	0.2000	0.0235	0.0941	0.0588	0.2588

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1320
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.3030
predicted_AVG	0.1493
predicted_BB	0.2370
predicted_H	0.4930
predicted_HBP	0.1360
predicted_HR	0.0160
predicted_OBP	0.2356
predicted_R	0.2250
predicted_RBI	0.3180
predicted_SLG	0.2034
predicted_SO	0.9510

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3330	0.1320	0.2024	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5420	3.3030	3.3866	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1490	0.1493	0.1492	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2080	0.2370	0.2268	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4800	0.4930	0.4884	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1360	0.1360	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0160	0.0174	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2360	0.2356	0.2357	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.2250	0.2628	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3100	0.3180	0.3152	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2030	0.2034	0.2033	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9170	0.9510	0.9391	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	24
Season rows before report date	24
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	24
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.2

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260504_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	657757
playerID	657757
playerName	Gavin Sheets
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	SD
teamID	23

Xander Bogaerts (593428) · BATTER · SS · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 33

All-history rows before 20260505: 33

System season_avg: 0.2620

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2623

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.061	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.697	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.697	3.000	-0.697	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.185	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.262	0.000	-0.262	0.000
predicted_BB	0.455	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.455	0.000	0.545	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.570	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.970	0.000	-0.970	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.152	0.000	-0.152	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.283	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.343	0.000	-0.093	0.250
predicted_R	0.455	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.455	0.000	-0.455	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.545	0.000	-0.545	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.121	0.000	-0.121	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.273	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.402	0.000	-0.402	0.000
predicted_SO	0.636	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.636	0.000	1.364	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.061	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.697	-
predicted_AVG	0.185	-
predicted_BB	0.455	-
predicted_H	0.570	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.283	-
predicted_R	0.455	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.273	-
predicted_SO	0.636	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.029	-0.033
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.565	-0.132
predicted_AVG	0.185	0.000
predicted_BB	0.472	0.017
predicted_H	0.621	0.051
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.096	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.283	-0.000
predicted_R	0.480	0.025
predicted_RBI	0.319	0.029
predicted_SLG	0.273	0.000
predicted_SO	0.851	0.215

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.70), rates preserved: AVG=0.168 HR/AB=0.026

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=30.0, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	0.1176	0.2105	0.1176	0.1177	0.0000	0.0588	0.1177	0.2941
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	8.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	9.000	6.000	11.000	0.2286	0.3415	0.4000	0.2286	0.0571	0.1143	0.1714	0.3143
season	0.20	33	-	122.000	32.000	2.000	5.000	18.000	15.000	15.000	21.000	0.2623	0.3431	0.4016	0.2623	0.0410	0.1475	0.1230	0.1721

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0110
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4940
predicted_AVG	0.1854
predicted_BB	0.4810
predicted_H	0.6480
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0990
predicted_OBP	0.2829
predicted_R	0.4930
predicted_RBI	0.3350
predicted_SLG	0.2732
predicted_SO	0.9670

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0610	0.0110	0.0285	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6970	3.4940	3.5651	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1850	0.1854	0.1853	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4550	0.4810	0.4719	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5700	0.6480	0.6207	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.0990	0.0959	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2830	0.2829	0.2829	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4550	0.4930	0.4797	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.3350	0.3193	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2730	0.2732	0.2731	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6360	0.9670	0.8512	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.262

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260504_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	593428
playerID	593428
playerName	Xander Bogaerts
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	SD
teamID	23

Fernando Tatis Jr. (665487) · BATTER · RF · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 32

All-history rows before 20260505: 32

System season_avg: 0.2520

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2520

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.031	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_AB	3.844	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.844	4.000	0.156	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.229	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.252	0.000	-0.252	0.000
predicted_BB	0.438	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.438	0.000	-0.438	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_H	0.760	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.969	0.000	-0.969	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.273	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.326	0.000	-0.326	0.000
predicted_R	0.375	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.180	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.281	0.000	-0.281	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.306	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.301	0.000	-0.301	0.000
predicted_SO	1.125	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.125	3.000	-0.125	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.031	-
predicted_AB	3.844	-
predicted_AVG	0.229	-
predicted_BB	0.438	-
predicted_H	0.760	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.273	-
predicted_R	0.375	-
predicted_RBI	0.180	-
predicted_SLG	0.306	-
predicted_SO	1.125	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.060	-0.065
predicted_3B	0.098	0.067
predicted_AB	3.808	-0.036
predicted_AVG	0.229	0.000
predicted_BB	0.335	-0.103
predicted_H	0.830	0.070
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.273	0.000
predicted_R	0.305	-0.070
predicted_RBI	0.194	0.014
predicted_SLG	0.306	0.000
predicted_SO	1.187	0.062

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.84), rates preserved: AVG=0.216 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=36.0, BvP AVG=0.222)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.844

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	6.000	0.2222	0.2500	0.3333	0.2222	0.0556	0.0556	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	9.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	13.000	0.2250	0.2727	0.2750	0.2250	0.0250	0.0750	0.3250
season	0.20	32	-	123.000	31.000	4.000	1.000	12.000	12.000	14.000	36.000	0.2520	0.3262	0.3008	0.2520	0.0976	0.1138	0.2927

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0250
predicted_3B	0.1340
predicted_AB	3.7890
predicted_AVG	0.2291
predicted_BB	0.2800
predicted_H	0.8680
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.2732
predicted_R	0.2680
predicted_RBI	0.2020
predicted_SLG	0.3064
predicted_SO	1.2210

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.0250	0.0600	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0310	0.1340	0.0980	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8440	3.7890	3.8083	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2290	0.2291	0.2291	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4380	0.2800	0.3353	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7600	0.8680	0.8302	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2730	0.2732	0.2731	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3750	0.2680	0.3054	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1800	0.2020	0.1943	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3060	0.3064	0.3063	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1250	1.2210	1.1874	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.252

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260504_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	665487
playerID	665487
playerName	Fernando Tatis Jr.
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	SD
teamID	23

Luis Campusano (669134) · BATTER · C · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 15

All-history rows before 20260505: 15

System season_avg: 0.2890

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2889

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	4.000	1.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.321	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.289	0.000	-0.289	0.000
predicted_BB	0.267	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.267	0.000	-0.267	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.750	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.867	0.000	-0.867	0.000
predicted_HR	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.375	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.347	0.000	-0.347	0.000
predicted_R	0.467	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.467	0.000	-0.467	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.470	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.533	0.000	-0.533	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.759	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.622	0.000	-0.622	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	2.000	0.000	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.400	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.321	-
predicted_BB	0.267	-
predicted_H	0.750	-
predicted_HR	0.230	-
predicted_OBP	0.375	-
predicted_R	0.467	-
predicted_RBI	0.470	-
predicted_SLG	0.759	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.455	0.055
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.198	0.198
predicted_AVG	0.321	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.283	0.016
predicted_H	0.952	0.202
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.289	0.059
predicted_OBP	0.375	0.000
predicted_R	0.512	0.045
predicted_RBI	0.601	0.131
predicted_SLG	0.759	0.000
predicted_SO	1.034	0.034

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.20), rates preserved: AVG=0.298 HR/AB=0.090

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	6.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	0.3333	0.3684	0.8333	0.3333	0.1111	0.2222	0.0556	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	10.000	4.000	3.000	6.000	5.000	4.000	9.000	0.3226	0.4000	0.7419	0.3226	0.0968	0.1935	0.1290	0.2903
season	0.20	15	-	45.000	13.000	6.000	3.000	8.000	7.000	4.000	15.000	0.2889	0.3469	0.6222	0.2889	0.0667	0.1778	0.0889	0.3333

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4850
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.3050
predicted_AVG	0.3207
predicted_BB	0.2910
predicted_H	1.0600
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.3210
predicted_OBP	0.3752
predicted_R	0.5370
predicted_RBI	0.6720
predicted_SLG	0.7591
predicted_SO	1.0520

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.4000	0.4850	0.4552	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.3050	3.1982	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3210	0.3207	0.3208	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2670	0.2910	0.2826	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7500	1.0600	0.9515	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2300	0.3210	0.2892	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3750	0.3752	0.3751	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4670	0.5370	0.5125	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4700	0.6720	0.6013	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.7590	0.7591	0.7591	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0520	1.0338	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.289

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260502_CHW@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	669134
playerID	669134
playerName	Luis Campusano
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	SD
teamID	23

Miguel Andujar (609280) · BATTER · DH · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 22

All-history rows before 20260505: 22

System season_avg: 0.3120

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3125

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.273	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.273	0.000	0.727	1.000
predicted_3B	0.045	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_AB	3.636	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.636	3.000	-0.636	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.280	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.312	0.000	0.021	0.333
predicted_BB	0.136	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.136	0.000	0.864	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_H	0.930	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.136	0.000	-0.136	1.000
predicted_HR	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.293	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.345	0.000	0.155	0.500
predicted_R	0.364	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.364	0.000	0.636	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.540	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.409	0.000	-0.409	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.045	0.000	-0.045	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.538	0.667	0.667	Hitting_SLG	0.487	0.000	0.179	0.667
predicted_SO	0.682	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.682	1.000	0.318	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.273	-
predicted_3B	0.045	-
predicted_AB	3.636	-
predicted_AVG	0.280	-
predicted_BB	0.136	-
predicted_H	0.930	-
predicted_HR	0.240	-
predicted_OBP	0.293	-
predicted_R	0.364	-
predicted_RBI	0.540	-
predicted_SLG	0.538	-
predicted_SO	0.682	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.175	-0.098
predicted_3B	0.022	-0.023
predicted_AB	3.663	0.027
predicted_AVG	0.280	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.087	-0.049
predicted_H	0.994	0.064
predicted_HBP	0.009	-
predicted_HR	0.260	0.020
predicted_OBP	0.293	-0.000
predicted_R	0.361	-0.003
predicted_RBI	0.576	0.036
predicted_SLG	0.538	0.000
predicted_SO	0.580	-0.102

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.66), rates preserved: AVG=0.271 HR/AB=0.071

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	0.2778	0.2778	0.6111	0.2778	0.1111	0.1667	0.0000	0.1111
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	10.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	7.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	0.2632	0.2821	0.4737	0.2632	0.0526	0.1842	0.0263	0.1579
season	0.20	22	-	80.000	25.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	9.000	8.000	3.000	15.000	0.3125	0.3452	0.4875	0.3125	0.0250	0.1125	0.0375	0.1875

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1230
predicted_3B	0.0090
predicted_AB	3.6770
predicted_AVG	0.2796
predicted_BB	0.0610
predicted_H	1.0280
predicted_HBP	0.0090
predicted_HR	0.2700
predicted_OBP	0.2928
predicted_R	0.3590
predicted_RBI	0.5960
predicted_SLG	0.5383
predicted_SO	0.5250

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2730	0.1230	0.1755	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0450	0.0090	0.0216	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6360	3.6770	3.6627	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2800	0.2796	0.2797	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1360	0.0610	0.0872	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9300	1.0280	0.9937	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0090	0.0090	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2400	0.2700	0.2595	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2930	0.2928	0.2929	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3640	0.3590	0.3608	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5400	0.5960	0.5764	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5380	0.5383	0.5382	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6820	0.5250	0.5800	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	22
Season rows before report date	22
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.312

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260504_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	609280
playerID	609280
playerName	Miguel Andujar
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	SD
teamID	23

Jackson Merrill (701538) · BATTER · CF · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 32

All-history rows before 20260505: 32

System season_avg: 0.2200

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2205

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.188	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.969	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.969	4.000	0.031	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.245	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.220	0.500	0.030	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.312	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.312	0.000	-0.312	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.900	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.875	2.000	0.125	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.140	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.125	1.000	0.875	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.300	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.283	0.500	-0.033	-0.250
predicted_R	0.625	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.625	1.000	0.375	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.372	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.362	1.250	0.638	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.031	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.031	1.000	-0.031	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.188	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.969	-
predicted_AVG	0.245	-
predicted_BB	0.312	-
predicted_H	0.900	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.300	-
predicted_R	0.625	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.372	-
predicted_SO	1.031	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.089	-0.099
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.881	-0.088
predicted_AVG	0.245	0.000
predicted_BB	0.299	-0.013
predicted_H	0.927	0.027
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.146	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.300	-0.000
predicted_R	0.471	-0.154
predicted_RBI	0.288	0.008
predicted_SLG	0.372	0.000
predicted_SO	0.897	-0.134

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.97), rates preserved: AVG=0.233 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=15.0, BvP AVG=0.667)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.969

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.2632	0.3000	0.4211	0.2632	0.0526	0.0526	0.0526	0.1579
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	9.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	4.000	10.000	0.2368	0.3095	0.3158	0.2368	0.0263	0.0790	0.1053	0.2632
season	0.20	32	-	127.000	28.000	6.000	4.000	16.000	20.000	10.000	33.000	0.2205	0.2826	0.3622	0.2205	0.0315	0.1260	0.0787	0.2598

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0360
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8340
predicted_AVG	0.2454
predicted_BB	0.2920
predicted_H	0.9410
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1500
predicted_OBP	0.2998
predicted_R	0.3880
predicted_RBI	0.2930
predicted_SLG	0.3725
predicted_SO	0.8250

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1880	0.0360	0.0892	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.9690	3.8340	3.8813	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2450	0.2454	0.2453	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3120	0.2920	0.2990	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9000	0.9410	0.9266	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1500	0.1465	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3000	0.2998	0.2999	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6250	0.3880	0.4710	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.2930	0.2884	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3720	0.3725	0.3723	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0310	0.8250	0.8971	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.22

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260504_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	701538
playerID	701538
playerName	Jackson Merrill
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	SD
teamID	23

Nick Castellanos (592206) · BATTER · LF · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 16

All-history rows before 20260505: 16

System season_avg: 0.1790

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1786

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	2.000	-0.500	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.159	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.179	0.500	-0.179	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.250	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.250	0.000	0.750	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.450	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.625	1.000	-0.625	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.208	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.233	0.500	0.017	-0.250
predicted_R	0.188	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.520	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.562	0.000	-0.562	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.335	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.304	1.000	-0.304	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.875	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.875	0.000	0.125	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.159	-
predicted_BB	0.250	-
predicted_H	0.450	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.208	-
predicted_R	0.188	-
predicted_RBI	0.520	-
predicted_SLG	0.335	-
predicted_SO	0.875	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.203	-0.047
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.435	-0.065
predicted_AVG	0.159	0.000
predicted_BB	0.224	-0.026
predicted_H	0.509	0.059
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.134	0.014
predicted_OBP	0.208	-0.000
predicted_R	0.257	0.069
predicted_RBI	0.588	0.068
predicted_SLG	0.335	0.000
predicted_SO	0.923	0.048

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.145 HR/AB=0.038

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, BvP AVG=0.500)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	0.1875	0.2353	0.4375	0.1875	0.0625	0.2500	0.0625	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	2.000	2.000	12.000	0.1111	0.1579	0.2222	0.1111	0.0278	0.1111	0.0556	0.3333
season	0.20	16	-	56.000	10.000	4.000	1.000	9.000	3.000	4.000	14.000	0.1786	0.2333	0.3036	0.1786	0.0179	0.1607	0.0714	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1770
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4000
predicted_AVG	0.1590
predicted_BB	0.2100
predicted_H	0.5410
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1410
predicted_OBP	0.2078
predicted_R	0.2940
predicted_RBI	0.6240
predicted_SLG	0.3354
predicted_SO	0.9490

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.1770	0.2026	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.4000	3.4350	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1590	0.1590	0.1590	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2500	0.2100	0.2240	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4500	0.5410	0.5091	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1410	0.1336	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2080	0.2078	0.2079	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1880	0.2940	0.2569	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5200	0.6240	0.5876	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3350	0.3354	0.3353	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8750	0.9490	0.9231	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.179

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260503_CHW@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	592206
playerID	592206
playerName	Nick Castellanos
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	SD
teamID	23

Manny Machado (592518) · BATTER · 3B · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 32

All-history rows before 20260505: 32

System season_avg: 0.2210

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2212

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.531	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.531	4.000	-0.531	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.224	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.221	0.000	-0.221	0.000
predicted_BB	0.594	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.594	0.000	0.406	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_H	0.720	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.781	0.000	-0.781	0.000
predicted_HR	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.156	0.000	-0.156	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.295	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.328	0.000	-0.078	0.250
predicted_R	0.594	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.594	0.000	-0.594	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.460	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.562	0.000	-0.562	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.429	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.389	0.000	-0.389	0.000
predicted_SO	0.875	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.875	1.000	0.125	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.531	-
predicted_AVG	0.224	-
predicted_BB	0.594	-
predicted_H	0.720	-
predicted_HR	0.190	-
predicted_OBP	0.295	-
predicted_R	0.594	-
predicted_RBI	0.460	-
predicted_SLG	0.429	-
predicted_SO	0.875	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.104	-0.021
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.658	0.127
predicted_AVG	0.224	0.000
predicted_BB	0.453	-0.141
predicted_H	0.795	0.075
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.212	0.022
predicted_OBP	0.295	-0.000
predicted_R	0.541	-0.053
predicted_RBI	0.507	0.047
predicted_SLG	0.429	0.000
predicted_SO	0.980	0.105

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.66), rates preserved: AVG=0.217 HR/AB=0.058

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=43.0, BvP AVG=0.302)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	0.1667	0.2500	0.3333	0.1667	0.0556	0.1111	0.1111	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	12.000	2.000	3.000	7.000	9.000	2.000	9.000	0.3000	0.3333	0.5750	0.3000	0.0750	0.1750	0.0500	0.2250
season	0.20	32	-	113.000	25.000	4.000	5.000	18.000	19.000	19.000	28.000	0.2212	0.3284	0.3894	0.2212	0.0442	0.1593	0.1681	0.2478

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0920
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7260
predicted_AVG	0.2243
predicted_BB	0.3770
predicted_H	0.8360
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.2240
predicted_OBP	0.2948
predicted_R	0.5120
predicted_RBI	0.5330
predicted_SLG	0.4291
predicted_SO	1.0370

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.0920	0.1036	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5310	3.7260	3.6578	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2240	0.2243	0.2242	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5940	0.3770	0.4529	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7200	0.8360	0.7954	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1900	0.2240	0.2121	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2950	0.2948	0.2949	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5940	0.5120	0.5407	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4600	0.5330	0.5075	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4290	0.4291	0.4291	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8750	1.0370	0.9803	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.221

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260504_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	592518
playerID	592518
playerName	Manny Machado
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	SD
teamID	23

Walker Buehler (621111) · PITCHER · Starter · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 6

All-history rows before 20260505: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.500	2.000	1.500	2.000
predicted_IP	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	3.933	4.200	-0.933	-1.200
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	4.000	4.000	-3.000	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 3.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	21.000	12.000	22.000	10.000	21.000	0.000	5.1429	1.5238	0.5714	1.0476	0.4762	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	6	25.000	15.000	27.000	12.000	24.000	1.000	5.4000	1.5600	0.6000	1.0800	0.4800	0.9600	0.0400
season	0.20	6	25.000	15.000	27.000	12.000	24.000	1.000	5.4000	1.5600	0.6000	1.0800	0.4800	0.9600	0.0400

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.0000
predicted_ER	2.4550
predicted_ERA	5.2843
predicted_H	4.4550
predicted_HR	0.0920
predicted_IP	4.1820
predicted_SO	4.0900
predicted_WHIP	1.5437

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	2.0000	1.6500	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	4.0000	2.4550	2.9958	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.2843	5.2843	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	4.4550	3.9457	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	2.0000	0.0920	0.7598	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.0000	4.1820	3.7683	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	4.0900	3.0085	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5437	1.5437	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.0
H	3
R	4
ER	4
BB	1
SO	1
HR	2
BF	13
Pitches	53

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	3
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	22
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	5.40
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	6
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.2
Pitching_Pitches	92
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	48
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260428_CHC@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	621111
playerID	621111
playerName	Walker Buehler
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Adrian Morejon (670970) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 15

All-history rows before 20260505: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.800	2.000	-0.800	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.013	2.000	-0.013	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.400	4.000	-1.400	-4.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.333	4.000	5.000	3.000	9.000	2.000	5.6842	1.2632	0.6316	0.7895	0.4737	1.4210	0.3158
last_10	0.35	10	12.000	6.000	9.000	4.000	16.000	2.000	4.5000	1.0833	0.5000	0.7500	0.3333	1.3333	0.1667
season	0.20	15	18.000	12.000	20.000	5.000	21.000	2.000	6.0000	1.3889	0.6667	1.1111	0.2778	1.1667	0.1111

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4740
predicted_ER	0.7290
predicted_ERA	5.3329
predicted_H	1.0330
predicted_HR	0.2740
predicted_IP	1.2300
predicted_SO	1.6480
predicted_WHIP	1.2254

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.4740	0.6581	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.7290	0.4738	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.3329	5.3329	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.0330	1.0214	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.2740	0.1781	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.2300	1.1495	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.6480	1.0712	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2254	1.2254	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	21

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	8
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	6.00
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	31
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	4
Pitching_Strikes	23
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_CHW@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	670970
playerID	670970
playerName	Adrian Morejon
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Bradgley Rodriguez (699134) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 14

All-history rows before 20260505: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.957	1.100	0.043	-0.100
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.857	0.000	0.143	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	3.0000	1.0000	0.3333	0.5000	0.5000	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	10.333	2.000	7.000	5.000	6.000	1.7419	1.1613	0.1935	0.6774	0.4839	0.5806
season	0.20	14	16.667	3.000	13.000	5.000	12.000	1.6200	1.0800	0.1800	0.7800	0.3000	0.7200

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5180
predicted_ER	0.2890
predicted_ERA	2.2837
predicted_H	0.7040
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.1400
predicted_SO	0.5670
predicted_WHIP	1.0725

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.5180	0.3367	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2890	0.1878	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.2837	2.2837	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7040	0.4576	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.1400	1.0910	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.5670	0.7186	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0725	1.0725	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	11

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.62
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	699134
playerID	699134
playerName	Bradgley Rodriguez
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Jason Adam (592094) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 10

All-history rows before 20260505: 10

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.200	0.000	0.800	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.830	1.000	0.170	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.333	1.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	1.000	1.6875	0.5625	0.1875	0.3750	0.1875	0.7500	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	2.000	6.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	2.0000	0.8889	0.2222	0.6667	0.2222	0.5556	0.1111
season	0.20	10	9.000	2.000	6.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	2.0000	0.8889	0.2222	0.6667	0.2222	0.5556	0.1111

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2010
predicted_ER	0.2010
predicted_ERA	1.8594
predicted_H	0.5220
predicted_HR	0.1420
predicted_IP	0.9750
predicted_SO	0.6270
predicted_WHIP	0.7420

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2010	0.1307	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.2010	0.4807	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.8594	1.8594	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	0.5220	1.3893	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.1420	0.0923	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9750	0.9838	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.6270	0.4076	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.7420	0.7420	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	3
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.00
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_CHW@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	592094
playerID	592094
playerName	Jason Adam
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Mason Miller (695243) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 16

All-history rows before 20260505: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.006	1.000	-0.006	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	2.000	3.000	-1.000	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	2.000	5.000	1.000	5.000	3.6000	1.2000	0.4000	1.0000	0.2000	1.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	2.000	6.000	2.000	16.000	1.8000	0.8000	0.2000	0.6000	0.2000	1.6000
season	0.20	16	16.333	2.000	7.000	3.000	32.000	1.1020	0.6122	0.1225	0.4286	0.1837	1.9592

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1980
predicted_ER	0.2760
predicted_ERA	2.4704
predicted_H	0.7490
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0040
predicted_SO	1.4080
predicted_WHIP	0.9424

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1980	0.1287	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2760	0.1794	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.4704	2.4704	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7490	0.8368	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0040	1.0026	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.4080	1.2652	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9424	0.9424	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.10
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_CHW@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	695243
playerID	695243
playerName	Mason Miller
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Ron Marinaccio (676760) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SD

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 12

All-history rows before 20260505: 12

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.917	1.000	-0.917	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.458	2.000	-0.458	-1.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.083	1.000	0.917	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 12

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	7.333	6.000	13.000	4.000	3.000	0.000	7.3636	2.3182	0.8182	1.7727	0.5454	0.4091	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	14.667	9.000	19.000	6.000	9.000	1.000	5.5227	1.7045	0.6136	1.2954	0.4091	0.6136	0.0682
season	0.20	12	18.667	11.000	22.000	6.000	13.000	2.000	5.3036	1.5000	0.5893	1.1786	0.3214	0.6964	0.1071

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6720
predicted_ER	1.0400
predicted_ERA	6.3073
predicted_H	2.2070
predicted_HR	0.0670
predicted_IP	1.4840
predicted_SO	0.7990
predicted_WHIP	1.9398

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6720	0.4368	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	1.0400	0.6760	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	6.3073	6.3073	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	2.2070	2.1345	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0670	0.0436	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.4840	1.3146	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.7990	1.2193	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.9398	1.9398	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	12
Season rows before report date	12
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	12
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	5
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	10
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	5.30
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	41
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	27
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260501_CHW@SD
game_type	full
mlbID	676760
playerID	676760
playerName	Ron Marinaccio
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SD
teamID	23

Home Team: SF

Bryce Eldridge (805811) · BATTER · DH · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 1

All-history rows before 20260505: 1

System season_avg: 0.0000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.0000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.500	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	2.000	2.000	2.000	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.000	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.000	0.000	0.250	0.250
predicted_BB	1.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.333	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.333	-0.083	-0.083
predicted_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.000	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.000	0.000	0.500	0.500
predicted_SO	1.250	3.000	3.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	1.000	2.000	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.000	-
predicted_BB	1.250	-
predicted_H	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.333	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.000	-
predicted_SLG	0.000	-
predicted_SO	1.250	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.175	-0.325
predicted_AVG	0.000	0.000
predicted_BB	1.087	-0.163
predicted_H	0.000	0.000
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.333	0.000
predicted_R	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.000	0.000
predicted_SO	1.087	-0.163

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.000 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	3.000	2.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total BB	Total SO	OBP	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	1	-	2.000	1.000	1.000	0.3333	0.5000	0.5000
last_10	0.35	1	-	2.000	1.000	1.000	0.3333	0.5000	0.5000
season	0.20	1	-	2.000	1.000	1.000	0.3333	0.5000	0.5000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.0000
predicted_AVG	0.0000
predicted_BB	1.0000
predicted_H	0.0000
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.3333
predicted_R	0.0000
predicted_RBI	0.0000
predicted_SLG	0.0000
predicted_SO	1.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.5000	2.0000	2.1750	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	1.2500	1.0000	1.0875	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3330	0.3333	0.3332	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2500	1.0000	1.0875	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	3
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260504_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	805811
playerID	805811
playerName	Bryce Eldridge
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	SF
teamID	24

Willy Adames (642715) · BATTER · SS · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 34

All-history rows before 20260505: 34

System season_avg: 0.1970

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1971

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.324	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.324	0.000	0.676	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.029	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.029	4.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.164	0.750	0.750	Hitting_AVG	0.197	0.250	0.553	0.500
predicted_BB	0.176	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_H	0.530	3.000	3.000	Hitting_H	0.794	1.000	2.206	2.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.088	0.000	-0.088	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.180	0.750	0.750	Hitting_OBP	0.236	0.250	0.514	0.500
predicted_R	0.353	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.353	0.000	0.647	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.029	1.000	-0.029	-1.000
predicted_SLG	0.225	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.343	0.250	0.657	0.750
predicted_SO	1.324	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.324	2.000	-1.324	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.324	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.029	-
predicted_AVG	0.164	-
predicted_BB	0.176	-
predicted_H	0.530	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.180	-
predicted_R	0.353	-
predicted_RBI	0.030	-
predicted_SLG	0.225	-
predicted_SO	1.324	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.237	-0.087
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.014	-0.015
predicted_AVG	0.164	0.000
predicted_BB	0.107	-0.069
predicted_H	0.614	0.084
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.015	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.180	-0.000
predicted_R	0.169	-0.184
predicted_RBI	0.033	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.225	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.386	0.062

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.03), rates preserved: AVG=0.152 HR/AB=0.004

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 4.029

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	7.000	0.2000	0.2000	0.2500	0.2000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.3500
last_10	0.35	10	-	40.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	15.000	0.1000	0.1220	0.1250	0.1000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0250	0.3750
season	0.20	34	-	137.000	27.000	11.000	3.000	6.000	12.000	6.000	45.000	0.1971	0.2361	0.3431	0.1971	0.0219	0.0438	0.0438	0.3285

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1900
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.0060
predicted_AVG	0.1644
predicted_BB	0.0700
predicted_H	0.6590
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0180
predicted_OBP	0.1799
predicted_R	0.0700
predicted_RBI	0.0350
predicted_SLG	0.2249
predicted_SO	1.4200

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3240	0.1900	0.2369	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0290	4.0060	4.0141	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1640	0.1644	0.1643	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1760	0.0700	0.1071	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5300	0.6590	0.6139	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0180	0.0152	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1800	0.1799	0.1799	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3530	0.0700	0.1690	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0300	0.0350	0.0333	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2250	0.2249	0.2249	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.3240	1.4200	1.3864	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	3
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.197

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	1
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260504_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	642715
playerID	642715
playerName	Willy Adames
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	SF
teamID	24

Matt Chapman (656305) · BATTER · 3B · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 34

All-history rows before 20260505: 34

System season_avg: 0.2460

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2462

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.176	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_AB	3.824	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.824	4.000	-0.824	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.134	0.667	0.667	Hitting_AVG	0.246	0.000	0.421	0.667
predicted_BB	0.412	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.412	0.000	0.588	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_H	0.420	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.941	0.000	1.059	2.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.260	0.750	0.750	Hitting_OBP	0.324	0.000	0.426	0.750
predicted_R	0.471	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.471	0.000	0.529	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.060	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.353	0.000	0.647	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.194	0.667	0.667	Hitting_SLG	0.331	0.000	0.336	0.667
predicted_SO	1.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.176	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.824	-
predicted_AVG	0.134	-
predicted_BB	0.412	-
predicted_H	0.420	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.260	-
predicted_R	0.471	-
predicted_RBI	0.060	-
predicted_SLG	0.194	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.189	0.013
predicted_3B	0.014	-0.015
predicted_AB	3.802	-0.022
predicted_AVG	0.134	0.000
predicted_BB	0.536	0.124
predicted_H	0.478	0.058
predicted_HBP	0.044	-
predicted_HR	0.004	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.260	0.000
predicted_R	0.355	-0.116
predicted_RBI	0.067	0.007
predicted_SLG	0.194	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.292	0.292

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.82), rates preserved: AVG=0.125 HR/AB=0.001

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.824

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	2.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	0.1000	0.2174	0.1500	0.1000	0.0000	0.0000	0.1500	0.4000
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	7.000	15.000	0.1143	0.2791	0.1714	0.1143	0.0000	0.0000	0.2000	0.4286
season	0.20	34	-	130.000	32.000	6.000	1.000	1.000	12.000	16.000	14.000	34.000	0.2462	0.3241	0.3308	0.2462	0.0077	0.0923	0.1077	0.2615

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1960
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.7900
predicted_AVG	0.1342
predicted_BB	0.6030
predicted_H	0.5090
predicted_HBP	0.0440
predicted_HR	0.0060
predicted_OBP	0.2603
predicted_R	0.2920
predicted_RBI	0.0700
predicted_SLG	0.1936
predicted_SO	1.4490

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1760	0.1960	0.1890	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0060	0.0140	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8240	3.7900	3.8019	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1340	0.1342	0.1341	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4120	0.6030	0.5362	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4200	0.5090	0.4778	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0440	0.0440	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0060	0.0039	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2600	0.2603	0.2602	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4710	0.2920	0.3546	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0600	0.0700	0.0665	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1940	0.1936	0.1937	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.4490	1.2919	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.246

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260503_SF@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	656305
playerID	656305
playerName	Matt Chapman
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	SF
teamID	24

Jung Hoo Lee (808982) · BATTER · RF · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 34

All-history rows before 20260505: 34

System season_avg: 0.2740

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2742

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_2B	0.235	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.235	0.000	-0.235
predicted_3B	0.029	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.029	0.000	-0.029
predicted_AB	3.647	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.647	4.000	0.353
predicted_AVG	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.274	0.000	-0.274
predicted_BB	0.294	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.294	0.000	-0.294
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.810	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.000	0.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.059	0.000	-0.059
predicted_OBP	0.306	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.326	0.000	-0.326
predicted_R	0.412	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.412	0.000	-0.412
predicted_RBI	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.294	0.000	-0.294
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.331	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.403	0.000	-0.403
predicted_SO	0.529	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.529	0.000	-0.529

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.235	-
predicted_3B	0.029	-
predicted_AB	3.647	-
predicted_AVG	0.240	-
predicted_BB	0.294	-
predicted_H	0.810	-
predicted_HR	0.040	-
predicted_OBP	0.306	-
predicted_R	0.412	-
predicted_RBI	0.200	-
predicted_SLG	0.331	-
predicted_SO	0.529	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.157	-0.078
predicted_3B	0.036	0.007
predicted_AB	3.668	0.021
predicted_AVG	0.240	0.000
predicted_BB	0.327	0.033
predicted_H	0.858	0.048
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.044	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.306	-0.000
predicted_R	0.368	-0.044
predicted_RBI	0.212	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.331	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.402	-0.127

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.234 HR/AB=0.012

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.1667	0.2500	0.1667	0.1667	0.0000	0.0556	0.1111	0.0556
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	12.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	4.000	0.3158	0.3659	0.5000	0.3158	0.0263	0.0526	0.0790	0.1053
season	0.20	34	-	124.000	34.000	8.000	1.000	2.000	10.000	14.000	10.000	18.000	0.2742	0.3259	0.4032	0.2742	0.0161	0.0806	0.0806	0.1452

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1150
predicted_3B	0.0400
predicted_AB	3.6790
predicted_AVG	0.2404
predicted_BB	0.3450
predicted_H	0.8840
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0460
predicted_OBP	0.3057
predicted_R	0.3450
predicted_RBI	0.2190
predicted_SLG	0.3307
predicted_SO	0.3340

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2350	0.1150	0.1570	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0290	0.0400	0.0362	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6470	3.6790	3.6678	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2400	0.2404	0.2403	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2940	0.3450	0.3271	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8100	0.8840	0.8581	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0400	0.0460	0.0439	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3060	0.3057	0.3058	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4120	0.3450	0.3684	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2000	0.2190	0.2123	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3310	0.3307	0.3308	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5290	0.3340	0.4022	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.274

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260504_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	808982
playerID	808982
playerName	Jung Hoo Lee
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	SF
teamID	24

Drew Gilbert (687551) · BATTER · CF · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 15

All-history rows before 20260505: 15

System season_avg: 0.2770

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2766

Diff (system - data): 0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.067	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.133	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.133	3.000	0.867	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.304	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.277	0.000	-0.027	0.250
predicted_BB	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.740	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.867	0.000	0.133	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.133	0.000	0.867	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.337	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.320	0.000	-0.070	0.250
predicted_R	0.333	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	0.667	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.200	3.000	3.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	2.667	3.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.406	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.426	0.000	0.574	1.000
predicted_SO	0.600	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.067	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.133	-
predicted_AVG	0.304	-
predicted_BB	0.200	-
predicted_H	0.740	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.337	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.200	-
predicted_SLG	0.406	-
predicted_SO	0.600	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.112	0.045
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.204	0.071
predicted_AVG	0.304	0.000
predicted_BB	0.177	-0.023
predicted_H	0.901	0.161
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.059	0.009
predicted_OBP	0.337	0.000
predicted_R	0.289	-0.044
predicted_RBI	0.242	0.042
predicted_SLG	0.406	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.545	-0.055

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.20), rates preserved: AVG=0.281 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	3.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	6.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.3529	0.3889	0.4118	0.3529	0.0000	0.0588	0.0588	0.1177
last_10	0.35	10	-	31.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	0.2581	0.2812	0.3871	0.2581	0.0323	0.0968	0.0323	0.1935
season	0.20	15	-	47.000	13.000	1.000	2.000	5.000	5.000	3.000	9.000	0.2766	0.3200	0.4255	0.2766	0.0425	0.1064	0.0638	0.1915

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1360
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.2420
predicted_AVG	0.3045
predicted_BB	0.1640
predicted_H	0.9870
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0640
predicted_OBP	0.3374
predicted_R	0.2650
predicted_RBI	0.2650
predicted_SLG	0.4059
predicted_SO	0.5150

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0670	0.1360	0.1119	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1330	3.2420	3.2039	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3040	0.3045	0.3043	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2000	0.1640	0.1766	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7400	0.9870	0.9006	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0640	0.0591	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3370	0.3374	0.3373	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.2650	0.2888	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2000	0.2650	0.2423	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4060	0.4059	0.4059	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6000	0.5150	0.5448	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	3
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.277

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260504_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	687551
playerID	687551
playerName	Drew Gilbert
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	SF
teamID	24

Casey Schmitt (669477) · BATTER · 2B · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 29

All-history rows before 20260505: 29

System season_avg: 0.3080

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3084

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.276	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.276	0.000	-0.276	0.000
predicted_3B	0.034	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_AB	3.690	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.690	3.000	0.310	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.354	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.308	0.333	-0.058	-0.083
predicted_BB	0.172	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.172	1.000	-0.172	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.034	0.000	-0.034	0.000
predicted_H	1.180	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.138	1.000	-0.138	0.000
predicted_HR	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.172	1.000	-0.172	-1.000
predicted_OBP	0.413	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.359	0.500	-0.109	-0.250
predicted_R	0.448	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.448	1.000	0.552	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.520	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.552	1.000	-0.552	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.069	0.000	-0.069	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.636	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.542	1.333	-0.292	-1.083
predicted_SO	0.793	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.793	1.000	-0.793	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.276	-
predicted_3B	0.034	-
predicted_AB	3.690	-
predicted_AVG	0.354	-
predicted_BB	0.172	-
predicted_H	1.180	-
predicted_HR	0.210	-
predicted_OBP	0.413	-
predicted_R	0.448	-
predicted_RBI	0.520	-
predicted_SLG	0.636	-
predicted_SO	0.793	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.156	-0.120
predicted_3B	0.097	0.063
predicted_AB	3.702	0.012
predicted_AVG	0.354	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.210	0.038
predicted_H	1.266	0.086
predicted_HBP	0.152	-
predicted_HR	0.224	0.014
predicted_OBP	0.413	0.000
predicted_R	0.527	0.079
predicted_RBI	0.556	0.036
predicted_SLG	0.636	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.727	-0.066

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.70), rates preserved: AVG=0.342 HR/AB=0.060

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	7.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.3684	0.4286	0.6316	0.3684	0.0526	0.1053	0.0526	0.2105
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	13.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	6.000	3.000	5.000	0.3611	0.4250	0.6944	0.3611	0.0833	0.2222	0.0833	0.1389
season	0.20	29	-	107.000	33.000	8.000	1.000	5.000	16.000	13.000	5.000	23.000	0.3084	0.3590	0.5421	0.3084	0.0467	0.1495	0.0467	0.2150

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0920
predicted_3B	0.1310
predicted_AB	3.7080
predicted_AVG	0.3538
predicted_BB	0.2310
predicted_H	1.3120
predicted_HBP	0.1520
predicted_HR	0.2310
predicted_OBP	0.4134
predicted_R	0.5700
predicted_RBI	0.5750
predicted_SLG	0.6357
predicted_SO	0.6910

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2760	0.0920	0.1564	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0340	0.1310	0.0970	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6900	3.7080	3.7017	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3540	0.3538	0.3539	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1720	0.2310	0.2103	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.1800	1.3120	1.2658	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1520	0.1520	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2100	0.2310	0.2237	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4130	0.4134	0.4133	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4480	0.5700	0.5273	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.5200	0.5750	0.5557	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.6360	0.6357	0.6358	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7930	0.6910	0.7267	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.308

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260504_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	669477
playerID	669477
playerName	Casey Schmitt
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	SF
teamID	24

Jesus Rodriguez (683679) · BATTER · C · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 1

All-history rows before 20260505: 1

System season_avg: 0.0000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.0000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.000	3.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.000	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.000	0.000	0.250	0.250
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.000	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.000	0.000	0.250	0.250
predicted_R	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.000	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.000	-
predicted_R	0.000	-
predicted_RBI	0.000	-
predicted_SLG	0.000	-
predicted_SO	0.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.000	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.000	0.000
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.000	0.000
predicted_R	0.000	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.000	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.000 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB
last_5	0.45	1	-	3.000
last_10	0.35	1	-	3.000
season	0.20	1	-	3.000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.0000
predicted_AVG	0.0000
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_H	0.0000
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.0000
predicted_R	0.0000
predicted_RBI	0.0000
predicted_SLG	0.0000
predicted_SO	0.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0000	3.0000	3.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.0

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260504_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	683679
playerID	683679
playerName	Jesus Rodriguez
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	SF
teamID	24

Rafael Devers (646240) · BATTER · 1B · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 35

All-history rows before 20260505: 35

System season_avg: 0.2180

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2180

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.171	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.171	0.000	-0.171	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.800	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.800	2.000	-0.800	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.257	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.218	0.500	-0.218	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.257	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.257	1.000	0.743	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.890	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.829	1.000	-0.829	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.323	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.264	0.500	-0.014	-0.250
predicted_R	0.257	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.257	0.000	-0.257	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.670	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.400	2.000	-0.400	-2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.367	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.308	0.500	-0.308	-0.500
predicted_SO	1.229	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.229	0.000	-1.229	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.171	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.800	-
predicted_AVG	0.257	-
predicted_BB	0.257	-
predicted_H	0.890	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.323	-
predicted_R	0.257	-
predicted_RBI	0.670	-
predicted_SLG	0.367	-
predicted_SO	1.229	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.274	0.103
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.452	-0.348
predicted_AVG	0.257	0.000
predicted_BB	0.400	0.143
predicted_H	0.858	-0.032
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.323	-0.000
predicted_R	0.227	-0.030
predicted_RBI	0.647	-0.023
predicted_SLG	0.367	0.000
predicted_SO	1.111	-0.118

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.226 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	0.3333	0.4000	0.4667	0.3333	0.0000	0.2667	0.2000	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	6.000	3.000	0.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	10.000	0.1818	0.2564	0.2727	0.1818	0.0000	0.1515	0.1212	0.3030
season	0.20	35	-	133.000	29.000	6.000	2.000	14.000	9.000	9.000	43.000	0.2180	0.2639	0.3083	0.2180	0.0150	0.1053	0.0677	0.3233

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3290
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.2650
predicted_AVG	0.2572
predicted_BB	0.4770
predicted_H	0.8400
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0100
predicted_OBP	0.3225
predicted_R	0.2110
predicted_RBI	0.6340
predicted_SLG	0.3671
predicted_SO	1.0470

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1710	0.3290	0.2737	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8000	3.2650	3.4523	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2570	0.2572	0.2571	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2570	0.4770	0.4000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8900	0.8400	0.8575	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0100	0.0100	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3230	0.3225	0.3227	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2570	0.2110	0.2271	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6700	0.6340	0.6466	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3670	0.3671	0.3671	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2290	1.0470	1.1107	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.218

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	2
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260504_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	646240
playerID	646240
playerName	Rafael Devers
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	SF
teamID	24

Heliot Ramos (671218) · BATTER · LF · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 32

All-history rows before 20260505: 32

System season_avg: 0.2680

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2683

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_3B	0.031	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.031	1.000	-0.031	-1.000
predicted_AB	3.844	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.844	4.000	0.156	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.238	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.268	0.250	-0.018	0.000
predicted_BB	0.188	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.188	0.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.830	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.031	1.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.094	0.000	-0.094	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.254	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.300	0.250	-0.050	0.000
predicted_R	0.375	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.438	0.000	-0.438	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.414	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.423	0.750	-0.173	-0.500
predicted_SO	1.156	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.156	0.000	-0.156	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.031	-
predicted_AB	3.844	-
predicted_AVG	0.238	-
predicted_BB	0.188	-
predicted_H	0.830	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.254	-
predicted_R	0.375	-
predicted_RBI	0.220	-
predicted_SLG	0.414	-
predicted_SO	1.156	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.271	0.021
predicted_3B	0.095	0.064
predicted_AB	3.961	0.117
predicted_AVG	0.238	0.000
predicted_BB	0.138	-0.050
predicted_H	0.913	0.083
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.054	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.254	0.000
predicted_R	0.253	-0.122
predicted_RBI	0.239	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.414	0.000
predicted_SO	1.053	-0.103

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.96), rates preserved: AVG=0.231 HR/AB=0.014

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.844

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	0.1905	0.1905	0.3333	0.1905	0.0000	0.0476	0.0000	0.2381
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	11.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	9.000	0.2821	0.3095	0.5128	0.2821	0.0256	0.0513	0.0513	0.2308
season	0.20	32	-	123.000	33.000	8.000	1.000	3.000	14.000	12.000	6.000	37.000	0.2683	0.3000	0.4228	0.2683	0.0244	0.1138	0.0488	0.3008

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2830
predicted_3B	0.1290
predicted_AB	4.0240
predicted_AVG	0.2381
predicted_BB	0.1110
predicted_H	0.9580
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0560
predicted_OBP	0.2540
predicted_R	0.1870
predicted_RBI	0.2500
predicted_SLG	0.4140
predicted_SO	0.9980

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.2830	0.2714	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0310	0.1290	0.0947	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8440	4.0240	3.9610	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2380	0.2381	0.2381	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1880	0.1110	0.1380	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8300	0.9580	0.9132	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0560	0.0539	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2540	0.2540	0.2540	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3750	0.1870	0.2528	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2200	0.2500	0.2395	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4140	0.4140	0.4140	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1560	0.9980	1.0533	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.268

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	1
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260504_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	671218
playerID	671218
playerName	Heliot Ramos
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	SF
teamID	24

Logan Webb (657277) · PITCHER · Starter · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 7

All-history rows before 20260505: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	3.000	1.000	-1.000	1.000
predicted_IP	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	6.286	7.000	-1.286	-2.000
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_SO	5.429	6.000	-0.429	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 5.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	33.000	12.000	33.000	10.000	26.000	3.000	3.2727	1.3030	0.3636	1.0000	0.3030	0.7879	0.0909
last_10	0.35	7	44.000	21.000	45.000	15.000	38.000	3.000	4.2955	1.3636	0.4773	1.0227	0.3409	0.8636	0.0682
season	0.20	7	44.000	21.000	45.000	15.000	38.000	3.000	4.2955	1.3636	0.4773	1.0227	0.3409	0.8636	0.0682

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	2.0820
predicted_ER	2.7390
predicted_ERA	3.8352
predicted_H	6.5070
predicted_HR	0.5040
predicted_IP	6.4270
predicted_SO	5.3320
predicted_WHIP	1.3363

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	2.0820	2.0533	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.7390	2.4803	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.8352	3.8352	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	6.5070	4.9295	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.5040	0.6776	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.0000	6.4270	5.9276	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	5.3320	5.2158	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3363	1.3363	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.0
H	2
R	2
ER	2
BB	2
SO	5
HR	1
BF	18
Pitches	73

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	27
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	4.30
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	9
Pitching_H	7
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	7.0
Pitching_Pitches	92
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	6
Pitching_Strikes	65
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260430_SF@PHI
game_type	full
mlbID	657277
playerID	657277
playerName	Logan Webb
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Caleb Kilian (668873) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 15

All-history rows before 20260505: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.133	1.000	0.867	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.927	1.000	0.073	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.200	2.000	-1.200	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	1.000	6.000	2.000	4.000	1.000	1.5000	1.3333	0.1667	1.0000	0.3333	0.6667	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	11.333	2.000	8.000	7.000	12.000	2.000	1.5882	1.3235	0.1765	0.7059	0.6177	1.0588	0.1765
season	0.20	15	16.000	2.000	8.000	8.000	18.000	2.000	1.1250	1.0000	0.1250	0.5000	0.5000	1.1250	0.1250

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.5360
predicted_ER	0.1860
predicted_ERA	1.4559
predicted_H	0.9170
predicted_HR	0.1860
predicted_IP	1.1500
predicted_SO	1.0300
predicted_WHIP	1.2632

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.5360	0.6984	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.1860	0.4709	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.4559	1.4559	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.9170	0.5961	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.1860	0.4709	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.1500	1.0975	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0300	0.6695	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2632	1.2632	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	0
HR	1
BF	5
Pitches	23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	1.13
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	668873
playerID	668873
playerName	Caleb Kilian
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Keaton Winn (676775) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 15

All-history rows before 20260505: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.267	0.000	-0.267	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.947	1.000	0.053	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.867	0.000	0.133	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.333	1.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	1.6875	1.1250	0.1875	0.5625	0.5625	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	10.333	1.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	0.8710	0.5806	0.0968	0.2903	0.2903	0.5806
season	0.20	15	14.667	4.000	7.000	5.000	13.000	2.4545	0.8182	0.2727	0.4773	0.3409	0.8864

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4390
predicted_ER	0.1790
predicted_ERA	1.5551
predicted_H	0.4670
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0370
predicted_SO	0.4820
predicted_WHIP	0.8731

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4390	0.2853	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1790	0.1163	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.5551	1.5551	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.4670	0.3036	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0370	1.0240	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.4820	0.6633	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8731	0.8731	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.45
Pitching_Flyouts	2
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	8
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_SD@SF
game_type	full
mlbID	676775
playerID	676775
playerName	Keaton Winn
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Matt Gage (657424) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 16

All-history rows before 20260505: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.656	0.200	0.344	0.800
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.562	1.000	1.438	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	0.0000	1.5000	0.0000	0.5000	1.0000	0.5000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	7.667	2.000	4.000	6.000	4.000	1.000	2.3478	1.3043	0.2609	0.5217	0.7826	0.5217	0.1304
season	0.20	16	14.000	2.000	7.000	9.000	9.000	1.000	1.2857	1.1429	0.1429	0.5000	0.6429	0.6429	0.0714

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6850
predicted_ER	0.0960
predicted_ERA	1.0789
predicted_H	0.4080
predicted_HR	0.0480
predicted_IP	0.8030
predicted_SO	0.4310
predicted_WHIP	1.3601

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6850	0.4453	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0960	0.0624	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.0789	1.0789	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.4080	0.2652	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0480	0.0312	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.8030	0.8720	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.4310	0.9801	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3601	1.3601	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.29
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_SF@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	657424
playerID	657424
playerName	Matt Gage
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

Ryan Walker (676254) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team SF

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 14

All-history rows before 20260505: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.500	1.000	-0.500	-1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.843	1.000	0.157	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.929	0.000	1.071	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.667	3.000	5.000	2.000	3.000	0.000	5.7857	1.5000	0.6429	1.0714	0.4286	0.6429	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.667	5.000	12.000	5.000	9.000	0.000	4.2188	1.5938	0.4688	1.1250	0.4688	0.8438	0.0000
season	0.20	14	13.667	7.000	14.000	7.000	13.000	1.000	4.6098	1.5366	0.5122	1.0244	0.5122	0.9512	0.0732

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4540
predicted_ER	0.5490
predicted_ERA	5.0021
predicted_H	1.0680
predicted_HR	0.0140
predicted_IP	0.9890
predicted_SO	0.7660
predicted_WHIP	1.5402

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.4540	0.9951	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5490	0.3569	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.0021	5.0021	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.0680	1.0442	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0140	0.0091	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9890	0.9929	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	0.7660	1.1979	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.5402	1.5402	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	2
SO	2
HR	0
BF	6
Pitches	32

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	4.61
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	14
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	BS
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_SF@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	676254
playerID	676254
playerName	Ryan Walker
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	SF
teamID	24

20260505_TEX@NYY

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 1, "home_runs": 5, "confidence": 0.58, "home_win_probability": 0.58, "away_win_probability": 0.42000000000000004, "predicted_score_text": "TEX 1 - 5 NYY", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps. Matchup recency guardrail cap enforced after calibration.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "predicted_score_text": "TEX 3 - 4 NYY", "confidence": 0.58, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 3, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TEX 3 - 4 NYY", "winner": "NYY"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 1, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "TEX 1 - 5 NYY", "winner": "NYY"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -2, "home_run_delta": 1, "total_run_delta": -1, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Away Team: TEX

Evan Carter (694497) · BATTER · CF · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 29

All-history rows before 20260505: 29

System season_avg: 0.1830

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1828

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.138	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.138	0.000	-0.138	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.207	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.207	4.000	0.793	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.072	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.183	0.000	0.067	0.250
predicted_BB	0.483	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.483	0.000	-0.483	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.210	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.586	0.000	0.414	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.103	0.000	-0.103	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.149	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.294	0.000	-0.044	0.250
predicted_R	0.345	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.345	0.000	-0.345	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.310	0.000	-0.310	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.172	0.000	-0.172	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.135	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.323	0.000	-0.073	0.250
predicted_SO	0.897	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.897	0.000	0.103	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.138	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.207	-
predicted_AVG	0.072	-
predicted_BB	0.483	-
predicted_H	0.210	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.149	-
predicted_R	0.345	-
predicted_RBI	0.130	-
predicted_SLG	0.135	-
predicted_SO	0.897	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.066	-0.072
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.158	-0.049
predicted_AVG	0.072	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.335	-0.148
predicted_H	0.219	0.009
predicted_HBP	0.043	-
predicted_HR	0.055	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.149	-0.000
predicted_R	0.293	-0.052
predicted_RBI	0.133	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.135	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.790	-0.107

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.21), rates preserved: AVG=0.068 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 29

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.0000	0.0588	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0625	0.1875
last_10	0.35	10	-	30.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	2.000	8.000	0.1000	0.1818	0.2000	0.1000	0.0333	0.0667	0.0667	0.2667
season	0.20	29	-	93.000	17.000	4.000	3.000	9.000	10.000	14.000	26.000	0.1828	0.2936	0.3226	0.1828	0.0323	0.0968	0.1505	0.2796

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0270
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.1310
predicted_AVG	0.0716
predicted_BB	0.2550
predicted_H	0.2240
predicted_HBP	0.0430
predicted_HR	0.0570
predicted_OBP	0.1488
predicted_R	0.2650
predicted_RBI	0.1340
predicted_SLG	0.1345
predicted_SO	0.7320

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1380	0.0270	0.0659	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2070	3.1310	3.1576	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.0720	0.0716	0.0717	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4830	0.2550	0.3348	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.2100	0.2240	0.2191	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0430	0.0430	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0570	0.0546	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1490	0.1488	0.1489	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3450	0.2650	0.2930	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1300	0.1340	0.1326	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1350	0.1345	0.1347	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8970	0.7320	0.7897	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	29
Season rows before report date	29
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	29
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.183

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260503_TEX@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	694497
playerID	694497
playerName	Evan Carter
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	TEX
teamID	28

Josh Jung (673962) · BATTER · 3B · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 30

All-history rows before 20260505: 30

System season_avg: 0.3270

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3274

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.767	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.767	4.000	0.233	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.366	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.327	0.250	0.173	0.250
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_H	1.270	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	1.233	1.000	0.767	1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.133	0.000	0.867	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.411	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.384	0.250	0.116	0.250
predicted_R	0.400	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.400	0.000	0.600	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.740	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.633	0.000	0.367	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.033	0.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.494	1.250	1.250	Hitting_SLG	0.540	0.250	0.710	1.000
predicted_SO	0.600	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.400	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.767	-
predicted_AVG	0.366	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	1.270	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.411	-
predicted_R	0.400	-
predicted_RBI	0.740	-
predicted_SLG	0.494	-
predicted_SO	0.600	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.345	-0.055
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.901	0.134
predicted_AVG	0.366	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.289	-0.044
predicted_H	1.390	0.120
predicted_HBP	0.044	-
predicted_HR	0.063	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.411	-0.000
predicted_R	0.266	-0.134
predicted_RBI	0.813	0.073
predicted_SLG	0.494	0.000
predicted_SO	0.498	-0.102

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.90), rates preserved: AVG=0.356 HR/AB=0.016

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	8.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.3810	0.4091	0.4286	0.3810	0.0000	0.2381	0.0476	0.0952
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	14.000	4.000	1.000	8.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	0.3684	0.4286	0.5526	0.3684	0.0263	0.2105	0.0790	0.1053
season	0.20	30	-	113.000	37.000	12.000	4.000	19.000	12.000	10.000	18.000	0.3274	0.3840	0.5398	0.3274	0.0354	0.1681	0.0885	0.1593

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3160
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9730
predicted_AVG	0.3659
predicted_BB	0.2650
predicted_H	1.4540
predicted_HBP	0.0440
predicted_HR	0.0650
predicted_OBP	0.4109
predicted_R	0.1940
predicted_RBI	0.8520
predicted_SLG	0.4942
predicted_SO	0.4430

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.4000	0.3160	0.3454	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7670	3.9730	3.9009	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3660	0.3659	0.3659	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.2650	0.2888	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2700	1.4540	1.3896	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0440	0.0440	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0650	0.0633	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4110	0.4109	0.4109	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4000	0.1940	0.2661	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7400	0.8520	0.8128	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4940	0.4942	0.4941	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6000	0.4430	0.4980	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.327

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260503_TEX@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	673962
playerID	673962
playerName	Josh Jung
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	TEX
teamID	28

Joc Pederson (592626) · BATTER · DH · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 25

All-history rows before 20260505: 25

System season_avg: 0.1830

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1831

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.040	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.840	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	2.840	4.000	1.160	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.110	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.183	0.000	0.067	0.250
predicted_BB	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.280	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.520	0.000	0.480	1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.040	0.000	-0.040	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.192	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.286	0.000	-0.036	0.250
predicted_R	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.280	0.000	-0.280	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.160	0.000	-0.160	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.121	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.239	0.000	0.011	0.250
predicted_SO	0.880	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.880	1.000	1.120	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.040	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.840	-
predicted_AVG	0.110	-
predicted_BB	0.400	-
predicted_H	0.280	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.192	-
predicted_R	0.280	-
predicted_RBI	0.160	-
predicted_SLG	0.121	-
predicted_SO	0.880	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.020	-0.020
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.040	0.200
predicted_AVG	0.110	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.347	-0.053
predicted_H	0.323	0.043
predicted_HBP	0.046	-
predicted_HR	0.009	-0.001
predicted_OBP	0.192	0.000
predicted_R	0.210	-0.070
predicted_RBI	0.181	0.021
predicted_SLG	0.121	0.000
predicted_SO	0.734	-0.146

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.04), rates preserved: AVG=0.106 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 25

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.0588	0.1053	0.0588	0.0588	0.0000	0.0588	0.0588	0.1177
last_10	0.35	10	-	30.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	8.000	0.1333	0.2500	0.1333	0.1333	0.0000	0.0667	0.1333	0.2667
season	0.20	25	-	71.000	13.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	7.000	10.000	22.000	0.1831	0.2857	0.2394	0.1831	0.0141	0.0563	0.1409	0.3099

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0090
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.1480
predicted_AVG	0.1097
predicted_BB	0.3190
predicted_H	0.3460
predicted_HBP	0.0460
predicted_HR	0.0090
predicted_OBP	0.1920
predicted_R	0.1720
predicted_RBI	0.1920
predicted_SLG	0.1210
predicted_SO	0.6560

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0400	0.0090	0.0198	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8400	3.1480	3.0402	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1100	0.1097	0.1098	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4000	0.3190	0.3473	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.2800	0.3460	0.3229	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0460	0.0460	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0090	0.0094	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1920	0.1920	0.1920	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2800	0.1720	0.2098	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1600	0.1920	0.1808	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1210	0.1210	0.1210	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8800	0.6560	0.7344	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	25
Season rows before report date	25
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	25
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.183

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260502_TEX@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	592626
playerID	592626
playerName	Joc Pederson
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	TEX
teamID	28

Ezequiel Duran (677649) · BATTER · 2B · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 20

All-history rows before 20260505: 20

System season_avg: 0.2700

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2698

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.250	1.000	-0.250	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.150	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.150	4.000	0.850	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.310	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.270	0.250	-0.270	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.350	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.350	0.000	-0.350	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.850	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.850	1.000	-0.850	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.050	0.000	-0.050	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.401	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.343	0.250	-0.343	-0.250
predicted_R	0.450	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.450	1.000	-0.450	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.150	0.000	-0.150	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.438	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.397	0.500	-0.397	-0.500
predicted_SO	0.550	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.550	0.000	-0.550	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.250	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.150	-
predicted_AVG	0.310	-
predicted_BB	0.350	-
predicted_H	0.850	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.401	-
predicted_R	0.450	-
predicted_RBI	0.140	-
predicted_SLG	0.438	-
predicted_SO	0.550	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.329	0.079
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.140	-0.010
predicted_AVG	0.310	0.000
predicted_BB	0.438	0.088
predicted_H	0.929	0.079
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.401	0.000
predicted_R	0.507	0.057
predicted_RBI	0.152	0.012
predicted_SLG	0.438	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.390	-0.161

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.15), rates preserved: AVG=0.295 HR/AB=0.003

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	3.000	3.000	1.000	0.3333	0.4444	0.4667	0.3333	0.0000	0.0000	0.2000	0.0667
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	10.000	4.000	0.000	3.000	5.000	4.000	3.000	0.3030	0.3784	0.4242	0.3030	0.0000	0.0909	0.1212	0.0909
season	0.20	20	-	63.000	17.000	5.000	1.000	6.000	9.000	7.000	11.000	0.2698	0.3429	0.3968	0.2698	0.0159	0.0952	0.1111	0.1746

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3710
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.1350
predicted_AVG	0.3100
predicted_BB	0.4850
predicted_H	0.9720
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0100
predicted_OBP	0.4010
predicted_R	0.5380
predicted_RBI	0.1590
predicted_SLG	0.4378
predicted_SO	0.3030

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2500	0.3710	0.3286	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.1500	3.1350	3.1402	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3100	0.3100	0.3100	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3500	0.4850	0.4377	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8500	0.9720	0.9293	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0100	0.0100	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4010	0.4010	0.4010	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4500	0.5380	0.5072	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1400	0.1590	0.1524	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4380	0.4378	0.4379	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5500	0.3030	0.3895	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.27

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF-RF
gameID	20260503_TEX@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	677649
playerID	677649
playerName	Ezequiel Duran
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	TEX
teamID	28

Alejandro Osuna (696030) · BATTER · LF · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 6

All-history rows before 20260505: 6

System season_avg: 0.1430

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1429

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.179	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.500	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.333	4.000	0.667	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.116	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_BB	0.714	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.667	0.000	-0.667	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_H	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.323	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.368	0.000	-0.368	0.000
predicted_R	0.357	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.193	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_SO	0.714	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.667	1.000	0.333	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.179	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.116	-
predicted_BB	0.714	-
predicted_H	0.220	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.323	-
predicted_R	0.357	-
predicted_RBI	0.140	-
predicted_SLG	0.193	-
predicted_SO	0.714	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.180	0.001
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.411	-0.089
predicted_AVG	0.116	0.000
predicted_BB	0.607	-0.107
predicted_H	0.255	0.035
predicted_HBP	0.181	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.323	-0.000
predicted_R	0.303	-0.054
predicted_RBI	0.167	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.193	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.722	0.008

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.102 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	12.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	0.0833	0.2667	0.1667	0.0833	0.0833	0.1667	0.3333
last_10	0.35	6	-	14.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	0.1429	0.3684	0.2143	0.1429	0.0714	0.2857	0.2857
season	0.20	6	-	14.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	0.1429	0.3684	0.2143	0.1429	0.0714	0.2857	0.2857

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1810
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.3630
predicted_AVG	0.1161
predicted_BB	0.5490
predicted_H	0.2740
predicted_HBP	0.1810
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.3226
predicted_R	0.2740
predicted_RBI	0.1810
predicted_SLG	0.1929
predicted_SO	0.7260

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1790	0.1810	0.1803	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.5000	2.3630	2.4110	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1160	0.1161	0.1161	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7140	0.5490	0.6068	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.2200	0.2740	0.2551	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1810	0.1810	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3230	0.3226	0.3227	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3570	0.2740	0.3030	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1400	0.1810	0.1667	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1930	0.1929	0.1929	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7140	0.7260	0.7218	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.143

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260502_TEX@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	696030
playerID	696030
playerName	Alejandro Osuna
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	TEX
teamID	28

Andrew McCutchen (457705) · BATTER · RF · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 9

All-history rows before 20260505: 9

System season_avg: 0.2080

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2083

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.667	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.667	3.000	0.333	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.152	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.208	0.333	-0.208	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.556	1.000	-0.556	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.111	0.000	-0.111	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.217	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.269	0.333	-0.269	-0.333
predicted_R	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.267	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.417	0.333	-0.417	-0.333
predicted_SO	1.000	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.222	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.667	-
predicted_AVG	0.152	-
predicted_BB	0.222	-
predicted_H	0.300	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.217	-
predicted_R	0.333	-
predicted_RBI	0.140	-
predicted_SLG	0.267	-
predicted_SO	1.000	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	-0.068
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.589	-0.078
predicted_AVG	0.152	0.000
predicted_BB	0.215	-0.007
predicted_H	0.356	0.056
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.055	0.005
predicted_OBP	0.217	0.000
predicted_R	0.230	-0.103
predicted_RBI	0.163	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.267	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.878	-0.122

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.134 HR/AB=0.021

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	12.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	0.0833	0.1538	0.0833	0.0833	0.0000	0.0000	0.0833	0.2500
last_10	0.35	9	-	24.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	9.000	0.2083	0.2692	0.4167	0.2083	0.0417	0.1250	0.0833	0.3750
season	0.20	9	-	24.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	2.000	9.000	0.2083	0.2692	0.4167	0.2083	0.0417	0.1250	0.0833	0.3750

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1170
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.5470
predicted_AVG	0.1520
predicted_BB	0.2120
predicted_H	0.3870
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0580
predicted_OBP	0.2173
predicted_R	0.1750
predicted_RBI	0.1750
predicted_SLG	0.2667
predicted_SO	0.8120

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2220	0.1170	0.1537	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.6670	2.5470	2.5890	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1520	0.1520	0.1520	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2220	0.2120	0.2155	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.3000	0.3870	0.3565	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0580	0.0552	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2170	0.2173	0.2172	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3330	0.1750	0.2303	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1400	0.1750	0.1628	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2670	0.2667	0.2668	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.8120	0.8778	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.208

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260503_TEX@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	457705
playerID	457705
playerName	Andrew McCutchen
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	TEX
teamID	28

Danny Jansen (643376) · BATTER · C · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 21

All-history rows before 20260505: 21

System season_avg: 0.2110

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2113

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.190	0.000	-0.190	0.000
predicted_3B	0.048	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_AB	3.381	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.381	2.000	-0.381	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.202	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.211	0.000	0.122	0.333
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	1.000	-0.333	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.048	0.000	-0.048	0.000
predicted_H	0.530	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.714	0.000	0.286	1.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.095	0.000	-0.095	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.328	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.291	0.333	0.042	0.000
predicted_R	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.286	0.000	-0.286	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.381	0.000	-0.381	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.471	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.380	0.000	-0.047	0.333
predicted_SO	1.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.190	1.000	-1.190	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.190	-
predicted_3B	0.048	-
predicted_AB	3.381	-
predicted_AVG	0.202	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.530	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.328	-
predicted_R	0.286	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.471	-
predicted_SO	1.190	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.132	-0.058
predicted_3B	0.108	0.060
predicted_AB	3.192	-0.188
predicted_AVG	0.202	0.000
predicted_BB	0.414	0.081
predicted_H	0.592	0.062
predicted_HBP	0.141	-
predicted_HR	0.143	0.013
predicted_OBP	0.328	-0.000
predicted_R	0.392	0.106
predicted_RBI	0.315	0.035
predicted_SLG	0.471	0.000
predicted_SO	1.201	0.011

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.38), rates preserved: AVG=0.175 HR/AB=0.042

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 21

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	3.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	6.000	0.2143	0.3889	0.5714	0.2143	0.0714	0.1429	0.2143	0.4286
last_10	0.35	10	-	33.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	3.000	12.000	0.1818	0.2703	0.3939	0.1818	0.0303	0.0606	0.0909	0.3636
season	0.20	21	-	71.000	15.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	6.000	7.000	25.000	0.2113	0.2911	0.3803	0.2113	0.0282	0.1127	0.0986	0.3521

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1000
predicted_3B	0.1410
predicted_AB	3.0910
predicted_AVG	0.2023
predicted_BB	0.4570
predicted_H	0.6250
predicted_HBP	0.1410
predicted_HR	0.1500
predicted_OBP	0.3278
predicted_R	0.4490
predicted_RBI	0.3340
predicted_SLG	0.4711
predicted_SO	1.2070

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1900	0.1000	0.1315	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0480	0.1410	0.1084	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3810	3.0910	3.1925	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2020	0.2023	0.2022	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.4570	0.4136	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5300	0.6250	0.5917	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1410	0.1410	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1500	0.1430	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3280	0.3278	0.3279	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2860	0.4490	0.3919	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.3340	0.3151	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4710	0.4711	0.4711	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1900	1.2070	1.2010	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	21
Season rows before report date	21
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	21
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.211

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260502_TEX@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	643376
playerID	643376
playerName	Danny Jansen
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	TEX
teamID	28

Corey Seager (608369) · BATTER · SS · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 33

All-history rows before 20260505: 33

System season_avg: 0.2130

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2131

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.697	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.697	4.000	-0.697	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.232	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.213	0.250	-0.213	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.545	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.545	0.000	0.455	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.770	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.788	1.000	-0.788	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.060	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.341	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.315	0.250	-0.065	0.000
predicted_R	0.576	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.576	0.000	-0.576	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.515	0.000	-0.515	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.376	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.410	0.250	-0.410	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.121	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.121	2.000	-1.121	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.182	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.697	-
predicted_AVG	0.232	-
predicted_BB	0.545	-
predicted_H	0.770	-
predicted_HR	0.060	-
predicted_OBP	0.341	-
predicted_R	0.576	-
predicted_RBI	0.210	-
predicted_SLG	0.376	-
predicted_SO	1.121	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.274	0.092
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.715	0.018
predicted_AVG	0.232	0.000
predicted_BB	0.591	0.046
predicted_H	0.832	0.062
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.067	0.007
predicted_OBP	0.341	-0.000
predicted_R	0.342	-0.234
predicted_RBI	0.228	0.018
predicted_SLG	0.376	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.141	0.020

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.71), rates preserved: AVG=0.224 HR/AB=0.018

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	6.000	0.2222	0.3636	0.3333	0.2222	0.0000	0.0000	0.2222	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	10.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	4.000	11.000	0.2564	0.3256	0.4103	0.2564	0.0256	0.1026	0.1026	0.2821
season	0.20	33	-	122.000	26.000	6.000	6.000	17.000	19.000	18.000	37.000	0.2131	0.3147	0.4098	0.2131	0.0492	0.1393	0.1475	0.3033

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3230
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7240
predicted_AVG	0.2324
predicted_BB	0.6160
predicted_H	0.8650
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0700
predicted_OBP	0.3405
predicted_R	0.2160
predicted_RBI	0.2370
predicted_SLG	0.3756
predicted_SO	1.1520

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1820	0.3230	0.2737	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6970	3.7240	3.7146	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2320	0.2324	0.2323	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5450	0.6160	0.5912	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7700	0.8650	0.8317	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0600	0.0700	0.0665	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3410	0.3405	0.3407	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5760	0.2160	0.3420	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2100	0.2370	0.2275	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3760	0.3756	0.3757	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1210	1.1520	1.1412	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.213

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260503_TEX@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	608369
playerID	608369
playerName	Corey Seager
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	TEX
teamID	28

Jake Burger (669394) · BATTER · 1B · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 33

All-history rows before 20260505: 33

System season_avg: 0.2120

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2121

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_2B	0.152	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.152	0.000	-0.152
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.000	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.000	4.000	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.156	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.212	0.000	-0.212
predicted_BB	0.152	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.152	0.000	-0.152
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.510	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.848	0.000	-0.848
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.152	0.000	-0.152
predicted_OBP	0.178	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.245	0.000	-0.245
predicted_R	0.364	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.364	0.000	-0.364
predicted_RBI	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.515	0.000	-0.515
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.313	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.364	0.000	-0.364
predicted_SO	1.273	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	1.273	2.000	0.727

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.152	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.000	-
predicted_AVG	0.156	-
predicted_BB	0.152	-
predicted_H	0.510	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.178	-
predicted_R	0.364	-
predicted_RBI	0.190	-
predicted_SLG	0.313	-
predicted_SO	1.273	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.153	0.001
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.954	-0.046
predicted_AVG	0.156	0.000
predicted_BB	0.119	-0.033
predicted_H	0.577	0.067
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.146	0.016
predicted_OBP	0.178	-0.000
predicted_R	0.359	-0.005
predicted_RBI	0.213	0.023
predicted_SLG	0.313	0.000
predicted_SO	1.292	0.020

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.00), rates preserved: AVG=0.144 HR/AB=0.036

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0.000	7.000	0.1500	0.1500	0.3500	0.1500	0.0500	0.0500	0.0000	0.3500
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	12.000	0.1316	0.1750	0.2368	0.1316	0.0263	0.0263	0.0526	0.3158
season	0.20	33	-	132.000	28.000	5.000	5.000	17.000	12.000	5.000	42.000	0.2121	0.2446	0.3636	0.2121	0.0379	0.1288	0.0379	0.3182

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1540
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9300
predicted_AVG	0.1560
predicted_BB	0.1020
predicted_H	0.6130
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.1540
predicted_OBP	0.1777
predicted_R	0.3570
predicted_RBI	0.2260
predicted_SLG	0.3131
predicted_SO	1.3030

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1520	0.1540	0.1533	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0000	3.9300	3.9545	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1560	0.1560	0.1560	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1520	0.1020	0.1195	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5100	0.6130	0.5770	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1540	0.1456	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1780	0.1777	0.1778	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3640	0.3570	0.3594	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1900	0.2260	0.2134	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3130	0.3131	0.3131	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2730	1.3030	1.2925	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.212

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260503_TEX@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	669394
playerID	669394
playerName	Jake Burger
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	TEX
teamID	28

Jacob deGrom (594798) · PITCHER · Starter · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 6

All-history rows before 20260505: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.167	1.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_IP	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.067	6.000	-1.067	-2.000
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_SO	6.667	5.000	-1.667	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	26.667	4.000	17.000	7.000	33.000	3.000	1.3500	0.9000	0.1500	0.6375	0.2625	1.2375	0.1125
last_10	0.35	6	31.333	7.000	23.000	7.000	40.000	4.000	2.0106	0.9574	0.2234	0.7340	0.2234	1.2766	0.1277
season	0.20	6	31.333	7.000	23.000	7.000	40.000	4.000	2.0106	0.9574	0.2234	0.7340	0.2234	1.2766	0.1277

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.2710
predicted_ER	1.0040
predicted_ERA	1.7133
predicted_H	3.6410
predicted_HR	0.6370
predicted_IP	5.2720
predicted_SO	6.6380
predicted_WHIP	0.9316

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	1.2710	1.1761	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	1.0040	1.0026	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.7133	1.7133	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	3.6410	4.1166	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.6370	0.4141	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.0000	5.2720	4.8268	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	6.6380	6.0647	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.9316	0.9316	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.0
H	5
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	5
HR	0
BF	18
Pitches	80

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	22
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	2.01
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	8
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	6.0
Pitching_Pitches	93
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	5
Pitching_Strikes	56
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260428_NYY@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	594798
playerID	594798
playerName	Jacob deGrom
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Cole Winn (668390) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 15

All-history rows before 20260505: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.533	1.000	3.467	3.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.787	0.200	0.213	0.800
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.067	1.000	-0.067	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.000	5.000	5.000	1.000	6.000	1.000	11.2500	1.5000	1.2500	1.2500	0.2500	1.5000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	8.667	8.000	8.000	4.000	11.000	3.000	8.3077	1.3846	0.9231	0.9231	0.4615	1.2692	0.3462
season	0.20	15	13.667	8.000	12.000	6.000	16.000	3.000	5.2683	1.3171	0.5854	0.8780	0.4390	1.1707	0.2195

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3060
predicted_ER	0.8480
predicted_ERA	9.0239
predicted_H	0.8970
predicted_HR	0.2350
predicted_IP	0.8460
predicted_SO	1.1440
predicted_WHIP	1.4230

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	0.3060	0.8989	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	4.0000	0.8480	1.9512	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	9.0239	9.0239	form_only
predicted_H	3.0000	0.8970	1.6330	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.2350	0.5028	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.8460	0.8999	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.1440	1.0936	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4230	1.4230	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	3
R	4
ER	4
BB	2
SO	1
HR	1
BF	8
Pitches	35

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	1
Pitching_ERA	5.27
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	25
Pitching_R	1
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	17
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260501_TEX@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	668390
playerID	668390
playerName	Cole Winn
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Jacob Latz (656641) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 14

All-history rows before 20260505: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.179	1.000	-0.179	0.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.071	1.000	-1.071	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	6.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	0.1667	0.0000	0.1667	0.0000	0.8333	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.667	2.000	5.000	1.000	9.000	1.000	1.6875	0.5625	0.1875	0.4688	0.0938	0.8438	0.0938
season	0.20	14	17.667	2.000	5.000	3.000	15.000	1.000	1.0189	0.4528	0.1132	0.2830	0.1698	0.8491	0.0566

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.0780
predicted_ER	0.1030
predicted_ERA	0.7944
predicted_H	0.3450
predicted_HR	0.0510
predicted_IP	1.1660
predicted_SO	0.9790
predicted_WHIP	0.3624

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0780	0.0507	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1030	0.0669	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.7944	0.7944	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.3450	0.2242	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0510	0.0331	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.1660	1.1079	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9790	0.6363	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.3624	0.3624	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	8

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.02
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	15
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	9
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260501_TEX@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	656641
playerID	656641
playerName	Jacob Latz
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Jakob Junis (596001) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 14

All-history rows before 20260505: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.214	0.000	-0.214
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.079	1.000	-0.079
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.429	0.000	-0.429

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.0000	0.4000	0.0000	0.4000	0.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	10.333	3.000	6.000	4.000	2.000	2.6129	0.9677	0.2903	0.5806	0.3871	0.1935
season	0.20	14	15.333	3.000	7.000	4.000	6.000	1.7609	0.7174	0.1956	0.4565	0.2609	0.3913

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1930
predicted_ER	0.1450
predicted_ERA	1.2667
predicted_H	0.4890
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0310
predicted_SO	0.1500
predicted_WHIP	0.6622

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1930	0.1255	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1450	0.0943	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.2667	1.2667	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.4890	0.6679	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0310	1.0202	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.1500	0.0975	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.6622	0.6622	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	10

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.76
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	9
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260501_TEX@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	596001
playerID	596001
playerName	Jakob Junis
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Tyler Alexander (641302) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TEX

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 15

All-history rows before 20260505: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.200	2.000	-0.200	-2.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.920	0.100	0.080	0.900
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.800	0.000	0.200	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.333	2.000	7.000	0.000	3.000	3.3750	1.3125	0.3750	1.3125	0.0000	0.5625
last_10	0.35	10	10.667	2.000	14.000	1.000	8.000	1.6875	1.4062	0.1875	1.3125	0.0938	0.7500
season	0.20	15	15.667	3.000	18.000	3.000	12.000	1.7234	1.3404	0.1915	1.1489	0.1915	0.7660

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.0760
predicted_ER	0.2900
predicted_ERA	2.4541
predicted_H	1.3590
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0620
predicted_SO	0.7100
predicted_WHIP	1.3509

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0760	0.0494	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2900	0.1885	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.4541	2.4541	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.3590	0.8833	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0620	1.0403	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.7100	0.8115	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3509	1.3509	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	1.72
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	3
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	1
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	6
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	5
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_TEX@DET
game_type	full
mlbID	641302
playerID	641302
playerName	Tyler Alexander
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TEX
teamID	28

Home Team: NYY

Austin Wells (669224) · BATTER · C · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 26

All-history rows before 20260505: 26

System season_avg: 0.2000

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2000

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.038	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.077	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.077	2.000	0.923	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.223	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.200	0.000	0.300	0.500
predicted_BB	0.654	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.654	2.000	-0.654	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.550	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.615	0.000	1.385	2.000
predicted_HR	0.140	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.115	0.000	-0.115	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.347	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.337	0.500	0.163	0.000
predicted_R	0.385	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.385	2.000	0.615	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.210	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.192	0.000	0.808	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.393	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.325	0.000	0.175	0.500
predicted_SO	0.731	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.731	1.000	-0.731	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.038	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.077	-
predicted_AVG	0.223	-
predicted_BB	0.654	-
predicted_H	0.550	-
predicted_HR	0.140	-
predicted_OBP	0.347	-
predicted_R	0.385	-
predicted_RBI	0.210	-
predicted_SLG	0.393	-
predicted_SO	0.731	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.018	-0.019
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.199	0.122
predicted_AVG	0.223	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.650	-0.004
predicted_H	0.664	0.114
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.167	0.027
predicted_OBP	0.347	0.000
predicted_R	0.608	0.223
predicted_RBI	0.249	0.039
predicted_SLG	0.393	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.800	0.069

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.20), rates preserved: AVG=0.208 HR/AB=0.052

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	3.000	5.000	0.2353	0.3500	0.4118	0.2353	0.0588	0.0588	0.1765	0.2941
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	7.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	6.000	7.000	7.000	0.2188	0.3500	0.4062	0.2188	0.0625	0.1250	0.2188	0.2188
season	0.20	26	-	80.000	16.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	10.000	17.000	19.000	0.2000	0.3367	0.3250	0.2000	0.0375	0.0625	0.2125	0.2375

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0080
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.2650
predicted_AVG	0.2225
predicted_BB	0.6480
predicted_H	0.7260
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1820
predicted_OBP	0.3473
predicted_R	0.7280
predicted_RBI	0.2700
predicted_SLG	0.3925
predicted_SO	0.8370

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0380	0.0080	0.0185	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0770	3.2650	3.1992	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2230	0.2225	0.2227	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6540	0.6480	0.6501	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5500	0.7260	0.6644	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1400	0.1820	0.1673	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3470	0.3473	0.3472	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3850	0.7280	0.6079	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2100	0.2700	0.2490	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3930	0.3925	0.3927	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7310	0.8370	0.7999	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.2

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260504_BAL@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	669224
playerID	669224
playerName	Austin Wells
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	NYY
teamID	19

Ryan McMahon (641857) · BATTER · 3B · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 23

All-history rows before 20260505: 23

System season_avg: 0.1970

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1974

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.087	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.087	0.000	-0.087	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.304	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.304	4.000	0.696	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.257	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.197	0.250	0.053	0.000
predicted_BB	0.304	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.304	0.000	-0.304	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.660	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.652	1.000	0.348	0.000
predicted_HR	0.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.277	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.265	0.250	-0.015	0.000
predicted_R	0.261	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.261	0.000	-0.261	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.304	1.000	-0.304	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.366	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.263	0.250	-0.013	0.000
predicted_SO	1.130	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.130	1.000	-0.130	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.087	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.304	-
predicted_AVG	0.257	-
predicted_BB	0.304	-
predicted_H	0.660	-
predicted_HR	0.030	-
predicted_OBP	0.277	-
predicted_R	0.261	-
predicted_RBI	0.290	-
predicted_SLG	0.366	-
predicted_SO	1.130	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.203	0.116
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.503	0.200
predicted_AVG	0.257	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.171	-0.133
predicted_H	0.833	0.173
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.038	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.277	-0.000
predicted_R	0.333	0.072
predicted_RBI	0.370	0.080
predicted_SLG	0.366	-0.000
predicted_SO	1.087	-0.043

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.238 HR/AB=0.011

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 23

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	5.000	2.000	0.000	2.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	0.2778	0.2778	0.3889	0.2778	0.0000	0.1111	0.0000	0.2778
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	10.000	2.000	1.000	5.000	4.000	1.000	11.000	0.2632	0.2821	0.3947	0.2632	0.0263	0.1316	0.0263	0.2895
season	0.20	23	-	76.000	15.000	2.000	1.000	7.000	6.000	7.000	26.000	0.1974	0.2651	0.2632	0.1974	0.0132	0.0921	0.0921	0.3421

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2660
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6110
predicted_AVG	0.2566
predicted_BB	0.1000
predicted_H	0.9260
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0430
predicted_OBP	0.2768
predicted_R	0.3710
predicted_RBI	0.4130
predicted_SLG	0.3658
predicted_SO	1.0640

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0870	0.2660	0.2034	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.3040	3.6110	3.5035	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2570	0.2566	0.2567	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3040	0.1000	0.1714	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6600	0.9260	0.8329	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0300	0.0430	0.0384	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2770	0.2768	0.2769	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2610	0.3710	0.3325	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2900	0.4130	0.3700	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3660	0.3658	0.3659	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1300	1.0640	1.0871	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	23
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.197

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260504_BAL@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	641857
playerID	641857
playerName	Ryan McMahon
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	NYY
teamID	19

Jazz Chisholm Jr. (665862) · BATTER · 2B · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 32

All-history rows before 20260505: 32

System season_avg: 0.2170

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2167

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.156	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.156	0.000	0.844	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.750	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.750	4.000	0.250	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.244	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.217	0.250	0.033	0.000
predicted_BB	0.469	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.469	1.000	-0.469	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_H	0.790	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.812	1.000	0.188	0.000
predicted_HR	0.080	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.094	0.000	-0.094	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.352	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.307	0.400	-0.057	-0.150
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	2.000	0.500	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.480	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.375	0.000	-0.375	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.312	2.000	-0.312	-2.000
predicted_SLG	0.324	0.500	0.500	Hitting_SLG	0.333	0.250	0.167	0.250
predicted_SO	1.125	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.125	1.000	-0.125	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.156	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.750	-
predicted_AVG	0.244	-
predicted_BB	0.469	-
predicted_H	0.790	-
predicted_HR	0.080	-
predicted_OBP	0.352	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.480	-
predicted_SLG	0.324	-
predicted_SO	1.125	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.074	-0.082
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.636	-0.114
predicted_AVG	0.244	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.600	0.131
predicted_H	0.843	0.053
predicted_HBP	0.006	-
predicted_HR	0.084	0.004
predicted_OBP	0.352	0.000
predicted_R	0.598	0.098
predicted_RBI	0.513	0.033
predicted_SLG	0.324	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.894	-0.231

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.75), rates preserved: AVG=0.225 HR/AB=0.022

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	0.2353	0.3636	0.2353	0.2353	0.0000	0.1177	0.2353	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	10.000	0.000	2.000	8.000	8.000	6.000	8.000	0.2703	0.3636	0.4324	0.2703	0.0541	0.2162	0.1622	0.2162
season	0.20	32	-	120.000	26.000	5.000	3.000	12.000	16.000	15.000	36.000	0.2167	0.3066	0.3333	0.2167	0.0250	0.1000	0.1250	0.3000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0300
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5750
predicted_AVG	0.2438
predicted_BB	0.6710
predicted_H	0.8720
predicted_HBP	0.0060
predicted_HR	0.0860
predicted_OBP	0.3522
predicted_R	0.6500
predicted_RBI	0.5310
predicted_SLG	0.3239
predicted_SO	0.7690

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1560	0.0300	0.0741	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7500	3.5750	3.6362	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2440	0.2438	0.2439	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4690	0.6710	0.6003	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7900	0.8720	0.8433	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0060	0.0060	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0800	0.0860	0.0839	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3520	0.3522	0.3521	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.6500	0.5975	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4800	0.5310	0.5131	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3240	0.3239	0.3239	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1250	0.7690	0.8936	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.217

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	2
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260504_BAL@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	665862
playerID	665862
playerName	Jazz Chisholm Jr.
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	NYY
teamID	19

Aaron Judge (592450) · BATTER · RF · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 35

All-history rows before 20260505: 35

System season_avg: 0.2720

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2720

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.143	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.571	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.571	4.000	-0.571	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.328	1.000	1.000	Hitting_AVG	0.272	0.500	0.728	0.500
predicted_BB	0.771	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.771	1.000	0.229	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.057	0.000	-0.057	0.000
predicted_H	1.050	3.000	3.000	Hitting_H	0.971	2.000	2.029	1.000
predicted_HR	0.400	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.400	1.000	0.600	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.489	1.000	1.000	Hitting_OBP	0.409	0.600	0.591	0.400
predicted_R	0.914	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.914	2.000	0.086	-1.000
predicted_RBI	1.030	4.000	4.000	Hitting_RBI	0.771	4.000	3.229	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.143	0.000	-0.143	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.728	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SLG	0.648	1.250	1.352	0.750
predicted_SO	1.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.200	0.000	-1.200	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.143	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.571	-
predicted_AVG	0.328	-
predicted_BB	0.771	-
predicted_H	1.050	-
predicted_HR	0.400	-
predicted_OBP	0.489	-
predicted_R	0.914	-
predicted_RBI	1.030	-
predicted_SLG	0.728	-
predicted_SO	1.200	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.116	-0.027
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.540	-0.031
predicted_AVG	0.328	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.972	0.201
predicted_H	1.119	0.069
predicted_HBP	0.048	-
predicted_HR	0.424	0.024
predicted_OBP	0.489	0.000
predicted_R	1.097	0.183
predicted_RBI	1.096	0.066
predicted_SLG	0.728	0.000
predicted_SO	1.210	0.010

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.57), rates preserved: AVG=0.313 HR/AB=0.119

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=10.0, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	3.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	4.000	3.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 35

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	6.000	0.000	2.000	7.000	7.000	6.000	7.000	0.3333	0.5000	0.6667	0.3333	0.1111	0.3889	0.3333	0.3889
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	12.000	2.000	5.000	10.000	11.000	11.000	10.000	0.3529	0.5217	0.8529	0.3529	0.1471	0.2941	0.3235	0.2941
season	0.20	35	-	125.000	34.000	5.000	14.000	27.000	32.000	27.000	42.000	0.2720	0.4091	0.6480	0.2720	0.1120	0.2160	0.2160	0.3360

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1010
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.5240
predicted_AVG	0.3279
predicted_BB	1.0800
predicted_H	1.1560
predicted_HBP	0.0480
predicted_HR	0.4370
predicted_OBP	0.4894
predicted_R	1.1960
predicted_RBI	1.1320
predicted_SLG	0.7281
predicted_SO	1.2160

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1430	0.1010	0.1157	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5710	3.5240	3.5404	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3280	0.3279	0.3279	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7710	1.0800	0.9719	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.0500	1.1560	1.1189	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0480	0.0480	form_only
predicted_HR	0.4000	0.4370	0.4241	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4890	0.4894	0.4893	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.9140	1.1960	1.0973	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	1.0300	1.1320	1.0963	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.7280	0.7281	0.7281	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2000	1.2160	1.2104	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	35
Season rows before report date	35
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	35
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	3
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	4
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.272

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	1
Hitting_IBB	1
Hitting_R	2
Hitting_RBI	4
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	5
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260504_BAL@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	592450
playerID	592450
playerName	Aaron Judge
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	NYY
teamID	19

Paul Goldschmidt (502671) · BATTER · 1B · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 10

All-history rows before 20260505: 10

System season_avg: 0.1710

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1714

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	4.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.162	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.171	0.250	-0.171	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.470	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.600	1.000	-0.600	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.254	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.275	0.250	-0.275	-0.250
predicted_R	0.600	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.600	0.000	-0.600	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.250	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.400	0.000	-0.400	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.317	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.371	0.250	-0.371	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.900	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.900	1.000	-0.900	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.400	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.162	-
predicted_BB	0.400	-
predicted_H	0.470	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.254	-
predicted_R	0.600	-
predicted_RBI	0.250	-
predicted_SLG	0.317	-
predicted_SO	0.900	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.401	0.001
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.646	0.146
predicted_AVG	0.162	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.401	0.001
predicted_H	0.556	0.087
predicted_HBP	0.059	-
predicted_HR	0.056	0.006
predicted_OBP	0.254	-0.000
predicted_R	0.602	0.002
predicted_RBI	0.294	0.044
predicted_SLG	0.317	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.875	-0.025

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.65), rates preserved: AVG=0.153 HR/AB=0.015

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, BvP AVG=0.125)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 10

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	3.000	2.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	0.1500	0.2273	0.2500	0.1500	0.0000	0.0500	0.1000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	6.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	4.000	9.000	0.1714	0.2750	0.3714	0.1714	0.0286	0.1143	0.1143	0.2571
season	0.20	10	-	35.000	6.000	4.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	4.000	9.000	0.1714	0.2750	0.3714	0.1714	0.0286	0.1143	0.1143	0.2571

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.4020
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.7250
predicted_AVG	0.1618
predicted_BB	0.4020
predicted_H	0.6030
predicted_HBP	0.0590
predicted_HR	0.0590
predicted_OBP	0.2535
predicted_R	0.6030
predicted_RBI	0.3180
predicted_SLG	0.3168
predicted_SO	0.8620

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.4000	0.4020	0.4013	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.7250	3.6463	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1620	0.1618	0.1619	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4000	0.4020	0.4013	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.4700	0.6030	0.5565	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0590	0.0590	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0590	0.0558	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2540	0.2535	0.2537	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6000	0.6030	0.6019	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2500	0.3180	0.2942	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3170	0.3168	0.3169	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9000	0.8620	0.8753	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	10
Season rows before report date	10
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	10
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.171

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260504_BAL@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	502671
playerID	502671
playerName	Paul Goldschmidt
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	NYY
teamID	19

Cody Bellinger (641355) · BATTER · LF · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 33

All-history rows before 20260505: 33

System season_avg: 0.2700

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2705

Diff (system - data): -0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.242	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.242	0.000	-0.242	0.000
predicted_3B	0.061	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.061	1.000	-0.061	-1.000
predicted_AB	3.697	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.697	4.000	0.303	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.355	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.270	0.250	-0.270	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.606	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.606	0.000	-0.606	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.030	0.000	-0.030	0.000
predicted_H	1.210	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.152	0.000	-0.152	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.413	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.366	0.200	-0.366	-0.200
predicted_R	0.667	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_RBI	1.030	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.636	3.000	-0.636	-3.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.121	0.000	-0.121	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.786	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.492	0.750	-0.492	-0.750
predicted_SO	0.606	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.606	0.000	-0.606	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.242	-
predicted_3B	0.061	-
predicted_AB	3.697	-
predicted_AVG	0.355	-
predicted_BB	0.606	-
predicted_H	1.210	-
predicted_HR	0.240	-
predicted_OBP	0.413	-
predicted_R	0.667	-
predicted_RBI	1.030	-
predicted_SLG	0.786	-
predicted_SO	0.606	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.460	0.218
predicted_3B	0.110	0.049
predicted_AB	3.832	0.135
predicted_AVG	0.355	0.000
predicted_BB	0.523	-0.083
predicted_H	1.325	0.115
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.265	0.025
predicted_OBP	0.413	-0.000
predicted_R	0.690	0.023
predicted_RBI	1.133	0.103
predicted_SLG	0.786	0.000
predicted_SO	0.626	0.020

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.83), rates preserved: AVG=0.346 HR/AB=0.069

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=22.0, BvP AVG=0.273)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	9.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	8.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	0.4500	0.4783	1.0500	0.4500	0.1000	0.4000	0.1000	0.1500
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	11.000	5.000	1.000	2.000	10.000	6.000	5.000	7.000	0.2821	0.3556	0.6154	0.2821	0.0513	0.2564	0.1282	0.1795
season	0.20	33	-	122.000	33.000	8.000	2.000	5.000	21.000	22.000	20.000	20.000	0.2705	0.3655	0.4918	0.2705	0.0410	0.1721	0.1639	0.1639

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.5780
predicted_3B	0.1360
predicted_AB	3.9040
predicted_AVG	0.3553
predicted_BB	0.4790
predicted_H	1.3870
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.2780
predicted_OBP	0.4128
predicted_R	0.7020
predicted_RBI	1.1880
predicted_SLG	0.7863
predicted_SO	0.6370

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2420	0.5780	0.4604	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0610	0.1360	0.1098	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6970	3.9040	3.8316	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3550	0.3553	0.3552	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.6060	0.4790	0.5234	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.2100	1.3870	1.3251	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2400	0.2780	0.2647	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4130	0.4128	0.4129	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6670	0.7020	0.6897	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	1.0300	1.1880	1.1327	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.7860	0.7863	0.7862	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6060	0.6370	0.6261	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.27

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	1
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	3
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	1
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	3
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260504_BAL@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	641355
playerID	641355
playerName	Cody Bellinger
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	NYY
teamID	19

Jasson Domínguez (691176) · BATTER · DH · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 6

All-history rows before 20260505: 6

System season_avg: 0.2730

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2727

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.667	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.667	4.000	0.333	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.275	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.273	0.250	-0.023	0.000
predicted_BB	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.167	1.000	-0.167	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.920	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.000	1.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.341	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.333	0.400	-0.083	-0.150
predicted_R	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.500	1.000	0.500	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.670	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.667	1.000	-0.667	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.525	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.500	0.250	-0.250	0.000
predicted_SO	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.333	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.667	-
predicted_AVG	0.275	-
predicted_BB	0.167	-
predicted_H	0.920	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.341	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.670	-
predicted_SLG	0.525	-
predicted_SO	0.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.353	0.020
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.647	-0.019
predicted_AVG	0.275	0.000
predicted_BB	0.177	0.010
predicted_H	0.972	0.052
predicted_HBP	0.182	-
predicted_HR	0.178	0.008
predicted_OBP	0.341	-0.000
predicted_R	0.530	0.030
predicted_RBI	0.707	0.037
predicted_SLG	0.525	0.000
predicted_SO	0.471	-0.029

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.67), rates preserved: AVG=0.265 HR/AB=0.048

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, BvP AVG=0.000)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	2.000	0.2778	0.3500	0.5556	0.2778	0.0556	0.2222	0.0556	0.1111
last_10	0.35	6	-	22.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	0.2727	0.3333	0.5000	0.2727	0.0454	0.1818	0.0454	0.1364
season	0.20	6	-	22.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	0.2727	0.3333	0.5000	0.2727	0.0454	0.1818	0.0454	0.1364

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.3640
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.6370
predicted_AVG	0.2750
predicted_BB	0.1820
predicted_H	1.0000
predicted_HBP	0.1820
predicted_HR	0.1820
predicted_OBP	0.3408
predicted_R	0.5460
predicted_RBI	0.7270
predicted_SLG	0.5250
predicted_SO	0.4550

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3330	0.3640	0.3532	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6670	3.6370	3.6475	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2750	0.2750	0.2750	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1670	0.1820	0.1768	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9200	1.0000	0.9720	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1820	0.1820	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.1820	0.1778	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3410	0.3408	0.3409	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.5460	0.5299	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6700	0.7270	0.7070	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5250	0.5250	0.5250	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5000	0.4550	0.4708	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.273

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260504_BAL@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	691176
playerID	691176
playerName	Jasson Domínguez
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	NYY
teamID	19

José Caballero (676609) · BATTER · SS · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 34

All-history rows before 20260505: 34

System season_avg: 0.2610

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2605

Diff (system - data): 0.0005

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.176	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.176	1.000	-0.176	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.500	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.500	3.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.258	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.261	0.333	0.073	0.000
predicted_BB	0.176	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.176	1.000	0.824	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_H	0.680	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.912	1.000	0.088	0.000
predicted_HR	0.170	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.330	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.312	0.500	0.188	0.000
predicted_R	0.471	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.471	1.000	0.529	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.330	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.382	1.000	-0.382	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.382	0.000	-0.382	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.494	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.412	0.667	-0.078	-0.333
predicted_SO	0.794	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.794	0.000	1.206	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.176	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.258	-
predicted_BB	0.176	-
predicted_H	0.680	-
predicted_HR	0.170	-
predicted_OBP	0.330	-
predicted_R	0.471	-
predicted_RBI	0.330	-
predicted_SLG	0.494	-
predicted_SO	0.794	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.166	-0.010
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.471	-0.029
predicted_AVG	0.258	0.000
predicted_BB	0.248	0.072
predicted_H	0.817	0.137
predicted_HBP	0.087	-
predicted_HR	0.201	0.031
predicted_OBP	0.330	0.000
predicted_R	0.598	0.127
predicted_RBI	0.396	0.066
predicted_SLG	0.494	0.000
predicted_SO	0.648	-0.146

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.233 HR/AB=0.057

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	4.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	2.000	3.000	0.2353	0.3158	0.4706	0.2353	0.0588	0.1177	0.1177	0.1765
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	10.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	6.000	2.000	4.000	0.2857	0.3590	0.5714	0.2857	0.0857	0.1429	0.0571	0.1143
season	0.20	34	-	119.000	31.000	6.000	4.000	13.000	16.000	6.000	27.000	0.2605	0.3125	0.4118	0.2605	0.0336	0.1092	0.0504	0.2269

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1610
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.4550
predicted_AVG	0.2580
predicted_BB	0.2870
predicted_H	0.8910
predicted_HBP	0.0870
predicted_HR	0.2180
predicted_OBP	0.3303
predicted_R	0.6660
predicted_RBI	0.4310
predicted_SLG	0.4941
predicted_SO	0.5690

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1760	0.1610	0.1663	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5000	3.4550	3.4707	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2580	0.2580	0.2580	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1760	0.2870	0.2481	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6800	0.8910	0.8172	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0870	0.0870	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1700	0.2180	0.2012	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3300	0.3303	0.3302	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4710	0.6660	0.5978	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3300	0.4310	0.3957	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4940	0.4941	0.4941	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7940	0.5690	0.6477	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.261

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.333
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260504_BAL@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	676609
playerID	676609
playerName	José Caballero
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	NYY
teamID	19

Trent Grisham (663757) · BATTER · CF · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 28

All-history rows before 20260505: 28

System season_avg: 0.1700

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1700

Diff (system - data): 0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.179	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.179	2.000	-0.179	-2.000
predicted_3B	0.036	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_AB	3.571	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.571	3.000	-0.571	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.221	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.170	0.667	-0.170	-0.667
predicted_BB	0.786	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.786	2.000	0.214	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_H	0.730	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.607	2.000	-0.607	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.107	0.000	-0.107	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.334	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.315	0.800	-0.065	-0.550
predicted_R	0.679	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.679	3.000	-0.679	-3.000
predicted_RBI	0.600	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.536	1.000	-0.536	-1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.036	0.000	-0.036	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.515	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.330	1.333	-0.330	-1.333
predicted_SO	0.714	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.714	0.000	1.286	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.179	-
predicted_3B	0.036	-
predicted_AB	3.571	-
predicted_AVG	0.221	-
predicted_BB	0.786	-
predicted_H	0.730	-
predicted_HR	0.160	-
predicted_OBP	0.334	-
predicted_R	0.679	-
predicted_RBI	0.600	-
predicted_SLG	0.515	-
predicted_SO	0.714	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.406	0.227
predicted_3B	0.017	-0.019
predicted_AB	3.644	0.073
predicted_AVG	0.221	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.737	-0.049
predicted_H	0.783	0.053
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.174	0.014
predicted_OBP	0.334	-0.000
predicted_R	0.902	0.223
predicted_RBI	0.648	0.048
predicted_SLG	0.515	0.000
predicted_SO	0.576	-0.138

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.64), rates preserved: AVG=0.215 HR/AB=0.048

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, BvP AVG=0.143)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 28

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	5.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	4.000	6.000	3.000	2.000	0.2632	0.3478	0.6316	0.2632	0.0526	0.2105	0.1579	0.1053
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	7.000	4.000	0.000	2.000	6.000	10.000	8.000	5.000	0.1944	0.3261	0.4722	0.1944	0.0556	0.1667	0.2222	0.1389
season	0.20	28	-	100.000	17.000	5.000	1.000	3.000	15.000	19.000	22.000	20.000	0.1700	0.3145	0.3300	0.1700	0.0300	0.1500	0.2200	0.2000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.5290
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.6840
predicted_AVG	0.2205
predicted_BB	0.7100
predicted_H	0.8120
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1810
predicted_OBP	0.3335
predicted_R	1.0220
predicted_RBI	0.6740
predicted_SLG	0.5155
predicted_SO	0.5010

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1790	0.5290	0.4065	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0360	0.0070	0.0171	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.5710	3.6840	3.6444	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2210	0.2205	0.2207	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.7860	0.7100	0.7366	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7300	0.8120	0.7833	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1600	0.1810	0.1736	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3340	0.3335	0.3337	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6790	1.0220	0.9020	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.6000	0.6740	0.6481	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5150	0.5155	0.5153	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7140	0.5010	0.5756	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	28
Season rows before report date	28
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	28
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.17

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	2
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.667
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	3
Hitting_RBI	1
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260504_BAL@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	663757
playerID	663757
playerName	Trent Grisham
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	NYY
teamID	19

Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz (695684) · PITCHER · Starter · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 1

All-history rows before 20260505: 1

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.000	2.000	-1.000	-1.000
predicted_IP	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	4.000	4.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SO	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_SO	3.000	3.000	2.000	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 1

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	1	4.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	4.5000	2.0000	0.5000	1.0000	1.0000	0.7500
last_10	0.35	1	4.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	4.5000	2.0000	0.5000	1.0000	1.0000	0.7500
season	0.20	1	4.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	4.5000	2.0000	0.5000	1.0000	1.0000	0.7500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	4.0000
predicted_ER	2.0000
predicted_ERA	4.5000
predicted_H	4.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	4.0000
predicted_SO	3.0000
predicted_WHIP	2.0000

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	4.0000	2.9500	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	2.0000	1.6500	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.5000	4.5000	form_only
predicted_H	5.0000	4.0000	4.3500	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0000	0.3500	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.0000	4.0000	4.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	5.0000	3.0000	3.7000	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	2.0000	2.0000	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	1
Season rows before report date	1
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	1
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.0
H	5
R	1
ER	1
BB	1
SO	5
HR	1
BF	24
Pitches	92

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	4
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	20
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	4.50
Pitching_Flyouts	3
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	1
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	4.0
Pitching_Pitches	80
Pitching_R	2
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	42
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260429_NYY@TEX
game_type	full
mlbID	695684
playerID	695684
playerName	Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

David Bednar (670280) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 14

All-history rows before 20260505: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.357	0.000	-0.357	0.000
predicted_IP	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.943	1.000	2.057	2.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.143	2.000	0.857	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 3.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	1.000	6.000	0.000	4.000	1.8000	1.2000	0.2000	1.2000	0.0000	0.8000
last_10	0.35	10	9.333	3.000	10.000	2.000	12.000	2.8929	1.2857	0.3214	1.0714	0.2143	1.2857
season	0.20	14	13.667	5.000	17.000	5.000	16.000	3.2927	1.6098	0.3659	1.2439	0.3659	1.1707

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1440
predicted_ER	0.2680
predicted_ERA	2.4811
predicted_H	1.1310
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	0.9720
predicted_SO	1.0150
predicted_WHIP	1.3120

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1440	0.0936	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2680	0.1742	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.4811	2.4811	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.1310	0.7352	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	3.0000	0.9720	1.6818	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.0150	1.3598	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3120	1.3120	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	3.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	4
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.29
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	13
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_BAL@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	670280
playerID	670280
playerName	David Bednar
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

Brent Headrick (687396) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 18

All-history rows before 20260505: 18

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.789	1.200	0.211	-0.200
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.944	1.000	0.056	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 18

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.667	1.000	5.000	1.000	4.000	1.5882	1.0588	0.1765	0.8823	0.1765	0.7059
last_10	0.35	10	10.000	3.000	11.000	2.000	6.000	2.7000	1.3000	0.3000	1.1000	0.2000	0.6000
season	0.20	18	17.000	3.000	17.000	6.000	17.000	1.5882	1.3529	0.1765	1.0000	0.3529	1.0000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.2310
predicted_ER	0.2300
predicted_ERA	1.9773
predicted_H	1.0300
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	1.0490
predicted_SO	0.7630
predicted_WHIP	1.2020

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.2310	0.1502	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.2300	0.1495	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.9773	1.9773	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	1.0300	0.6695	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0490	1.0318	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.7630	0.8459	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2020	1.2020	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	18
Season rows before report date	18
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	18
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	1.59
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	3
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	1
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.2
Pitching_Pitches	16
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	11
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	3
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_BAL@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	687396
playerID	687396
playerName	Brent Headrick
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

Fernando Cruz (518585) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team NYY

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 16

All-history rows before 20260505: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.250	0.000	-0.250
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.500	1.000	0.500
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.188	0.000	-1.188

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.333	0.000	3.000	2.000	6.000	0.000	0.0000	1.1538	0.0000	0.6923	0.4615	1.3846	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.000	3.000	10.000	5.000	12.000	2.000	3.3750	1.8750	0.3750	1.2500	0.6250	1.5000	0.2500
season	0.20	16	12.667	4.000	10.000	9.000	19.000	2.000	2.8421	1.5000	0.3158	0.7895	0.7105	1.5000	0.1579

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.4710
predicted_ER	0.1610
predicted_ERA	1.7497
predicted_H	0.7510
predicted_HR	0.0990
predicted_IP	0.8280
predicted_SO	1.2000
predicted_WHIP	1.4755

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.4710	0.3061	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1610	0.1047	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.7497	1.7497	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.7510	0.4882	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0990	0.0644	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.8280	0.8882	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.2000	0.7800	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4755	1.4755	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	8

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.84
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	2
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	17
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	W
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_BAL@NYY
game_type	full
mlbID	518585
playerID	518585
playerName	Fernando Cruz
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	NYY
teamID	19

20260505_TOR@TB

Prediction Method: enhanced_ml

Team Recent Window (Home): 10 games

Team Recent Window (Away): 10 games

Team Recent Period: Latest 10 games from dataset

Enhanced Prediction Target: {"away_runs": 1, "home_runs": 4, "confidence": 0.5983951765586074, "home_win_probability": 0.5983951765586074, "away_win_probability": 0.4016048234413926, "predicted_score_text": "TOR 1 - 4 TB", "confidence_note": "Calibrated to final winner probability with starter-quality caps.", "pre_simulation_target": {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 3, "predicted_score_text": "TOR 2 - 3 TB", "confidence": 0.5983951765586074, "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"}, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score", "final_prediction_synced": true, "simulation_reconciliation": {"pre_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 2, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "TOR 2 - 3 TB", "winner": "TB"}, "final_simulation_score": {"away_runs": 1, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TOR 1 - 4 TB", "winner": "TB"}, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "away_run_delta": -1, "home_run_delta": 1, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "scoring_simulation.final_score"}}

Away Team: TOR

Jesús Sánchez (660821) · BATTER · RF · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 26

All-history rows before 20260505: 26

System season_avg: 0.2600

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2604

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.154	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.154	0.000	-0.154	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.692	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.692	4.000	0.308	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.252	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.260	0.250	-0.010	0.000
predicted_BB	0.192	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.192	0.000	-0.192	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.962	1.000	0.038	0.000
predicted_HR	0.090	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.154	0.000	0.846	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.263	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.295	0.250	-0.045	0.000
predicted_R	0.346	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.346	0.000	0.654	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.538	0.000	0.462	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.038	0.000	-0.038	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.353	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.427	0.250	0.573	0.750
predicted_SO	0.692	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.692	0.000	0.308	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.154	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.692	-
predicted_AVG	0.252	-
predicted_BB	0.192	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.090	-
predicted_OBP	0.263	-
predicted_R	0.346	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.353	-
predicted_SO	0.692	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.101	-0.053
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.878	0.186
predicted_AVG	0.252	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.119	-0.073
predicted_H	0.945	0.105
predicted_HBP	0.008	-
predicted_HR	0.104	0.014
predicted_OBP	0.263	-0.000
predicted_R	0.298	-0.048
predicted_RBI	0.257	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.353	0.000
predicted_SO	0.621	-0.071

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.244 HR/AB=0.027

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=7.0, BvP AVG=0.143)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 26

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	22.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	0.2273	0.2273	0.2273	0.2273	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0909
last_10	0.35	10	-	36.000	10.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	3.000	1.000	7.000	0.2778	0.2895	0.4722	0.2778	0.0556	0.1111	0.0278	0.1944
season	0.20	26	-	96.000	25.000	4.000	4.000	14.000	9.000	5.000	18.000	0.2604	0.2952	0.4271	0.2604	0.0417	0.1458	0.0521	0.1875

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0720
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9780
predicted_AVG	0.2516
predicted_BB	0.0800
predicted_H	1.0010
predicted_HBP	0.0080
predicted_HR	0.1110
predicted_OBP	0.2626
predicted_R	0.2720
predicted_RBI	0.2710
predicted_SLG	0.3530
predicted_SO	0.5830

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1540	0.0720	0.1007	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6920	3.9780	3.8779	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2520	0.2516	0.2517	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1920	0.0800	0.1192	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	1.0010	0.9446	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0080	0.0080	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0900	0.1110	0.1037	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2630	0.2626	0.2627	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3460	0.2720	0.2979	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.2710	0.2567	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3530	0.3530	0.3530	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.6920	0.5830	0.6211	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	26
Season rows before report date	26
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	26
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.26

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260504_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	660821
playerID	660821
playerName	Jesús Sánchez
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	TOR
teamID	29

Lenyn Sosa (672820) · BATTER · 1B · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 11

All-history rows before 20260505: 11

System season_avg: 0.2320

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2250

Diff (system - data): 0.0070

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.263	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.182	0.000	-0.182	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.632	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.636	5.000	-0.636	-2.000
predicted_AVG	0.235	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.225	0.000	-0.225	0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.740	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.818	0.000	-0.818	0.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.235	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.220	0.000	-0.220	0.000
predicted_R	0.368	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.455	0.000	-0.455	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.320	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.364	0.000	-0.364	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.350	0.000	-0.350	0.000
predicted_SO	0.842	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.909	2.000	-0.909	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.263	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.632	-
predicted_AVG	0.235	-
predicted_BB	0.000	-
predicted_H	0.740	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.235	-
predicted_R	0.368	-
predicted_RBI	0.320	-
predicted_SLG	0.395	-
predicted_SO	0.842	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.231	-0.032
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.755	0.123
predicted_AVG	0.235	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.841	0.101
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.125	0.015
predicted_OBP	0.235	-0.000
predicted_R	0.520	0.152
predicted_RBI	0.361	0.041
predicted_SLG	0.395	0.000
predicted_SO	0.980	0.138

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.75), rates preserved: AVG=0.224 HR/AB=0.033

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 19

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	5.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	6.000	0.2500	0.2500	0.4500	0.2500	0.0500	0.1000	0.3000
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	8.000	2.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	10.000	0.2162	0.2162	0.3514	0.2162	0.0270	0.1081	0.2703
season	0.20	19	-	69.000	16.000	5.000	1.000	6.000	7.000	16.000	0.2319	0.2319	0.3478	0.2319	0.0145	0.0870	0.2319

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2140
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8210
predicted_AVG	0.2346
predicted_BB	0.0000
predicted_H	0.8960
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1330
predicted_OBP	0.2346
predicted_R	0.6020
predicted_RBI	0.3830
predicted_SLG	0.3951
predicted_SO	1.0550

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2630	0.2140	0.2311	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.6320	3.8210	3.7549	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2350	0.2346	0.2347	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7400	0.8960	0.8414	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1330	0.1250	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2350	0.2346	0.2347	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3680	0.6020	0.5201	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3200	0.3830	0.3609	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3950	0.3951	0.3951	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8420	1.0550	0.9804	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	11
Season rows before report date	11
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	19
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.232

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260503_TOR@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	672820
playerID	672820
playerName	Lenyn Sosa
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	TOR
teamID	29

George Springer (543807) · BATTER · DH · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 17

All-history rows before 20260505: 17

System season_avg: 0.2030

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2031

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.235	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.765	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.765	1.000	-0.765	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.243	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.203	0.000	0.130	0.333
predicted_BB	0.471	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.471	0.000	0.529	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_H	0.840	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.765	0.000	0.235	1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.118	0.000	-0.118	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.352	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.301	0.500	0.199	0.000
predicted_R	0.235	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.235	0.000	-0.235	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.353	0.000	-0.353	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.335	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.359	0.000	-0.026	0.333
predicted_SO	0.882	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.882	0.000	-0.882	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.235	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.765	-
predicted_AVG	0.243	-
predicted_BB	0.471	-
predicted_H	0.840	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.352	-
predicted_R	0.235	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.335	-
predicted_SO	0.882	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.239	0.005
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.458	-0.307
predicted_AVG	0.243	0.000
predicted_BB	0.435	-0.036
predicted_H	0.814	-0.026
predicted_HBP	0.143	-
predicted_HR	0.021	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.352	-0.000
predicted_R	0.217	-0.018
predicted_RBI	0.268	-0.012
predicted_SLG	0.335	0.000
predicted_SO	0.561	-0.321

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.77), rates preserved: AVG=0.216 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=15.0, BvP AVG=0.133)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	1.000	0.2667	0.3889	0.3333	0.2667	0.0000	0.0667	0.1333	0.0667
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	8.000	3.000	0.000	3.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	0.2353	0.3333	0.3235	0.2353	0.0000	0.0882	0.1177	0.1177
season	0.20	17	-	64.000	13.000	4.000	2.000	6.000	4.000	8.000	15.000	0.2031	0.3014	0.3594	0.2031	0.0312	0.0938	0.1250	0.2344

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2420
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.2930
predicted_AVG	0.2430
predicted_BB	0.4150
predicted_H	0.8000
predicted_HBP	0.1430
predicted_HR	0.0210
predicted_OBP	0.3519
predicted_R	0.2080
predicted_RBI	0.2620
predicted_SLG	0.3351
predicted_SO	0.3890

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2350	0.2420	0.2395	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7650	3.2930	3.4582	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2430	0.2430	0.2430	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4710	0.4150	0.4346	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.8400	0.8000	0.8140	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1430	0.1430	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0210	0.0207	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3520	0.3519	0.3519	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2350	0.2080	0.2174	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.2620	0.2683	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3350	0.3351	0.3351	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8820	0.3890	0.5615	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.203

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	1
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	1
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260502_TOR@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	543807
playerID	543807
playerName	George Springer
pos	DH
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	TOR
teamID	29

Kazuma Okamoto (672960) · BATTER · 3B · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 34

All-history rows before 20260505: 34

System season_avg: 0.2360

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2362

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.059	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.735	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.735	4.000	0.265	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.277	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.236	0.250	-0.236	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.471	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.471	1.000	-0.471	-1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.940	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.882	1.000	-0.882	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.520	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.265	0.000	-0.265	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.377	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.322	0.400	-0.322	-0.400
predicted_R	0.529	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.529	0.000	-0.529	0.000
predicted_RBI	1.070	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.647	0.000	-0.647	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.734	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.465	0.250	-0.465	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.235	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	1.235	2.000	-1.235	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.059	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.735	-
predicted_AVG	0.277	-
predicted_BB	0.471	-
predicted_H	0.940	-
predicted_HR	0.520	-
predicted_OBP	0.377	-
predicted_R	0.529	-
predicted_RBI	1.070	-
predicted_SLG	0.734	-
predicted_SO	1.235	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.028	-0.031
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.804	0.070
predicted_AVG	0.277	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.571	0.100
predicted_H	1.021	0.081
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.560	0.040
predicted_OBP	0.377	-0.000
predicted_R	0.782	0.253
predicted_RBI	1.162	0.092
predicted_SLG	0.734	0.000
predicted_SO	1.035	-0.200

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.80), rates preserved: AVG=0.268 HR/AB=0.147

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	-1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	6.000	0.000	4.000	7.000	6.000	4.000	4.000	0.3000	0.4167	0.9000	0.3000	0.2000	0.3500	0.2000	0.2000
last_10	0.35	10	-	37.000	10.000	0.000	5.000	13.000	8.000	5.000	9.000	0.2703	0.3571	0.6757	0.2703	0.1351	0.3513	0.1351	0.2432
season	0.20	34	-	127.000	30.000	2.000	9.000	22.000	18.000	16.000	42.000	0.2362	0.3217	0.4646	0.2362	0.0709	0.1732	0.1260	0.3307

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0120
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.8420
predicted_AVG	0.2768
predicted_BB	0.6240
predicted_H	1.0640
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.5820
predicted_OBP	0.3768
predicted_R	0.9180
predicted_RBI	1.2110
predicted_SLG	0.7344
predicted_SO	0.9270

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0590	0.0120	0.0284	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7350	3.8420	3.8045	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2770	0.2768	0.2769	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4710	0.6240	0.5705	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9400	1.0640	1.0206	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.5200	0.5820	0.5603	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3770	0.3768	0.3769	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5290	0.9180	0.7819	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	1.0700	1.2110	1.1617	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.7340	0.7344	0.7343	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.2350	0.9270	1.0348	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.236

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260504_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	672960
playerID	672960
playerName	Kazuma Okamoto
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	TOR
teamID	29

Daulton Varsho (662139) · BATTER · CF · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 30

All-history rows before 20260505: 30

System season_avg: 0.2300

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2301

Diff (system - data): -0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.767	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.767	4.000	-0.767	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.208	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.230	0.000	0.103	0.333
predicted_BB	0.333	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.650	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.867	0.000	0.133	1.000
predicted_HR	0.120	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.133	0.000	-0.133	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.267	0.333	0.333	Hitting_OBP	0.304	0.000	0.029	0.333
predicted_R	0.467	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.467	0.000	-0.467	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.067	0.000	-0.067	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.394	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.389	0.000	-0.056	0.333
predicted_SO	0.733	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.733	3.000	0.267	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.200	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.767	-
predicted_AVG	0.208	-
predicted_BB	0.333	-
predicted_H	0.650	-
predicted_HR	0.120	-
predicted_OBP	0.267	-
predicted_R	0.467	-
predicted_RBI	0.240	-
predicted_SLG	0.394	-
predicted_SO	0.733	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.256	0.056
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.901	0.134
predicted_AVG	0.208	0.000
predicted_BB	0.289	-0.044
predicted_H	0.766	0.116
predicted_HBP	0.051	-
predicted_HR	0.140	0.020
predicted_OBP	0.267	-0.000
predicted_R	0.536	0.069
predicted_RBI	0.283	0.043
predicted_SLG	0.394	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.793	0.060

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.90), rates preserved: AVG=0.196 HR/AB=0.036

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, BvP AVG=0.200)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 30

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	5.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	3.000	1.000	4.000	0.2381	0.2727	0.4762	0.2381	0.0476	0.0952	0.0476	0.1905
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	6.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	3.000	9.000	0.1579	0.2381	0.2895	0.1579	0.0263	0.0526	0.0790	0.2368
season	0.20	30	-	113.000	26.000	6.000	4.000	9.000	14.000	10.000	22.000	0.2301	0.3040	0.3894	0.2301	0.0354	0.0796	0.0885	0.1947

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2860
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9730
predicted_AVG	0.2084
predicted_BB	0.2650
predicted_H	0.8280
predicted_HBP	0.0510
predicted_HR	0.1500
predicted_OBP	0.2669
predicted_R	0.5730
predicted_RBI	0.3070
predicted_SLG	0.3935
predicted_SO	0.8250

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2000	0.2860	0.2559	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7670	3.9730	3.9009	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2080	0.2084	0.2083	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3330	0.2650	0.2888	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6500	0.8280	0.7657	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0510	0.0510	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1200	0.1500	0.1395	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2670	0.2669	0.2669	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4670	0.5730	0.5359	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2400	0.3070	0.2835	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3940	0.3935	0.3937	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7330	0.8250	0.7928	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	30
Season rows before report date	30
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	30
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.23

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	3
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260504_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	662139
playerID	662139
playerName	Daulton Varsho
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	TOR
teamID	29

Ernie Clement (676391) · BATTER · 2B · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 34

All-history rows before 20260505: 34

System season_avg: 0.2900

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2899

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.382	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.382	0.000	-0.382	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	4.059	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	4.059	4.000	-1.059	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.290	0.250	-0.290	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.147	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.147	0.000	-0.147	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.730	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.176	1.000	-1.176	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.110	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.286	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.315	0.250	-0.315	-0.250
predicted_R	0.324	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.324	0.000	-0.324	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.280	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.265	0.000	-0.265	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.029	0.000	-0.029	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.368	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.406	0.250	-0.406	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.294	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.294	0.000	0.706	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.382	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	4.059	-
predicted_AVG	0.222	-
predicted_BB	0.147	-
predicted_H	0.730	-
predicted_HR	0.110	-
predicted_OBP	0.286	-
predicted_R	0.324	-
predicted_RBI	0.280	-
predicted_SLG	0.368	-
predicted_SO	0.294	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.253	-0.129
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.983	-0.076
predicted_AVG	0.222	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.280	0.133
predicted_H	0.824	0.094
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.124	0.014
predicted_OBP	0.286	-0.000
predicted_R	0.340	0.016
predicted_RBI	0.318	0.038
predicted_SLG	0.368	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.269	-0.025

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.06), rates preserved: AVG=0.203 HR/AB=0.030

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 34

Reference playing time: 4.059

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	0.2000	0.2727	0.3500	0.2000	0.0500	0.1000	0.1000	0.0500
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	8.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	4.000	3.000	0.2105	0.2857	0.3684	0.2105	0.0263	0.0790	0.1053	0.0790
season	0.20	34	-	138.000	40.000	13.000	1.000	9.000	11.000	5.000	10.000	0.2899	0.3147	0.4058	0.2899	0.0073	0.0652	0.0362	0.0725

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1830
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.9420
predicted_AVG	0.2217
predicted_BB	0.3510
predicted_H	0.8740
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.1310
predicted_OBP	0.2857
predicted_R	0.3490
predicted_RBI	0.3380
predicted_SLG	0.3676
predicted_SO	0.2550

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3820	0.1830	0.2526	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0590	3.9420	3.9829	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2220	0.2217	0.2218	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1470	0.3510	0.2796	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.7300	0.8740	0.8236	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1100	0.1310	0.1237	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2860	0.2857	0.2858	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.3240	0.3490	0.3402	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2800	0.3380	0.3177	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3680	0.3676	0.3677	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.2940	0.2550	0.2686	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	34
Season rows before report date	34
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	34
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.29

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260504_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	676391
playerID	676391
playerName	Ernie Clement
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	TOR
teamID	29

Brandon Valenzuela (678218) · BATTER · C · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 14

All-history rows before 20260505: 14

System season_avg: 0.2220

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2222

Diff (system - data): -0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.214	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.214	4.000	-0.214	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.262	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.222	0.250	-0.222	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.214	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.630	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.714	1.000	-0.714	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.220	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.214	0.000	-0.214	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.329	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.271	0.250	-0.271	-0.250
predicted_R	0.429	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.440	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.429	0.000	-0.429	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.536	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.422	0.250	-0.422	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.143	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.143	2.000	-0.143	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.214	-
predicted_AVG	0.262	-
predicted_BB	0.214	-
predicted_H	0.630	-
predicted_HR	0.220	-
predicted_OBP	0.329	-
predicted_R	0.429	-
predicted_RBI	0.440	-
predicted_SLG	0.536	-
predicted_SO	1.143	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.000	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.207	-0.007
predicted_AVG	0.262	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.288	0.074
predicted_H	0.765	0.135
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.268	0.048
predicted_OBP	0.329	0.000
predicted_R	0.531	0.102
predicted_RBI	0.535	0.095
predicted_SLG	0.536	0.000
predicted_SO	1.010	-0.133

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.21), rates preserved: AVG=0.238 HR/AB=0.083

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	16.000	5.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	2.000	4.000	0.3125	0.3889	0.6875	0.3125	0.1250	0.2500	0.1250	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	32.000	7.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	3.000	10.000	0.2188	0.2857	0.4062	0.2188	0.0625	0.1250	0.0938	0.3125
season	0.20	14	-	45.000	10.000	3.000	6.000	6.000	3.000	16.000	0.2222	0.2708	0.4222	0.2222	0.0667	0.1333	0.0667	0.3556

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0000
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.2030
predicted_AVG	0.2616
predicted_BB	0.3280
predicted_H	0.8380
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.2930
predicted_OBP	0.3292
predicted_R	0.5860
predicted_RBI	0.5860
predicted_SLG	0.5360
predicted_SO	0.9380

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.2140	3.2030	3.2069	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2620	0.2616	0.2617	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2140	0.3280	0.2881	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6300	0.8380	0.7652	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2200	0.2930	0.2675	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3290	0.3292	0.3291	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4290	0.5860	0.5311	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4400	0.5860	0.5349	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5360	0.5360	0.5360	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.1430	0.9380	1.0097	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.222

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	9
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260504_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	678218
playerID	678218
playerName	Brandon Valenzuela
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	TOR
teamID	29

Andrés Giménez (665926) · BATTER · SS · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 31

All-history rows before 20260505: 31

System season_avg: 0.2610

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2609

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.194	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.194	0.000	-0.194	0.000
predicted_3B	0.032	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.032	0.000	-0.032	0.000
predicted_AB	3.710	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.710	4.000	-0.710	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.182	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.261	0.250	-0.261	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.129	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.129	0.000	-0.129	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.530	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.968	1.000	-0.968	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.097	0.000	-0.097	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.215	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.289	0.250	-0.289	-0.250
predicted_R	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.290	0.000	-0.290	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.190	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.516	0.000	-0.516	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.129	0.000	-0.129	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.409	0.250	-0.409	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.581	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.581	0.000	0.419	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.194	-
predicted_3B	0.032	-
predicted_AB	3.710	-
predicted_AVG	0.182	-
predicted_BB	0.129	-
predicted_H	0.530	-
predicted_HR	0.020	-
predicted_OBP	0.215	-
predicted_R	0.290	-
predicted_RBI	0.190	-
predicted_SLG	0.240	-
predicted_SO	0.581	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.162	-0.033
predicted_3B	0.016	-0.016
predicted_AB	3.757	0.047
predicted_AVG	0.182	0.000
predicted_BB	0.062	-0.067
predicted_H	0.634	0.104
predicted_HBP	0.131	-
predicted_HR	0.020	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.215	0.000
predicted_R	0.185	-0.105
predicted_RBI	0.226	0.036
predicted_SLG	0.240	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.533	-0.048

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.76), rates preserved: AVG=0.169 HR/AB=0.005

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	3.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 31

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	2.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	0.1053	0.1500	0.1053	0.1053	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.1053
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	9.000	3.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	2.000	0.000	6.000	0.2368	0.2564	0.3158	0.2368	0.0000	0.1053	0.0000	0.1579
season	0.20	31	-	115.000	30.000	6.000	1.000	3.000	16.000	9.000	4.000	18.000	0.2609	0.2893	0.4087	0.2609	0.0261	0.1391	0.0348	0.1565

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1440
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.7820
predicted_AVG	0.1824
predicted_BB	0.0260
predicted_H	0.6900
predicted_HBP	0.1310
predicted_HR	0.0200
predicted_OBP	0.2151
predicted_R	0.1290
predicted_RBI	0.2450
predicted_SLG	0.2397
predicted_SO	0.5070

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1940	0.1440	0.1615	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0320	0.0070	0.0158	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7100	3.7820	3.7568	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.1820	0.1824	0.1823	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1290	0.0260	0.0620	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5300	0.6900	0.6340	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1310	0.1310	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0200	0.0200	0.0200	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2150	0.2151	0.2151	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2900	0.1290	0.1854	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1900	0.2450	0.2258	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2400	0.2397	0.2398	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5810	0.5070	0.5329	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	31
Season rows before report date	31
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	31
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	3
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.261

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	1
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	SS
gameID	20260504_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	665926
playerID	665926
playerName	Andrés Giménez
pos	SS
started	True
startingPosition	SS
team	TOR
teamID	29

Yohendrick Pinango (682818) · BATTER · LF · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 6

All-history rows before 20260505: 6

System season_avg: 0.5290

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.5294

Diff (system - data): -0.0004

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.167	1.000	-0.167	-1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.833	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	2.833	5.000	1.167	-1.000
predicted_AVG	0.531	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.529	0.600	-0.529	-0.600
predicted_BB	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.370	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.500	3.000	-1.500	-3.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.559	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.556	0.600	-0.556	-0.600
predicted_R	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.167	1.000	-0.167	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.480	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.500	0.000	-0.500	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.594	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.588	0.800	-0.588	-0.800
predicted_SO	0.167	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.167	0.000	-0.167	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.167	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.833	-
predicted_AVG	0.531	-
predicted_BB	0.167	-
predicted_H	1.370	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.559	-
predicted_R	0.167	-
predicted_RBI	0.480	-
predicted_SLG	0.594	-
predicted_SO	0.167	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.176	0.009
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.882	0.049
predicted_AVG	0.531	0.000
predicted_BB	0.176	0.009
predicted_H	1.484	0.114
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.559	-0.000
predicted_R	0.176	0.009
predicted_RBI	0.522	0.042
predicted_SLG	0.594	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.176	0.009

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.88), rates preserved: AVG=0.515 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	2.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	0.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	8.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.5333	0.5625	0.6000	0.5333	0.2000	0.0667	0.0667
last_10	0.35	6	-	17.000	9.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.5294	0.5556	0.5882	0.5294	0.1765	0.0588	0.0588
season	0.20	6	-	17.000	9.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	1.000	1.000	0.5294	0.5556	0.5882	0.5294	0.1765	0.0588	0.0588

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1810
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.9080
predicted_AVG	0.5312
predicted_BB	0.1810
predicted_H	1.5450
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.5587
predicted_R	0.1810
predicted_RBI	0.5440
predicted_SLG	0.5935
predicted_SO	0.1810

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1670	0.1810	0.1761	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.8330	2.9080	2.8818	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.5310	0.5312	0.5311	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.1670	0.1810	0.1761	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.3700	1.5450	1.4838	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.5590	0.5587	0.5588	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.1670	0.1810	0.1761	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4800	0.5440	0.5216	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5940	0.5935	0.5937	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.1670	0.1810	0.1761	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.529

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	5
Hitting_AVG	0.6
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	4
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260504_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	682818
playerID	682818
playerName	Yohendrick Pinango
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	TOR
teamID	29

Kevin Gausman (592332) · PITCHER · Starter · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 7

All-history rows before 20260505: 7

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_ER	2.000	4.000	0.000	-2.000
predicted_IP	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.643	5.200	-1.643	-1.200
predicted_SO	3.000	3.000	-	Pitching_SO	5.714	2.000	-2.714	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 7

Reference playing time: 4.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	28.667	13.000	28.000	8.000	19.000	4.000	4.0814	1.2558	0.4535	0.9767	0.2791	0.6628	0.1395
last_10	0.35	7	40.667	14.000	31.000	8.000	40.000	5.000	3.0984	0.9590	0.3443	0.7623	0.1967	0.9836	0.1230
season	0.20	7	40.667	14.000	31.000	8.000	40.000	5.000	3.0984	0.9590	0.3443	0.7623	0.1967	0.9836	0.1230

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	1.3500
predicted_ER	2.2720
predicted_ERA	3.5408
predicted_H	4.9600
predicted_HR	0.7530
predicted_IP	5.7750
predicted_SO	4.8470
predicted_WHIP	1.0926

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	2.0000	1.3500	1.5775	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	2.0000	2.2720	2.1768	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	3.5408	3.5408	form_only
predicted_H	7.0000	4.9600	5.6740	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.7530	0.4894	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	4.0000	5.7750	5.1538	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	3.0000	4.8470	4.2005	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0926	1.0926	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	7
Season rows before report date	7
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	7
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	4.0
H	7
R	2
ER	2
BB	2
SO	3
HR	0
BF	21
Pitches	91

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	2
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	23
Pitching_ER	4
Pitching_ERA	3.10
Pitching_Flyouts	6
Pitching_Groundouts	4
Pitching_H	4
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.2
Pitching_Pitches	94
Pitching_R	4
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	58
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260430_TOR@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	592332
playerID	592332
playerName	Kevin Gausman
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Braydon Fisher (680755) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 17

All-history rows before 20260505: 17

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.353	3.000	-0.353	-3.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.859	0.200	0.141	0.800
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.059	1.000	-1.059	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.333	3.000	4.000	4.000	5.000	0.000	5.0625	1.5000	0.5625	0.7500	0.7500	0.9375	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	5.000	8.000	6.000	6.000	0.000	5.0000	1.5556	0.5556	0.8889	0.6667	0.6667	0.0000
season	0.20	17	18.333	6.000	14.000	7.000	18.000	1.000	2.9455	1.1455	0.3273	0.7636	0.3818	0.9818	0.0546

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.6540
predicted_ER	0.5190
predicted_ERA	4.6172
predicted_H	0.8100
predicted_HR	0.0110
predicted_IP	1.0110
predicted_SO	0.8610
predicted_WHIP	1.4486

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.6540	0.4251	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5190	0.3374	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.6172	4.6172	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8100	0.5265	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0110	0.0072	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0110	1.0071	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.8610	0.5596	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.4486	1.4486	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	3
Pitching_ERA	2.95
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.2
Pitching_Pitches	18
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	10
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_TOR@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	680755
playerID	680755
playerName	Braydon Fisher
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Jeff Hoffman (656546) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 16

All-history rows before 20260505: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.625	0.000	0.375	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.844	1.000	0.156	0.000
predicted_SO	2.000	2.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.750	0.000	0.250	2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.333	2.000	6.000	1.000	5.000	0.000	4.1538	1.6154	0.4615	1.3846	0.2308	1.1539	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.000	8.000	13.000	6.000	15.000	1.000	8.0000	2.1111	0.8889	1.4444	0.6667	1.6667	0.1111
season	0.20	16	14.667	10.000	20.000	7.000	28.000	2.000	6.1364	1.8409	0.6818	1.3636	0.4773	1.9091	0.1364

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3840
predicted_ER	0.5820
predicted_ERA	5.8965
predicted_H	1.2450
predicted_HR	0.0590
predicted_IP	0.8880
predicted_SO	1.3190
predicted_WHIP	1.8340

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3840	0.2496	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.5820	0.7283	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	5.8965	5.8965	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	1.2450	1.1593	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0590	0.0384	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.8880	0.9272	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	2.0000	1.3190	1.5574	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.8340	1.8340	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	2
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	19

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	6.14
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	12
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	8
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_TOR@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	656546
playerID	656546
playerName	Jeff Hoffman
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Louis Varland (686973) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 16

All-history rows before 20260505: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.062	0.000	0.938	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.931	1.000	0.069	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.750	2.000	-0.750	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.667	1.000	5.000	2.000	9.000	1.9286	1.5000	0.2143	1.0714	0.4286	1.9286
last_10	0.35	10	10.333	1.000	8.000	3.000	19.000	0.8710	1.0645	0.0968	0.7742	0.2903	1.8387
season	0.20	16	17.000	1.000	13.000	5.000	28.000	0.5294	1.0588	0.0588	0.7647	0.2941	1.6471

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3510
predicted_ER	0.1410
predicted_ERA	1.2786
predicted_H	0.9010
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	0.9940
predicted_SO	1.8300
predicted_WHIP	1.2593

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3510	0.2281	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.1410	0.4416	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.2786	1.2786	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.9010	0.9356	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0000	0.3500	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9940	0.9961	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.8300	1.5395	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2593	1.2593	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	1
HR	1
BF	4
Pitches	14

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	5
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.53
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	1
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	27
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	16
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	5
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260501_TOR@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	686973
playerID	686973
playerName	Louis Varland
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Tyler Rogers (643511) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TOR

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 16

All-history rows before 20260505: 16

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.962	1.000	0.038	0.000
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.625	2.000	0.375	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 16

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	5.000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	1.0000
last_10	0.35	10	9.667	1.000	4.000	1.000	5.000	0.9310	0.5172	0.1035	0.4138	0.1035	0.5172
season	0.20	16	16.333	1.000	8.000	4.000	10.000	0.5510	0.7347	0.0612	0.4898	0.2449	0.6122

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.0850
predicted_ER	0.0480
predicted_ERA	0.4360
predicted_H	0.2410
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_IP	0.9930
predicted_SO	0.7480
predicted_WHIP	0.3280

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.0850	0.4052	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.0480	0.0312	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	0.4360	0.4360	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.2410	0.1567	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.9930	0.9954	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	0.7480	0.8362	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.3280	0.3280	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	16
Season rows before report date	16
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	16
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	1
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	18

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0.55
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	9
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	7
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260501_TOR@MIN
game_type	full
mlbID	643511
playerID	643511
playerName	Tyler Rogers
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TOR
teamID	29

Home Team: TB

Yandy Díaz (650490) · BATTER · DH · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 32

All-history rows before 20260505: 32

System season_avg: 0.3220

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.3223

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.094	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.094	0.000	-0.094	0.000
predicted_3B	0.031	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_AB	3.781	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.781	4.000	0.219	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.280	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.322	0.000	-0.072	0.250
predicted_BB	0.406	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.406	0.000	-0.406	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.960	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.219	0.000	-0.219	1.000
predicted_HR	0.190	1.000	1.000	Hitting_HR	0.156	0.000	0.844	1.000
predicted_OBP	0.359	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.410	0.000	-0.160	0.250
predicted_R	0.594	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.594	0.000	0.406	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.350	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.656	0.000	0.344	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.453	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SLG	0.488	0.000	0.512	1.000
predicted_SO	0.500	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.500	0.000	0.500	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.094	-
predicted_3B	0.031	-
predicted_AB	3.781	-
predicted_AVG	0.280	-
predicted_BB	0.406	-
predicted_H	0.960	-
predicted_HR	0.190	-
predicted_OBP	0.359	-
predicted_R	0.594	-
predicted_RBI	0.350	-
predicted_SLG	0.453	-
predicted_SO	0.500	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.044	-0.050
predicted_3B	0.015	-0.016
predicted_AB	3.606	-0.175
predicted_AVG	0.280	0.000
predicted_BB	0.381	-0.025
predicted_H	0.976	0.016
predicted_HBP	0.064	-
predicted_HR	0.191	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.359	-0.000
predicted_R	0.621	0.027
predicted_RBI	0.353	0.003
predicted_SLG	0.453	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.447	-0.053

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.78), rates preserved: AVG=0.258 HR/AB=0.051

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	0.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=12.0, BvP AVG=0.583)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	1.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	1.000	1.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	17.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	2.000	2.000	0.2353	0.3158	0.4118	0.2353	0.0588	0.0588	0.1177	0.1177
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	11.000	0.000	0.000	2.000	4.000	7.000	3.000	4.000	0.3143	0.3846	0.4857	0.3143	0.0571	0.1143	0.0857	0.1143
season	0.20	32	-	121.000	39.000	3.000	1.000	5.000	21.000	19.000	13.000	16.000	0.3223	0.4101	0.4876	0.3223	0.0413	0.1736	0.1074	0.1322

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0170
predicted_3B	0.0060
predicted_AB	3.5110
predicted_AVG	0.2804
predicted_BB	0.3670
predicted_H	0.9840
predicted_HBP	0.0640
predicted_HR	0.1920
predicted_OBP	0.3587
predicted_R	0.6350
predicted_RBI	0.3550
predicted_SLG	0.4528
predicted_SO	0.4190

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0940	0.0170	0.0440	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0310	0.0060	0.0147	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7810	3.5110	3.6055	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2800	0.2804	0.2803	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4060	0.3670	0.3807	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9600	0.9840	0.9756	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0640	0.0640	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1900	0.1920	0.1913	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3590	0.3587	0.3588	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5940	0.6350	0.6206	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.3500	0.3550	0.3532	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.4530	0.4528	0.4529	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.5000	0.4190	0.4473	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	1
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.322

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	4
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	DH
gameID	20260504_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	650490
playerID	650490
playerName	Yandy Díaz
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	DH
team	TB
teamID	27

Junior Caminero (691406) · BATTER · 3B · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 33

All-history rows before 20260505: 33

System season_avg: 0.2600

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2598

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.091	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.091	0.000	-0.091	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.848	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.848	3.000	-0.848	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.262	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.260	0.000	-0.260	0.000
predicted_BB	0.545	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.545	1.000	0.455	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.061	0.000	-0.061	0.000
predicted_H	0.910	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000
predicted_HR	0.290	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.273	0.000	-0.273	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.395	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.349	0.250	-0.099	0.000
predicted_R	0.636	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.636	1.000	-0.636	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.400	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.485	0.000	-0.485	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.519	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.496	0.000	-0.496	0.000
predicted_SO	0.788	2.000	2.000	Hitting_SO	0.788	1.000	1.212	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.091	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.848	-
predicted_AVG	0.262	-
predicted_BB	0.545	-
predicted_H	0.910	-
predicted_HR	0.290	-
predicted_OBP	0.395	-
predicted_R	0.636	-
predicted_RBI	0.400	-
predicted_SLG	0.519	-
predicted_SO	0.788	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.042	-0.049
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.521	-0.327
predicted_AVG	0.262	0.000
predicted_BB	0.687	0.142
predicted_H	0.888	-0.022
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.285	-0.005
predicted_OBP	0.395	-0.000
predicted_R	0.708	0.072
predicted_RBI	0.390	-0.010
predicted_SLG	0.519	0.000
predicted_SO	0.930	0.142

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.85), rates preserved: AVG=0.231 HR/AB=0.074

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=8.0, BvP AVG=0.250)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	1.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	-1.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	-1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 33

Reference playing time: 3.848

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	15.000	4.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	5.000	6.000	0.2667	0.4500	0.4667	0.2667	0.0667	0.0667	0.3333	0.4000
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	9.000	0.000	4.000	6.000	7.000	5.000	8.000	0.2571	0.3500	0.6000	0.2571	0.1143	0.1714	0.1429	0.2286
season	0.20	33	-	127.000	33.000	3.000	9.000	16.000	21.000	18.000	26.000	0.2598	0.3493	0.4961	0.2598	0.0709	0.1260	0.1417	0.2047

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0160
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	3.3450
predicted_AVG	0.2620
predicted_BB	0.7640
predicted_H	0.8760
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.2820
predicted_OBP	0.3949
predicted_R	0.7460
predicted_RBI	0.3850
predicted_SLG	0.5192
predicted_SO	1.0070

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0910	0.0160	0.0422	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.8480	3.3450	3.5210	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2620	0.2620	0.2620	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5450	0.7640	0.6874	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9100	0.8760	0.8879	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.2900	0.2820	0.2848	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3950	0.3949	0.3949	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.6360	0.7460	0.7075	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.4000	0.3850	0.3902	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5190	0.5192	0.5191	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7880	1.0070	0.9304	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	33
Season rows before report date	33
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	33
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	2
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.26

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	3
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	1
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	2
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	3B
gameID	20260504_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	691406
playerID	691406
playerName	Junior Caminero
pos	3B
started	True
startingPosition	3B
team	TB
teamID	27

Hunter Feduccia (676439) · BATTER · C · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 13

All-history rows before 20260505: 13

System season_avg: 0.2760

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2759

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.086	2.000	2.000	Hitting_2B	0.077	1.000	1.923	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.500	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	2.231	1.000	0.769	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.314	0.667	0.667	Hitting_AVG	0.276	1.000	0.391	-0.333
predicted_BB	0.431	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.385	0.000	0.615	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.550	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.615	1.000	1.385	1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.430	0.750	0.750	Hitting_OBP	0.400	1.000	0.350	-0.250
predicted_R	0.431	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.385	1.000	0.615	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.231	0.000	-0.231	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.378	1.333	1.333	Hitting_SLG	0.310	2.000	1.023	-0.667
predicted_SO	0.948	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.846	0.000	-0.846	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.086	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.500	-
predicted_AVG	0.314	-
predicted_BB	0.431	-
predicted_H	0.550	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.430	-
predicted_R	0.431	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.378	-
predicted_SO	0.948	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.122	0.036
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.309	-0.191
predicted_AVG	0.314	0.000
predicted_BB	0.350	-0.081
predicted_H	0.643	0.093
predicted_HBP	0.141	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.430	0.000
predicted_R	0.409	-0.022
predicted_RBI	0.273	0.043
predicted_SLG	0.378	0.000
predicted_SO	0.799	-0.149

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.50), rates preserved: AVG=0.257 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	2.000	2.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 13

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	11.000	4.000	1.000	2.000	2.000	1.000	3.000	0.3636	0.4615	0.4545	0.3636	0.1818	0.0909	0.2727
last_10	0.35	10	-	22.000	6.000	1.000	2.000	4.000	4.000	8.000	0.2727	0.4074	0.3182	0.2727	0.0909	0.1818	0.3636
season	0.20	13	-	29.000	8.000	1.000	3.000	5.000	5.000	11.000	0.2759	0.4000	0.3103	0.2759	0.1035	0.1724	0.3793

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.1410
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.2060
predicted_AVG	0.3142
predicted_BB	0.3070
predicted_H	0.6930
predicted_HBP	0.1410
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.4303
predicted_R	0.3970
predicted_RBI	0.2960
predicted_SLG	0.3780
predicted_SO	0.7190

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0860	0.1410	0.1217	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.5000	2.2060	2.3089	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3140	0.3142	0.3141	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.4310	0.3070	0.3504	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.5500	0.6930	0.6429	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.1410	0.1410	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4300	0.4303	0.4302	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4310	0.3970	0.4089	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.2960	0.2729	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3780	0.3780	0.3780	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.9480	0.7190	0.7992	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	13
Season rows before report date	13
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	13
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	2
2B	2
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.276

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	1
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	1
Hitting_AVG	1.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	1
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	8
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	C
gameID	20260502_SF@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	676439
playerID	676439
playerName	Hunter Feduccia
pos	C
started	True
startingPosition	C
team	TB
teamID	27

Cedric Mullins (656775) · BATTER · CF · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 27

All-history rows before 20260505: 27

System season_avg: 0.1290

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1287

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.074	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.074	0.000	-0.074	0.000
predicted_3B	0.037	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.037	0.000	-0.037	0.000
predicted_AB	3.741	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.741	4.000	0.259	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.079	0.000	0.000	Hitting_AVG	0.129	0.000	-0.129	0.000
predicted_BB	0.222	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.074	0.000	-0.074	0.000
predicted_H	0.240	0.000	0.000	Hitting_H	0.481	0.000	-0.481	0.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.074	0.000	-0.074	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.138	0.000	0.000	Hitting_OBP	0.191	0.000	-0.191	0.000
predicted_R	0.296	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.296	0.000	-0.296	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.160	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.333	0.000	-0.333	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.222	0.000	-0.222	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.109	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SLG	0.228	0.000	-0.228	0.000
predicted_SO	0.778	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.778	0.000	0.222	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.074	-
predicted_3B	0.037	-
predicted_AB	3.741	-
predicted_AVG	0.079	-
predicted_BB	0.222	-
predicted_H	0.240	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.138	-
predicted_R	0.296	-
predicted_RBI	0.160	-
predicted_SLG	0.109	-
predicted_SO	0.778	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.059	-0.015
predicted_3B	0.018	-0.019
predicted_AB	3.703	-0.038
predicted_AVG	0.079	0.000
predicted_BB	0.234	0.012
predicted_H	0.274	0.034
predicted_HBP	0.015	-
predicted_HR	0.013	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.138	0.000
predicted_R	0.165	-0.131
predicted_RBI	0.179	0.019
predicted_SLG	0.109	0.000
predicted_SO	0.629	-0.149

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.74), rates preserved: AVG=0.073 HR/AB=0.004

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=17.0, BvP AVG=0.294)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	0.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 27

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	19.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	0.0526	0.1000	0.0526	0.0526	0.0000	0.0526	0.0526	0.1053
last_10	0.35	10	-	35.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	6.000	0.0857	0.1579	0.1143	0.0857	0.0000	0.0286	0.0857	0.1714
season	0.20	27	-	101.000	13.000	2.000	1.000	2.000	9.000	8.000	6.000	21.000	0.1287	0.1909	0.2277	0.1287	0.0198	0.0891	0.0594	0.2079

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0510
predicted_3B	0.0070
predicted_AB	3.6830
predicted_AVG	0.0794
predicted_BB	0.2410
predicted_H	0.2930
predicted_HBP	0.0150
predicted_HR	0.0150
predicted_OBP	0.1384
predicted_R	0.0950
predicted_RBI	0.1900
predicted_SLG	0.1092
predicted_SO	0.5490

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0740	0.0510	0.0590	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0370	0.0070	0.0175	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7410	3.6830	3.7033	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.0790	0.0794	0.0793	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2220	0.2410	0.2344	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.2400	0.2930	0.2744	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0150	0.0150	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0150	0.0132	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.1380	0.1384	0.1383	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2960	0.0950	0.1653	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1600	0.1900	0.1795	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1090	0.1092	0.1091	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7780	0.5490	0.6292	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	27
Season rows before report date	27
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	27
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	0
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.129

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	CF
gameID	20260503_SF@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	656775
playerID	656775
playerName	Cedric Mullins
pos	CF
started	True
startingPosition	CF
team	TB
teamID	27

Jonathan Aranda (666018) · BATTER · 1B · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 32

All-history rows before 20260505: 32

System season_avg: 0.2730

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2727

Diff (system - data): 0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.125	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.781	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.781	4.000	0.219	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.395	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.273	0.750	-0.023	-0.500
predicted_BB	0.531	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.531	0.000	-0.531	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	1.360	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.031	3.000	-0.031	-2.000
predicted_HR	0.130	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.219	0.000	-0.219	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.423	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.359	0.750	-0.109	-0.500
predicted_R	0.531	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.531	1.000	-0.531	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.730	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.875	0.000	-0.875	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.516	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.479	0.750	-0.229	-0.500
predicted_SO	1.094	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	1.094	1.000	-0.094	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.125	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.781	-
predicted_AVG	0.395	-
predicted_BB	0.531	-
predicted_H	1.360	-
predicted_HR	0.130	-
predicted_OBP	0.423	-
predicted_R	0.531	-
predicted_RBI	0.730	-
predicted_SLG	0.516	-
predicted_SO	1.094	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.061	-0.064
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.930	0.149
predicted_AVG	0.395	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.283	-0.248
predicted_H	1.504	0.144
predicted_HBP	0.043	-
predicted_HR	0.146	0.016
predicted_OBP	0.423	-0.000
predicted_R	0.432	-0.099
predicted_RBI	0.810	0.080
predicted_SLG	0.516	0.000
predicted_SO	1.229	0.135

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=3.93), rates preserved: AVG=0.383 HR/AB=0.037

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	2.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	1.000	0.000
SO	2.000	1.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	2.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	1.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	2.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	-1.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	-1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	21.000	10.000	0.000	0.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	7.000	0.4762	0.4762	0.4762	0.4762	0.0000	0.1905	0.0000	0.3333
last_10	0.35	10	-	39.000	14.000	0.000	3.000	9.000	5.000	1.000	13.000	0.3590	0.3902	0.5897	0.3590	0.0769	0.2308	0.0256	0.3333
season	0.20	32	-	121.000	33.000	4.000	7.000	28.000	17.000	17.000	35.000	0.2727	0.3592	0.4793	0.2727	0.0578	0.2314	0.1405	0.2893

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0270
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	4.0110
predicted_AVG	0.3945
predicted_BB	0.1490
predicted_H	1.5820
predicted_HBP	0.0430
predicted_HR	0.1540
predicted_OBP	0.4227
predicted_R	0.3790
predicted_RBI	0.8530
predicted_SLG	0.5165
predicted_SO	1.3020

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.1250	0.0270	0.0613	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.7810	4.0110	3.9305	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.3950	0.3945	0.3947	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5310	0.1490	0.2827	model_form_blend
predicted_H	1.3600	1.5820	1.5043	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0430	0.0430	form_only
predicted_HR	0.1300	0.1540	0.1456	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.4230	0.4227	0.4228	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5310	0.3790	0.4322	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.7300	0.8530	0.8099	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.5160	0.5165	0.5163	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0940	1.3020	1.2292	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.273

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.75
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	3
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	3
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	1B
gameID	20260504_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	666018
playerID	666018
playerName	Jonathan Aranda
pos	1B
started	True
startingPosition	1B
team	TB
teamID	27

Ben Williamson (810938) · BATTER · SS · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 23

All-history rows before 20260505: 23

System season_avg: 0.2370

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2368

Diff (system - data): 0.0002

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.227	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.217	0.000	-0.217	0.000
predicted_3B	0.045	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.043	0.000	-0.043	0.000
predicted_AB	3.455	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	3.304	4.000	0.696	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.230	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.237	0.500	0.013	-0.250
predicted_BB	0.364	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.391	0.000	-0.391	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.630	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.783	2.000	0.217	-1.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.284	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.318	0.500	-0.068	-0.250
predicted_R	0.500	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.478	1.000	-0.478	-1.000
predicted_RBI	0.150	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.435	0.000	-0.435	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.087	0.000	-0.087	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.279	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.329	0.500	-0.079	-0.250
predicted_SO	0.864	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.826	0.000	0.174	1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.227	-
predicted_3B	0.045	-
predicted_AB	3.455	-
predicted_AVG	0.230	-
predicted_BB	0.364	-
predicted_H	0.630	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.284	-
predicted_R	0.500	-
predicted_RBI	0.150	-
predicted_SLG	0.279	-
predicted_SO	0.864	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.133	-0.094
predicted_3B	0.045	0.000
predicted_AB	3.485	0.030
predicted_AVG	0.230	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.302	-0.062
predicted_H	0.743	0.113
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.284	0.000
predicted_R	0.368	-0.132
predicted_RBI	0.177	0.027
predicted_SLG	0.279	0.000
predicted_SO	0.774	-0.090

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.48), rates preserved: AVG=0.213 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 22

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	18.000	4.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	0.2222	0.2632	0.2222	0.2222	0.0000	0.0556	0.1667
last_10	0.35	10	-	34.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	3.000	3.000	3.000	8.000	0.2353	0.2973	0.3235	0.2353	0.0882	0.0882	0.2353
season	0.20	22	-	76.000	18.000	5.000	1.000	9.000	11.000	8.000	19.000	0.2368	0.3095	0.3289	0.2368	0.1184	0.1053	0.2500

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0820
predicted_3B	0.0450
predicted_AB	3.5010
predicted_AVG	0.2297
predicted_BB	0.2690
predicted_H	0.8040
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.2844
predicted_R	0.2970
predicted_RBI	0.1910
predicted_SLG	0.2790
predicted_SO	0.7260

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.2270	0.0820	0.1328	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0450	0.0450	0.0450	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.4550	3.5010	3.4849	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2300	0.2297	0.2298	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3640	0.2690	0.3023	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6300	0.8040	0.7431	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2840	0.2844	0.2843	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.5000	0.2970	0.3680	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1500	0.1910	0.1767	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2790	0.2790	0.2790	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.8640	0.7260	0.7743	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	23
Season rows before report date	23
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	22
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.237

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.5
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	2
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	2
Hitting_battingOrder	7
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260504_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	810938
playerID	810938
playerName	Ben Williamson
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	TB
teamID	27

Jake Fraley (641584) · BATTER · RF · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 20

All-history rows before 20260505: 20

System season_avg: 0.2460

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2459

Diff (system - data): 0.0001

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.300	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.300	0.000	-0.300	0.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	3.050	3.000	3.000	Hitting_AB	3.050	2.000	-0.050	1.000
predicted_AVG	0.246	0.333	0.333	Hitting_AVG	0.246	0.000	0.087	0.333
predicted_BB	0.350	1.000	1.000	Hitting_BB	0.350	0.000	0.650	1.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_H	0.650	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	0.750	0.000	0.250	1.000
predicted_HR	0.050	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.309	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.324	0.000	0.176	0.500
predicted_R	0.200	0.000	0.000	Hitting_R	0.200	0.000	-0.200	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.230	0.000	0.000	Hitting_RBI	0.250	0.000	-0.250	0.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.100	0.000	-0.100	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.392	0.333	0.333	Hitting_SLG	0.443	0.000	-0.109	0.333
predicted_SO	0.750	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.750	1.000	-0.750	-1.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.300	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	3.050	-
predicted_AVG	0.246	-
predicted_BB	0.350	-
predicted_H	0.650	-
predicted_HR	0.050	-
predicted_OBP	0.309	-
predicted_R	0.200	-
predicted_RBI	0.230	-
predicted_SLG	0.392	-
predicted_SO	0.750	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.271	-0.029
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.920	-0.130
predicted_AVG	0.246	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.294	-0.056
predicted_H	0.682	0.032
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.053	0.003
predicted_OBP	0.309	-0.000
predicted_R	0.117	-0.083
predicted_RBI	0.240	0.010
predicted_SLG	0.392	0.000
predicted_SO	0.837	0.087

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=3.05), rates preserved: AVG=0.224 HR/AB=0.017

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

5. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 20

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	14.000	3.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	5.000	0.2143	0.2667	0.2857	0.2143	0.0000	0.0714	0.0714	0.3571
last_10	0.35	10	-	28.000	8.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	1.000	3.000	8.000	0.2857	0.3548	0.5000	0.2857	0.0357	0.1071	0.1071	0.2857
season	0.20	20	-	61.000	15.000	6.000	2.000	5.000	4.000	7.000	15.000	0.2459	0.3235	0.4426	0.2459	0.0328	0.0820	0.1148	0.2459

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.2550
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.8500
predicted_AVG	0.2456
predicted_BB	0.2640
predicted_H	0.7000
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0540
predicted_OBP	0.3089
predicted_R	0.0730
predicted_RBI	0.2450
predicted_SLG	0.3921
predicted_SO	0.8830

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.3000	0.2550	0.2707	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	3.0500	2.8500	2.9200	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2460	0.2456	0.2457	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.3500	0.2640	0.2941	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.6500	0.7000	0.6825	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0500	0.0540	0.0526	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.3090	0.3089	0.3089	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.2000	0.0730	0.1174	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.2300	0.2450	0.2398	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.3920	0.3921	0.3921	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7500	0.8830	0.8365	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	20
Season rows before report date	20
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	20
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	3
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	0
RBI	0
BB	1
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.246

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	5
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	RF
gameID	20260503_SF@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	641584
playerID	641584
playerName	Jake Fraley
pos	RF
started	True
startingPosition	RF
team	TB
teamID	27

Richie Palacios (680700) · BATTER · 2B · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 17

All-history rows before 20260505: 17

System season_avg: 0.1860

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.1860

Diff (system - data): -0.0000

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.059	1.000	1.000	Hitting_2B	0.059	0.000	0.941	1.000
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.529	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	2.529	2.000	1.471	2.000
predicted_AVG	0.089	0.500	0.500	Hitting_AVG	0.186	0.000	0.314	0.500
predicted_BB	0.588	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.588	2.000	-0.588	-2.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.176	1.000	-0.176	-1.000
predicted_H	0.170	2.000	2.000	Hitting_H	0.471	0.000	1.529	2.000
predicted_HR	0.010	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.059	0.000	-0.059	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.293	0.500	0.500	Hitting_OBP	0.357	0.500	0.143	0.000
predicted_R	0.412	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.412	0.000	0.588	1.000
predicted_RBI	0.130	2.000	2.000	Hitting_RBI	0.235	0.000	1.765	2.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.176	0.000	-0.176	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.121	0.750	0.750	Hitting_SLG	0.279	0.000	0.471	0.750
predicted_SO	0.706	0.000	0.000	Hitting_SO	0.706	2.000	-0.706	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.059	-
predicted_3B	0.000	-
predicted_AB	2.529	-
predicted_AVG	0.089	-
predicted_BB	0.588	-
predicted_H	0.170	-
predicted_HR	0.010	-
predicted_OBP	0.293	-
predicted_R	0.412	-
predicted_RBI	0.130	-
predicted_SLG	0.121	-
predicted_SO	0.706	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.051	-0.008
predicted_3B	0.000	0.000
predicted_AB	2.589	0.060
predicted_AVG	0.089	0.000
predicted_BB	0.712	0.124
predicted_H	0.211	0.041
predicted_HBP	0.024	-
predicted_HR	0.011	0.001
predicted_OBP	0.293	-0.000
predicted_R	0.303	-0.109
predicted_RBI	0.158	0.028
predicted_SLG	0.121	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.976	0.270

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 3 (raw=2.59), rates preserved: AVG=0.081 HR/AB=0.004

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	3.000	-
BB	1.000	-
H	0.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=5.0, BvP AVG=0.400)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
H	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	3.000	0.000
BB	1.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	0.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	1.000	1.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	1.000
BB	0.000	-1.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	2.000	2.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	2.000	2.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	0.000	-1.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 17

Reference playing time: 3.807

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total HR	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	HR_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	13.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	1.000	5.000	7.000	0.0000	0.2632	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0769	0.3846	0.5385
last_10	0.35	10	-	27.000	4.000	1.000	0.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	10.000	0.1481	0.2941	0.1852	0.1482	0.0000	0.0370	0.2222	0.3704
season	0.20	17	-	43.000	8.000	1.000	1.000	4.000	7.000	10.000	12.000	0.1860	0.3571	0.2791	0.1860	0.0233	0.0930	0.2326	0.2791

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0460
predicted_3B	0.0000
predicted_AB	2.6210
predicted_AVG	0.0890
predicted_BB	0.7790
predicted_H	0.2330
predicted_HBP	0.0240
predicted_HR	0.0120
predicted_OBP	0.2928
predicted_R	0.2440
predicted_RBI	0.1730
predicted_SLG	0.1206
predicted_SO	1.1210

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0590	0.0460	0.0505	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	2.5290	2.6210	2.5888	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.0890	0.0890	0.0890	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.5880	0.7790	0.7122	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.1700	0.2330	0.2109	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0240	0.0240	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0100	0.0120	0.0113	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2930	0.2928	0.2929	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4120	0.2440	0.3028	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1300	0.1730	0.1579	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.1210	0.1206	0.1207	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.7060	1.1210	0.9758	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	17
Season rows before report date	17
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	17
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	2
2B	1
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	2
BB	0
SO	0
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.186

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	1
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	2
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	2
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	2
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	6
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	2B
gameID	20260502_SF@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	680700
playerID	680700
playerName	Richie Palacios
pos	2B
started	True
startingPosition	2B
team	TB
teamID	27

Chandler Simpson (802415) · BATTER · LF · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 32

All-history rows before 20260505: 32

System season_avg: 0.2920

Data season_avg (2026 season-to-date): 0.2923

Diff (system - data): -0.0003

System opponent_avg: -

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_2B	0.031	0.000	0.000	Hitting_2B	0.031	0.000	-0.031	0.000
predicted_3B	0.062	0.000	0.000	Hitting_3B	0.062	0.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_AB	4.062	4.000	4.000	Hitting_AB	4.062	4.000	-0.062	0.000
predicted_AVG	0.254	0.250	0.250	Hitting_AVG	0.292	0.250	-0.042	0.000
predicted_BB	0.219	0.000	0.000	Hitting_BB	0.219	0.000	-0.219	0.000
predicted_CS	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_CS	0.125	0.000	-0.125	0.000
predicted_H	0.950	1.000	1.000	Hitting_H	1.188	1.000	-0.188	0.000
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	Hitting_HR	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.277	0.250	0.250	Hitting_OBP	0.324	0.250	-0.074	0.000
predicted_R	0.438	1.000	1.000	Hitting_R	0.438	1.000	0.562	0.000
predicted_RBI	0.190	1.000	1.000	Hitting_RBI	0.188	0.000	0.812	1.000
predicted_SB	-	0.000	0.000	BaseRunning_SB	0.312	0.000	-0.312	0.000
predicted_SLG	0.271	0.250	0.250	Hitting_SLG	0.331	0.250	-0.081	0.000
predicted_SO	0.469	1.000	1.000	Hitting_SO	0.469	1.000	0.531	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

1. xgboost_raw

Raw model output with missing event categories filled from season-profile fallback

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.031	-
predicted_3B	0.062	-
predicted_AB	4.062	-
predicted_AVG	0.254	-
predicted_BB	0.219	-
predicted_H	0.950	-
predicted_HR	0.000	-
predicted_OBP	0.277	-
predicted_R	0.438	-
predicted_RBI	0.190	-
predicted_SLG	0.271	-
predicted_SO	0.469	-

2. weighted_recent_form_blend

Final model input calibrated with local form: 35% XGBoost raw, 65% weighted form. Weighted form uses 45% last 5 games, 35% last 10 games, 20% season.

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
predicted_2B	0.038	0.007
predicted_3B	0.029	-0.033
predicted_AB	3.984	-0.078
predicted_AVG	0.254	-0.000
predicted_BB	0.175	-0.044
predicted_H	0.983	0.033
predicted_HBP	0.000	-
predicted_HR	0.000	0.000
predicted_OBP	0.277	0.000
predicted_R	0.500	0.062
predicted_RBI	0.195	0.005
predicted_SLG	0.271	-0.000
predicted_SO	0.700	0.231

3. ab_floor_and_scaling

AB rounded to 4 (raw=4.06), rates preserved: AVG=0.242 HR/AB=0.000

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	-
3B	0.000	-
AB	4.000	-
BB	0.000	-
H	1.000	-
HBP	0.000	-
HR	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	-
SB	0.000	-
SO	1.000	-

4. bvp_blend

60% ML / 40% BvP blend (BvP AB=6.0, BvP AVG=0.500)

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
RBI	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

5. consistency_constraints

Enforced H<=AB, HR<=H, safety nets, derived R

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	-
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
R	0.000	-
RBI	0.000	0.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	-
SO	1.000	0.000

6. final_reconciliation

Synced finalized stats and predictions from simulation box score

Metric	Value	Delta vs Prev Step
2B	0.000	0.000
3B	0.000	0.000
AB	4.000	0.000
BB	0.000	0.000
CS	0.000	0.000
H	1.000	0.000
HBP	0.000	0.000
HR	0.000	0.000
PA	4.000	-
R	1.000	1.000
RBI	1.000	1.000
SB	0.000	0.000
SF	0.000	0.000
SO	1.000	0.000

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 32

Reference playing time: 4.062

Window	Weight	Games	Total PA	Total AB	Total H	Total 2B	Total 3B	Total RBI	Total R	Total BB	Total SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	H_per_AB	RBI_per_AB	BB_per_AB	SO_per_AB
last_5	0.45	5	-	20.000	5.000	0.000	0.000	1.000	3.000	0.000	5.000	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500	0.2500	0.0500	0.0000	0.2500
last_10	0.35	10	-	38.000	9.000	1.000	0.000	2.000	5.000	3.000	8.000	0.2368	0.2857	0.2632	0.2368	0.0526	0.0790	0.2105
season	0.20	32	-	130.000	38.000	1.000	2.000	6.000	14.000	7.000	15.000	0.2923	0.3237	0.3308	0.2923	0.0461	0.0539	0.1154

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_2B	0.0420
predicted_3B	0.0120
predicted_AB	3.9420
predicted_AVG	0.2538
predicted_BB	0.1510
predicted_H	1.0010
predicted_HBP	0.0000
predicted_HR	0.0000
predicted_OBP	0.2772
predicted_R	0.5330
predicted_RBI	0.1980
predicted_SLG	0.2708
predicted_SO	0.8250

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_2B	0.0310	0.0420	0.0382	model_form_blend
predicted_3B	0.0620	0.0120	0.0295	model_form_blend
predicted_AB	4.0620	3.9420	3.9840	model_form_blend
predicted_AVG	0.2540	0.2538	0.2539	model_form_blend
predicted_BB	0.2190	0.1510	0.1748	model_form_blend
predicted_H	0.9500	1.0010	0.9831	model_form_blend
predicted_HBP	-	0.0000	0.0000	form_only
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	model_form_blend
predicted_OBP	0.2770	0.2772	0.2771	model_form_blend
predicted_R	0.4380	0.5330	0.4998	model_form_blend
predicted_RBI	0.1900	0.1980	0.1952	model_form_blend
predicted_SLG	0.2710	0.2708	0.2709	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.4690	0.8250	0.7004	model_form_blend

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	32
Season rows before report date	32
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	32
Hitter metrics	Hitting_AB, Hitting_H, Hitting_HR, Hitting_RBI, Hitting_AVG, Hitting_OBP, Hitting_SLG, Hitting_BB, Hitting_SO, Hitting_2B, Hitting_3B, Hitting_R, BaseRunning_SB, BaseRunning_CS

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
PA	4
AB	4
H	1
2B	0
3B	0
HR	0
R	1
RBI	1
BB	0
SO	1
SF	0
HBP	0
season_avg	0.292

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	4
Hitting_AVG	0.25
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	1
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	1
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	1
Hitting_TB	1
Hitting_battingOrder	1
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	0
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	0
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.0
Pitching_Pitches	0
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	0
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	0
allPositionsPlayed	LF
gameID	20260504_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	802415
playerID	802415
playerName	Chandler Simpson
pos	LF
started	True
startingPosition	LF
team	TB
teamID	27

Drew Rasmussen (656876) · PITCHER · Starter · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 6

All-history rows before 20260505: 6

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	1.500	2.000	-1.500	-2.000
predicted_IP	5.000	5.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	5.033	5.000	-0.033	0.000
predicted_SO	4.000	4.000	-	Pitching_SO	5.333	6.000	-1.333	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 6

Reference playing time: 5.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	25.667	8.000	17.000	5.000	30.000	4.000	2.8052	0.8571	0.3117	0.6623	0.1948	1.1688	0.1558
last_10	0.35	6	30.667	9.000	21.000	5.000	32.000	5.000	2.6413	0.8478	0.2935	0.6848	0.1630	1.0435	0.1630
season	0.20	6	30.667	9.000	21.000	5.000	32.000	5.000	2.6413	0.8478	0.2935	0.6848	0.1630	1.0435	0.1630

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.9080
predicted_ER	1.5450
predicted_ERA	2.7151
predicted_H	3.4550
predicted_HR	0.8180
predicted_IP	5.1210
predicted_SO	5.6330
predicted_WHIP	0.8520

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.9080	0.5902	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	1.5450	1.0043	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	2.7151	2.7151	form_only
predicted_H	2.0000	3.4550	2.9458	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.8180	0.5317	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	5.0000	5.1210	5.0787	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	4.0000	5.6330	5.0615	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.8520	0.8520	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	6
Season rows before report date	6
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	6
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	5.0
H	2
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	4
HR	0
BF	17
Pitches	69

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	24
Pitching_ER	2
Pitching_ERA	2.64
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	8
Pitching_H	6
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	5.0
Pitching_Pitches	91
Pitching_R	3
Pitching_SO	6
Pitching_Strikes	65
Pitching_Wild Pitch	1
Pitching_decision	L
Pitching_pitchingOrder	1
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260429_TB@CLE
game_type	full
mlbID	656876
playerID	656876
playerName	Drew Rasmussen
pos	P
started	True
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

Bryan Baker (641329) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 15

All-history rows before 20260505: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.267	0.000	-0.267	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.880	0.100	0.120	0.900
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.000	0.000	-1.000	0.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 15

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	4.333	0.000	2.000	0.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	0.4615	0.0000	0.4615	0.0000	1.1539	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	8.667	3.000	6.000	3.000	8.000	0.000	3.1154	1.0385	0.3462	0.6923	0.3462	0.9231	0.0000
season	0.20	15	13.667	4.000	9.000	3.000	15.000	1.000	2.6341	0.8780	0.2927	0.6585	0.2195	1.0976	0.0732

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.1450
predicted_ER	0.1570
predicted_ERA	1.6172
predicted_H	0.5090
predicted_HR	0.0130
predicted_IP	0.8760
predicted_SO	0.9300
predicted_WHIP	0.7468

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.1450	0.0943	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1570	0.1021	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.6172	1.6172	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.5090	0.3309	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0130	0.0084	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	0.8760	0.9194	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	0.9300	0.6045	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	0.7468	0.7468	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	15
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	0
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	1
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.63
Pitching_Flyouts	1
Pitching_Groundouts	0
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	2
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	0.1
Pitching_Pitches	3
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	0
Pitching_Strikes	2
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	S
Pitching_pitchingOrder	6
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	641329
playerID	641329
playerName	Bryan Baker
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

Cole Sulser (642121) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 14

All-history rows before 20260505: 14

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.429	0.000	-0.429
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	1.250	1.000	-0.250
predicted_SO	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.071	1.000	-0.071

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.333	0.000	3.000	1.000	6.000	0.000	0.0000	0.7500	0.0000	0.5625	0.1875	1.1250	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.000	2.000	9.000	4.000	8.000	0.000	1.6364	1.1818	0.1818	0.8182	0.3636	0.7273	0.0000
season	0.20	14	18.667	6.000	19.000	8.000	15.000	1.000	2.8929	1.4464	0.3214	1.0179	0.4286	0.8036	0.0536

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.3370
predicted_ER	0.1450
predicted_ERA	1.1513
predicted_H	0.8410
predicted_HR	0.0120
predicted_IP	1.1320
predicted_SO	1.0430
predicted_WHIP	1.0404

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.3370	0.2191	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.1450	0.0943	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.1513	1.1513	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.8410	0.5466	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0120	0.0078	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.1320	1.0858	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	1.0000	1.0430	1.0279	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.0404	1.0404	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	14
Season rows before report date	14
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	0
SO	1
HR	0
BF	3
Pitches	13

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	3
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	2.89
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	0
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.0
Pitching_Pitches	10
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	1
Pitching_Strikes	6
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	4
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	642121
playerID	642121
playerName	Cole Sulser
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

Hunter Bigge (685801) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 9

All-history rows before 20260505: 9

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.444	0.000	-0.444	0.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.956	2.000	0.044	-1.000
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	0.889	3.000	-0.889	-3.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 9

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.667	3.000	4.000	4.000	6.000	0.000	4.7647	1.4118	0.5294	0.7059	0.7059	1.0588	0.0000
last_10	0.35	9	10.000	4.000	5.000	7.000	8.000	1.000	3.6000	1.2000	0.4000	0.5000	0.7000	0.8000	0.1000
season	0.20	9	10.000	4.000	5.000	7.000	8.000	1.000	3.6000	1.2000	0.4000	0.5000	0.7000	0.8000	0.1000

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7880
predicted_ER	0.5140
predicted_ERA	4.1241
predicted_H	0.6640
predicted_HR	0.0620
predicted_IP	1.1210
predicted_SO	1.0270
predicted_WHIP	1.2953

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	1.0000	0.7880	0.8622	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	0.0000	0.5140	0.3341	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	4.1241	4.1241	form_only
predicted_H	0.0000	0.6640	0.4316	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	0.0000	0.0620	0.0403	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.1210	1.0787	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.0270	0.6675	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.2953	1.2953	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	9
Season rows before report date	9
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	9
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	0
R	0
ER	0
BB	1
SO	0
HR	0
BF	4
Pitches	16

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	0
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	8
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	3.60
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	2.0
Pitching_Pitches	26
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	3
Pitching_Strikes	17
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260503_SF@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	685801
playerID	685801
playerName	Hunter Bigge
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27

Ian Seymour (693855) · PITCHER · Middle Reliever · Team TB

Player Historical Window (helpers): 75 games (system)

Player Historical Window (balancing): 162 games (system)

2026 rows before 20260505: 15

All-history rows before 20260505: 15

Metric-by-Metric Comparison

Metric	XGBoost Raw	Final Simulated Prediction	Pre-Sim Finalized	True Data Column	Historical Baseline	Latest Real Game	Final - Baseline	Final - Latest Real
predicted_ER	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_ER	0.667	0.000	0.333	1.000
predicted_IP	1.000	1.000	-	Pitching_InningsPitched	0.940	1.100	0.060	-0.100
predicted_SO	0.000	0.000	-	Pitching_SO	1.267	2.000	-1.267	-2.000

Prediction Evolution Trace (from JSON)

No step-by-step evolution found for this player.

Weighted Real-Data Form Profile

Blend weights: last 5=0.45, last 10=0.35, season=0.20

Rows used: 14

Reference playing time: 1.000

Window	Weight	Games	Total IP	Total ER	Total H	Total BB	Total SO	Total HR	ERA	WHIP	ER_per_IP	H_per_IP	BB_per_IP	SO_per_IP	HR_per_IP
last_5	0.45	5	5.000	0.000	3.000	4.000	5.000	0.000	0.0000	1.4000	0.0000	0.6000	0.8000	1.0000	0.0000
last_10	0.35	10	11.667	4.000	9.000	7.000	14.000	1.000	3.0857	1.3714	0.3429	0.7714	0.6000	1.2000	0.0857
season	0.20	14	16.667	5.000	12.000	7.000	19.000	1.000	2.7000	1.1400	0.3000	0.7200	0.4200	1.1400	0.0600

Weighted Prediction From Real Data

Metric	Value
predicted_BB	0.7170
predicted_ER	0.1970
predicted_ERA	1.6200
predicted_H	0.7500
predicted_HR	0.0460
predicted_IP	1.0960
predicted_SO	1.2040
predicted_WHIP	1.3380

Model/Form Calibration Trace

Metric	Model	Weighted Form	Final Model Input	Source
predicted_BB	0.0000	0.7170	0.4661	model_form_blend
predicted_ER	1.0000	0.1970	0.4780	model_form_blend
predicted_ERA	-	1.6200	1.6200	form_only
predicted_H	1.0000	0.7500	0.8375	model_form_blend
predicted_HR	1.0000	0.0460	0.3799	model_form_blend
predicted_IP	1.0000	1.0960	1.0624	model_form_blend
predicted_SO	0.0000	1.2040	0.7826	model_form_blend
predicted_WHIP	-	1.3380	1.3380	form_only

Model Data Source Trace

Trace Item	Value
Primary player source	data/all_players_stats.csv
Rolling form windows	last 5 games, last 10 games, season-to-date before report date
Blend formula	45% last 5 + 35% last 10 + 20% season
Model calibration	35% raw model + 65% weighted form
Rows before report date	15
Season rows before report date	15
Report year	2026
Profile rows used	14
Pitcher metrics	Pitching_InningsPitched, Pitching_ER, Pitching_SO, Pitching_H, Pitching_BB

Simulation Box Score (from JSON)

Simulation Box Score Field	Value
IP	1.0
H	1
R	1
ER	1
BB	0
SO	0
HR	1
BF	4
Pitches	12

Latest Real Data Snapshot (before report date)

Latest Real Data Column	Value
BaseRunning_CS	0
BaseRunning_PO	0
BaseRunning_SB	0
Fielding_E	0
Fielding_Outfield assists	0
Fielding_Passed Ball	0
Fielding_Pickoffs	0
Hitting_2B	0
Hitting_3B	0
Hitting_AB	0
Hitting_AVG	0.0
Hitting_BB	0
Hitting_GIDP	0
Hitting_H	0
Hitting_HBP	0
Hitting_HR	0
Hitting_IBB	0
Hitting_R	0
Hitting_RBI	0
Hitting_SAC	0
Hitting_SF	0
Hitting_SO	0
Hitting_TB	0
Hitting_battingOrder	0
Hitting_substitutionOrder	0
Pitching_BB	1
Pitching_Balk	0
Pitching_Batters Faced	7
Pitching_ER	0
Pitching_ERA	5.40
Pitching_Flyouts	0
Pitching_Groundouts	1
Pitching_H	2
Pitching_HBP	0
Pitching_HR	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners	0
Pitching_Inherited Runners Scored	0
Pitching_InningsPitched	1.1
Pitching_Pitches	28
Pitching_R	0
Pitching_SO	2
Pitching_Strikes	19
Pitching_Wild Pitch	0
Pitching_decision	H
Pitching_pitchingOrder	2
allPositionsPlayed	P
gameID	20260504_TOR@TB
game_type	full
mlbID	693855
playerID	693855
playerName	Ian Seymour
pos	P
started	False
startingPosition	P
team	TB
teamID	27